Voter Participation in the 1998 Bundestag Elections: A Theoretical Modification and Empirical Application of Downs’ Theory of Voter Participation

This article seeks to contribute to the illumination of the so-called 'paradox of voting' using the German Bundestag elections of 1998 as an empirical case. Downs' model of voter participation will be extended to include elements of the theory of subjective expected utility (SEU). This will allow a theoretical and empirical exploration of the crucial mechanisms of individual voters' decisions to participate, or abstain from voting, in the German general election of 1998. It will be argued that the infinitely low probability of an individual citizen's vote to decide the election outcome will not necessarily reduce the probability of electoral participation. The empirical analysis is largely based on data from the ALLBUS 1998. It confirms the predictions derived from SEU theory. The voters' expected benefits and their subjective expectation to be able to influence government policy by voting are the crucial mechanisms to explain participation. By contrast, the explanatory contribution of perceived information and opportunity costs is low.

A Restriction-Centered Theory of Reasoning and Computation to materialize a Web 3.0

Researchers suggest that personalization on the Semantic Web adds up to a Web 3.0 eventually. In this Web, personalized agents process and thus generate the biggest share of information rather than humans. In the sense of emergent semantics, which supplements traditional formal semantics of the Semantic Web, this is well conceivable. An emergent Semantic Web underlying fuzzy grassroots ontology can be accomplished through inducing knowledge from users' common parlance in mutual Web 2.0 interactions [1]. These ontologies can also be matched against existing Semantic Web ontologies, to create comprehensive top-level ontologies. On the Web, if augmented with information in the form of restrictions andassociated reliability (Z-numbers) [2], this collection of fuzzy ontologies constitutes an important basis for an implementation of Zadeh's restriction-centered theory of reasoning and computation (RRC) [3]. By considering real world's fuzziness, RRC differs from traditional approaches because it can handle restrictions described in natural language. A restriction is an answer to a question of the value of a variable such as the duration of an appointment. In addition to mathematically well-defined answers, RRC can likewise deal with unprecisiated answers as "about one hour." Inspired by mental functions, it constitutes an important basis to leverage present-day Web efforts to a natural Web 3.0. Based on natural language information, RRC may be accomplished with Z-number calculation to achieve a personalized Web reasoning and computation. Finally, through Web agents' understanding of natural language, they can react to humans more intuitively and thus generate and process information.

An examination of the Gonorrhea Cases & Places Study: An analysis of the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory as it relates to risky sexual behavior in African American adults

Objective. The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic depiction of behavioral & environmental factors contributing to risky sexual behaviors among predominantly high school educated, low-income African Americans residing in urban areas of Houston, TX utilizing the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted via questionnaires among 215 Houston area residents, 149 were women and 66 were male. Measures used to assess behaviors of the population included a history of homelessness, use of crack/cocaine among several other illicit drugs, the type of sexual partner, age of participant, age of most recent sex partner, whether or not participants sought health care in the last 12 months, knowledge of partner's other sexual activities, symptoms of depression, and places where partner's were met. In an effort to determine risk of sexual encounters, a risk index employing the variables used to assess condom use was created categorizing sexual encounters as unsafe or safe. Results. Variables meeting the significance level of p<.15 for the bivariate analysis of each theory were entered into a binary logistic regression analysis. The block for each theory was significant, suggesting that the grouping assignments of each variable by theory were significantly associated with unsafe sexual behaviors. Within the regression analysis, variables such as sex for drugs/money, low income, and crack use demonstrated an effect size of ≥ ± 1, indicating that these variables had a significant effect on unsafe sexual behavioral practices. Conclusions. Variables assessing behavior and environment demonstrated a significant effect when categorized by relation to designated theories.

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Outline of a theory of efficient teams in Sport.

