Simultaneous volatility transmissions and spillover effects: U.S. and Hong Kong stock and futures markets

Contemporaneous transmission effects across volatilities of the Hong Kong Stock and Index futures markets and futures volume of trade are tested by employing a structural systems approach. Competing measures of volatility spillover, constructed from the overnight U.S. S&P500 index futures, are tested and found to impact on the Hong Kong asset return volatility and volume of trade patterns. The examples utilize intra-day 15-min sampled data from this medium-sized Asia Pacific equity and derivative exchange. Both the intra- and inter-day patterns in the Hong Kong market are allowed for in the estimation process.

A comprehensive formal ranking of the popularity of financial ratios in multivariate modeling of corporate collapse

This paper provides a fonnal ranking of the popularity of financial ratios in modeling corporate collapse. The analysis identified 48 financial ratios and ranked them according to their usefulness as portrayed in 53 studies that have utilized such ratios in modeling corporate collapse. The methodologies adopted in those studies are predominantly of the "multivariate" type. The 53 studies extend from 1966 to 2002, inclusive.

Benchmark generation algorithm for stochastic mixed model assembly shop simulation and optimization

The Operations Research (OR) community have defined many deterministic manufacturing control problems mainly focused on scheduling. Well-defined benchmark problems provide a mechanism for communication of the effectiveness of different optimization algorithms. Manufacturing problems within industry are stochastic and complex. Common features of these problems include: variable demand, machine part specific breakdown patterns, part machine specific process durations, continuous production, Finished Goods Inventory (FGI) buffers, bottleneck machines and limited production capacity. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a commonly used tool for studying manufacturing systems of realistic complexity. There are few reports of detail-rich benchmark problems for use within the simulation optimization community that are as complex as those faced by production managers. This work details an algorithm that can be used to create single and multistage production control problems. The reported software implementation of the algorithm generates text files in eXtensible Markup Language (XML) format that are easily edited and understood as well as being cross-platform compatible. The distribution and acceptance of benchmark problems generated with the algorithm would enable researchers working on simulation and optimization of manufacturing problems to effectively communicate results to benefit the field in general.

A reduced-order linear functional observer for linear stochastic systems

This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a reduced-order linear functional state observer for linear stochastic systems. The order of the observer is the same as the dimension of the vectors to be estimated. A simple design algorithm is given together with a numerical example to illustrate the simplicity of the design procedure.

Contemporaneous intra-day volume, option, and futures volatility transmissions across parallel markets

The primary objective of this article is to investigate volatility transmission across three parallel markets operating on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE), both within and out of sample. Half-hourly observations are sampled from transaction data for the share price index (SPI) futures, SPI futures options, and 90-day bank accepted bill (BAB) futures markets, and the analysis is carried out using the simultaneous volatility (SVL) system of equations as well as competing volatility models. The results confirm the poor ability of GARCH models to fit intraday data. This study also applies an artificial nesting procedure to evaluate the out-of-sample volatility forecasts. Implied volatility has very limited (if any) predictive power when evaluated in isolation, whereas the SVL model with implied volatility embedded provides incremental information relative to competing model forecasts.

Possibilities to include in numerical simulation stochastic and discontinuous phenomena occurring in material

Simulation of materials processing has to face new difficulties regarding proper description of various discontinuous and stochastic phenomena occurring in materials. Commonly used rheological models based on differential equations treat material as continuum and are unable to describe properly several important phenomena. That is the reason for ongoing search for alternative models, which can account for non-continuous structure of the materials and for the fact, that various phenomena in the materials occur in different scales from nano to mezo. Accounting for the stochastic character of some phenomena is an additional challenge. One of the solutions may be the coupled Cellular Automata (CA) – Finite Element (FE) multi scale model. A detailed discussion about the advantages given by the developed multi scale CAFE model for strain localization phenomena in contrast to capabilities provided by the conventional FE approaches is a subject of this work. Results obtained from the CAFE model are supported by the experimental observations showing influence of many discontinuities existing in the real material on macroscopic response. An immense capabilities of the CAFE approach in comparison to limitations of the FE method for modeling of real material behavior is are shown this work as well.

Modelling oil price volatility

In this paper, we examine the volatility of crude oil price using daily data for the period 1991–2006. Our main innovation is that we examine volatility in various sub-samples in order to judge the robustness of our results. Our main findings can be summarised as follows: (1) across the various sub-samples, there is inconsistent evidence of asymmetry and persistence of shocks; and (2) over the full sample period, evidence suggests that shocks have permanent effects, and asymmetric effects, on volatility. These findings imply that the behaviour of oil prices tends to change over short periods of time.

Do retail option traders know better about market volatility?

This paper examines the informational content and predictive power of implied volatility over different forecasting horizons in a sample of European covered warrants traded in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. The empirical results show that time-series-based volatility forecasts outperform implied volatility forecast as a predictor of future volatility. The finding also suggests that implied volatility is biased and informationally inefficient. The results are attributable to the fact in Hong Kong and Singapore the covered warrants markets are dominated by retail investors, who tend to use covered warrants' leverage to speculate on the price movements of the underlying rather than to express their view on volatility.