Further insights on the French WISC-IV factor structure through Bayesian structural equation modeling

The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.

Heritability of left ventricular structure and function in Caucasian families.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the heritability as well as genetic and environmental correlations of left ventricular (LV) structural and functional traits in complex pedigrees of a Caucasian population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomly recruited 459 white European subjects from 52 families (50% women; mean age 45 years). LV structure was measured by M-mode and 2D echocardiography and LV function was measured by conventional Doppler and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Other measurements included blood pressure, anthropometric, and biochemical measurements. We estimated the heritability of LV traits while adjusting for covariables, including sex, age, body height and weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and heart rate. With full adjustment, heritability of LV mass was 0.23 (P= 0.025). The TDI-derived mitral annular velocities Ea and Aa showed moderate heritability (h(2)= 0.36 and 0.53, respectively), whereas the mitral inflow A peak had weak heritability (h(2) = 0.25) and the E peak was not heritable (h(2) = 0.11). We partitioned the total phenotypic correlation when it reached significance, into a genetic and an environmental component. The genetic correlations were 0.61 between the E and Ea peaks and 0.90 between the A and Aa peaks. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated moderate heritability for LV mass as well as the mitral annular Ea and Aa peaks. We also found significant genetic correlations between the E and Ea peaks and between the A and Aa peaks. Our current findings support the ongoing research to map and detect genetic variants that contribute to the variation in LV mass and other LV structural and functional phenotypes.

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective

This paper analyses the empirical interdependences among assetreturns, real activity and inflation from a multicountry and internationalpoint of view. We find that nominal stock returns are significantly relatedto inflation only in the US, that the US term structure of interest ratespredicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates while foreign termstructures do not have this predictive power and that innovations in inflationand exchange rates induce insignificant responses of real and financialvariables. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implicationsof the results are provided.

Dynamics and genetic structure of Argentine ant supercolonies in their native range.

Some introduced ant populations have an extraordinary social organization, called unicoloniality, whereby individuals mix freely within large supercolonies. We investigated whether this mode of social organization also exists in native populations of the Argentine ant Linepithema humile. Behavioral analyses revealed the presence of 11 supercolonies (width 1 to 515 m) over a 3-km transect. As in the introduced range, there was always strong aggression between but never within supercolonies. The genetic data were in perfect agreement with the behavioral tests, all nests being assigned to identical supercolonies with the different methods. There was strong genetic differentiation between supercolonies but no genetic differentiation among nests within supercolonies. We never found more than a single mitochondrial haplotype per supercolony, further supporting the view that supercolonies are closed breeding units. Genetic and chemical distances between supercolonies were positively correlated, but there were no other significant associations between geographic, genetic, chemical, and behavioral distances. A comparison of supercolonies sampled in 1999 and 2005 revealed a very high turnover, with about one-third of the supercolonies being replaced yearly. This dynamic is likely to involve strong competition between supercolonies and thus act as a potent selective force maintaining unicoloniality over evolutionary time.

Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Factor structure of the SOCRATES questionnaire in hospitalized medical patients.

The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES), a 19-item instrument developed to assess readiness to change alcohol use among individuals presenting for specialized alcohol treatment, has been used in various populations and settings. Its factor structure and concurrent validity has been described for specialized alcohol treatment settings and primary care. The purpose of this study was to determine the factor structure and concurrent validity of the SOCRATES among medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use not seeking help for specialized alcohol treatment. The subjects were 337 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use, identified during their hospital stay. Most of them had alcohol dependence (76%). We performed an Alpha Factor Analysis (AFA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the 19 SOCRATES items, and forced 3 factors and 2 components, in order to replicate findings from Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.) and Maisto et al. (Maisto, S. A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M. E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.). Our analysis supported the view that the 2 component solution proposed by Maisto et al. (Maisto, S.A., Conigliaro, J., McNeil, M., Kraemer, K., O'Connor, M., & Kelley, M.E., (1999). Factor structure of the SOCRATES in a sample of primary care patients. Addictive Behavior, 24(6), 879-892.) is more appropriate for our data than the 3 factor solution proposed by Miller and Tonigan (Miller, W. R., & Tonigan, J. S., (1996). Assessing drinkers' motivations for change: The Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale (SOCRATES). Psychology of Addictive Behavior, 10, 81-89.). The first component measured Perception of Problems and was more strongly correlated with severity of alcohol-related consequences, presence of alcohol dependence, and alcohol consumption levels (average number of drinks per day and total number of binge drinking days over the past 30 days) compared to the second component measuring Taking Action. Our findings support the view that the SOCRATES is comprised of two important readiness constructs in general medical patients identified by screening.

Tobin meets Oates: Solidarity and the optimal fiscal federal structure

We explore the implications for the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization when people spreferences for goods and services, which classic treatments of fiscal federalism (Oates, 1972)place in the purview of local governments, exhibit specific egalitarianism (Tobin, 1970), orsolidarity. We find that a system in which the central government provides a common minimumlevel of the publicly provided good, and local governments are allowed to use their ownresources to provide an even higher local level, performs better from an efficiency perspectiverelative to all other systems analyzed for a relevant range of preferences over solidarity.