Introduction So far, social psychology in sport has preliminary focused on team cohesion, and many studies and meta-analyses tried to demonstrate a relation between cohesiveness of a team and its performance. How a team really co-operates and how the individual actions are integrated towards a team action is a question that has received relatively little attention in research. This may, at least in part, be due to a lack of a theoretical framework for collective actions, a dearth that has only recently begun to challenge sport psychologists. Objectives In this presentation a framework for a comprehensive theory of teams in sport is outlined and its potential to integrate research in the domain of team performance and, more specifically, the following presentations, is put up for discussion. Method Based on a model developed by von Cranach, Ochsenbein and Valach (1986), teams are considered to be information processing organisms, and team actions need to be investigated on two levels: the individual team member and the group as an entity. Elements to be considered are the task, the social structure, the information processing structure and the execution structure. Obviously, different task require different social structures, communication processes and co-ordination of individual movements. Especially in rapid interactive sports planning and execution of movements based on feedback loops are not possible. Deliberate planning may be a solution mainly for offensive actions, whereas defensive actions have to adjust to the opponent team's actions. Consequently, mental representations must be developed to allow a feed-forward regulation of team member's actions. Results and Conclusions Some preliminary findings based on this conceptual framework as well as further consequences for empirical investigations will be presented. References Cranach, M.v., Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

A Normative Theory of Forgetting: Lessons from the Fruit Fly

Recent experiments revealed that the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster has a dedicated mechanism for forgetting: blocking the G-protein Rac leads to slower and activating Rac to faster forgetting. This active form of forgetting lacks a satisfactory functional explanation. We investigated optimal decision making for an agent adapting to a stochastic environment where a stimulus may switch between being indicative of reward or punishment. Like Drosophila, an optimal agent shows forgetting with a rate that is linked to the time scale of changes in the environment. Moreover, to reduce the odds of missing future reward, an optimal agent may trade the risk of immediate pain for information gain and thus forget faster after aversive conditioning. A simple neuronal network reproduces these features. Our theory shows that forgetting in Drosophila appears as an optimal adaptive behavior in a changing environment. This is in line with the view that forgetting is adaptive rather than a consequence of limitations of the memory system.

Transgressive sporting bodies - A theoretical and critical dicourse analysis of the representation of Caster Semenya in Swiss print media

A debate about Caster Semenya's female sex began shortly after the South African runner won gold in the women’s 800m final at the 2009 Athletic World Championships held in Berlin. Her victory was disputed through questions about her right to compete as a ‘woman’, with the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) announcing she would be required to undergo a gender verification test before her victory could be confirmed. Using the theoretical frame of social constructionism (Berger & Luckmann), poststructuralism (Foucault), gender- and postcolonial theories (Butler; Hall; Spivak) and the methodology of critical discourse analysis (Jaeger), the paper explores the way the possible intersexuality of Caster Semenya was contextualised in mainstream Swiss German-language print media. The analyses will firstly look at the way in which Caster Semenya was constructed as a ʻfallen hero’ and stigmatised as a double-dealer and unacceptable deviant body. The rumours amongst athletes and commentators became news in the media, which focused on descriptions of her habitus, her muscular body and her deep voice. Through theoretical discussion the paper argues that the media response to Caster Semenya exemplifies Butler’s claim that the discursive framework of gender constructs and naturalises sex. A key question is therefore whether the designation of deviant bodies to a ʻfield of deformation’ (Butler) works to pluralise the field of gender, or rather, as Butler suggests, it tends that those bodies might call into questions. The final part of the paper discusses how gender, ethnicity and sexuality combine to constitute the black female sporting body as a spectacle of otherness. It is evident that this otherness is made manifest through the function of those bodies as a site of transgression, as the boundary between male and female, and often as the boundary between culture and nature (Hall). Using the example of the controversy surrounding Caster Semenya, this paper aims to demonstrate how the post/colonial white female body is reproduced by western norms of gender, sexuality, beauty and sporting behaviour, in the sense of a feminine sporting genderperformance. The media controversy will be also read through the lens of the globalisation of certain ideas of normative bodies, sex, ethnicity and gender and the challenge of changing stereotypes through transgression. Keywords: gender- and postcolonial theories, discourse analysis, print media, Caster Semen-ya, deviant body, ethnicity, intersexuality