Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

Bilateral Uveal Pigmented Alterations With Remarkable Evolution: Long Term Follow-Up in a Case of Possible Bilateral Diffuse Uveal Melanocytic Proliferation

Purpose: to describe a case of probable bilateral diffuse uveal melanocytic proliferation (BDUMP) with scleral involvement, free from systemic malignancies and cataract. Methods: fifty months of follow up with recurrent complete ophthalmological examinations, including fundus photography, fluorescein/indocyanine green angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Investigations also included an electroretinography (ERG) and histological examination of scleral biopsy. Extraocular malignancies were repeatedly searched. Results: the patient was a 61 year-old Italian man with chronic hepatitis type C. At first visit his best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/32 in OS and 20/25 in OD. Funduscopy showed multiple patch-shaped pigmented alterations involving macular region and mid retinal periphery. FA showed corresponding areas of late-phase hyperfluorescent pinpoints (figure 1a, OS) and intemediate-phase hypocyanescence (figure 1b, OS), with subtle serous neurosensory retinal detachment confirmed by OCT. Photopic and scotopic ERG tested normal. Systemic prednisone was administered for one month without any improvement. After ten months round pigmentary lesions appeared also in superior scleral surface of both eyes. Biopsy allowed to disclose slightly pigmented spindle cells. BCVA worsened for further 10 months, with enlargement of FA alteration areas but lenses still clear. After 30 months spontaneous coalescence and atrophy of retinal lesions started, paralleled by progressive visual recovery. At the end of our follow up BCVA was 20/25 in OU while scleral pigmentary lesions remained unchanged. Conclusions: we report the case of a patient with main features of BDUMP and some unusual findings. Although not all classical diagnostic criteria were fulfilled, the presence of scleral pigmented lesions and spontaneous visual recovery may enlarge clinical spectrum of the disease.

Serum procalcitonin as a marker of post-cardiac arrest syndrome and long-term neurological recovery, but not of early-onset infections, in comatose post-anoxic patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of early serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels with the severity of post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS), long-term neurological recovery and the risk of early-onset infections in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH). METHODS: A prospective cohort of adult comatose CA patients treated with TH (33°C, for 24h) admitted to the medical/surgical intensive care unit, Lausanne University Hospital, was studied. Serum PCT was measured early after CA, at two time-points (days 1 and 2). The SOFA score was used to quantify the severity of PCAS. Diagnosis of early-onset infections (within the first 7 days of ICU stay) was made after review of clinical, radiological and microbiological data. Neurological recovery at 3 months was assessed with Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC), and was dichotomized as favorable (CPC 1-2) vs. unfavorable (CPC 3-5). RESULTS: From December 2009 to April 2012, 100 patients (median age 64 [interquartile range 55-73] years, median time from collapse to ROSC 20 [11-30]min) were studied. Peak PCT correlated with SOFA score at day 1 (Spearman's R=0.44, p<0.0001) and was associated with neurological recovery at 3 months (peak PCT 1.08 [0.35-4.45]ng/ml in patients with CPC 1-2 vs. 3.07 [0.89-9.99] ng/ml in those with CPC 3-5, p=0.01). Peak PCT did not differ significantly between patients with early-onset vs. no infections (2.14 [0.49-6.74] vs. 1.53 [0.46-5.38]ng/ml, p=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: Early elevations of serum PCT levels correlate with the severity of PCAS and are associated with worse neurological recovery after CA and TH. In contrast, elevated serum PCT did not correlate with early-onset infections in this setting.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

2007 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Selected Iowa Source Categories

The Department’s 2007 Greenhouse Gas Inventory is a refinement of previous statewide inventories. It is a bottom-up inventory of two sectors – fossil fuel combustion at federally-recognized major sources of air pollution and fossil fuel combustion and ethanol fermentation at dry mill ethanol plants. This is the first bottomup greenhouse gas inventory conducted for Iowa and the first bottom-up greenhouse gas inventory of ethanol plants in the nation that the Department is aware of. In a bottom-up inventory, facility-specific activity data is used to calculate emissions. In a top-down inventory, aggregate activity data is used to calculate emissions. For example, this bottom-up inventory calculates greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel combustion at each individual facility instead of using the total amount of fossil fuel combusted state-wide, which would be a top-down inventory method. The advantage to a bottom-up inventory is that the calculations are more accurate than a top-down inventory. However, because the two methods differ, the results from a bottom-up inventory are not directly comparable to a top-down inventory.

