Memory as discrimination: what distraction reveals

Recalling information involves the process of discriminating between relevant and irrelevant information stored in memory. Not infrequently, the relevant information needs to be selected from amongst a series of related possibilities. This is likely to be particularly problematic when the irrelevant possibilities are not only temporally or contextually appropriate but also overlap semantically with the target or targets. Here, we investigate the extent to which purely perceptual features which discriminate between irrelevant and target material can be used to overcome the negative impact of contextual and semantic relatedness. Adopting a distraction paradigm, it is demonstrated that when distracters are interleaved with targets presented either visually (Experiment 1) or auditorily (Experiment 2), a within-modality semantic distraction effect occurs; semantically-related distracters impact upon recall more than unrelated distracters. In the semantically-related condition, the number of intrusions in recall is reduced whilst the number of correctly recalled targets is simultaneously increased by the presence of perceptual cues to relevance (color features in Experiment 1 or speaker’s gender in Experiment 2). However, as demonstrated in Experiment 3, even presenting semantically-related distracters in a language and a sensory modality (spoken Welsh) distinct from that of the targets (visual English) is insufficient to eliminate false recalls completely, or to restore correct recall to levels seen with unrelated distracters . Together, the study shows how semantic and non-semantic discriminability shape patterns of both erroneous and correct recall.

Is DARTEL-based voxel-based morphometry affected by width of smoothing kernel and group size? A study using simulated atrophy

Purpose: To quantify to what extent the new registration method, DARTEL (Diffeomorphic Anatomical Registration Through Exponentiated Lie Algebra), may reduce the smoothing kernel width required and investigate the minimum group size necessary for voxel-based morphometry (VBM) studies. Materials and Methods: A simulated atrophy approach was employed to explore the role of smoothing kernel, group size, and their interactions on VBM detection accuracy. Group sizes of 10, 15, 25, and 50 were compared for kernels between 0–12 mm. Results: A smoothing kernel of 6 mm achieved the highest atrophy detection accuracy for groups with 50 participants and 8–10 mm for the groups of 25 at P < 0.05 with familywise correction. The results further demonstrated that a group size of 25 was the lower limit when two different groups of participants were compared, whereas a group size of 15 was the minimum for longitudinal comparisons but at P < 0.05 with false discovery rate correction. Conclusion: Our data confirmed DARTEL-based VBM generally benefits from smaller kernels and different kernels perform best for different group sizes with a tendency of smaller kernels for larger groups. Importantly, the kernel selection was also affected by the threshold applied. This highlighted that the choice of kernel in relation to group size should be considered with care.

Probabilistic physically-based cloud screening of satellite infra-red imagery for operational sea surface temperature retrieval

We propose and demonstrate a fully probabilistic (Bayesian) approach to the detection of cloudy pixels in thermal infrared (TIR) imagery observed from satellite over oceans. Using this approach, we show how to exploit the prior information and the fast forward modelling capability that are typically available in the operational context to obtain improved cloud detection. The probability of clear sky for each pixel is estimated by applying Bayes' theorem, and we describe how to apply Bayes' theorem to this problem in general terms. Joint probability density functions (PDFs) of the observations in the TIR channels are needed; the PDFs for clear conditions are calculable from forward modelling and those for cloudy conditions have been obtained empirically. Using analysis fields from numerical weather prediction as prior information, we apply the approach to imagery representative of imagers on polar-orbiting platforms. In comparison with the established cloud-screening scheme, the new technique decreases both the rate of failure to detect cloud contamination and the false-alarm rate by one quarter. The rate of occurrence of cloud-screening-related errors of >1 K in area-averaged SSTs is reduced by 83%. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Automated identification and tracking of polar-cap plasma patches at solar minimum

