The war of nerves with Iran - consequences for the South Caucasus and Russia. OSW Commentary No. 75, 2012-04-25

Tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme have risen considerably in recent months. This has been visible in numerous threats of – and much speculation about – an imminent Israeli (and US) attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. In this context, the support for the attacks that the countries of the South Caucasus (and Azerbaijan in particular) could provide has been the subject of lively debate, as has been the prospect of a Russian political and military offensive in the Caucasus in response to the attacks on Iran. It seems that the ongoing war campaign in the media has been aimed primarily at putting pressure on Iran and the international community to find a political solution to the Iranian problem. This also applies to the Caucasus’s involvement in the campaign. Given the outcome of the Istanbul round of talks on a political solution to the Iranian issue (14 April), which warrants moderate optimism, the threat of a conflict now appears more distant and this also indirectly proves the effectiveness of the campaign. The war of nerves with Iran, however, is already now actually affecting the stability of the Southern Caucasus. While it seems that Azerbaijan is not Israel’s partner in the preparations to attacks, and that there is no real link between the Iranian problem and the ongoing and planned movements of Russian troops in the Caucasus, the tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are indeed high. Moreover, the global image of the Caucasus is deteriorating, the USA’s position in the region is becoming more complicated, and Russia’s room for manoeuvre is expanding.

Neogene radiolarian datum levels in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans

Fifty radiolarian events of early Pleistocene and Neogene age were identified in an E-W transect of equatorial DSDP sites, extending from the Gulf of Panama to the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. Our objective was to document the degree of synchroneity or time-transgressiveness of stratigraphically-useful datum levels from this geologic time interval. We restricted our study to low latitudes within which morphological variations of individual taxa are minimal, the total assemblage diversity remains high, and stratigraphic continuity is well-documented by an independent set of criteria. Each of the five sites chosen (503, 573, 289/586, 214) was calibrated to an "absolute" time scale, using a multiple of planktonic foraminiferal, nannofossil, and diatom datum levels which have been independently correlated to the paleomagnetic polarity time scale in piston core material. With these correlations we have assigned "absolute" ages to each radiolarian event, with a precision of 0.1-0.2 m.y. and an accuracy of 0.2-0.4 m.y. On this basis we have classified each of the events as either: (a) synchronous (range of ages <0.4 m.y.); (b) time-transgressive (i.e., range of ages >1.0 m.y.); and (c) not resolvable (range of ages 0.4-1.0 m.y.). Our results show that, among the synchronous datum levels, a large majority (15 out of 19) are last occurrences. Among those events which are clearly time-transgressive, most are first appearances (10 out of 13). In many instances taxa appear to evolve first in the Indian Ocean, and subsequently in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is particularly unexpected in view of the strong east-to-west zonal flow in equatorial latitudes. Three of the time-transgressive events have been used to define zonal boundaries: the first appearances of Spongaster pentas, Diartus hughesi, and D. petterssoni. Our results suggest that biostratigraphic non-synchroneity may be substantial (i.e., greater than 1 m.y.) within a given latitudinal zone; one would expect this effect to be even more pronounced across oceanographic and climatic gradients. We anticipate that the extent of diachroneity may be comparable for diatom, foraminiferal, and nannofossil datum levels as well. If this proves true, global "time scales" may need to be re-formulated on the basis of a smaller number of demonstrably synchronous events.

The North Sea autumn spawning Herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)

The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.

Clay mineralogy of ODP Site 131-808 sediments

Drill core recovered at Ocean Drilling Program Site 808 (Leg 131) proves that the wedge of trench sediment within the central region of the Nankai Trough comprises approximately 600 m of hemipelagic mud, sandy turbidites, and silty turbidites. The stratigraphic succession thickens and coarsens upward, with hemipelagic muds and volcanic-ash layers of the Shikoku Basin overlain by silty and sandy trench-wedge deposits. Past investigations of clay mineralogy and sand petrography within this region have led to the hypothesis that most of the detritus in the Nankai Trough was derived from the Izu-Honshu collision zone and transported southwestward via axial turbidity currents. Shipboard analyses of paleocurrent indicators, on the other hand, show that most of the ripple cross-laminae within silty turbidites of the outer marginal trench-wedge facies are inclined to the north and northwest; thus, many of the turbidity currents reflected off the seaward slope of the trench rather than moving straight down the trench axis. Shore-based analyses of detrital clay minerals demonstrate that the hemipelagic muds and matrix materials within sandy and silty turbidites are all enriched in illite; chlorite is the second-most abundant clay mineral, followed by smectite. In general, the relative mineral percentages change relatively little as a function of depth, and the hemipelagic clay-mineral population is virtually identical to the turbidite-matrix population. Comparisons between different size fractions (<2 µm and 2-6 µm) show modest amounts of mineral partitioning, with chlorite content increasing in the coarser fraction and smectite increasing in the finer fraction. Values of illite crystallinity index are consistent with conditions of advanced anchimetamorphism and epimetamorphism within the source region. Of the three mica polytypes detected, the 2M1 variety dominates over the 1M and 1Md polytypes; these data are consistent with values of illite crystallinity. Measurements of mica bo lattice spacing show that the detrital illite particles were eroded from a zone of intermediate-pressure metamorphism. Collectively, these data provide an excellent match with the lithologic and metamorphic character of the Izu-Honshu collision zone. Data from Leg 131, therefore, confirm the earlier interpretations of detrital provenance. The regional pattern of sediment dispersal is dominated by a combination of southwest-directed axial turbidity currents, radial expansion of the axial flows, oblique movement of suspended clouds onto and beyond the seaward slope of the Nankai Trough, and flow reflection back toward the trench axis.

