A Study on the Use of Castor Oil as Plasticizer in Natural Rubber Compounds

Mechanical properties and thermal degradation of natural rubber compounds containing castor oil were studied to evaluate its suitability as plasticizer. Naphthenic oil was used as a reference plasticizer. The cure time was marginally lower in the case of castor oil mixes, probably due to the presence offree fatty acids in it. The tear strength and modulus were better in the case of mixes containing castor oil, while most of the other mechanical properties were comparable to the mixes containing naphthenic oil. The heat build up and compression set were higher than that of the naphthenic oil mixes. Thermal studies showed an increase of 8 °C in the temperature of initiation of degradation and an increase of 6 °C in the temperature at which the peak rate of degradation occurred. The peak rate of degradation was comparable to that of the reference compound

A Study on the Use of Coconut Oil as Plasticiser in Natural Rubber Compounds

Mechanical properties and thermal degradation characteristics of natural rubber compounds captaining coconut oil were compared with that of a control compound containing naphthenic oil. Cure time was marginally lower in the case of coconut oil mixes, probably due to the presence of free fatty acids. Tensile strength , tear strength, resilience and abrasion resistance were better than the naphthenic oil-based compounds . Compression set and hardness were marginally inferior The coconut oil mixes had a crosslink density comparable to that of the reference compound. Thermal studies showed that the temperature of initiation of degradation was increased by 10°C and the temperature at which the peak rate of degradation occured was increased by 7°C. The peak rate of degradation was compa rable to the control compound.

Dynamics of Land Use in Recently Settled Forest Areas: a Case Study of Attappady , Kerala

The present study on the dynamics of land use in recently settled forest areas. In the course of events, tribals lost their land; the demographic structure of Attappady changed; the cropping pattern got diversified; traditional techniques of production were ruined; new crops and new techniques of cultivation came to stay; and the entire cost and return structure of production underwent radical change. Migration to Attappady is essentially a continuation of the Malabar migration process from Travancore, through, some people from Tamil Nadu also had migrated to this region earlier. The demographic structure, along with land structure, has changed in favour of the settlers within a short span of time. Lack of security of ownership has acted as a strong reason for wanton exploitation of land resources. The major influencing factors on crop choices among settlers were labour endowment, date of settlement and education. Attappady is an unique ecosystem in Kerala characterized by many interdependables. The latest hand of environmental degradation is a grave danger especially on sloppy terrains,which are under cultivation of tapioca and dry annual crops like groundnuts, cotton, grams etc. Soil erosion as a result of the unplanned cultivation of these crops has resulted in dramatic decline in soil fertility and hence low crop productivity. This calls for a watershed management approach for the sustainable development of the region. A progressive agrarian transformation is warranted to maintain the homegarden as a sustainable production system in ecological and socio-economic terms.

Permutation entropy based real-time chatter detection using audio signal in turning process

Machine tool chatter is an unfavorable phenomenon during metal cutting, which results in heavy vibration of cutting tool. With increase in depth of cut, the cutting regime changes from chatter-free cutting to one with chatter. In this paper, we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), a conceptually simple and computationally fast measurement to detect the onset of chatter from the time series using sound signal recorded with a unidirectional microphone. PE can efficiently distinguish the regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Under situations where the data sets are huge and there is no time for preprocessing and fine-tuning, PE can effectively detect dynamical changes of the system. This makes PE an ideal choice for online detection of chatter, which is not possible with other conventional nonlinear methods. In the present study, the variation of PE under two cutting conditions is analyzed. Abrupt variation in the value of PE with increase in depth of cut indicates the onset of chatter vibrations. The results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the nonlinear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

Some bivariate life time models in discrete time"

The term reliability of an equipment or device is often meant to indicate the probability that it carries out the functions expected of it adequately or without failure and within specified performance limits at a given age for a desired mission time when put to use under the designated application and operating environmental stress. A broad classification of the approaches employed in relation to reliability studies can be made as probabilistic and deterministic, where the main interest in the former is to device tools and methods to identify the random mechanism governing the failure process through a proper statistical frame work, while the latter addresses the question of finding the causes of failure and steps to reduce individual failures thereby enhancing reliability. In the probabilistic attitude to which the present study subscribes to, the concept of life distribution, a mathematical idealisation that describes the failure times, is fundamental and a basic question a reliability analyst has to settle is the form of the life distribution. It is for no other reason that a major share of the literature on the mathematical theory of reliability is focussed on methods of arriving at reasonable models of failure times and in showing the failure patterns that induce such models. The application of the methodology of life time distributions is not confined to the assesment of endurance of equipments and systems only, but ranges over a wide variety of scientific investigations where the word life time may not refer to the length of life in the literal sense, but can be concieved in its most general form as a non-negative random variable. Thus the tools developed in connection with modelling life time data have found applications in other areas of research such as actuarial science, engineering, biomedical sciences, economics, extreme value theory etc.

