Mapping of Environmental Data Using Kernel-Based Methods

Recently, kernel-based Machine Learning methods have gained great popularity in many data analysis and data mining fields: pattern recognition, biocomputing, speech and vision, engineering, remote sensing etc. The paper describes the use of kernel methods to approach the processing of large datasets from environmental monitoring networks. Several typical problems of the environmental sciences and their solutions provided by kernel-based methods are considered: classification of categorical data (soil type classification), mapping of environmental and pollution continuous information (pollution of soil by radionuclides), mapping with auxiliary information (climatic data from Aral Sea region). The promising developments, such as automatic emergency hot spot detection and monitoring network optimization are discussed as well.

Biomechanical characterization and in vitro mechanical injury of elderly human femoral head cartilage: comparison to adult bovine humeral head cartilage.

OBJECTIVES: In vitro mechanical injury of articular cartilage is useful to identify events associated with development of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (OA). To date, many in vitro injury models have used animal cartilage despite the greater clinical relevance of human cartilage. We aimed to characterize a new in vitro injury model using elderly human femoral head cartilage and compare its behavior to that of an existing model with adult bovine humeral head cartilage. DESIGN: Mechanical properties of human and bovine cartilage disks were characterized by elastic modulus and hydraulic permeability in radially confined axial compression, and by Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and direction-dependent radial strain in unconfined compression. Biochemical composition was assessed in terms of tissue water, solid, and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) contents. Responses to mechanical injury were assessed by observation of macroscopic superficial tissue cracks and histological measurements of cell viability following single injurious ramp loads at 7 or 70%/s strain rate to 3 or 14 MPa peak stress. RESULTS: Confined compression moduli and Young's moduli were greater in elderly human femoral cartilage vs adult bovine humeral cartilage whereas hydraulic permeability was less. Radial deformations of axially compressed explant disks were more anisotropic (direction-dependent) for the human cartilage. In both cartilage sources, tissue cracking and associated cell death during injurious loading was common for 14 MPa peak stress at both strain rates. CONCLUSION: Despite differences in mechanical properties, acute damage induced by injurious loading was similar in both elderly human femoral cartilage and adult bovine humeral cartilage, supporting the clinical relevance of animal-based cartilage injury models. However, inherent structural differences such as cell density may influence subsequent cell-mediated responses to injurious loading and affect the development of OA.

Immigration and housing booms: Evidence from Spain

We estimate empirically the effect of immigration on house prices and residentialconstruction activity in Spain over the period 1998-2008. This decade is characterized by both aspectacular housing market boom and a stunning immigration wave. We exploit the variation inimmigration across Spanish provinces and construct an instrument based on the historicallocation patterns of immigrants by country of origin. The evidence points to a sizeable causaleffect of immigration on both prices and quantities in the housing market. Between 1998 and2008, the average Spanish province received an immigrant inflow equal to 17% of the initialworking-age population. We estimate that this inflow increased house prices by about 52% andis responsible for 37% of the total construction of new housing units during the period. Thesefigures imply that immigration can account for roughly one third of the housing boom, both interms of prices and new construction.

Trabecular bone score is associated with volumetric bone density and microarchitecture as assessed by central QCT and HRpQCT in Chinese American and white women.

Although high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) and central quantitative computed tomography (QCT) studies have shown bone structural differences between Chinese American (CH) and white (WH) women, these techniques are not readily available in the clinical setting. The trabecular bone score (TBS) estimates trabecular microarchitecture from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry spine images. We assessed TBS in CH and WH women and investigated whether TBS is associated with QCT and HRpQCT indices. Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, lumbar spine (LS) TBS, QCT of the LS and hip, and HRpQCT of the radius and tibia were performed in 71 pre- (37 WH and 34 CH) and 44 postmenopausal (21 WH and 23 CH) women. TBS did not differ by race in either pre- or postmenopausal women. In the entire cohort, TBS positively correlated with LS trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) (r = 0.664), femoral neck integral (r = 0.651), trabecular (r = 0.641) and cortical vBMD (r = 0.346), and cortical thickness (C/I; r = 0.540) by QCT (p < 0.001 for all). TBS also correlated with integral (r = 0.643), trabecular (r = 0.574) and cortical vBMD (r = 0.491), and C/I (r = 0.541) at the total hip (p < 0.001 for all). The combination of TBS and LS aBMD predicted more of the variance in QCT measures than aBMD alone. TBS was associated with all HRpQCT indices (r = 0.20-0.52) except radial cortical thickness and tibial trabecular thickness. Significant associations between TBS and measures of HRpQCT and QCT in WH and CH pre- and postmenopausal women demonstrated here suggest that TBS may be a useful adjunct to aBMD for assessing bone quality.

Combined analysis of grey matter voxel-based morphometry and white matter tract-based spatial statistics in late-life bipolar disorder.