Entrepreneurial structure of the mercantile company in pre-industrial Catalonia

The mercantile company was the basic form of enterprise in pre-industrial Catalonia. The aim of this paper is to study the formation and development of the mercantile companies in Barcelona whose end was the wholesale and retail sale of textiles in the botigues de teles (textile retail shops) throughout the eighteenth century. These firms were officially registered before a notary and their deeds reveal how these establishments were administered and managed.The study covers a sample of 121 mercantile companies, and the articles and documentation that were put into effect by 32 notaries who were active in Barcelona in the 18th century have been consulted in their entirety. From an initial selection of documentation, a total of 228 deeds registering companies have been found, 107 of which (47%) relate to the creation of companies whose various activities were centred in taverns, textile manufacturing, braiding.... While the 121 companies, which make up our sample and which account for 53% of the deeds registered with the notaries mentioned above, focused exclusively on the management of textile retail shops located in the commercial heart of the city. Thus one point of interest that the documentation reveals is that the majority of the mercantile companies registered by Barcelona notaries throughout the 18th century were establishments which traded in textiles. The first part of the article focuses on the structural characteristics of these enterprises, the number and socio-professional status of the partners and the extent of each partner s involvement in the administration and management. The second part of the article examines the capital investment made by each partner, their rights and obligations agreed on, the sharing out of profits and possible losses and the duration of the companies. The final aim of the paper is to highlight the evolution of these companies through one specific case.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Training in flexible intensive insulin therapy improves quality of life, decreases the risk of hypoglycaemia and ameliorates poor metabolic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: Intensified insulin therapy has evolved to be the standard treatment of type 1 diabetes. However, it has been reported to increase significantly the risk of hypoglycaemia. We studied the effect of structured group teaching courses in flexible insulin therapy (FIT) on psychological and metabolic parameters in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 45 type 1 diabetic patients of our outpatient clinic participating in 5 consecutive FIT teaching courses at the University Hospital of Basel. These courses consist of 7 weekly ambulatory evening group sessions. Patients were studied before and 1, 6, and 18 months after the course. Main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycaemic events, quality of life (DQoL), diabetes self-control (IPC-9) and diabetes knowledge (DWT). RESULTS: Quality of life, self-control and diabetes knowledge improved after the FIT courses (all p<0.001). The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic events decreased ten-fold from 0.33 episodes/6 months at baseline to 0.03 episodes/6 months after 18 months (p<0.05). Baseline HbA1c was 7.2+/-1.1% and decreased in the subgroup with HbA1c > or = 8% from 8.4% to 7.8% (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected, but relatively well-controlled population of type 1 diabetes, a structured, but not very time consuming FIT teaching programme in the outpatient setting improves psychological well-being and metabolic parameters.

A influência do e-learning no capital humano

Na Europa e nas últimas décadas do Século XX, a emergência da Sociedade de Informação veio impor às organizações a necessidade de que, para além das inovações tecnológicas, haja uma preocupação relativamente aos bens intangíveis como a informação, as novas metodologias de trabalho e o know how (Batista, 2002). Paralelamente a estas inovações, as Instituições de Ensino Superior têm contribuído para a evolução do Capital Humano, como ativo intangível intrínseco ao Homem. Em Portugal e no contexto do Ensino/Formação a Distância parecem continuar a existir, ainda, em algumas instituições, problemas de identificação, e de descriminação das vantagens no que concerne à estrutura aberta e flexível, com o estudante/formando a ter algumas dificuldades em adaptar o seu perfil e interesses profissionais ao tipo de aprendizagem que mais se lhe adequa. O e-learning surge como um método de Ensino/Formação a Distância, só possível com a especificidade dos processos pedagógicos e em complementaridade com as Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação (TIC), uma vez que são estas que lhe dão o suporte necessário à sua concretização. O e-learning ao proporcionar novas formas de comunicação, de interação e de confronto de ideias, permite uma aprendizagem baseada na partilha de saberes, tendo em consideração as experiências e os objetivos profissionais dos formandos. Dentro destes pressupostos, achámos importante fazer uma investigação a partir de Instituições de Ensino Superior Portuguesas, de modo a percebermos qual o papel e a influência que o e-learning desempenha nos objetivos das organizações académicas em geral e no Capital Humano dos seus Estudantes/Formandos em particular. A partir da questão da investigação foram definidos os objetivos e hipóteses de investigação de modo a que ao ser enunciada uma metodologia esta englobe fatores que foquem os elementos necessários à confirmação, ou não, dos pressupostos enunciados. Foi analisada documentação diversa, criado um questionário e conduzidas entrevistas, de modo a obter e potenciar a informação necessária e suficiente para o efeito. A recolha de dados para posterior análise e os resultados depois de interpretados, permitirão responder aos propósitos expressos desde o início da investigação.

Auctions of licences and market structure

This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to operate in amarket where those firms that obtain at least one licence then engage ina symmetric market game. I employ a new refinement of Nash equilibrium,the concept of {\sl Markovian recursively undominated equilibrium}.The unique solution satisfies the following properties: (i) when severalfirms own licences before the auction (incumbents), new entrants buylicences in each stage, and (ii) when there is no more than one incumbent,either the single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs inevery stage, depending on the parameter configuration.