Early, low-level auditory-somatosensory multisensory interactions impact reaction time speed.

Several lines of research have documented early-latency non-linear response interactions between audition and touch in humans and non-human primates. That these effects have been obtained under anesthesia, passive stimulation, as well as speeded reaction time tasks would suggest that some multisensory effects are not directly influencing behavioral outcome. We investigated whether the initial non-linear neural response interactions have a direct bearing on the speed of reaction times. Electrical neuroimaging analyses were applied to event-related potentials in response to auditory, somatosensory, or simultaneous auditory-somatosensory multisensory stimulation that were in turn averaged according to trials leading to fast and slow reaction times (using a median split of individual subject data for each experimental condition). Responses to multisensory stimulus pairs were contrasted with each unisensory response as well as summed responses from the constituent unisensory conditions. Behavioral analyses indicated that neural response interactions were only implicated in the case of trials producing fast reaction times, as evidenced by facilitation in excess of probability summation. In agreement, supra-additive non-linear neural response interactions between multisensory and the sum of the constituent unisensory stimuli were evident over the 40-84 ms post-stimulus period only when reaction times were fast, whereas subsequent effects (86-128 ms) were observed independently of reaction time speed. Distributed source estimations further revealed that these earlier effects followed from supra-additive modulation of activity within posterior superior temporal cortices. These results indicate the behavioral relevance of early multisensory phenomena.

Early high-dose treatment: SCT results from the European High Risk Neuroblastoma Study

Aims: The HR-NBL1 Study of the European SIOP Neuroblastoma Group (SIOPEN) randomised two high dose regimens to learn about potential superiority and toxicity profiles.Patients and Methods: At interim analysis 1483 high risk neuroblastoma patients (893 males) were included since 2002 with either INSS stage 4 disease (1383 pts) above 1 year, or as infants (59 pts) and stage 2&3 of any age (145 pts) with MYCN amplification. The median age at diagnosis was 2.9 years (1 month-19.9 years) with a median follow up of 3 years. Response eligibility criteria prior randomisation after Rapid Cojec Induction (J Clin Oncol, 2010) ± 2 courses of TVD (Cancer, 2003) included complete bone marrow remission and at least partial response at skeletal sites with no more than 3, but improved mIBG positive spots and a PBSC harvest of at least 3x10E6 CD34/kgBW. The randomised regimens were BuMel [busulfan oral till 2006, 4x150mg/m² in 4 ED; or intravenous use according to body weight as licenced thereafter; melphalan 140mg/m²/day) and CEM [carboplatinum ctn. infusion (4x AUC 4.1mg/ml.min/day, etoposid ctn. infusion (4x 338mg/m²/day or [4x 200mg/m²/day]*, melphalan (3x70mg/m²/day; 3x60mg/m²/day*;*reduced dosis if GFR< 100ml/min/1.73m²). Supportive care followed institutional guidelines. VOD prophylaxis included ursadiol, but randomised patients were not eligible for the prophylactic defibrotide trial. Local control included surgery and radiotherapy of 21Gy.Results: Of 1483 patients, 584 were being randomised for the high dose question at data lock. A significant difference in event free survival (3-year EFS 49% vs. 33%, p<0.001) and overall survival (3-year OS 61% vs. 48%, p=0.003) favouring the BuMel regimen over the CEM regimen was demonstrated. The relapse/progression rate was significantly higher after CEM (0.60±0.03) than after BuMel (0.48±0.03)(p<0.001). Toxicity data had reached 80% completeness at last analysis. The severe toxicity rate up to day 100 (ICU and toxic deaths) was below 10%, but was significantly higher for CEM (p= 0.014). The acute toxic death rate was 3% for BuMel and 5% for CEM (NS). The acute HDT toxicity profile favours the BuMel regimen in spite of a total VOD incidence of 18% (grade 3:5%).Conclusions: The Peto rule of P<0.001 at interim analysis on the primary endpoint, EFS was met. Hence randomization was stopped with BuMel as recommended standard treatment in the HR-NBl1/SIOPEN trial which is still accruing for the randomised immunotherapy question.

