Anàlisi del risc del preu dels índex IBEX-35 i DAX-30

En aquest treball es porta a terme l’anàlisi del comportament dels índexs IBEX-35 i DAX-30 en el període comprès entre els anys 2008 – 2012. L’objectiu del treball és analitzar com han evolucionat determinades mesures del risc, com són, la Volatilitat, el VaR i el CVaR en els dos índexs. Aquest anàlisi té la finalitat d’aconseguir evidències del diferent comportament d’aquests índexs en el període analitzat, i així veure el diferent impacte que ha tingut la crisis econòmica actual en l’economia espanyola i alemanya.

Nuevas técnicas de estadística espacial para la detección de clusters residenciales de población inmigrante

La estadística aplicada a la geografía ha experimentado un avance espectacular en las últimas dos décadas introduciéndose el espacio como eje fundamental del análisis. Este avance se ha visto acompañado por un rápido desarrollo de aplicaciones estadísticas integradas en los sistemas de información geográfica, constituyéndose de esta forma en un conjunto de herramientas imprescindibles en la planificación territorial. Por otro lado, en España, el incremento de población inmigrada en un corto intervalo de tiempo ha hecho necesario analizar su distribución espacial en las áreas urbanas. Los índices de autocorrelación espacial, tanto global como local, y su representación cartográfica constituyen una técnica adecuada para la detección de clusters y patrones espaciales y abre la posibilidad de plantear diferentes modelos econométricos. A partir del caso de la ciudad de Barcelona se aplican las técnicas descritas y se observan los diferentes comportamientos según el grupo de población estudiado.

Medio siglo de cambios paisajísticos en la montaña mediterránea. Percepción y valoración social del paisaje en la alta Garrotxa (Girona)

Rural depopulation and abandonment of farming activities have resulted in an intense transformation of the characteristic landscapes of Mediterranean mountains. A dynamic characterized by an intense process of expansion of forested cover in detriment to livestock and agricultural areas. This process, which produces effects such as biodiversity and cultural heritage loss and contributes to the spread of wildfires, can be mapped, quantified and described with high accuracy through the means of digital mapping, geographic information systems and landscape indexes. But what is the perception and valuation of these changes by the stakeholders involved in the management of these territories? This article attempts to answer this question in the protected area of Alta Garrotxa (Girona), where a strong correlation between landscape dynamics and their perception by the stakeholders is revealed. On the other hand, the valuation and future prospects produce diverse and often contradictory points of views that illustrate the existing difficulties to management

Development of Concepts for Pavement Management, MLR-79-04, 1979

Sufficient evidence was not discovered in this brief search to alter the general opinion that the Serviceability (Present Serviceability Index-PSI) - Performance Concepts developed by the AASHO Road Test provides the optimum engineering basis for pavement management. Use of these concepts in Iowa has the additional advantage in that we have a reasonable quantity of historical data over a period of time on the change in pavement condition as measured by PSI's. Some additional benefits would be the ability to better assess our needs with respect to those being recommended to Congress by AASHTO Committees. These concepts have been the basis used for developing policies on dimensions and weight of vehicles and highway needs which the AASHTO Transport Committees have recommended to the United States House Committee on Ways and Means. The first recommendation based on these concepts was made in the mid 1960's. Iowa's participation in the evaluation for this recommendation was under the direction of our present Director of Transportation, Mr. Raymond Kassel. PSI Indexes had to be derived from subjective surface ratings at that time. The most recent recommendation to Congress was made in November of 1977. Based on the rationale expressed above, a pilot study of the major part of the rural interstate system was conducted. The Objective of the study was to measure pavement performance through the use of the Present Serviceability Index (PSI) - Pavement Performance concepts as developed by the AASHO Road Test and to explore the usefulness of this type of data as a pavement management tool. Projects in the vicinity of the major urban centers were not included in this study due to the extra time that would be required to isolate accurate traffic data in these areas. Projects consisting of asphalt surface courses on crushed stone base sections were not included.

Formica paralugubris (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) in the Italian Alps from new data and old data revisited.