Age model and stable isotopes of sediment core RC17-177

A careful comparison is made between the most detailed records of sea level over the last glacial cycle, and two high-quality oxygen isotope records. One is a high-resolution benthonic record that contains superb detail but proves to record temperature change as well as ice volume; the other is a planktonic record from the west equatorial Pacific where the temperature effect may be minimal but where high resolution is not available. A combined record is generated which may be a better approximation to ice volume than was previously available. This approach cannot yet be applied to the whole Pleistocene. However, comparison of glacial extremes suggests that glacial extremes of stages 12 and 16 significantly exceeded the last glacial maximum as regards ice volume and hence as regards sea level lowering. Interglacial stages 7, 13, 15, 17 and 19 did not attain Holocene oxygen isotope values; possibly the sea did not reach its present level. It is unlikely that sea level was glacio-eustatically higher than present by more than a few metres during any interglacial of the past 2.5 million years.

Nucleation of voids in metals during diffusion and creep /

Experimental evidence is presented which proves that voids formed during diffusion in brass are heterogeneously nucleated. The nuclei appear to be oxide particles, probably ZnO. When these are removed by re-melting, voids practically do not form upon subsequent dezincification. Brass which had been freed of void nucleation catalysts exhibited a considerably reduced tendency for grain boundary cracking during creep, and increased stress-rupture life.

Why do US banks borrow from the Fed? A fresh look at the ‘reluctance’ phenomenon

The role of several theoretical factors in determining the demand of US banks for borrowed reserves from the Fed is empirically investigated. The main objective is to isolate the candidate(s) most likely responsible for the recent observed phenomenon of banks reluctance to borrow from the Fed, particularly since the mid-1980s. The results indicate that the declining number of banks due to mergers and consolidations holds much of the weight for explaining the weakened demand for borrowed reserves since the mid-1980s. Consistent evidence is found suggesting that US banks may have been unlawfully exploiting the discount window service for profit-taking purposes. This finding proves credible and suggests the need for further loan scrutiny at the Federal discount window.

The appropriateness and use of focus group methodology across international mental health communities

The ability to interpret collected data across international mental health communities often proves to be difficult. The following paper reports on the use and appropriateness of focus group methodology in helping to Clarify issues that could help substantiate data collection and comparison across different cultures and regions. Field tests of the focus group methodology were undertaken in different regions and this paper describes an overview of the final field test in Sofia, Bulgaria. The findings and experiences with utilizing this methodology were incorporated in subsequent data collections.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future long-horizon performance measurement conditional on past survival

This paper examines the measurement of long-horizon abnormal performance when stock selection is conditional on an extended period of past survival. Filtering on survival results in a sample driven towards more-established, frequently traded stocks and this has implications for the choice of benchmark used in performance measurement (especially in the presence of the well-documented size effect). A simulation study is conducted to document the properties of commonly employed performance measures conditional on past survival. The results suggest that the popular index benchmarks used in long-horizon event studies are severely biased and yield test statistics that are badly misspecified. In contrast, a matched-stock benchmark based on size and industry performs consistently well. Also, an eligible-stock index designed to mitigate the influence of the size effect proves effective.

Cluster analysis of high-dimensional data: A case study

Normal mixture models are often used to cluster continuous data. However, conventional approaches for fitting these models will have problems in producing nonsingular estimates of the component-covariance matrices when the dimension of the observations is large relative to the number of observations. In this case, methods such as principal components analysis (PCA) and the mixture of factor analyzers model can be adopted to avoid these estimation problems. We examine these approaches applied to the Cabernet wine data set of Ashenfelter (1999), considering the clustering of both the wines and the judges, and comparing our results with another analysis. The mixture of factor analyzers model proves particularly effective in clustering the wines, accurately classifying many of the wines by location.

On stability in nonsequential MIMO QFT designs

This paper reexamines the stability of uncertain closed-loop systems resulting from the nonsequential (NS) MIMO QFT design methodology. By combining the effect of satisfying both the robust stability and robust performance specifications in a NS MIMO QFT design, a proof for the stability of the uncertain closed-loop system is derived. The stability theorem proves that, subject to the satisfaction of a critical necessary and sufficient condition, the original NS MIMO QFT design methodology will provide a robustly stable closed-loop system. This necessary and sufficient condition provides a useful existence test for a successful NS MIMO QFT design. The results expose the salient features of the NS MIMO QFT design methodology. Two 2 x 2 MIMO design examples are presented to illustrate the key features of the stability, theorem.