Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions

We propose a non-equidistant Q rate matrix formula and an adaptive numerical algorithm for a continuous time Markov chain to approximate jump-diffusions with affine or non-affine functional specifications. Our approach also accommodates state-dependent jump intensity and jump distribution, a flexibility that is very hard to achieve with other numerical methods. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test shows that the proposed Markov chain transition density converges to the one given by the likelihood expansion formula as in Ait-Sahalia (2008). We provide numerical examples for European stock option pricing in Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976) and Kou (2002).

The added value from a general equilibrium analyses of increased efficiency in household energy use

The aim of the paper is to identify the added value from using general equilibrium techniques to consider the economy-wide impacts of increased efficiency in household energy use. We take as an illustrative case study the effect of a 5% improvement in household energy efficiency on the UK economy. This impact is measured through simulations that use models that have increasing degrees of endogeneity but are calibrated on a common data set. That is to say, we calculate rebound effects for models that progress from the most basic partial equilibrium approach to a fully specified general equilibrium treatment. The size of the rebound effect on total energy use depends upon: the elasticity of substitution of energy in household consumption; the energy intensity of the different elements of household consumption demand; and the impact of changes in income, economic activity and relative prices. A general equilibrium model is required to capture these final three impacts.

Consumption Decisions When People Value Conformity

In this paper we assume that for some commodities individuals may wish to adjust their levels of consumption from their normal Marshallian levels so as to match the consumption levels of a group of other individuals, in order to signal that they conform to the consumption norms of that group. Unlike Veblen’s concept of conspicuous consumption this can mean that some individuals may reduce their consumption of the relevant commodities. We model this as a three-stage game in which individuals first decide whether or not they wish to adhere to a norm, then decide which norm they wish to adhere to, and finally decide their actual consumption. We present a number of examples of the resulting equilibria, and then discuss the potential policy implications of this model.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Expression of pSTAT5 predicts FLT3 internal tandem duplications in acute myeloid leukemia.

Mutations of the Fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) can be detected in a significant number of acute myeloid leukemias (AML). Seventy-five cases of acute myeloid leukemia were evaluated for FLT3-internal tandem duplications (ITD) by polymerase chain reaction. Paraffin-embedded formalin-fixed trephine biopsies of these cases were evaluated for expression of phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (pSTAT1), pSTAT3, and pSTAT5. Specific expression of pSTAT5 was proven in leukemic blasts in situ by double staining with a blast-specific marker. Expression of pSTAT5 in > or =1% of blasts was highly predictive of FLT3-ITD. Neither expression of pSTAT1 nor pSTAT3 were associated with FLT3 mutations. Altogether we conclude that pSTAT5 expression can precisely be assessed by immunohistochemistry in routinely processed bone marrow trephines, STAT5 is highly likely the preferred second messenger of FLT3-mediated signaling in AML, and expression of pSTAT5 is predictive of FLT3-ITD.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Human polymeric IgA is superior to IgG and single-chain Fv of the same monoclonal specificity to inhibit urease activity associated with Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter-induced gastritis is considered nowadays an epidemic, the prevalence of which is one of the highest world-wide (70%), with as much as 40% of the population in industrialized countries. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antigens (Ag) capable to elicit a protective immune response in animal models have been identified, but these antigens have not been shown to be strongly immunogenic when administered to humans. Due to their stability in the gastric environment and avidity, passive administration of secretory immunoglobulin A (SIgA) antibodies (Ab) targeting protective Ag might be particularly relevant as a substitute or complement to current therapies. To this aim, we have designed expression vectors to convert a scFv polypeptide specific for H. pylori urease subunit A into human IgG, polymeric IgA (IgAp/d) and SIgA. Purified proteins show proper binding characteristics toward both the native and denatured forms of H. pylori urease. The direct comparison between different isotype and molecular forms, but of unique specificity, demonstrates that SIgA and IgAp/d are more efficient in blocking free and H. pylori-associated urease than IgG and scFv. We conclude that the expression system reported herein will represent a valuable tool to produce human SIgA Ab of multiple specificities against H. pylori antigens involved in colonization and persistence.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the spine at 3-T: feasibility, optimization of b-value and utility to differentiate benign from pathological vertebral compression fractures

Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility, determine the optimal b-value, and assess the utility of 3-T diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) of the spine in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.Methods and Materials: Twenty patients with 38 vertebral compression fractures (24 benign, 14 pathologic) and 20 controls (total: 23 men, 17 women, mean age 56.2years) were included from December 2010 to May 2011 in this IRB-approved prospective study. MR imaging of the spine was performed on a 3-T unit with T1-w, fat-suppressed T2-w, gadolinium-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-w and zoomed-EPI (2D RF excitation pulse combined with reduced field-of-view single-shot echo-planar readout) diffusion-w (b-values: 0, 300, 500 and 700s/mm2) sequences. Two radiologists independently assessed zoomed-EPI image quality in random order using a 4-point scale: 1=excellent to 4=poor. They subsequently measured apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in normal vertebral bodies and compression fractures, in consensus.Results: Lower b-values correlated with better image quality scores, with significant differences between b=300 (mean±SD=2.6±0.8), b=500 (3.0±0.7) and b=700 (3.6±0.6) (all p<0.001). Mean ADCs of normal vertebral bodies (n=162) were 0.23, 0.17 and 0.11×10-3mm2/s with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. In contrast, mean ADCs were 0.89, 0.70 and 0.59×10-3mm2/s for benign vertebral compression fractures and 0.79, 0.66 and 0.51×10-3mm2/s for pathologic fractures with b=300, 500 and 700s/mm2, respectively. No significant difference was found between ADCs of benign and pathologic fractures.Conclusion: 3-T DWI of the spine is feasible and lower b-values (300s/mm2) are recommended. However, our preliminary results show no advantage of DWI in differentiating benign from pathologic vertebral compression fractures.

Expression of a functional single chain antibody on the surface of extracellular enveloped vaccinia virus as a step towards selective tumour cell targeting.

Recombinant vaccinia virus with tumour cell specificity may provide a versatile tool either for direct lysis of cancer cells or for the targeted transfer of genes encoding immunomodulatory molecules. We report the expression of a single chain antibody on the surface of extracellular enveloped vaccinia virus. The wild-type haemagglutinin, an envelope glycoprotein which is not required for viral infection and replication, was replaced by haemagglutinin fusion molecules carrying a single chain antibody directed against the tumour-associated antigen ErbB2. ErbB2 is an epidermal growth factor receptor-related tyrosine kinase overexpressed in a high percentage of human adenocarcinomas. Two fusion proteins carrying the single chain antibody at different NH2-terminal positions were expressed and exposed at the envelope of the corresponding recombinant viruses. The construct containing the antibody at the site of the immunoglobulin-like loop of the haemagglutinin was able to bind solubilized ErbB2. This is the first report of replacement of a vaccinia virus envelope protein by a specific recognition structure and represents a first step towards modifying the host cell tropism of the virus.

Alpha beta lineage-committed thymocytes can be rescued by the gamma delta T cell receptor (TCR) in the absence of TCR beta chain.

Commitment of the alpha beta and gamma delta T cell lineages within the thymus has been studied in T cell receptor (TCR)-transgenic and TCR mutant murine strains. TCR gamma delta-transgenic or TCR beta knockout mice, both of which are unable to generate TCR alpha beta-positive T cells, develop phenotypically alpha beta-like thymocytes in significant proportions. We provide evidence that in the absence of functional TCR beta protein, the gamma delta TCR can promote the development of alpha beta-like thymocytes, which, however, do not expand significantly and do not mature into gamma delta T cells. These results show that commitment to the alpha beta lineage can be determined independently of the isotype of the TCR, and suggest that alpha beta versus gamma delta T cell lineage commitment is principally regulated by mechanisms distinct from TCR-mediated selection. To accommodate our data and those reported previously on the effect of TCR gamma and delta gene rearrangements on alpha beta T cell development, we propose a model in which lineage commitment occurs independently of TCR gene rearrangement.