983 resultados para range uncertainty
Resumo:
A complete nucleotide sequence of the new Pseudomonas aeruginosa Luz24likevirus phiCHU was obtained. This virus was shown to have a unique host range whereby it grew poorly on the standard laboratory strain PAO1, but infected 26 of 46 clinical isolates screened, and strains harboring IncP2 plasmid pMG53. It was demonstrated that phiCHU has single strand interruptions in its genome. Analysis of the phiCHU genome also suggested that recombination event(s) participated in the evolution of the leftmost portion of the genome, presumably encoding early genes.
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We compare a suite of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (Parent PAHs) in soils and air across an urban area (Belfast UK). Isomeric PAH ratios suggest that soil PAHs are mainly from a combustion source. Fugacity modelling across a range of soil temperatures predicts that four ring and larger PAHs from pyrene to indeno[1,2,3–cd]pyrene all partition strongly (>98%) to the soil compartment. This modelling also implies that these PAHs do not experience losses through partitioning to other phases (air, water) due to soil temperature effects. Such modelling may help in understanding the overall contaminantdistribution in soils. The air and soil data together with modelling suggests that care must be taken when considering isomeric ratios of compounds with mass lighter than 178 (i.e. phenanthrene and anthracene) in the soil phase. Comparison of duplicate and replicate samples suggest that field sampling of duplicates dominates uncertainty and validated methodologies for selection of field duplicates and lab splitting are required. As the urban soil four ring PAHs are at equilibrium in the soil phase, and have characteristic ratios that are dominated by a combustion source that is a single controlling factor over spatial distribution, methods that calculate background concentrations can be compared.
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Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias.
Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture.
Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria.
Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England.
Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation.
Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard.
Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy.
Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.
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This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.
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Transportation accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, and increases to 25% in Northern Ireland. Surface transport carbon dioxide emissions, consisting of road and rail, are dominated by cars. Demand for mobility is rising rapidly and vehicle numbers are expected to more than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are working towards reducing their carbon footprint through improving fuel efficiency and controlling exhaust emissions. Fuel efficiency is now a key consideration of consumers purchasing a new vehicle. While measures have been taken to help to reduce pollutants, in the future, alternative technologies will have to be used in the transportation industry to achieve sustainability. There are currently many alternatives to the market leader, the internal combustion engine. These alternatives include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles, a term which is widely used to cover battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles. This study draws direct comparisons measuring the differing performance in terms of fuel consumption, carbon emissions and range of a typical family saloon car using different fuel types. These comparisons will then be analysed to see what effect switching from a conventionally fuelled vehicle to a range extended electric vehicle would have not only on the end user, but also the UK government.
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Using low-energy electron-diffraction (LEED) formalism, we demonstrate theoretically that LEED I-V spectra are characterized mainly by short-range order. We also show experimentally that diffuse LEED (DLEED) I-V spectra can be accurately measured from a disordered system using a video-LEED system even at very low coverage. These spectra demonstrate that experimental DLEED I-V spectra from disordered systems may be used to determine local structures. As an example, it is shown that experimental DLEED I-V spectra from K/Co {1010BAR} at potassium coverages of 0.07, 0.1, and 0.13 monolayer closely resemble calculated and experimental LEED I-V spectra for a well-ordered Co{1010BAR}-c(2X2)-K superstructure, leading to the conclusion that at low coverages, potassium atoms are located in the fourfold-hollow sites and that there is no large bond-length change with coverage.
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We present optical observations of the peculiar stripped-envelope supernovae (SNe) LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw discovered by the La Silla-QUEST survey. LSQ12btw reaches an absolute peak magnitude of M-g = -19.3 +/- 0.2, and shows an asymmetric light curve. Stringent pre-discovery limits constrain its rise time to maximum light to less than 4 d, with a slower post-peak luminosity decline, similar to that experienced by the prototypical SN Ibn 2006jc. LSQ13ccw is somewhat different: while it also exhibits a very fast rise to maximum, it reaches a fainter absolute peak magnitude (M-g =-18.4 +/- 0.2), and experiences an extremely rapid post-peak decline similar to that observed in the peculiar SN Ib 2002bj. A stringent pre-discovery limit and an early marginal detection of LSQ13ccw allow us to determine the explosion time with an uncertainty of +/- 1 d. The spectra of LSQ12btw show the typical narrow He I emission lines characterizing Type Ibn SNe, suggesting that the SN ejecta are interacting with He-rich circumstellar material. The He I lines in the spectra of LSQ13ccw exhibit weak narrow emissions superposed on broad components. An unresolved H alpha line is also detected, suggesting a tentative Type Ibn/IIn classification. As for other SNe Ibn, we argue that LSQ12btw and LSQ13ccw likely result from the explosions of Wolf-Rayet stars that experienced instability phases prior to core collapse. We inspect the host galaxies of SNe Ibn, and we show that all of them but one are hosted in spiral galaxies, likely in environments spanning a wide metallicity range.
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BACKGROUND: Seasonal/perennial allergic conjunctivitis is the most common allergic conjunctivitis, usually with acute manifestations when a person is exposed to allergens and with typical signs and symptoms including itching, redness, and tearing. The clinical signs and symptoms of allergic conjunctivitis are mediated by the release of histamine by mast cells. Histamine antagonists (also called antihistamines) inhibit the action of histamine by blocking histamine H1 receptors, antagonising the vasoconstrictor, and to a lesser extent, the vasodilator effects of histamine. Mast cell stabilisers inhibit degranulation and consequently the release of histamine by interrupting the normal chain of intracellular signals. Topical treatments include eye drops with antihistamines, mast cell stabilisers, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, combinations of the previous treatments, and corticosteroids. Standard treatment is based on topical antihistamines alone or topical mast cell stabilisers alone or a combination of treatments. There is clinical uncertainty about the relative efficacy and safety of topical treatment.