Investigations on Stochastic Storage Systems with Positive Service Time

In this thesis the queueing-inventory models considered are analyzed as continuous time Markov chains in which we use the tools such as matrix analytic methods. We obtain the steady-state distributions of various queueing-inventory models in product form under the assumption that no customer joins the system when the inventory level is zero. This is despite the strong correlation between the number of customers joining the system and the inventory level during lead time. The resulting quasi-birth-anddeath (QBD) processes are solved explicitly by matrix geometric methods

Studies on the use of Nanokaolin, MWCNT and Graphene in NBR and SBR

The current research investigates the possibility of using unmodified and modified nanokaolin, multiwalled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) and graphene as fillers to impart enhancement in mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties to the elastomers. Taking advantage of latex blending method, nanoclay, MWCNT and graphene dispersions, prepared by ultra sound sonication are dispersed in polymer latices. The improvement in material properties indicated better interaction between filler and the polymer.MWCNT and graphene imparted electrical conductivity with simultaneous improvement in mechanical properties. Layered silicates prepared by microwave method also significantly improve the mechanical properties of the nanocomposites. The thesis entitled ‘Studies on the use of Nanokaolin, MWCNT and Graphene in NBR and SBR’ consists of ten chapters. The first chapter is a concise introduction of nanocomposites, nanofillers, elastomeric matrices and applications of polymer nanocomposites. The state-of-art research in elastomer based nanocomposites is also presented. At the end of this chapter the main objectives of the work are mentioned. Chapter 2 outlines the specifications of various materials used, details of experimental techniques employed for preparing and characterizing nanocomposites. Chapter3 includes characterization of the nanofillers, optimsation of cure time of latex based composites and the methods used for the preparation of latex based and dry rubber based nanocomposites. Chapter4 presents the reinforcing effect of the nanofillers in XNBR latex and the characterization of the nanocomposites. Chapter5 comprises the effect of nanofillers on the properties of SBR latex and their characterization Chapter 6 deals with the study of cure characteristics, mechanical and thermal properties and the characterization of NBR based nanocomposites. Chapter7 is the microwave studies of MWCNT and graphene filled elastomeric nanocomposites. Chapter 8 gives details of the preparation of layered silicates, their characterization and use in different elastomeric matrices. Chapter 9 is the study of mechanical properties of nanoclay incorporated nitrile gloves .Chapter 10 presents the summary and conclusions of the investigation.

Composition and stability of organic matter fractions in soils under different land use regimes