A method of automatically identifying and tracking polar-cap plasma patches, utilising data inversion and feature-tracking methods, is presented. A well-established and widely used 4-D ionospheric imaging algorithm, the Multi-Instrument Data Assimilation System (MIDAS), inverts slant total electron content (TEC) data from ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers to produce images of the free electron distribution in the polar-cap ionosphere. These are integrated to form vertical TEC maps. A flexible feature-tracking algorithm, TRACK, previously used extensively in meteorological storm-tracking studies is used to identify and track maxima in the resulting 2-D data fields. Various criteria are used to discriminate between genuine patches and "false-positive" maxima such as the continuously moving day-side maximum, which results from the Earth's rotation rather than plasma motion. Results for a 12-month period at solar minimum, when extensive validation data are available, are presented. The method identifies 71 separate structures consistent with patch motion during this time. The limitations of solar minimum and the consequent small number of patches make climatological inferences difficult, but the feasibility of the method for patches larger than approximately 500 km in scale is demonstrated and a larger study incorporating other parts of the solar cycle is warranted. Possible further optimisation of discrimination criteria, particularly regarding the definition of a patch in terms of its plasma concentration enhancement over the surrounding background, may improve results.

An enhanced fall detection system for elderly person monitoring using consumer home networks

Various fall-detection solutions have been previously proposed to create a reliable surveillance system for elderly people with high requirements on accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. In this paper, an enhanced fall detection system is proposed for elderly person monitoring that is based on smart sensors worn on the body and operating through consumer home networks. With treble thresholds, accidental falls can be detected in the home healthcare environment. By utilizing information gathered from an accelerometer, cardiotachometer and smart sensors, the impacts of falls can be logged and distinguished from normal daily activities. The proposed system has been deployed in a prototype system as detailed in this paper. From a test group of 30 healthy participants, it was found that the proposed fall detection system can achieve a high detection accuracy of 97.5%, while the sensitivity and specificity are 96.8% and 98.1% respectively. Therefore, this system can reliably be developed and deployed into a consumer product for use as an elderly person monitoring device with high accuracy and a low false positive rate.

Transreal arithmetic as a consistent basis for paraconsistent logics

Paraconsistent logics are non-classical logics which allow non-trivial and consistent reasoning about inconsistent axioms. They have been pro- posed as a formal basis for handling inconsistent data, as commonly arise in human enterprises, and as methods for fuzzy reasoning, with applica- tions in Artificial Intelligence and the control of complex systems. Formalisations of paraconsistent logics usually require heroic mathe- matical efforts to provide a consistent axiomatisation of an inconsistent system. Here we use transreal arithmetic, which is known to be consis- tent, to arithmetise a paraconsistent logic. This is theoretically simple and should lead to efficient computer implementations. We introduce the metalogical principle of monotonicity which is a very simple way of making logics paraconsistent. Our logic has dialetheaic truth values which are both False and True. It allows contradictory propositions, allows variable contradictions, but blocks literal contradictions. Thus literal reasoning, in this logic, forms an on-the- y, syntactic partition of the propositions into internally consistent sets. We show how the set of all paraconsistent, possible worlds can be represented in a transreal space. During the development of our logic we discuss how other paraconsistent logics could be arithmetised in transreal arithmetic.

Erroneous and veridical recall are not two sides of the same coin: evidence from semantic distraction in free recall

Two experiments examined the extent to which erroneous recall blocks veridical recall using, as a vehicle for study, the disruptive impact of distractors that are semantically similar to a list of words presented for free recall. Instructing participants to avoid erroneous recall of to-be-ignored spoken distractors attenuated their recall but this did not influence the disruptive effect of those distractors on veridical recall (Experiment 1). Using an externalised output-editing procedure—whereby participants recalled all items that came to mind and identified those that were erroneous—the usual between-sequence semantic similarity effect on erroneous and veridical recall was replicated but the relationship between the rate of erroneous and veridical recall was weak (Experiment 2). The results suggest that forgetting is not due to veridical recall being blocked by similar events.

Being and goodness

The old scholastic principle of the "convertibility" of being and goodness strikes nearly all moderns as either barely comprehensible or plain false. "Convertible" is a term of art meaning "interchangeable" in respect of predication, where the predicates can be exchanged salva veritate albeit not salva sensu: their referents are, as the maxim goes, really the same albeit conceptually different. The principle seems, at first blush, absurd. Did the scholastics literally mean that every being is good? Is that supposed to include a cancer, a malaria parasite, an earthquake that kills millions? If every being is good, then no being is bad—but how can that be? To the contemporary philosophical mind, such bafflement is understandable. It derives from the systematic dismantling of the great scholastic edifice that took place over half a millennium. With the loss of the basic concepts out of which that edifice was built, the space created by those concepts faded out of existence as well. The convertibility principle, like virtually all the other scholastic principles (not all, since some do survive and thrive in analytic philosophy), could not persist in a post-scholastic space wholly alien to it.

