Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating population features of the anomuran crab Petrolisthes armatus (Porcellanidae) in a remaining and impacted mangrove area of the western Atlantic

This study evaluated biological aspects of Petrolisthes armatus inhabiting a remaining but disturbed mangrove area of Brazil. Samples were taken from March 2005 to July 2006, during low tide in the rocky-shore region. The size frequency distribution for all the individuals collected was bimodal. The sex ratio obtained was not different from 1: 1, and the population was classified as standard. A higher reproductive ratio and earlier ovigerous conditions were found in relation to another southern population; these can be hypothesized as adaptations to life in a stressed environment. Even though the population living in Ara has been subject to an environment frequently disturbed by human-produced pollutants, our results show no sign of negative effects on reproductive stages, recruits or members of the population in general. The population profiles of P. armatus show some peculiarities when compared to other populations inhabiting non disturbed environments.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.

Observations of anti-winds in a deep alpine valley, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

This paper presents observations of summertime anti-winds monitored under ideal conditions in the Lake Tekapo hydro-catchment situated in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand. Onset and cessation of anti-winds was observed to coincide with the change in phase of the surface limbs of thermally generated valley and mountain winds under settled anti-cyclonic conditions. Anti-winds were best developed in the early morning before surface heating and associated convective mixing of the valley atmosphere began to mask the boundaries between the surface based limb of the mountain-valley wind and the corresponding anti-wind. By mid-day, the anti-valley wind exceeded the height of the surrounding ridgeline and became embedded in the topographically channeled gradient wind. Observations presented here have both theoretical and applied implications with regard to the development of thermally generated wind systems in deep alpine valleys, and their role in the dispersion of air pollution.

Evaluation of the aquatic macroinvertebrate community as a tool for monitoring a reservoir in the Pitangui river basin, Parana, Brazil

Evaluation of the aquatic macroinvertebrate community as a tool for monitoring a reservoir in the Pitangui river basin, Parana, Brazil. Benthic and nektonic macroinvertebrates play an important role in the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems and their distribution is influenced by chemical features of the substrate, vegetation composition, and water depth. Knowledge on the fauna contributes to the assessment of water quality and development of biodiversity conservation activities. Different biotic factors affecting the invertebrate community were evaluated in the Alagados reservoir, the main water source of the city of Ponta Grossa, Parana. In five different sampling points, 18,473 specimens of aquatic or semiaquatic macroinvertebrates were collected, belonging to 46 taxa of the phylla Annelida (Hirudinea and Oligochaeta), Mollusca (Gastropoda), Platyhelminthes (Turbellaria), Nematoda and Arthropoda (Arachnida, Crustacea and Insecta). This community was composed mainly of predators (45.7% of the taxa sampled), collectors and/or filterers (23.9%), scrapers (15.2%), shredders (13.0%) and detritivores (2.2%). Diversity (H`) and evenness (J) indices were significantly low for the sites examined, and H` ranged between 0.3301 and 1.0396. Regarding tolerance of organisms to organic pollution, more sensitive taxa were very rare (Plecoptera) or unusual (Trichoptera and Ephemeroptera). Among the more resistant groups are Chironomidae and Hirudinea, both fairly common in the samples. This study corroborates the importance of bioindicators as a tool to assess water quality for human consumption and for the conservation of aquatic environments, integrating physical, chemical and biological factors in monitoring programs.

Evaluating the use of predatory insects as bioindicators of metals contamination due to sugarcane cultivation in neotropical streams

Streams located in areas of sugarcane cultivation receive high concentrations of metal ions from soils of the adjacent areas causing accumulation of metals in the aquatic sediment. This impact results in environmental problems and leads to bioaccumulation of metal ions in aquatic organisms. In the present study, metal concentrations in different predatory insects were studied in streams near sugarcane cultivation and compared to reference sites. Possible utilisation of predatory insects as bioindicators of metal contamination due to sugarcane cultivation from 13 neotropical streams was evaluated. Ion concentrations of Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Zn, Fe, and Mn in adult Belostomatidae (Hemiptera) and in larvae of Libellulidae (Odonata) were analysed. Nine streams are located in areas with sugarcane cultivation, without riparian vegetation (classified as impacted area) and four streams were located in forested areas (reference sites). Metal concentrations in insects were higher near sugarcane cultivations than in control sites. Cluster analysis, complemented by an ANOSIM test, clearly showed that these insect groups are good potential bioindicators of metal contamination in streams located in areas with sugarcane cultivation and can be used in monitoring programmes. We also conclude that Libellulidae appeared to accumulate higher concentrations of metals than Belostomatidae.

Experiments and modelling of phenanthrene biodegradation in the aqueous phase by a mixed culture

Pollution by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) is widespread due to unsuitable disposal of industrial waste. They are mostly defined as priority pollutants by environmental protection authorities worldwide. Phenanthrene, a typical PAH, was selected as the target in this paper. The PAH-degrading mixed culture, named ZM, was collected from a petroleum contaminated river bed. This culture was injected into phenanthrene solutions at different concentrations to quantify the biodegradation process. Results show near-complete removal of phenanthrene in three days of biodegradation if the initial phenanthrene concentration is low. When the initial concentration is high, the removal rate is increased but 20%-40% of the phenanthrene remains at the end of the experiment. The biomass shows a peak on the third day due to the combined effects of microbial growth and decay. Another peak is evident for cases with a high initial concentration, possibly due to production of an intermediate metabolite. The pH generally decreased during biodegradation because of the production of organic acid. Two phenomenological models were designed to simulate the phenanthrene biodegradation and biomass growth. A relatively simple model that does not consider the intermediate metabolite and its inhibition of phenanthrene biodegradation cannot fit the observed data. A modified Monod model that considered an intermediate metabolite (organic acid) and its inhibiting reversal effect reasonably depicts the experimental results.