Mission report: a strategy to inventory, characterize, and monitor the marine region within and around the National Park and Monument boundaries of St. John, USVI, July 21- July 31, 2008

The intent of this field mission was to continue ongoing efforts: (1) to spatially characterize and monitor the distribution, abundance and size of both reef fishes and conch within and around the waters of the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and newly established Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR), (2) to correlate this information to in-situ data collected on associated habitat parameters, (3) to use this information to establish the knowledge base necessary for enacting management decisions in a spatial setting and to establish the efficacy of those management decisions. This work is supported by the National Park Service and NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program’s Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Project. The report highlights the successes of this mission.

An approach to estimating rockfish biomass based on larval production, with application to Sebastes jordani

An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.

The measurement error in marine survey catches: the bottom trawl case

We have formulated a model for analyzing the measurement error in marine survey abundance estimates by using data from parallel surveys (trawl haul or acoustic measurement). The measurement error is defined as the component of the variability that cannot be explained by covariates such as temperature, depth, bottom type, etc. The method presented is general, but we concentrate on bottom trawl catches of cod (Gadus morhua). Catches of cod from 10 parallel trawling experiments in the Barents Sea with a total of 130 paired hauls were used to estimate the measurement error in trawl hauls. Based on the experimental data, the measurement error is fairly constant in size on the logarithmic scale and is independent of location, time, and fish density. Compared with the total variability of the winter and autumn surveys in the Barents Sea, the measurement error is small (approximately 2–5%, on the log scale, in terms of variance of catch per towed distance). Thus, the cod catch rate is a fairly precise measure of fish density at a given site at a given time.

Near and distant connection of atmospheric systems to ocean temperature change in the coastal California Current region

In studying hydrosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere interactions, it is useful to focus on specific subsystem processes and energy exchanges (forcing). Since subsystem scales range over ten orders of magnitude, it may be difficult to focus research on scales that will yield useful results in terms of establishing causal and predictive connections between more easily and less easily observed subsystems. In an effort to find pertinent scales, we have begun empirical investigations into relationships between atmospheric, oceanic, and biological systems having spatial scales exceeding 10^3 kilometers and temporal scales of six months or more.

Neogene through Pleistocene paleoclimate of the Great Salt Lake region, northeastern Great Basin, USA

In a cooperative agreement between Amoco Production Company and the University of Arizona Geosciences Department, extensive data and resources associated with 15 deep wells drilled in the Great Salt Lake are currently on loan at the University of Arizona. Seismic data, electric and lithologic logs, cuttings and previously-prepared pollen slides will eventually permit a thorough study of both the tectonic and climatic history of the Great Salt Lake region. The preliminary study presented here concentrates on the Late Tertiary and Pleistocene climatic reconstruction of the eastern Great Basin through examination of fossil pollen.

新疆阜康地区森林资源与环境的空间分析

研究了新疆阜康地区森林植被资源与环境的特征和其30年来的变化，利用Arcinfo强大的空间分析功能，对资源、DEM模型、景观指数、环境价值和新疆降水量的地统计学规律进行较全面的分析。本文分为五个部分： 1、新疆阜康地区森林资源与环境空间数据库的建立森林资源与环境空间数据库的建立是它们空问分析的基础。利用多期的遥感图象和该区的地形图，建立森林分类图形和属性库（包括森林和环境自变量集）一体化的GIS空间数据库。为了提高TM遥感图象的分类精度，利用ERDAS图象处理软件，对它进行包括主成分、降噪、去条带和自然色彩变换等增强处理，采用监督分类和人工判读相结合的方法进行分类，采用R2V、ERDAS、Arcview、Arcinfo等软件的集成，使得小班面层与某些线层的无缝联接。成功地形成一套适于西部GIS的森林资源与环境空间数据库的技术路径。此外，对新疆阜康北部地区森林资源动态进行初步分析。 2、新疆阜康地区数字高程模型(DEM)及其粗差检测分析为了提高生态建模的精度，模拟和提取该区的地面特征至关重要。在已建立的森林资源与环境空间数据库的支持下，利用Arcinfo和ERDAS，建立了新疆阜康地区的1：5万数字高程模型(DEM)。通过提取地形的海拔、坡度、坡向特征因子，分析森林植被的垂直分布。通过对DEM的粗差检测分析，分析阜康地区的数字高程模型精度。 3、新疆阜康地区景观格局变化分析在1977年、1987年、1999年森林资源与环境空间数据库的支持下，利用景观分析软件编制三个时段的新疆阜康地区植被景观类型图，并分析了近30年来新疆阜康地区景观动态与景观格局变化。结果表明：①在此期间整个研究区的斑块数减少，斑块平均面积扩大，景观中面积在不同景观要素类型之间的分配更加不均衡，景观面积向少数几种类型聚集。说明了在这期间阜康地区的景观类型有向单一化方向发展的趋势;②农耕地分布呈破碎化的趋势，斑块平均面积变小，斑块间离散程度也更高：这些变化说明人为的经济活动在阜康地区的加剧，③天然林面积减少较多，水域的面积却呈现上升的趋势，冰川及永久积雪的面积呈下降趋势， 4、新疆阜康地区森林生态效益的初步分析从广义森林生态效益定义出发，针对12种森林生态效益因变量不完全独立、且各自的自变量集不完全相同，引入具有多对多特征且整体上相容的似乎不相关广义线性模型。通过构造12种森林生态效益的“有效面积系数”和“市场逼近系数”，在森林资源与环境空间数据库的支持下，对新疆阜康地区两期的森林生态效益进行科学的计量。结果表明：新疆阜康地区的森林生态效益货币量1987年是90673.8万元，1999年是84134.4万元，总体上呈下降趋势。 5、利用新疆气象站资料研究年降雨量的空间分布规律利用ArcGIS地统计学模块，在2000年新疆气候信息空间数据库和新疆DEM模型的支持下，做出了新疆地区的年降水量空间分布图。根据新疆气候资料建立趋势而分析模型、模拟了新疆降水量空间分布的趋势值。采用3种算法（距离权重法、普通Kriging法、协同Kriging方法）计算并比较分析了研究区多年的平均降水量的时空变化。利用模拟产生的精度最优的栅格降水空间数据库，建立的多年平均降水资源信息系统，可快速计算研究区内任一地域单元中降水的总量及其空间变化，可以生成高精度的气候要素空间分布图。