Initial distribution spread: A density forecasting approach

Ensemble forecasting of nonlinear systems involves the use of a model to run forward a discrete ensemble (or set) of initial states. Data assimilation techniques tend to focus on estimating the true state of the system, even though model error limits the value of such efforts. This paper argues for choosing the initial ensemble in order to optimise forecasting performance rather than estimate the true state of the system. Density forecasting and choosing the initial ensemble are treated as one problem. Forecasting performance can be quantified by some scoring rule. In the case of the logarithmic scoring rule, theoretical arguments and empirical results are presented. It turns out that, if the underlying noise dominates model error, we can diagnose the noise spread.

Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control

In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes.

Determination of the density of the multiple access interference of a CDMA system from its moments

A standard CDMA system is considered and an extension of Pearson's results is used to determine the density function of the interference. The method is shown to work well in some cases, but not so in others. However this approach can be useful in further determining the probability of error of the system with minimal computational requirements.

Sampling series for determination of probability density of CDMA multiple access interference

Consideration is given to a standard CDMA system and determination of the density function of the interference with and without Gaussian noise using sampling theory concepts. The formula derived provides fast and accurate results and is a simple, useful alternative to other methods

Oxidation of low density lipoprotein by iron at lysosomal pH: implications for atherosclerosis

Low density lipoprotein (LDL) has recently been shown to be oxidised by iron within the lysosomes of macrophages and this is a novel potential mechanism for LDL oxidation in atherosclerosis. Our aim was to characterise the chemical and physical changes induced in LDL by iron at lysosomal pH and to investigate the effects of iron chelators and α-tocopherol on this process. LDL was oxidised by iron at pH 4.5 and 37°C and its oxidation monitored by spectrophotometry and HPLC. LDL was oxidised effectively by FeSO4 (5-50 µM) and became highly aggregated at pH 4.5, but not at pH 7.4. Cholesteryl esters decreased and after a pronounced lag 7-ketocholesterol increased greatly. Total hydroperoxides (measured by tri-iodide assay) increased up to 24 h and then decreased only slowly. The lipid composition after 12 h at pH 4.5 and 37°C was similar to that of LDL oxidised by copper at pH 7.4 and 4°C, i.e. rich in hydroperoxides but low in oxysterols. Previously oxidised LDL aggregated rapidly and spontaneously at pH 4.5, but not at pH 7.4. Ferrous was much more effective than ferric iron at oxidising LDL when added after the oxidation was already underway. The iron chelators diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid and, to a lesser extent, desferrioxamine inhibited LDL oxidation when added during its initial stages, but were unable to prevent LDL aggregating after it had been partially oxidised. Surprisingly, desferrioxamine increased the rate of LDL modification when added late in the oxidation process. α-Tocopherol enrichment of LDL initially increased the oxidation of LDL, but inhibited it later. The presence of oxidised and highly aggregated lipid within lysosomes has the potential to perturb the function of these organelles and to promote atherosclerosis.

Effects of oxidised low density lipoprotein on dendritic cells: a possible immunoregulatory component of the atherogenic micro-environment?

Objective: The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between low density lipoprotein (LDL) and dendritic cell (DC) activation, based upon the hypothesis that reactive oxygen species (ROS)-mediated modification of proteins that may be present in local DC microenvironments could be important as mediators of this activation. Although LDL are known to be oxidised in vivo, and taken up by macrophages during atherogenesis; their effect on DC has not been explored previously. Methods: Human DCs were prepared from peripheral blood monocytes using GM-CSF and IL-4. Plasma LDLs were isolated by sequential gradient centrifugation, oxidised in CuSO4, and oxidation arrested to yield mild, moderate and highly oxidised LDL forms. DCs exposed to these LDLs were investigated using combined phenotypic, functional (autologous T cell activation), morphological and viability assays. Results: Highly-oxidised LDL increased DC HLA-DR, CD40 and CD86 expression, corroborated by increased DC-induced T cell proliferation. Both native and oxidised LDL induced prominent DC clustering. However, high concentrations of highly-oxidised LDL inhibited DC function, due to increased DC apoptosis. Conclusions: This study supports the hypothesis that oxidised LDL are capable of triggering the transition from sentinel to messenger DC. Furthermore, the DC clustering–activation–apoptosis sequence in the presence of different LDL forms is consistent with a regulatory DC role in immunopathogenesis of atheroma. A sequence of initial accumulation of DC, increasing LDL oxidation, and DC-induced T cell activation, may explain why local breach of tolerance can occur. Above a threshold level, however, supervening DC apoptosis limits this, contributing instead to the central plaque core.