Soil organic matter (SOM) vitally impacts all soil functions and plays a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle. More than 70% of the terrestric C stocks that participate in the active C cycle are stored in the soil. Therefore, quantitative knowledge of the rates of C incorporation into SOM fractions of different residence time is crucial to understand and predict the sequestration and stabilization of soil organic carbon (SOC). Consequently, there is a need of fractionation procedures that are capable of isolating functionally SOM fractions, i.e. fractions that are defined by their stability. The literature generally refers to three main mechanisms of SOM stabilization: protection of SOM from decomposition by (i) its structural composition, i.e. recalcitrance, (ii) spatial inaccessibility and/or (iii) interaction with soil minerals and metal ions. One of the difficulties in developing fractionation procedures for the isolation of functional SOM fractions is the marked heterogeneity of the soil environment with its various stabilization mechanisms – often several mechanisms operating simultaneously – in soils and soil horizons of different texture and mineralogy. The overall objective of the present thesis was to evaluate present fractionation techniques and to get a better understanding of the factors of SOM sequestration and stabilization. The first part of this study is attended to the structural composition of SOM. Using 13C cross-polarization magic-angle spinning (CPMAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, (i) the effect of land use on SOM composition was investigated and (ii) examined whether SOM composition contributes to the different stability of SOM in density and aggregate fractions. The second part of the present work deals with the mineral-associated SOM fraction. The aim was (iii) to evaluate the suitability of chemical fractionation procedures used in the literature for the isolation of stable SOM pools (stepwise hydrolysis, treatments using oxidizing agents like Na2S2O8, H2O2, and NaOCl as well as demineralization of the residue obtained by the NaOCl treatment using HF (NaOCl+HF)) by pool sizes, 13C and 14C data. Further, (iv) the isolated SOM fractions were compared to the inert organic matter (IOM) pool obtained for the investigated soils using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data in order to see whether the tested chemical fractionation methods produce SOM fractions capable to represent this pool. Besides chemical fractionation, (v) the suitability of thermal oxidation at different temperatures for obtaining stable SOC pools was evaluated. Finally, (vi) the short-term aggregate dynamics and the factors that impact macroaggregate formation and C stabilization were investigated by means of an incubation study using treatments with and without application of 15N labeled maize straw of different degradability (leaves and coarse roots). All treatments were conducted with and without the addition of fungicide. Two study sites with different soil properties and land managements were chosen for these investigations. The first one, located at Rotthalmünster, is a Stagnic Luvisol (silty loam) under different land use regimes. The Ah horizons of a spruce forest and continuous grassland and the Ap and E horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and wheat cropping) were examined. The soil of the second study site, located at Halle, is a Haplic Phaeozem (loamy sand) where the Ap horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and rye cropping) were investigated. Both study sites had a C3-/C4-vegetational change on the maize plot for the purpose of tracing the incorporation of the younger, maize-derived C into different SOM fractions and the calculation of apparent C turnover times of these. The Halle site is located near a train station and industrial areas, which caused a contamination with high amounts of fossil C. The investigation of aggregate and density fractions by 13C CPMAS NMR spectroscopy revealed that density fractionation isolated SOM fractions of different composition. The consumption of a considerable part (10–20%) of the easily available O-alkyl-C and the selective preservation of the more recalcitrant alkyl-C when passing from litter to the different particulate organic matter (POM) fractions suggest that density fractionation was able to isolate SOM fractions with different degrees of decomposition. The spectra of the aggregate fractions resembled those of the mineral-associated SOM fraction obtained by density fractionation and no considerable differences were observed between aggregate size classes. Comparison of plant litter, density and aggregate size fractions from soil under different land use showed that the type of land use markedly influenced the composition of SOM. While SOM of the acid forest soil was characterized by a large content (> 50%) of POM, which contained high amounts of spruce-litter derived alkyl-C, the organic matter in the biologically more active grassland and arable soils was dominated by mineral-associated SOM (> 95%). This SOM fraction comprised greater proportions of aryl- and carbonyl-C and is considered to contain a higher amount of microbially-derived organic substances. Land use can alter both, structure and stability of SOM fractions. All applied chemical treatments induced considerable SOC losses (> 70–95% of mineral-associated SOM) in the investigated soils. The proportion of residual C after chemical fractionation was largest in the arable Ap and E horizons and increased with decreasing C content in the initial SOC after stepwise hydrolysis as well as after the oxidative treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8. This can be expected for a functional stable pool of SOM, because it is assumed that the more easily available part of SOC is consumed first if C inputs decrease. All chemical treatments led to a preferential loss of the younger, maize-derived SOC, but this was most pronounced after the treatments with Na2S2O8 and H2O2. After all chemical fractionations, the mean 14C ages of SOC were higher than in the mineral-associated SOM fraction for both study sites and increased in the order: NaOCl < NaOCl+HF ≤ stepwise hydrolysis << H2O2 ≈ Na2S2O8. The results suggest that all treatments were capable of isolating a more stable SOM fraction, but the treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8 were the most efficient ones. However, none of the chemical fractionation methods was able to fit the IOM pool calculated using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data. In the evaluation of thermal oxidation for obtaining stable C fractions, SOC losses increased with temperature from 24–48% (200°C) to 100% (500°C). In the Halle maize Ap horizon, losses of the young, maize-derived C were considerably higher than losses of the older C3-derived C, leading to an increase in the apparent C turnover time from 220 years in mineral-associated SOC to 1158 years after thermal oxidation at 300°C. Most likely, the preferential loss of maize-derived C in the Halle soil was caused by the presence of the high amounts of fossil C mentioned above, which make up a relatively large thermally stable C3-C pool in this soil. This agrees with lower overall SOC losses for the Halle Ap horizon compared to the Rotthalmünster Ap horizon. In the Rotthalmünster soil only slightly more maize-derived than C3-derived SOC was removed by thermal oxidation. Apparent C turnover times increased slightly from 58 years in mineral-associated SOC to 77 years after thermal oxidation at 300°C in the Rotthalmünster Ap and from 151 to 247 years in the Rotthalmünster E horizon. This led to the conclusion that thermal oxidation of SOM was not capable of isolating SOM fractions of considerably higher stability. The incubation experiment showed that macroaggregates develop rapidly after the addition of easily available plant residues. Within the first four weeks of incubation, the maximum aggregation was reached in all treatments without addition of fungicide. The formation of water-stable macroaggregates was related to the size of the microbial biomass pool and its activity. Furthermore, fungi were found to be crucial for the development of soil macroaggregates as the formation of water-stable macroaggregates was significantly delayed in the fungicide treated soils. The C concentration in the obtained aggregate fractions decreased with decreasing aggregate size class, which is in line with the aggregate hierarchy postulated by several authors for soils with SOM as the major binding agent. Macroaggregation involved incorporation of large amounts maize-derived organic matter, but macroaggregates did not play the most important role in the stabilization of maize-derived SOM, because of their relatively low amount (less than 10% of the soil mass). Furthermore, the maize-derived organic matter was quickly incorporated into all aggregate size classes. The microaggregate fraction stored the largest quantities of maize-derived C and N – up to 70% of the residual maize-C and -N were stored in this fraction.

Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Navier-Stokes Equations with Time Delay

In the present paper we use a time delay epsilon > 0 for an energy conserving approximation of the nonlinear term of the non-stationary Navier-Stokes equations. We prove that the corresponding initial value problem (N_epsilon)in smoothly bounded domains G \subseteq R^3 is well-posed. Passing to the limit epsilon \rightarrow 0 we show that the sequence of stabilized solutions has an accumulation point such that it solves the Navier-Stokes problem (N_0) in a weak sense (Hopf).

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Time Discretization of the SST-generalized Navier-Stokes Equations: Positive and Negative Results

In the theory of the Navier-Stokes equations, the proofs of some basic known results, like for example the uniqueness of solutions to the stationary Navier-Stokes equations under smallness assumptions on the data or the stability of certain time discretization schemes, actually only use a small range of properties and are therefore valid in a more general context. This observation leads us to introduce the concept of SST spaces, a generalization of the functional setting for the Navier-Stokes equations. It allows us to prove (by means of counterexamples) that several uniqueness and stability conjectures that are still open in the case of the Navier-Stokes equations have a negative answer in the larger class of SST spaces, thereby showing that proof strategies used for a number of classical results are not sufficient to affirmatively answer these open questions. More precisely, in the larger class of SST spaces, non-uniqueness phenomena can be observed for the implicit Euler scheme, for two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, for the fractional step theta scheme, and for the SST-generalized stationary Navier-Stokes equations. As far as stability is concerned, a linear version of the Euler scheme, a nonlinear version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme turn out to be non-stable in the class of SST spaces. The positive results established in this thesis include the generalization of classical uniqueness and stability results to SST spaces, the uniqueness of solutions (under smallness assumptions) to two nonlinear versions of the Euler scheme, two nonlinear versions of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and the fractional step theta scheme for general SST spaces, the second order convergence of a version of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, and a new proof of the first order convergence of the implicit Euler scheme for the Navier-Stokes equations. For each convergence result, we provide conditions on the data that guarantee the existence of nonstationary solutions satisfying the regularity assumptions needed for the corresponding convergence theorem. In the case of the Crank-Nicolson scheme, this involves a compatibility condition at the corner of the space-time cylinder, which can be satisfied via a suitable prescription of the initial acceleration.

An integrated assessment of resource use strategies in the Borana pastoral system of southern Ethiopia

In the pastoral production systems, mobility remains the main technique used to meet livestock’s fodder requirements. Currently, with growing challenges on the pastoral production systems, there is urgent need for an in-depth understanding of how pastoralists continue to manage their grazing resources and how they determine their mobility strategies. This study examined the Borana pastoralists’ regulation of access to grazing resources, mobility practices and cattle reproductive performances in three pastoral zones of Borana region of southern Ethiopia. The central objective of the study was to contribute to the understanding of pastoral land use strategies at a scale relevant to their management. The study applied a multi-scalar methodological approach that allowed zooming in from communal to individual herd level. Through participatory mapping that applied Google Earth image print out as visual aid, the study revealed that the Borana pastoralists conceptualized their grazing areas as distinctive grazing units with names, borders, and specific characteristics. This knowledge enables the herders to communicate the condition of grazing resources among themselves in a precise way which is important in management of livestock mobility. Analysis of grazing area use from the participatory maps showed that the Borana pastoralists apportion their grazing areas into categories that are accessed at different times of the year (temporal use areas). This re-organization is an attempt by the community to cope with the prevailing constraints which results in fodder shortages especially during the dry periods. The re-organization represents a shift in resource use system, as the previous mobility practice across the ecologically varied zones of the rangelands became severely restricted. Grazing itineraries of 91 cattle herds for over 16 months obtained using the seasonal calendar interviews indicated that in the areas with the severest mobility constraints, the herders spent most of their time in the year round use areas that are within close proximity to the settlements. A significant change in mobility strategy was the disallowing of foora practice by the communities in Dirre and Malbe zones in order to reduce competition. With the reduction in mobility practices, there is a general decline in cattle reproductive parameters with the areas experiencing the severest constraints showing the least favourable reproductive performances. The study concludes that the multi-scalar methodology was well suited to zoom into pastoral grazing management practices from communal to individual herd levels. Also the loss of mobility in the Borana pastoral system affects fulfilment of livestock feed requirements thus resulting in reduced reproductive performances and herd growth potentials. While reversal of the conditions of the situations in the Borana rangelands is practically unfeasible, the findings from this research underscore the need to protect the remaining pastoral lands since the pastoral production system remains the most important livelihood option for the majority of the Borana people. In this regards the study emphasises the need to adopt and domesticate regional and international policy frameworks such as that proposed by the African Union in 2010.

Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants