985 resultados para forecast combination


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Mode of access: Internet.

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At head of cover title: Generalized computer program.

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Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

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BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) is the primary objective in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Results from a recent clinical trial of patients with previously untreated CHC demonstrate that the combination of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin produces a greater SVR than interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin combination therapy. However, the cost-effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin in the U.S. setting has not been investigated. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with CHC using genotype to guide treatment duration. SVR and disease progression parameters were derived from the clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. The impact of treatment on life expectancy and costs were projected for a lifetime. Patients who had an SVR were assumed to remain virus-free for the rest of their lives. In genotype 1 patients, the SVRs were 46% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 36% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. In genotype 2/3 patients, the SVRs were 76% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 61% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Quality of life and costs were based on estimates from the literature. All costs were based on published U.S. medical care costs and were adjusted to 2003 U.S. dollars. Costs and benefits beyond the first year were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In genotype 1, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) by 0.70 yr compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, producing a cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,600 per QALY gained. In genotype 2/3 patients, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases QALY by 1.05 yr in comparison to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Peginterferon alpha-2a combination therapy in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 is dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Results weighted by genotype prevalence (75% genotype 1; 25% genotype 2 or 3) also show that peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin is dominant. Peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin remained cost-effective (below $16,500 per QALY gained) under sensitivity analyses on key clinical and cost parameters. CONCLUSION: Peginterferon alpha-2a in combination with ribavirin with duration of therapy based on genotype, is cost-effective compared with conventional interferon alpha-2b in combination with ribavirin when given to treatment-naive adults with CHC.

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Background/Aims: Peginterferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin improves sustained virological responses compared with interferon alfa-2b and ribavirin, or peginterferon alfa-2a alone in chronic hepatitis C. We examined the impact of these treatments on health related quality of life (HRQOL). Methods: Patients (n = 1121) were randomized to peginterferon alfa-2a weekly plus ribavirin or placebo, or interferon alfa-2b thrice weekly plus ribavirin. HRQOL was assessed with the SF-36 Health Survey and Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). Results: Patients receiving peginterferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin reported better HRQOL than those receiving interferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin. These differences were statistically significant for three SF-36 domains and both FSS scores (p < = 0.05). Patients receiving peginterferon alfa-2a plus placebo had the least impairment; adding ribavirin significantly decreased five domains of the SF-36 and both FSS scores. Sustained virological response was associated with improvement at follow-up on all SF-36 and FSS scores. Conclusions: The effects of combination therapy on HRQOL and fatigue are less with peginterferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin than interferon alfa-2b plus ribavirin. Each medication in combination therapy with interferon and ribavirin, affects patients' quality of life differently. Understanding the relationship of specific therapeutic options to HRQOL may help physicians minimize the impact of therapy on HRQOL. (C) 2004 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A theoretical model was developed to investigate the relationships among subordinate-manager gender combinations, perceived leadership style, experienced frustration and optimism, organization-based self-esteem and organizational commitment. The model was tested within the context of a probabilistic structural model, a discrete Bayesian network, using cross-sectional data from a global pharmaceutical company. The Bayesian network allowed forward inference to assess the relative influence of gender combination and leadership style on the emotions, self-esteem and commitment consequence variables. Further, diagnostics from backward inference were used to assess the relative influence of variables antecedent to organizational commitment. The results showed that gender combination was independent of leadership style and had a direct impact on subordinates' levels of frustration and optimism. Female manager-female subordinate had the largest probability of optimism, while male manager teamed with a male subordinate had the largest probability of frustration. Furthermore, having a female manager teamed up with a male subordinate resulted in the lowest possibility of frustration. However, the findings show that the gender issue is not simply female managers versus male managers, but is concerned with the interaction of the subordinate-manager gender combination and leadership style in a nonlinear manner. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objective. To compare the efficacy of two forms of eye care (hypromellose and Lacri-Lube combination vs polyethylene/Cling wrap covers) for intensive care patients. Design. Randomised-controlled trial. Setting. University affiliated, tertiary referral hospital. Patients and participants. One hundred ten patients with a reduced or absent blink reflex were followed through until they regained consciousness, were discharged from the facility during study enrolment, died or developed a positive corneal ulcer or eye infection. Interventions. All patients received standard eye cleansing every 2 h. In addition to this, group one (n=60) received a treatment combining hypromellose drops and Lacri-Lube (HL) to each eye every 2 h. Group two (n=50) had polyethylene covers only placed over the eye to create a moisture chamber. Measurements and results. Corneal ulceration was determined using corneal fluorescein stains and mobile slit lamp evaluation, performed daily. No patients had corneal ulceration in the polyethylene cover group, but 4 patients had corneal ulceration in the HL group. Conclusions. Polyethylene covers are as effective as HL in reducing the incidence of corneal damage in intensive care patients.