Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the last glacial inception

The reconstruction of the stable carbon isotope evolution in atmospheric CO2 (δ13Catm), as archived in Antarctic ice cores, bears the potential to disentangle the contributions of the different carbon cycle fluxes causing past CO2 variations. Here we present a new record of δ13Catm before, during and after the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 (155 000 to 105 000 yr BP). The dataset is archived on the data repository PANGEA® (www.pangea.de) under 10.1594/PANGAEA.817041. The record was derived with a well established sublimation method using ice from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the Talos Dome ice cores in East Antarctica. We find a 0.4‰ shift to heavier values between the mean δ13Catm level in the Penultimate (~ 140 000 yr BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (~ 22 000 yr BP), which can be explained by either (i) changes in the isotopic composition or (ii) intensity of the carbon input fluxes to the combined ocean/atmosphere carbon reservoir or (iii) by long-term peat buildup. Our isotopic data suggest that the carbon cycle evolution along Termination II and the subsequent interglacial was controlled by essentially the same processes as during the last 24 000 yr, but with different phasing and magnitudes. Furthermore, a 5000 yr lag in the CO2 decline relative to EDC temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS5.5 (120 000 yr BP). Based on our isotopic data this lag can be explained by terrestrial carbon release and carbonate compensation.

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

Effect of continuous gastric enteral feeding on tonometric measurement of gastric intramucosal carbon dioxide levels in healthy volunteers

Purpose. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of enteral feeding on tonometric measurement of gastric regional carbon dioxide levels (PrCO2) in normal healthy volunteers. Design and methods. The sample included 12 healthy volunteers recruited by the University Clinical Research Center (UCRC). An air tonometry system monitored PrCO2 levels using a tonometer placed in the lumen of the stomach via orogastric intubation. PrCO2 was automatically measured and recorded every 10 minutes throughout the five hour study period. An oral dose of famotidine 40 mg was self-administered the evening prior to and the morning of the study. Instillation of Isocal® High Nitrogen (HN) was used for enteral feeding in hourly escalating doses of 0, 40, 60, and 80 ml/hr with no feeding during the fifth hour. Results . PrCO2 measurements at time 0 and 10 minutes (41.4 ± 6.5 and 41.8 ± 5.7, respectively) demonstrated biologic precision (Levene's Test statistic = 0.085, p-value 0.774). Biologic precision was lost between T130 and T140 40 when compared to baseline TO (Levene's Test statistic = 1.70, p-value 0.205; and 3.205, p-value 0.042, respectively) and returned to non-significant levels between T270 and T280 (Levene's Test statistic = 3.083, p-value 0.043; and 2.307, p-value 0.143, respectively). Isocal® HN significantly affected the biologic accuracy of PrCO2 measurements (repeated measures ANOVA F 4.91, p-value <0.001). After 20 minutes of enteral feeding at 40 ml/hr, PrCO2 significantly increased (41.4 ± 6.5 to 46.6 ± 4.25, F = 5.4, p-value 0.029). Maximum variance from baseline (41.4 ± 6.5 to 61.3 ± 15.2, F = 17.22, p-value <0.001) was noted after 30 minutes of Isocal® HN at 80 ml/hr or 210 minutes from baseline. The significant elevations in PrCO2 continued throughout the study. Sixty minutes after discontinuation of enteral feeding, PrCO2 remained significantly elevated from baseline (41.4 ± 6.5 to 51.8 ± 9.2, F = 10.15, p-value 0.004). Conclusion. Enteral feeding with Isocal® HN significantly affects the precision and accuracy of PrCO2 measurements in healthy volunteers. ^

Sulfur Isotopic Measurements from a West Antarctic Ice Core: Implications for Sulfate Source and Transport

Measurements of delta(34)S covering the years 1935-76 and including the 1963 Agung (Indonesia) eruption were made on a West Antarctic firn core, RIDSA (78.73 degrees S, 116.33 degrees W; 1740m a.s.l.), and results are used to unravel potential source functions in the sulfur cycle over West Antarctica. The delta(34)S values Of SO42- range from 3.1 parts per thousand to 9.9 parts per thousand. These values are lower than those reported for central Antarctica, from near South Pole station, of 9.3-18.1 parts per thousand (Patris and others, 2000). While the Agung period is isotopically distinct at South Pole, it is not in the RIDSA dataset, suggesting differences in the source associations for the sulfur cycle between these two regions. Given the relatively large input of marine aerosols at RIDSA (determined from Na+ data and the seasonal SO42- cycle), there is likely a large marine biogenic SO42- influence. The delta(34)S values indicate, however, that this marine biogenic SO42-, with a well-established delta(34)S of 18 parts per thousand, is mixing with SO42- that has extremely negative delta(34)S values to produce the measured isotope values in the RIDSA core. We suggest that the transport and deposition of stratospheric SO42- in West Antarctica, combined with local volcanic input, accounts for the observed variance in delta(34)S values.

Impact of Preindustrial Biomass-Burning Emissions on the Oxidation Pathways of Tropospheric Sulfur and Nitrogen

Ice core measurements (H2O2 and CH4/HCHO) and modeling studies indicate a change in the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere since the onset of the Industrial Revolution due to increases in fossil fuel burning emissions [e. g., Lelieveld et al., 2002; Hauglustaine and Brasseur, 2001; Wang and Jacob, 1998; Staffelbach et al., 1991]. The mass-independent fractionation (MIF) in the oxygen isotopes of sulfate and nitrate from a Greenland ice core reveal that biomass-burning events in North America just prior to the Industrial Revolution significantly impacted the oxidation pathways of sulfur and nitrogen species deposited in Greenland ice. This finding highlights the importance of biomass-burning emissions for atmospheric chemistry in preindustrial North America and warrants the inclusion of this impact in modeling studies estimating changes in atmospheric oxidant chemistry since the Industrial Revolution, particularly when using paleo-oxidant data as a reference for model evaluation.