Background: Previous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies in young patients with bipolar disorder indicated the presence of grey matter concentration changes as well as microstructural alterations in white matter in various neocortical areas and the corpus callosum. Whether these structural changes are also present in elderly patients with bipolar disorder with long-lasting clinical evolution remains unclear. Methods: We performed a prospective MRI study of consecutive elderly, euthymic patients with bipolar disorder and healthy, elderly controls. We conducted a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis and a tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis to assess fractional anisotropy and longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity derived by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Results: We included 19 patients with bipolar disorder and 47 controls in our study. Fractional anisotropy was the most sensitive DTI marker and decreased significantly in the ventral part of the corpus callosum in patients with bipolar disorder. Longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity showed no significant between-group differences. Grey matter concentration was reduced in patients with bipolar disorder in the right anterior insula, head of the caudate nucleus, nucleus accumbens, ventral putamen and frontal orbital cortex. Conversely, there was no grey matter concentration or fractional anisotropy increase in any brain region in patients with bipolar disorder compared with controls. Limitations: The major limitation of our study is the small number of patients with bipolar disorder. Conclusion: Our data document the concomitant presence of grey matter concentration decreases in the anterior limbic areas and the reduced fibre tract coherence in the corpus callosum of elderly patients with long-lasting bipolar disorder.

Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.

A pseudo-spectral method for the simulation of poro-elastic seismic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates using domain decomposition

We present a novel numerical approach for the comprehensive, flexible, and accurate simulation of poro-elastic wave propagation in 2D polar coordinates. An important application of this method and its extensions will be the modeling of complex seismic wave phenomena in fluid-filled boreholes, which represents a major, and as of yet largely unresolved, computational problem in exploration geophysics. In view of this, we consider a numerical mesh, which can be arbitrarily heterogeneous, consisting of two or more concentric rings representing the fluid in the center and the surrounding porous medium. The spatial discretization is based on a Chebyshev expansion in the radial direction and a Fourier expansion in the azimuthal direction and a Runge-Kutta integration scheme for the time evolution. A domain decomposition method is used to match the fluid-solid boundary conditions based on the method of characteristics. This multi-domain approach allows for significant reductions of the number of grid points in the azimuthal direction for the inner grid domain and thus for corresponding increases of the time step and enhancements of computational efficiency. The viability and accuracy of the proposed method has been rigorously tested and verified through comparisons with analytical solutions as well as with the results obtained with a corresponding, previously published, and independently bench-marked solution for 2D Cartesian coordinates. Finally, the proposed numerical solution also satisfies the reciprocity theorem, which indicates that the inherent singularity associated with the origin of the polar coordinate system is adequately handled.

Heritability of left ventricular structure and function in Caucasian families.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the heritability as well as genetic and environmental correlations of left ventricular (LV) structural and functional traits in complex pedigrees of a Caucasian population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomly recruited 459 white European subjects from 52 families (50% women; mean age 45 years). LV structure was measured by M-mode and 2D echocardiography and LV function was measured by conventional Doppler and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Other measurements included blood pressure, anthropometric, and biochemical measurements. We estimated the heritability of LV traits while adjusting for covariables, including sex, age, body height and weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and heart rate. With full adjustment, heritability of LV mass was 0.23 (P= 0.025). The TDI-derived mitral annular velocities Ea and Aa showed moderate heritability (h(2)= 0.36 and 0.53, respectively), whereas the mitral inflow A peak had weak heritability (h(2) = 0.25) and the E peak was not heritable (h(2) = 0.11). We partitioned the total phenotypic correlation when it reached significance, into a genetic and an environmental component. The genetic correlations were 0.61 between the E and Ea peaks and 0.90 between the A and Aa peaks. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated moderate heritability for LV mass as well as the mitral annular Ea and Aa peaks. We also found significant genetic correlations between the E and Ea peaks and between the A and Aa peaks. Our current findings support the ongoing research to map and detect genetic variants that contribute to the variation in LV mass and other LV structural and functional phenotypes.

With a bang, not a whimper: Pricking Germany's "stock market bubble" in 1927 and the slide into depression

In May 1927, the German central bank intervenedindirectly to reduce lending to equity investors.The crash that followed ended the only stockmarket boom during Germany s relative stabilization 1924-28. This paper examines thefactors that lead to the intervention as well asits consequences. We argue that genuine concernabout the exuberant level of the stock market,in addition to worries about an inflow offoreign funds, tipped the scales in favour ofintervention. The evidence strongly suggeststhat the German central bank under HjalmarSchacht was wrong to be concerned aboutstockprices-there was no bubble. Also, theReichsbank was mistaken in its belief thata fall in the market would reduce theimportance of short-term foreign borrowing,and help to ease conditions in the money market.The misguided intervention had important realeffects. Investment suffered, helping to tipGermany into depression.