Cape Verde - Diagnostic Trade Inttegration study Update - 2013

This Report is an update of the Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study, titled Cape Verde’s Insertion into the Global Economy, produced and validated by the Government of Cape Verde in December 2008. Like the previous 2008 study, this Cape Verde Diagnostic Trade Integration Study Update provides a critical examination of the major institutional and production constraints that hinder Cape Verde’s ability to capitalize fully on the growth and welfare gains from its integration into the world economy. As a policy report, this study offers a set of priority policies and measures that can be implemented by both the public and private sectors to mitigate and surmount these supply side and institutional constraints. These recommendations are summarized in an Action Matrix. The Report is fruit of the generous support of the multi-donor program the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF). In every crisis there is an opportunity. Four years after the validation of the country’s first Diagnostic Trade Integration Study in 2008, Cape Verde finds itself in a drastically altered external environment. Cape Verde faces a worsened external environment than four years ago, when it was also traversing years of crisis as global food and energy prices escalated. Just as the country was validating its first trade study in late 2008, and celebrating its graduation from the list of Least Developed Countries, the onset of the deepest global recession in recent memory triggered an even worse external situation as the country’s principal source of markets, investments, remittances and aid, the Eurozone, unraveled economically and politically. As the Eurozone crisis spread, it was Cape Verde’s misfortune that the crisis contaminated precisely its biggest Eurozone partners and donors, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy. For such a highly dependent and exposed economy like that of Cape Verde, the deteriorating external sector has had a substantial negative impact on its macroeconomic performance. At the time of the validation workshop and graduation in 2008, no one could have foreseen or predicted the severity of the global crisis that followed. Despite traversing these years of adversity and external shocks, and suffering palpable setbacks, Cape Verde’s economy had proven surprisingly resilient, especially its principal sector, tourism. To its great credit, the country’s economic fundamentals are solid, and have been carefully and prudently managed over the years. For this reason alone, the country has thus far weathered the global and Eurozone crisis. Yet the near and medium term future remains uncertain. The country’s margin for maneuver has narrowed, its options far more limited, and hard choices lie ahead. Thus, there is no better time than now to analyze Cape Verde’s position in the global economy, and to examine the many challenges and opportunities it faces. The first diagnostic trade study outlined an ambitious agenda and set of policy strategies to enhance Cape Verde’s participation in the global economy. Written prior to the global crisis, the study did not, and could not, anticipate the scope and depth of the subsequent global and Eurozone crises. A few short months before the validation of the first DTIS Cape Verde joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has spent these four years adjusting to this status and implementing its commitments. At the same time, the country seeks greater economic integration with the European Union. Since 2008 the government has been investing heavily in the country’s economic infrastructure, focusing especially on fostering transformation in key sectors like agriculture, fisheries, tourism and creative industries. For these and many other reasons, it is both timely and urgent to review the road traveled since 2008. It is an opportune moment to reassess the country’s options, to rethink strategies, and to chart a new way forward that it is practical, implementable, and that builds on the country’s competitive advantages and current successes.

Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force Report, August 2008

Eighty-five of 99 Iowa counties were declared Presidential Disaster Areas for Public Assistance and/orIndividual Assistance as a result of the tornadoes, storms, and floods over the incident period May 25 through August 13, 2008. Response dominated the state’s attention for weeks, with a transition to recovery as the local situations warranted. The widespread damage and severity of the impact on Iowans and their communities required a statewide effort to continue moving forward despite being surrounded by adversity. By all accounts, it will require years for the state to recover from these disasters. With an eye toward the future, recovery is underway across Iowa. As part of the Rebuild Iowa efforts, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force was charged with responsibilities somewhat different from other topical Task Force assignments. Rather than assess damage and report on how the state might address immediate needs, the Long Term Recovery Planning Task Force is directed to discuss and discern the best approach to the lengthy recovery process. Certainly, the Governor and Lieutenant Governor expect the task to be difficult; when planning around so many critical issues and overwhelming needs, it is challenging to think to the future, rather than to rise to the current day’s needs.

Insects associated with the composting process of solid urban waste separated at the source

Sarcosaprophagous macroinvertebrates (earthworms, termites and a number of Diptera larvae) enhance changes in the physical and chemical properties of organic matter during degradation and stabilization processes in composting, causing a decrease in the molecular weights of compounds. This activity makes these organisms excellent recyclers of organic matter. This article evaluates the succession of insects associated with the decomposition of solid urban waste separated at the source. The study was carried out in the city of Medellin, Colombia. A total of 11,732 individuals were determined, belonging to the classes Insecta and Arachnida. Species of three orders of Insecta were identified, Diptera, Coleoptera and Hymenoptera. Diptera corresponding to 98.5% of the total, was the most abundant and diverse group, with 16 families (Calliphoridae, Drosophilidae, Psychodidae, Fanniidae, Muscidae, Milichiidae, Ulidiidae, Scatopsidae, Sepsidae, Sphaeroceridae, Heleomyzidae, Stratiomyidae, Syrphidae, Phoridae, Tephritidae and Curtonotidae) followed by Coleoptera with five families (Carabidae, Staphylinidae, Ptiliidae, Hydrophilidae and Phalacaridae). Three stages were observed during the composting process, allowing species associated with each stage to be identified. Other species were also present throughout the whole process. In terms of number of species, Diptera was the most important group observed, particularly Ornidia obesa, considered a highly invasive species, and Hermetia illuscens, both reported as beneficial for decomposition of organic matter.

