Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

The social impacts of heat waves

The effects of the 2003 European heat wave have highlighted the need for society to prepare itself for and cope more effectively with heat waves. This is particularly important in the context of predicted climate change and the likelihood of more frequent extreme climate events; to date, heat as a natural hazard has been largely ignored. In order to develop better coping strategies, this report explores the factors that shape the social impacts of heat waves, and sets out a programme of research to address the considerable knowledge gaps in this area. Heat waves, or periods of anomalous warmth, do not affect everyone; it is the vulnerable individuals or sectors of society who will most experience their effects. The main factors of vulnerability are being elderly, living alone, having a pre-existing disease, being immobile or suffering from mental illness and being economically disadvantaged. The synergistic effects of such factors may prove fatal for some. Heat waves have discernible impacts on society including a rise in mortality, an increased strain on infrastructure (power, water and transport) and a possible rise in social disturbance. Wider impacts may include effects on the retail industry, ecosystem services and tourism. Adapting to more frequent heat waves should include soft engineering options and, where possible, avoid the widespread use of air conditioning which could prove unsustainable in energy terms. Strategies for coping with heat include changing the way in which urban areas are developed or re-developed, and setting up heat watch warning systems based around weather and seasonal climate forecasting and intervention strategies. Although heat waves have discernible effects on society, much remains unknown about their wider social impacts, diffuse health issues and how to manage them.

Estimating oceanic heat content change using isotherms

This paper presents a new analysis of ocean heat content changes over the last 50 yr using isotherms by calculating the mean temperature above the 148C isotherm and the depth of the 148C isotherm as separate variables. A new quantity called the ‘‘relative heat content’’ (‘‘RHC’’) is introduced, which represents the minimum local heat content change over time, relative to a fixed isotherm. It is shown how mean temperature and isotherm depth changes make separable and additive contributions to changes in RHC. Maps of RHC change between 1970 and 2000 show similar spatial patterns to a traditional fixed-depth ocean heat content change to 220 m. However, the separate contributions to RHC suggest a more spatially uniform contribution from warming above the isotherm, while isotherm depth changes show wind-driven signals, of which some are identifiable as being related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The time series show that the warming contribution to RHC dominates the global trend, while the depth contribution only dominates on the basin scale in the North Atlantic. The RHC shows minima associated with the major volcanic eruptions (particularly in the Indian Ocean), and these are entirely contributed by mean temperature changes rather than isotherm depth changes. The depth change contributions to RHC are strongly affected by the recently reported XBT fall-rate bias, whereas the mean temperature contributions are not. Therefore, only the isotherm depth change contributions toRHCwill need to be reassessed as fall-rate-corrected data become available.

Effect of combined heat and high-pressure treatments on the texture of chicken breast muscle (Pectoralis fundus)

Commercially supplied chicken breast muscle was subjected to simultaneous heat and pressure treatments. Treatment conditions ranged from ambient temperature to 70 °C and from 0.1 to 800 MPa, respectively, in various combinations. Texture profile analysis (TPA) of the treated samples was performed to determine changes in muscle hardness. At treatment temperatures up to and including 50 °C, heat and pressure acted synergistically to increase muscle hardness. However, at 60 and 70 °C, hardness decreased following treatments in excess of 200 MPa. TPA was performed on extracted myofibrillar protein gels that after treatment under similar conditions revealed similar effects of heat and pressure. Differential scanning calorimetry analysis of whole muscle samples revealed that at ambient pressure the unfolding of myosin was completed at 60 °C, unlike actin, which completely denatured only above 70 °C. With simultaneous pressure treatment at >200 MPa, myosin and actin unfolded at 20 °C. Unfolding of myosin and actin could be induced in extracted myofibrillar protein with simultaneous treatment at 200 MPa and 40 °C. Electrophoretic analysis indicated high pressure/temperature regimens induced disulfide bonding between myosin chains.

Effects of different calcium salts on properties of milk related to heat stability

Insoluble calcium salts were added to milk to increase total calcium by 30 mM, without changing properties influencing heat stability, such as pH and ionic calcium. There were no major signs of instability associated with coagulation, sediment formation or fouling when subjected to ultra high temperature (UHT) and in-container sterilisation. The buffering capacity was also unaltered. On the other hand, addition of soluble calcium salts reduced pH, increased ionic calcium and caused coagulation to occur. Calcium chloride showed the largest destabilising effect, followed by calcium lactate and calcium gluconate. Milk became unstable to UHT processing at lower calcium additions compared to in-container sterilisation.