Calreticulin levels determine onset of early muscle denervation by fast motoneurons of ALS model mice.

Although the precise signaling mechanisms underlying the vulnerability of some sub-populations of motoneurons in ALS remain unclear, critical factors such as metallo-proteinase 9 expression, neuronal activity and endoplasmic reticulum stress have been shown to be involved. In the context of SOD1(G93A) ALS mouse model, we previously showed that a two-fold decrease in calreticulin (CRT) is occurring in the vulnerable fast motoneurons. Here, we asked to which extent the decrease in CRT levels was causative to muscle denervation and/or motoneuron degeneration. Toward this goal, a hemizygous deletion of the crt gene in SOD1(G93A) mice was generated since the complete ablation of crt is embryonic lethal. We observed that SOD1(G93A);crt(+/-) mice display increased and earlier muscle weakness and muscle denervation compared to SOD1(G93A) mice. While CRT reduction in motoneurons leads to a strong upregulation of two factors important in motoneuron dysfunction, ER stress and mTOR activation, it does not aggravate motoneuron death. Our results underline a prevalent role for CRT levels in the early phase of muscle denervation and support CRT regulation as a potential therapeutic approach.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.

Multimodal MRI analysis of structural and functional networks in the human brain : application to two clinical studies : driving abilities under THC intoxication and early white matter changes in FXTAS

Les approches multimodales dans l'imagerie cérébrale non invasive sont de plus en plus considérées comme un outil indispensable pour la compréhension des différents aspects de la structure et de la fonction cérébrale. Grâce aux progrès des techniques d'acquisition des images de Resonance Magnetique et aux nouveaux outils pour le traitement des données, il est désormais possible de mesurer plusieurs paramètres sensibles aux différentes caractéristiques des tissues cérébraux. Ces progrès permettent, par exemple, d'étudier les substrats anatomiques qui sont à la base des processus cognitifs ou de discerner au niveau purement structurel les phénomènes dégénératifs et développementaux. Cette thèse met en évidence l'importance de l'utilisation d'une approche multimodale pour étudier les différents aspects de la dynamique cérébrale grâce à l'application de cette approche à deux études cliniques: l'évaluation structurelle et fonctionnelle des effets aigus du cannabis fumé chez des consommateurs réguliers et occasionnels, et l'évaluation de l'intégrité de la substance grise et blanche chez des jeunes porteurs de la prémutations du gène FMR1 à risque de développer le FXTAS (Fragile-X Tremor Ataxia Syndrome). Nous avons montré que chez les fumeurs occasionnels de cannabis, même à faible concentration du principal composant psychoactif (THC) dans le sang, la performance lors d'une tâche visuo-motrice est fortement diminuée, et qu'il y a des changements dans l'activité des trois réseaux cérébraux impliqués dans les processus cognitifs: le réseau de saillance, le réseau du contrôle exécutif, et le réseau actif par défaut (Default Mode). Les sujets ne sont pas en mesure de saisir les saillances dans l'environnement et de focaliser leur attention sur la tâche. L'augmentation de la réponse hémodynamique dans le cortex cingulaire antérieur suggère une augmentation de l'activité introspective. Une investigation des ef¬fets au niveau cérébral d'une exposition prolongée au cannabis, montre des changements persistants de la substance grise dans les régions associées à la mémoire et au traitement des émotions. Le niveau d'atrophie dans ces structures corrèle avec la consommation de cannabis au cours des trois mois précédant l'étude. Dans la deuxième étude, nous démontrons des altérations structurelles des décennies avant l'apparition du syndrome FXTAS chez des sujets jeunes, asymptomatiques, et porteurs de la prémutation du gène FMR1. Les modifications trouvées peuvent être liées à deux mécanismes différents. Les altérations dans le réseau moteur du cervelet et dans la fimbria de l'hippocampe, suggèrent un effet développemental de la prémutation. Elles incluent aussi une atrophie de la substance grise du lobule VI du cervelet et l'altération des propriétés tissulaires de la substance blanche des projections afférentes correspondantes aux pédoncules cérébelleux moyens. Les lésions diffuses de la substance blanche cérébrale peu¬vent être un marquer précoce du développement de la maladie, car elles sont liées à un phénomène dégénératif qui précède l'apparition des symptômes du FXTAS. - Multimodal brain imaging is becoming a leading tool for understanding different aspects of brain structure and function. Thanks to the advances in Magnetic Resonance imaging (MRI) acquisition schemes and data processing techniques, it is now possible to measure different parameters sensitive to different tissue characteristics. This allows for example to investigate anatomical substrates underlying cognitive processing, or to disentangle, at a pure structural level degeneration and developmental processes. This thesis highlights the importance of using a multimodal approach for investigating different aspects of brain dynamics by applying this approach to two clinical studies: functional and structural assessment of the acute effects of cannabis smoking in regular and occasional users, and grey and white matter assessment in young FMR1 premutation carriers at risk of developing FXTAS. We demonstrate that in occasional smokers cannabis smoking, even at low concentration of the main psychoactive component (THC) in the blood, strongly decrease subjects' performance on a visuo-motor tracking task, and globally alters the activity of the three brain networks involved in cognitive processing: the Salience, the Control Executive, and the Default Mode networks. Subjects are unable to capture saliences in the environment and to orient attention to the task; the increase in Hemodynamic Response in the Anterior Cingulate Cortex suggests an increase in self-oriented mental activity. A further investigation on long term exposure to cannabis, shows a persistent grey matter modification in brain regions associated with memory and affective processing. The degree of atrophy in these structures also correlates with the estimation of drug use in the three months prior the participation to the study. In the second study we demonstrate structural changes in young asymptomatic premutation carriers decades before the onset of FXTAS that might be related to two different mechanisms. Alteration of the cerebellar motor network and of the hippocampal fimbria/ fornix, may reflect a potential neurodevelopmental effect of the premutation. These include grey matter atrophy in lobule VI and modification of white matter tissue property in the corresponding afferent projections through the Middle Cerebellar Peduncles. Diffuse hemispheric white matter lesions that seem to appear closer to the onset of FXTAS and be related to a neurodegenerative phenomenon may mark the imminent onset of FXTAS.

