A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

Compression of polymer brushes: quantitative comparison of self-consistent field theory with experiment

The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) prediction for the compression force between two semi-dilute polymer brushes is compared to the benchmark experiments of Taunton et al. [Nature, 1988, 332, 712]. The comparison is done with previously established parameters, and without any fitting parameters whatsoever. The SCFT provides a significant quantitative improvement over the classical strong-stretching theory (SST), yielding excellent quantitative agreement with the experiment. Contrary to earlier suggestions, chain fluctuations cannot be ignored for normal experimental conditions. Although the analytical expressions of SST provide invaluable aids to understanding the qualitative behavior of polymeric brushes, the numerical SCFT is necessary in order to provide quantitatively accurate predictions.

Altered expression of cell cycle proteins and prolonged duration of cardiac myocyte hyperplasia in p27KIP1 knockout mice

The precise role of cell cycle-dependent molecules in controlling the switch from cardiac myocyte hyperplasia to hypertrophy remains to be determined. We report that loss of p27(KIP1) in the mouse results in a significant increase in heart size and in the total number of cardiac myocytes. In comparison to p27(KIP1)+/+ myocytes, the percentage of neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- myocytes in S phase was increased significantly, concomitant with a significant decrease in the percentage of G(0)/G(1) cells. The expressions of proliferating cell nuclear antigen, G(1)/S and G(2)/M phase-acting cyclins, and cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) were upregulated significantly in ventricular tissue obtained from early neonatal p27(KIP1)-/- mice, concomitant with a substantial decrease in the expressions of G(1) phase-acting cyclins and CDKs. Furthermore, mRNA expressions of the embryonic genes atrial natriuretic factor and alpha-skeletal actin were detectable at significant levels in neonatal and adult p27(KIP1)-/- mouse hearts but were undetectable in p27(KIP1)+/+ hearts. In addition, loss of p27(KIP1) was not compensated for by the upregulation of other CDK inhibitors. Thus, the loss of p27(KIP1) results in prolonged proliferation of the mouse cardiac myocyte and perturbation of myocyte hypertrophy.

Mechanistic insights into a gas–solid reaction in molecular crystals: the role of hydrogen bonding

Reactions in (molecular) organic crystalline solids have been shown to be important for exerting control that is unattainable over chemical transformations in solution. Such control has also been achieved for reactions within metal– organic cages. In these examples, the reactants are already in place within the crystals following the original crystal growth. The post-synthetic modification of metal–organic frameworks (MOFs and indeed reactions and catalysis within MOFs have been recently demonstrated; in these cases the reactants enter the crystals through permanent channels. Another growing area of interest within molecular solid-state chemistry is synthesis by mechanical co-grinding of solid reactants—often referred to as mechanochemistry. Finally, in a small number of reported examples, molecules also have been shown to enter nonporous crystals directly from the gas or vapor phase, but in only a few of these examples does a change in covalent bonding result, which indicates that a reaction occurs within the nonporous crystals. It is this latter type of highly uncommon reaction that is the focus of the present study.

Understanding construction competitiveness: the contribution of system dynamics

Purpose – Construction sector competitiveness has been a subject of interest for many years. Research too often focuses on the means of overcoming the “barriers to change” as if such barriers were static entities. There has been little attempt to understand the dynamic inter-relationship between the differing factors which impinge upon construction sector competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of taking a systems approach to construction competitiveness research. Design/methodology/approach – The system dynamics (SD) modelling methodology is described. This can provide practitioners with “microworlds” within which they can explore the dynamic effects of different policy decisions. The data underpinning the use of SD was provided by interviews and case study research which allowed an understanding of the context within which practitioners operate. Findings – The over-riding conclusion is that the SD methodology has been shown to be capable of providing a means to assess the forces which shape the sustained competitiveness of construction firms. As such, it takes the assessment of strategic policy analysis in the construction sector onto a higher plane. The need to collect data and make retrospective assessments of competitiveness and strategic performance at the statistical level is not now the only modus operandi available. Originality/value – The paper describes a novel research methodology which points towards an alternative research agenda for construction competitiveness research.

Interest in Medieval accounts: examples from England, 1272-1340

The charging of interest for borrowing money, and the level at which it is charged, is of fundamental importance to the economy. Unfortunately, the study of the interest rates charged in the middle ages has been hampered by the diversity of terms and methods used by historians. This article seeks to establish a standardized methodology to calculate interest rates from historical sources and thereby provide a firmer foundation for comparisons between regions and periods. It should also contribute towards the current historical reassessment of medieval economic and financial development. The article is illustrated with case studies drawn from the credit arrangements of the English kings between 1272 and c.1340, and argues that changes in interest rates reflect, in part, contemporary perceptions of the creditworthiness of the English crown.

Structure–activity relations (SARs) for gas-phase reactions of NO3, OH and O3 with alkenes: an update

We present updated structure-activity relations (SARs) for the prediction of rate coefficients for gas-phase reactions with alkenes of the major atmospheric oxidants NO3, OH and O-3. Such SARs provide one way of incorporating essential information about reactivity into atmospheric models. Rate coefficients obtained from correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes were used to refine the SARs. SARs have an advantage for the user over the direct application of the correlations in that knowledge of the structure of the alkene of interest is sufficient to estimate rate coefficients, and no quantum-mechanical calculations need to be performed. A comparison of the values predicted by the SARs with experimental data where they exist allowed us to assess the reliability of our method.