Heat tolerance in groundnut

Tolerance to high soil and air temperature during the reproductive phase is an important component of adaptation to and and semi-arid cropping environments in groundnut. Between 10 and 22 genotypes were screened for tolerance to high air and soil temperature in controlled environments. To assess tolerance to high soil temperature, 10 genotypes were grown from start of podding to harvest at ambient (28 degrees) and high (38 degreesC) soil temperatures, and crop growth rate (CGR), pod growth rate (PGR) and partitioning (ratio PGR:CGR) measured. To assess tolerance to high air temperature during two key stages-microsporogenesis (3-6 days before flowering, DBF) and flowering, fruit-set was measured in two experiments. In the first experiment, 12 genotypes were exposed to short (3-6 days) episodes of high (38 degreesC) day air temperature at 6 DBF and at flowering. In the second experiment, 22 genotypes were exposed to 40 degreesC day air temperature for I day at 6 DBF, 3 DBF or at flowering. Cellular membrane thermostability (relative injury, RI) was also measured in these 22 genotypes. There was considerable variation among genotypes in response to high temperature, whether assessed by growth rates, fruit-set or RI. Pod weight at high soil temperature was associated with variation in CGR rather than partitioning. Flowering was more sensitive to high air temperature than microsporogenesis. Genotypes tolerant to high air temperature at microsporogenesis were not necessarily tolerant at flowering, and nor was tolerance correlated with RI. Six genotypes (796, 55-437, ICG 1236, ICGV 86021, lCGV 87281 and ICGV 92121) were identified as heat tolerant based on their performance in all tests. These experiments have shown that groundnut genotypes can be easily screened for reproductive tolerance to high air and soil temperature and that several sources of heat tolerance are available in groundnut germplasm. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenotyping parents of mapping populations of rice for heat tolerance during anthesis

Seed set of rice (Oryza sativa L.) is highly sensitive to short episodes of high temperature at anthesis events that are likely to be more frequent in future climates. Breeding for tolerance is therefore an essential component of adaptation to climate variability and change. Experiments were conducted in 2003 and 2004 at optimum (30 degrees C daytime) and high (35 and 38 degrees C) air temperature using parents of some prominent mapping populations (i) to determine whether there were differences in the daily flowering pattern and hence a potential heat avoidance mechanism, and (ii) to identify rice genotypes having true heat tolerance during anthesis, that is, high seed set in spikelets exposed to high temperature. Rice cultivar CG14 (O. glaberrima) reached peak anthesis earlier in the morning (1.5 h after dawn) under both control (30 degrees C) and high (38 degrees C) temperature conditions than O. sativa genotypes (>= 3 h after dawn). Exposure to high temperature (centered on the time of peak anthesis) for 6 h reduced spikelet fertility more than exposure for 2 h, and fertility was lower at 38 degrees C than at 35 degrees C. Genotypic ranking for spikelet fertility at 35 and 38 degrees C was highly correlated in both 2003 and 2004. Fertility was also highly correlated across years, suggesting a consistent and reproducible response of spikelet fertility to temperature. The check cultivar N22 was the most heat tolerant genotype (64-86% fertility at 38 degrees C) and cultivars Azucena and Moroberekan the most susceptible (<8%).

Differential susceptibilities of peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) to foliar insecticides on partially resistant and susceptible potato cultivars

In a field experiment the effects of Sumicidin (super) 5EC (fenitrothion), Metasystox EC25 (oxydemeton-methyl) and Tamaron SL600 (methamidophos), applied at different dosages, were evaluated against peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) and its parasitoid Aphidius matricariae Haliday on Cardinal and Desiree (respectively partially resistant and susceptible potato cultivars to M. persicae). Sumicidin (super) 5EC was found about 30% more effective in reducing aphid populations than the other insecticides tested. The highest doses of each insecticide caused maximum aphid mortality; in general aphid mortality appeared dose dependent. Almost all the higher and lower doses of the tested insecticides were about 19% more effective on Cardinal than on Desiree. The most significant result was the synergistic interaction at the lower doses with plant resistance, so that the same level of control was recorded with second highest dose on Cardinal as with the highest dose on Desiree. Also the same control level was achieved at the lowest dosage rate on Cardinal compared with the next higher dose on the Desiree. Sumicidin (super) 5EC was found least toxic to the parasitoid, A. matricariae in terms of percent parasitism, emergence of parasitoids and number of mature eggs in the emerging female parasitoids; increase of about 22, 67 and 47% respectively were found in parasitoid performance with Tamaron SL600 which was found comparatively highly toxic. The highest doses of all insecticides were found clearly toxic to the parasitoid. In general, effects on the parasitoid were dose dependent. Maximum yield was obtained from the second highest dose of Sumicidin (super) 5EC.

Selective toxicity of different granular insecticides to the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) in two differentially resistant potato cultivars

Field studies were conducted in Pakistan to examine the effects and the interaction of two differentially resistant potato cultivars i.e. Cardinal and Desiree (one partially resistant and one susceptible to Myzus persicae (Sulzer), respectively) with different dosage rates of granular insecticides, at different time intervals after application in relation to percent kill of M. persicae and effects on the parasitoid Aphidius matricariae Haliday (i.e. the third trophic level) within the aphid mummies, percent parasitism and Thimet 10G (phorate) was found about 30% more effective in reducing aphid population than the Furadan 3G (carbofuran). The highest doses of each insecticide caused maximum aphid mortality, in general aphid mortality appeared dose dependent. Mostly all the higher and lower doses of the tested insecticides were about 10% more effective on Cardinal than on Desiree. The most significant result was the synergistic interaction at the lower doses with plant resistance, so that the same level of control was recorded with the second highest dose on Cardinal as with the highest dose on Desiree. Also the same level of control was observed at the lowest dose on Cardinal as with the second last lowest dose on Desiree. Furadan 3G was found least toxic to the A. matricariae in terms of percent parasitism, emergence of parasitoids and number of mature eggs in the emerging females. Furadan 3G gave 13, 15 and 6% higher figures, respectively from the parasitoid characteristics than Thimet 10G. The highest doses of both insecticides were clearly toxic to the parasitoid. In general, the effects on the parasitoid were dose dependent. The second highest dose of Thimet 10G, gave the maximum yield

Heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana explored by multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic labeling

We have developed a general method for multiplexed quantitative proteomics using differential metabolic stable isotope labeling and mass spectrometry. The method was successfully used to study the dynamics of heat-shock response in Arabidopsis thaliana. A number of known heat-shock proteins were confirmed, and some proteins not previously associated with heat shock were discovered. The method is applicable in stable isotope labeling and allows for high degrees of multiplexing.

Relationship between resistance factors and treatment efficacy when bromadiolone was used against anticoagulant-resistant Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berk.) in Wales

We investigated the relationship between the severity and incidence of resistance among Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) on a farm in Wales and the subsequent outcome of a practical rodent control operation. Bromadiolone resistance factors were estimated for rats trapped on the farm using the blood clotting response test, and were found to be 2 to 3 for male rats and approximately 6 for females. The incidence of resistance in the rat population was high. Infestation size was estimated by census baiting and tracking, and was found to be substantial, with a maximum of 6.5 kg of bait being eaten on a single night. A proprietary rodenticide (Deadline (TM)), containing 0.005% bromadiolone, was used to control the infestation. The duration of baiting was 35 days and, according to the two methods of assessment used, treatment success was in the region of 87 and 93%. No evidence was observed of a significant impact of resistance on the rat control operation, and the remaining rats of this very heavy infestation would probably have been controlled if baiting had continued for longer.

Metabolism of Maillard reaction products by the human gut microbiota - implications for health

The human colonic microbiota imparts metabolic versatility on the colon, interacts at many levels in healthy intestinal and systemic metabolism, and plays protective roles in chronic disease and acute infection. Colonic bacterial metabolism is largely dependant on dietary residues from the upper gut. Carbohydrates, resistant to digestion, drive colonic bacterial fermentation and the resulting end products are considered beneficial. Many colonic species ferment proteins but the end products are not always beneficial and include toxic compounds, such as amines and phenols. Most components of a typical Western diet are heat processed. The Maillard reaction, involving food protein and sugar, is a complex network of reactions occurring during thermal processing. The resultant modified protein resists digestion in the small intestine but is available for colonic bacterial fermentation. Little is known about the fate of the modified protein but some Maillard reaction products (MRP) are biologically active by, e.g. altering bacterial population levels within the colon or, upon absorption, interacting with human disease mechanisms by induction of inflammatory responses. This review presents current understanding of the interactions between MRP and intestinal bacteria. Recent scientific advances offering the possibility of elucidating the consequences of microbe-MRP interactions within the gut are discussed.