Precision of fit of implant-supported screw-retained 10-unit computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured frameworks made from zirconium dioxide and titanium: an in vitro study

OBJECTIVE To analyze the precision of fit of implant-supported screw-retained computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured (CAD/CAM) zirconium dioxide (ZrO) frameworks. MATERIALS AND METHODS Computer-aided-designed and computer-aided-manufactured ZrO frameworks (NobelProcera) for a screw-retained 10-unit implant-supported reconstruction on six implants (FDI positions 15, 13, 11, 21, 23, 25) were fabricated using a laser (ZrO-L, N = 6) and a mechanical scanner (ZrO-M, N = 5) for digitizing the implant platform and the cuspid-supporting framework resin pattern. Laser-scanned CAD/CAM titanium (TIT-L, N = 6) and cast CoCrW-alloy frameworks (Cast, N = 5) fabricated on the same model and designed similar to the ZrO frameworks were the control. The one-screw test (implant 25 screw-retained) was applied to assess the vertical microgap between implant and framework platform with a scanning electron microscope. The mean microgap was calculated from approximal and buccal values. Statistical comparison was performed with non-parametric tests. RESULTS No statistically significant pairwise difference was observed between the relative effects of vertical microgap between ZrO-L (median 14 μm; 95% CI 10-26 μm), ZrO-M (18 μm; 12-27 μm) and TIT-L (15 μm; 6-18 μm), whereas the values of Cast (236 μm; 181-301 μm) were significantly higher (P < 0.001) than the three CAD/CAM groups. A monotonous trend of increasing values from implant 23 to 15 was observed in all groups (ZrO-L, ZrO-M and Cast P < 0.001, TIT-L P = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS Optical and tactile scanners with CAD/CAM technology allow for the fabrication of highly accurate long-span screw-retained ZrO implant-reconstructions. Titanium frameworks showed the most consistent precision. Fit of the cast alloy frameworks was clinically inacceptable.

Validation of multiple-breath washout equipment for infants and young children.

INTRODUCTION The new ATS/ERS consensus report recommends in vitro validation of multiple-breath inert gas washout (MBW) equipment based on a lung model with simulated physiologic conditions. We aimed to assess accuracy of two MBW setups for infants and young children using this model, and to compare functional residual capacity (FRC) from helium MBW (FRCMBW ) with FRC from plethysmography (FRCpleth ) in vivo. METHODS The MBW setups were based on ultrasonic flow meter technology. Sulfur hexafluoride and helium were used as tracer gases. We measured FRC in vitro for specific model settings with and without carbon dioxide and calculated differences of measured to generated FRC. For in vivo evaluation, difference between FRCMBW and FRCpleth was calculated in 20 healthy children, median age 6.1 years. Coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated per FRC. RESULTS In the infant model (51 runs, FRC 80-300 ml), mean (SD) relative difference between generated and measured FRCs was 0.7 (4.7) %, median CV was 4.4% for measured FRCs. In the young child model, one setting (8 runs, FRC 400 ml) showed a relative difference of up to 13%. For the remaining FRCs (42 runs, FRC 600-1,400 ml), mean (SD) relative difference was -2.0 (3.4) %; median CV was 1.4% for measured FRCs. In vivo FRCpleth exceeded FRCMBW values by 37% on average. CONCLUSIONS Both setups measure lung volumes in the intended age group reliably and reproducibly. Characteristics of different techniques should be considered when measuring lung volumes in vivo. Pediatr Pulmonol. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Chlorophyll breakdown: Pheophorbide a oxygenase is a Rieske-type iron-sulfur protein, encoded by the accelerated cell death 1 gene

Chlorophyll (chl) breakdown during senescence is an integral part of plant development and leads to the accumulation of colorless catabolites. The loss of green pigment is due to an oxygenolytic opening of the porphyrin macrocycle of pheophorbide (pheide) a followed by a reduction to yield a fluorescent chl catabolite. This step is comprised of the interaction of two enzymes, pheide a oxygenase (PaO) and red chl catabolite reductase. PaO activity is found only during senescence, hence PaO seems to be a key regulator of chl catabolism. Whereas red chl catabolite reductase has been cloned, the nature of PaO has remained elusive. Here we report on the identification of the PaO gene of Arabidopsis thaliana (AtPaO). AtPaO is a Rieske-type iron–sulfur cluster-containing enzyme that is identical to Arabidopsis accelerated cell death 1 and homologous to lethal leaf spot 1 (LLS1) of maize. Biochemical properties of recombinant AtPaO were identical to PaO isolated from a natural source. Production of fluorescent chl catabolite-1 required ferredoxin as an electron source and both substrates, pheide a and molecular oxygen. By using a maize lls1 mutant, the in vivo function of PaO, i.e., degradation of pheide a during senescence, could be confirmed. Thus, lls1 leaves stayed green during dark incubation and accumulated pheide a that caused a light-dependent lesion mimic phenotype. Whereas proteins were degraded similarly in wild type and lls1, a chl-binding protein was selectively retained in the mutant. PaO expression correlated positively with senescence, but the enzyme appeared to be post-translationally regulated as well.