OBJECTIVES: The objective of this review was to assess the effects of topical antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers, alone or in combination, for use in treating seasonal and perennial allergic conjunctivitis.
SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Trials Register) (2014, Issue 7), Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE Daily, Ovid OLDMEDLINE (January 1946 to July 2014), EMBASE (January 1980 to July 2014), the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) (www.controlled-trials.com), ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (www.who.int/ictrp/search/en). We did not use any date or language restrictions in the electronic searches for trials. We last searched the electronic databases on 17 July 2014. We also searched the reference lists of review articles and relevant trial reports for details of further relevant publications.
SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing topical antihistamine and mast cell stabilisers, alone or in combination, with placebo, no treatment or to any other antihistamine or mast cell stabiliser, or both, that examined people with seasonal or perennial allergic conjunctivitis, or both. The primary outcome was any participant-reported evaluation (by questionnaire) of severity of four main ocular symptoms: itching, irritation, watering eye (tearing), and photophobia (dislike of light), both separately and, if possible, by an overall symptom score. We considered any follow-up time between one week and one year.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Disagreements were resolved by discussion among review authors and the involvement of a third review author. We followed standard methodological approaches used by Cochrane.
MAIN RESULTS: We identified 30 trials with a total of 4344 participants randomised, with 17 different drugs or treatment comparisons. The following antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers were evaluated in at least one RCT: nedocromil sodium or sodium cromoglycate, olopatadine, ketotifen, azelastine, emedastine, levocabastine (or levocabastine), mequitazine, bepotastine besilate, combination of antazoline and tetryzoline, combination of levocabastine and pemirolast potassium. The most common comparison was azelastine versus placebo (nine studies).We observed a large variability in reporting outcomes. The quality of the studies and reporting was variable, but overall the risk of bias was low. Trials evaluated only short-term effects, with a range of treatment of one to eight weeks. Meta-analysis was only possible in one comparison (olopatadine versus ketotifen). There was some evidence to support that topical antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers reduce symptoms and signs of seasonal allergic conjunctivitis when compared with placebo. There were no reported serious adverse events related to the use of topical antihistamine and mast cell stabilisers treatment.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: It seems that all reported topical antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers reduce symptoms and signs of seasonal allergic conjunctivitis when compared with placebo in the short term. However, there is no long-term data on their efficacy. Direct comparisons of different antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers need to be interpreted with caution. Overall, topical antihistamines and mast cell stabilisers appear to be safe and well tolerated. We observed a large variability in outcomes reported. Poor quality of reporting challenged the synthesis of evidence.
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Many of the societal challenges that current spatial planning practice claims to be addressing (climate change, peak oil, obesity, aging society etc) encompass issues and timescales that lie beyond the traditional scope planning policy (Campbell 2006). The example of achieving a low carbon economy typifies this in that it demands a process of society-wide transition, involving steering a wide range of factors (markets, infrastructure, governance, individual behaviour etc). Such a process offers a challenge to traditional approaches to planning as they cannot be guided by a fixed blueprint, given the timescales involved (up to 50 years) and an enhanced level of uncertainty, social resistance, lack of control over implementation and a danger of ‘policy lock in’ (Kemp et al 2007). One approach to responding to these challenges is the concept of transition management which has emerged from studies of science, technology and innovation (Geels 2002, Markard et al 2012). Although not without criticism, this perspective attempts to uncertainty and complexity encompassing long term visions that integrates multi-level, multi-actor and multi-domain perspectives (Rotmans et al 2001).
Given its origins, research on transition management has tended to neglect spatial contexts (Coenen et al 2012) and, related to this, it’s relationship with spatial planning is poorly understood. Using the example of the low carbon transition, this paper will review the relationships between the concepts, methodologies and goals of transition management and spatial planning to explore whether a closer integration of the two fields offers benefits to achieving the long term challenges facing society.
Resumo:
Three photocatalyst inks based on the redox dyes, Resazurin (Rz), Basic Blue 66 (BB66) and Acid Violet 7 (AV7), are used to assess the photocatalytic activities of a variety of different materials, such as commercial paint, tiles and glass and laboratory made samples of sol–gel coated glass and paint, which collectively exhibit a wide range of activities that cannot currently be probed by any one of the existing ISO tests. Unlike the ISO tests, the ink tests are fast (typically <10 min), simple to employ and inexpensive. Previous work indicates that the Rz ink test at least correlates linearly with other photocatalytic tests such as the photomineralisation of stearic acid. The average time to bleach 90% of the key RGB colour component of the ink, red for Rz and BB66 inks and green for AV7 ink, is determined, ttb(90), for eight samples of each of the different materials tested. Five laboratories conducted the tests and the results revealed an average repeatability and reproducibility of: ca. 11% and ca 21%, respectively, which compare well with those reported for the current ISO tests. Additional work on commercial self-cleaning glass using an Rz ink showed that the change in the red component of the RGB image of the ink correlated linearly with that of the change of absorbance at 608 nm, as measured using UV/vis spectroscopy, and the change in the a* component of the Lab colour analysis of the ink, as measured using diffuse reflectance spectroscopy. As a consequence, all three methods generate the same ttb(90). The advantages of the RGB digital image analysis method are discussed briefly.