We provide evidence that Formica paralugubris Seifert, 1996, a species of wood and recently described from Switzerland, is present in the Italian Alps. Until 1996, this species was confounded with F.lugubris Zetterstedt, 1838. We examine the wood and collection deposited at the University of Pavia (Italy) and collect new samples within the Italian Alps. Formica paralugubris seems to be more abundant than F.lugubris. Moreover, both species are found in sympatry in some localities

Concept of fat balance in human obesity revisited with particular reference to de novo lipogenesis.

The measurement of fat balance (fat input minus fat output) involves the accurate estimation of both metabolizable fat intake and total fat oxidation. This is possible mostly under laboratory conditions and not yet in free-living conditions. In the latter situation, net fat retention/mobilization can be estimated based on precise and accurate sequential body composition measurements. In case of positive balance, lipids stored in adipose tissue can originate from dietary (exogenous) lipids or from nonlipid precursors, mainly from carbohydrates (CHOs) but also from ethanol, through a process known as de novo lipogenesis (DNL). Basic equations are provided in this review to facilitate the interpretation of the different subcomponents of fat balance (endogenous vs exogenous) under different nutritional circumstances. One difficulty is methodological: total DNL is difficult to measure quantitatively in man; for example, indirect calorimetry only tracks net DNL, not total DNL. Although the numerous factors (mostly exogenous) influencing DNL have been studied, in particular the effect of CHO overfeeding, there is little information on the rate of DNL in habitual conditions of life, that is, large day-to-day fluctuations of CHO intakes, different types of CHO ingested with different glycemic indexes, alcohol combined with excess CHO intakes, etc. Three issues, which are still controversial today, will be addressed: (1) Is the increase of fat mass induced by CHO overfeeding explained by DNL only, or by decreased endogenous fat oxidation, or both? (2) Is DNL different in overweight and obese individuals as compared to their lean counterparts? (3) Does DNL occur both in the liver and in adipose tissue? Recent studies have demonstrated that acute CHO overfeeding influences adipose tissue lipogenic gene expression and that CHO may stimulate DNL in skeletal muscles, at least in vitro. The role of DNL and its importance in health and disease remain to be further clarified, in particular the putative effect of DNL on the control of energy intake and energy expenditure, as well as the occurrence of DNL in other tissues (such as in myocytes) in addition to hepatocytes and adipocytes.

Establishment of an in vitro photoassay using THP-1 cells and IL-8 to discriminate photoirritants from photoallergens

At present, there are no in vivo or in vitro methods developed which has been adopted by regulatory authorities to assess photosensitization induced by chemicals. Recently, we have proposed the use of THP-1 cells and IL-8 release to identify the potential of chemicals to induce skin sensitization. Based on the assumption that sensitization and photosensitization share common mechanisms, the aim of this work was to explore the THP-1 model as an in vitro model to identify photoallergenic chemicals. THP-1 cells were exposed to 7 photoallergens and 3 photoirritants and irradiated with UVA light or kept in dark. Non phototoxic allergens or irritants were also included as negative compounds. Following 24 h of incubation, cytotoxicity and IL-8 release were measured. At subtoxic concentrations, photoallergens produced a dose-related increase in IL-8 release after irradiation. Some photoirritants also produced a slight increase in IL-8 release. However, when the overall stimulation indexes of IL-8 were calculated for each chemical, 6 out of 7 photoallergens tested reached a stimulation index above 2, while the entire set of negative compounds had stimulation indexes below 2. Our data suggest that this assay may become a useful cell-based in vitro test for evaluating the photosensitizing potential of chemicals.

Temporal changes of an alfalfa succession and related soil physical properties on the Loess Plateau, China

The objective of this work was to investigate the relationship between changes in the plant community and changes in soil physical properties and water availability, during a succession from alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to natural vegetation on the Loess Plateau, China. Data from a succession sere spanning 32 years were collated, and vegetative indexes were compared to changes related to soil bulk density and soil water storage. The alfalfa yield increased for approximately 7 years, then it declined and the alfalfa was replaced by a natural community dominated by Stipa bungeana that began to thrive about 10 years after alfalfa seeding. Soil bulk density increased over time, but the deterioration of the alfalfa was mainly ascribed to a severe reduction in soil water storage, which was lowest around the time when degradation commenced. The results indicated that water consumption by alfalfa could be reduced by reducing plant density. The analysis of the data also suggested that soil water recharge could be facilitated by rotating the alfalfa with other crops, natural vegetation, or bare soil.