Human cardiospheres as a source of multipotent stem and progenitor cells.

Cardiospheres (CSs) are self-assembling multicellular clusters from the cellular outgrowth from cardiac explants cultured in nonadhesive substrates. They contain a core of primitive, proliferating cells, and an outer layer of mesenchymal/stromal cells and differentiating cells that express cardiomyocyte proteins and connexin 43. Because CSs contain both primitive cells and committed progenitors for the three major cell types present in the heart, that is, cardiomyocytes, endothelial cells, and smooth muscle cells, and because they are derived from percutaneous endomyocardial biopsies, they represent an attractive cell source for cardiac regeneration. In preclinical studies, CS-derived cells (CDCs) delivered to infarcted hearts resulted in improved cardiac function. CDCs have been tested safely in an initial phase-1 clinical trial in patients after myocardial infarction. Whether or not CDCs are superior to purified populations, for example, c-kit(+) cardiac stem cells, or to gene therapy approaches for cardiac regeneration remains to be evaluated.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Financing constraints and fixed-term employment contracts

This paper studies the interactions between financing constraints and theemployment decisions of firms when both fixed-term and permanent employmentcontracts are available. We first develop a dynamic model that shows theeffects of financing constraints and firing costs on employment decisions. Oncecalibrated, the model shows that financially constrained firms tend to use moreintensely fixed term workers, and to make them absorb a larger fraction of thetotal employment volatility than financially unconstrained firms do. We testand confirm the predictions of the model on a unique panel data of Italian manufacturingfirms with detailed information about the type of workers employedby the firms and about firm financing constraints.

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2008, January 2009

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, skilled nursing facilities, residential care facilities, nursing facilities in hospitals, elder group homes and assisted living programs. The long-term care system in Iowa has changed significantly over the past 10 years. Local long-term care ombudsman programs in Iowa are now well established. Iowa still ranks near the bottom of 53 ombudsman programs in the nation for ratio of paid staff to residents with one ombudsman for each 7,400 residents compared to the national average of one ombudsman for each 2,174 residents. The Resident Advocate Committee Program remains stable at 2400 volunteers and Iowa continues to be the only state in the nation with this type of program. Because volunteers do not receive training as required by the Administration on Aging, volunteers are not certified volunteer ombudsmen and the work done by these volunteers cannot be included in Iowa’s annual federal reports. With the changing population living in long-term care facilities, this volunteer job is much more challenging than in the past. Helping to build a long-term care system in Iowa that provides individualized, person-directed quality care is the long-term goal for this office.

Esotropie précoce: résultats à long terme d'une série de 82 cas opérés par myopexie rétro-équatoriale et recul simultané des deux muscles droits médiaux avant l'âge de 24 mois [Early-onset esotropia operated before the age of 24 months: long-term results of Cüpper's retropexy combined with simultaneous recession of both medial recti]

BACKGROUND: When and how to operate an early-onset esotropia (onset before 6 months of age) is still controversial. We conducted a retrospective study of such patients operated before the age of 24 months. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 82 patients were operated by one surgeon (GK) and followed by the same team. At 5 years post-operation, evaluation criteria included the residual angle of deviation, visual acuity (Birkhäuser Nr 505, 5 m) and binocularity (Lang stereotest I, Bagolini glasses). RESULTS: At 5 years, the residual angle was excellent (0 degrees to + 5 degrees ) in 67 % good, (>+5 degrees to +10 degrees or 0 to -5 degrees ) in 23 %, and poor (>+10 degrees or <-5 degrees ) in 10 %. During the 5 years of follow-up the rate of reoperation was 9.7 %. Isoacuity was obtained in 62 %, slight amblyopia (2 lines of interocular difference) was present in 32 %, and average amblyopia (> 3 lines of interocular difference) was noted in 6 %. Simultaneous perception was present in 53 %, whereas one eye was suppressed or results were undetermined in 47 %. No patient demonstrated stereoscopy using the Lang's stereotest I. CONCLUSION: The results from our study demonstrate that early surgery of early-onset esotropia has a favourable outcome on both visual acuity and the residual angle of strabismus. Simultaneous perception was achieved in 53 %. These figures are comparable to the results of the ELISSS multicentric study.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

Short term variation in the vertical distribution of copepods off the coast of northern Peru

Analiza los datos colectados de la clorofila frente al Peru cerca de 9°S. Determinandose la profundidad a la que se enuentran y la concentración de oxigeno durante el dia y la noche.