Unraveling the electronic structures of low-valent naphthalene and anthracene iron complexes: x-ray, spectroscopic, and density functional theory studies

Naphthalene and anthracene transition metalates are potent reagents, but their electronic structures have remained poorly explored. A study of four Cp*-substituted iron complexes (Cp* = pentamethylcyclopentadienyl) now gives rare insight into the bonding features of such species. The highly oxygen- and water-sensitive compounds [K(18-crown- 6){Cp*Fe(η4-C10H8)}] (K1), [K(18-crown-6){Cp*Fe(η4-C14H10)}] (K2), [Cp*Fe(η4-C10H8)] (1), and [Cp*Fe(η4-C14H10)] (2) were synthesized and characterized by NMR, UV−vis, and 57Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. The paramagnetic complexes 1 and 2 were additionally characterized by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy and magnetic susceptibility measurements. The molecular structures of complexes K1, K2, and 2 were determined by single-crystal X-ray crystallography. Cyclic voltammetry of 1 and 2 and spectroelectrochemical experiments revealed the redox properties of these complexes, which are reversibly reduced to the monoanions [Cp*Fe(η4-C10H8)]− (1−) and [Cp*Fe(η4-C14H10)]− (2−) and reversibly oxidized to the cations [Cp*Fe(η6-C10H8)]+ (1+) and [Cp*Fe(η6-C14H10)]+ (2+). Reduced orbital charges and spin densities of the naphthalene complexes 1−/0/+ and the anthracene derivatives 2−/0/+ were obtained by density functional theory (DFT) methods. Analysis of these data suggests that the electronic structures of the anions 1− and 2− are best represented by low-spin FeII ions coordinated by anionic Cp* and dianionic naphthalene and anthracene ligands. The electronic structures of the neutral complexes 1 and 2 may be described by a superposition of two resonance configurations which, on the one hand, involve a low-spin FeI ion coordinated by the neutral naphthalene or anthracene ligand L, and, on the other hand, a low-spin FeII ion coordinated to a ligand radical L•−. Our study thus reveals the redox noninnocent character of the naphthalene and anthracene ligands, which effectively stabilize the iron atoms in a low formal, but significantly higher spectroscopic oxidation state.

Allosteric mechanism controls traffic in the chaperone/usher pathway

Many virulence organelles of Gram-negative bacterial pathogens are assembled via the chaperone/ usher pathway. The chaperone transports organelle subunits across the periplasm to the outer membrane usher, where they are released and incorporated into growing fibers. Here, we elucidate the mechanism of the usher-targeting step in assembly of the Yersinia pestis F1 capsule at the atomic level. The usher interacts almost exclusively with the chaperone in the chaperone:subunit complex. In free chaperone, a pair of conserved proline residues at the beginning of the subunit-binding loop form a ‘‘proline lock’’ that occludes the usher-binding surface and blocks usher binding. Binding of the subunit to the chaperone rotates the proline lock away from the usher-binding surface, allowing the chaperone-subunit complex to bind to the usher. We show that the proline lock exists in other chaperone/usher systems and represents a general allosteric mechanism for selective targeting of chaperone:subunit complexes to the usher and for release and recycling of the free chaperone.

Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake

The efficiency with which the oceans take up heat has a significant influence on the rate of global warming. Warming of the ocean above 700 m over the past few decades has been well documented. However, most of the ocean lies below 700 m. Here we analyse observations of heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. We find that the extratropical North Atlantic as a whole warmed by 1.45±0.5×1022 J between 1955 and 2005, but Lower North Atlantic Deep Water cooled, most likely as an adjustment from an early twentieth-century warm period. In contrast, the heat content of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water exhibited strong decadal variability. We demonstrate and quantify the importance of density-compensated temperature anomalies for long-term heat uptake into the deep North Atlantic. These anomalies form in the subpolar gyre and propagate equatorwards. High salinity in the subpolar gyre is a key requirement for this mechanism. In the past 50 years, suitable conditions have occurred only twice: first during the 1960s and again during the past decade. We conclude that heat uptake through density-compensated temperature anomalies will contribute to deep ocean heat uptake in the near term. In the longer term, the importance of this mechanism will be determined by competition between the multiple processes that influence subpolar gyre salinity in a changing climate.

Synthesis, chemical, electrochemical characterization of oxomolybdenum(V) complexes of 2-(3,5-dimethyl pyrazol-1-yl) benzothiazole ligand: crystal structure of ligand and oxomolybdenum(VI) complex and density functional theory (DFT) calculation

This work reports the ligational behavior of the neutral bidentate chelating molecule 2-(3,5-dimethyl pyrazol-1-yl) benzothiazole towards the oxomolybdenum(V) center. Both mononuclear complexes of the type (MoOX3L)-O-V and binuclear complexes of the formula (Mo2O4X2L2)-O-V (where X = Cl, Br) are isolated in the solid state. The complexes are characterized by elemental analyses, various spectroscopic techniques (UV-Vis IR), magnetic susceptibility measurement at room temperature, and cyclic voltammetry for their redox behavior at a platinum electrode in CH3CN. The mononuclear complexes (MoOX3L)-O-V are found to be paramagnetic while the binuclear complexes Mo2O4X2L2 are diamagnetic. Crystal and molecular structure of the ligand and the dioxomolybdenum complex (MoO2Br2L)-O-VI (obtained from the complex MoOBr3L during crystallization) have been solved by single crystal X-ray diffraction technique. Relevant DFT calculations of the ligand and the complex (MoO2Br2L)-O-VI are also carried out.