Borderline cases and the collapsing principle

John Broome has argued that value incommensurability is vagueness, by appeal to a controversial ‘collapsing principle’ about comparative indeterminacy. I offer a new counterexample to the collapsing principle. That principle allows us to derive an outright contradiction from the claim that some object is a borderline case of some predicate. But if there are no borderline cases, then the principle is empty. The collapsing principle is either false or empty.

An optimized ERP brain–computer interface based on facial expression changes

Objective. Interferences from spatially adjacent non-target stimuli are known to evoke event-related potentials (ERPs) during non-target flashes and, therefore, lead to false positives. This phenomenon was commonly seen in visual attention-based brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) using conspicuous stimuli and is known to adversely affect the performance of BCI systems. Although users try to focus on the target stimulus, they cannot help but be affected by conspicuous changes of the stimuli (such as flashes or presenting images) which were adjacent to the target stimulus. Furthermore, subjects have reported that conspicuous stimuli made them tired and annoyed. In view of this, the aim of this study was to reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue using a new stimulus presentation pattern based upon facial expression changes. Our goal was not to design a new pattern which could evoke larger ERPs than the face pattern, but to design a new pattern which could reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue, and evoke ERPs as good as those observed during the face pattern. Approach. Positive facial expressions could be changed to negative facial expressions by minor changes to the original facial image. Although the changes are minor, the contrast is big enough to evoke strong ERPs. In this paper, a facial expression change pattern between positive and negative facial expressions was used to attempt to minimize interference effects. This was compared against two different conditions, a shuffled pattern containing the same shapes and colours as the facial expression change pattern, but without the semantic content associated with a change in expression, and a face versus no face pattern. Comparisons were made in terms of classification accuracy and information transfer rate as well as user supplied subjective measures. Main results. The results showed that interferences from adjacent stimuli, annoyance and the fatigue experienced by the subjects could be reduced significantly (p < 0.05) by using the facial expression change patterns in comparison with the face pattern. The offline results show that the classification accuracy of the facial expression change pattern was significantly better than that of the shuffled pattern (p < 0.05) and the face pattern (p < 0.05). Significance. The facial expression change pattern presented in this paper reduced interference from adjacent stimuli and decreased the fatigue and annoyance experienced by BCI users significantly (p < 0.05) compared to the face pattern.

Decreasing the interference of visual-based P300 BCI using facial expression changes

Interferences from the spatially adjacent non-target stimuli evoke ERPs during non-target sub-trials and lead to false positives. This phenomenon is commonly seen in visual attention based BCIs and affects the performance of BCI system. Although, users or subjects tried to focus on the target stimulus, they still could not help being affected by conspicuous changes of the stimuli (flashes or presenting images) which were adjacent to the target stimulus. In view of this case, the aim of this study is to reduce the adjacent interference using new stimulus presentation pattern based on facial expression changes. Positive facial expressions can be changed to negative facial expressions by minor changes to the original facial image. Although the changes are minor, the contrast will be big enough to evoke strong ERPs. In this paper, two different conditions (Pattern_1, Pattern_2) were used to compare across objective measures such as classification accuracy and information transfer rate as well as subjective measures. Pattern_1 was a “flash-only” pattern and Pattern_2 was a facial expression change of a dummy face. In the facial expression change patterns, the background is a positive facial expression and the stimulus is a negative facial expression. The results showed that the interferences from adjacent stimuli could be reduced significantly (P<;0.05) by using the facial expression change patterns. The online performance of the BCI system using the facial expression change patterns was significantly better than that using the “flash-only” patterns in terms of classification accuracy (p<;0.01), bit rate (p<;0.01), and practical bit rate (p<;0.01). Subjects reported that the annoyance and fatigue could be significantly decreased (p<;0.05) using the new stimulus presentation pattern presented in this paper.