Faunistic analysis of Carabidae and Staphylinidae (Coleoptera) in five agroecosystems in northeastern São Paulo state, Brazil

The objective of this study was to determined species composition and community structure of Carabidae and Staphylinidae in five areas of forest fragment and soybean/corn crops or orange orchard, from December 2004 to May 2007. Beetles were captured in pitfall traps distributed along two parallel transects of 200 m in length, placed across crop land/forest boundary fragment, with 100 m each. The Shannon-Wiener diversity and evenness indexes and Morisita similarity index were calculated. The carabids Abaris basistriatus Chaudoir, Calosoma granulatum Perty, Megacephala brasiliensis Kirby, Odontochila nodicornis (Dejean) and Selenophorus seriatoporus Putzeys. are dominant and are widely distributed in northeastern São Paulo state, Brazil. Point-scale species diversity was greatest at the transition between forest fragment and cultivated area. The carabid and staphylinid communities of the forest fragment were more similar to the community of orange orchard than that of soybean/corn crops.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Predicting the occurrence of alate aphids in Brassicaceae

The objective of this work was to predict the occurrence of alates of Brevicoryne brassicae, Lipaphis erysimi, and Myzus persicae (Hemiptera, Aphididae) in Brassicaceae. The alate aphids were collected in yellow water traps from July 1997 to August 2005. Aphid population peaks were predicted using a degree‑day model. The meteorological factors, temperature, air relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine hours, were used to provide precision indexes to evaluate the best predictor for the date of the first capture of alate aphids by the traps. The degree‑day model indicated that the peak population of the evaluated aphid species can be predicted using one of the following biofix dates: January 1st, June 1st, and the date of the first capture of the alate aphid species by the yellow water traps. The best predictor of B. brassicae occurrence is the number of days with minimum temperature >15°C, and of L. erysimi and M. persicae, the number of days with rainfall occurrence.

Use of social networks for academic purposes: a case study

Purpose This paper aims to analyse various aspects of an academic social network: the profile of users, the reasons for its use, its perceived benefits and the use of other social media for scholarly purposes. Design/methodology/approach The authors examined the profiles of the users of an academic social network. The users were affiliated with 12 universities. The following were recorded for each user: sex, the number of documents uploaded, the number of followers, and the number of people being followed. In addition, a survey was sent to the individuals who had an email address in their profile. Findings Half of the users of the social network were academics and a third were PhD students. Social sciences scholars accounted for nearly half of all users. Academics used the service to get in touch with other scholars, disseminate research results and follow other scholars. Other widely employed social media included citation indexes, document creation, edition and sharing tools and communication tools. Users complained about the lack of support for the utilisation of these tools. Research limitations/implications The results are based on a single case study. Originality/value This study provides new insights on the impact of social media in academic contexts by analysing the user profiles and benefits of a social network service that is specifically targeted at the academic community.

Potasssium chloride as a nutrient seed primer to enhance salt‑tolerance in maize

The objective of this work was to determine if KCl could be a useful nutrient primer for safe seed germination in maize crop under salt stress conditions. Seed priming was done using 50 mmol L‑1 of muriate of potash, and germination and seedling growth were evaluated after salt stress with NaCl up to 50 mmol L‑1. Another set of seeds was tested under the same salt stress conditions without priming. Under salinity stress, germination percentage, germination rate index, germination coefficient, and seedling vigor indexes were higher in primed seeds. In unprimed seeds, mean germination time increased, while the germination rate index and the fresh and dry matter mass decreased more sharply with salinity stress. The Na/K ratio was higher in unprimed seeds.

Informe d'Autors UOC a ISI Web of Knowledge. Gener 2007

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