Plataforma Off-shore com Turbina Eólica Simulação e Controlo

O objetivo deste trabalho é o de simular e controlar a plataforma de um aerogerador flutuante. Este aerogerador flutuante consiste numa plataforma do tipo semi-submersível, nomeadamente o DeepCwind acoplado a um aerogerador de 5 MW, mais especificamente o NREL offshore 5-MW baseline wind turbine. Descreve-se o modelo físico do aerogerador flutuante, a formulação teórica a ele subjacente, bem como a caraterização dos diferentes estados do vento e do mar utilizados para simulação. O modelo não linear do aerogerador flutuante foi simulado, utilizando o FAST como emulador do aerogerador flutuante, para condições ambientais determinísticas, por forma a compreender a dinâmica associada à plataforma. Modelos lineares foram obtidos, por linearização do modelo não linear, aplicando técnicas de identificação de sistemas e utilizando o módulo de linearização do simulador FAST. Estes modelos foram posteriormente comparados, utilizando um único modelo para síntese de controladores. Controladores esses, desenvolvidos com base num modelo linear simplificado que consiste no pitch da plataforma, transformando o problema global da plataforma num problema bidimensional. Projetou-se um controlador proporcional-integral-derivativo (PID) e um controlador em espaço de estados por colocação de pólos. A simulação do modelo não linear, com o controlo do pitch da plataforma, para diferentes condições ambientais, demonstrou o bom desempenho dos controladores. Foi possível com ambos os controladores garantir os requisitos do sistema controlado, em que se exigia que se evitasse ressonâncias e em que o pitch da plataforma fosse nulo, por forma a garantir a perpendicularidade do plano das pás (plano do rotor) do aerogerador em relação à direção do vento.

Crossing the Rio Grande: Migrations, business cycles and the welfare state

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of an inflow oflow-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation and two types of agents. We find that there are substantial dynamic effects following unexpected migrations with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of the capital stock. We look at the interrelations between these dynamic effects and three different fiscal systems for the redistribution of income and find that these schemes can change the dynamics and lead to prolonged periods of adjustments. Theaggregate welfare implications are sensitive to the welfare system: while there are welfare gains without redistribution, these gains may be turned into costs when the state engages in redistribution.

PREVISÃO DA ENERGIA EÓLICA - SANTIAGO - CABO VERDE

Neste trabalho procura-se utilizar modelos de previsão de séries temporais para prever a produção da energia elétrica a partir da energia eólica em Cabo Verde, particularmente na ilha de Santiago. É um problema que tem recebido especial atenção dos pesquisadores nos últimos anos. Prever o futuro, e em especial o comportamento de séries temporais, é fundamental em análises e apoio à tomada de decisões, e continua sendo um desafio para a estatística e para computação. Foram utilizados modelos, Holt-Winters, ARIMA e redes neuronais artificiais, Função de Base Radial (RNAs-RBF) e Perceptron de múltiplas camadas (RNAs- MLP). O modelo Holt-Winters é um modelo de previsão exponencial, conhecido por lidar com elementos de tendência e sazonalidade de uma série temporal. O modelo ARIMA que possui apenas uma variável, descreve o comportamento de uma variável em termos de seus valores passados. As redes neurais têm-se mostrado grandes ferramentas na aplicação de previsões de séries temporais. Neste contexto, neste trabalho propõe-se a realização de uma análise comparativa desses modelos não-lineares para a previsão, tentando encontrar qual o modelo que melhor se adapta à série temporal. Todo o trabalho foi realizado com recurso ao programa estatístico R versão 3.0.1 (2013-05- 16)

A new species of Solepyris Azevedo (Hymenoptera, Bethylidae) from Brazil, with amended diagnosis of the genus

Solepyris Azevedo is a rarely collected Neotropical genus. It is differentiated from other Sclerodermini genera by having the fore wing venation with a single large closed cell and currently is monotypic containing S. unicus Azevedo. A second species, Solepyris montuosus, sp. nov., from Brazil is described and illustrated. This new species is diagnosed by having radial vein of the fore wing long. An amended diagnosis of Solepyris unicus Azevedo is included. A key for the two species of Solepyris is provided.

Immigration and the survival of the welfare state

This paper analyzes the political sustainability of the welfare state in a model where immigration policy is also endogenous. In the model, the skills of the native population are affected by immigration and skill accumulation. Moreover, immigrants affect future policies, once they gain the right to vote. The main finding is that the long-run survival of redistributive policies is linked to an immigration policy specifying both skill and quantity restrictions. In particular, in steady state the unskilled majority admits a limited inflow of unskilled immigrants in order to offset growth in the fraction of skilled voters and maintain a high degree of income redistribution.Interestingly, equilibrium immigration policy shifts from unrestricted skilled immigration,when the country is skill-scarce, to restricted unskilled immigration, as the fraction of native skilled workers increases. The analysis also suggests a new set of variables that may help explain international differences in immigration restrictions.