Epigenetic alterations and constitutive Wnt signaling are early events in the progression from Barrett's esophagus to esophageal adenocarcinoma

SUMMARY Barrett's esophagus (BE) is an acquired condition in which the normal squamous epithelium in the distal esophagus is replaced by a metaplastic columnar epithelium, as a complication of chronic gastroesophageal reflux. The clinical significance of this disease is its associated predisposition to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). EAC is a highly lethal disease. Better understanding of the pathogenesis of columnar metaplasia and its progression to cancer might allow the identification of biomarkers that can be used for early diagnosis, which will improve the patient survival. In this study, an improved protocol for methylation-sensitive single-strand conformation analysis, which is used to analyze promoter methylation, is proposed and a methylation-sensitive dot blot assay is described, which allows a rapid, easy, and sensitive detection of promoter methylation. Both methods were applied to study the methylation pattern of the APC promoter in histologically normal appearing gastric mucosa. The APC promoter showed monoallelic methylation, and because the methylated allele differed between the different gastric cell types, this corresponded to allelic exclusion. The APC methylation pattern was frequently altered in noimal gastric mucosa associated with neoplastic lesions, indicating that changes in the pattern of promoter methylation might precede the development of neoplasia, without accompanying histological manifestations. An epigenetic profile of 10 genes important in EAC was obtained in this study; 5 promoter genes (APC, TIMP3, TERT, CDKN2A and SFRP1) were found to be hypermethylated in the tumors. Furthermore, the promoter of APC, TIMP3 and TERT was frequently methylated in BE samples from EAC patients, but rarely in BE samples that did not progress to EAC. These three biomarkers might therefore be considered as potential predictive markers for increased EAC risk. Analysis of Wnt pathway alterations indicated that WNT2 ligand is overexpressed as early as the low-grade dysplastic stage and downregulation by promoter methylation of the SFRP1 gene occurrs already in the metaplastic lesions. Moreover, loss of APC expression is not the only factor involved in the activation of the Wnt pathway. These results indicate that a variety of biologic, mostly epigenetic events occurs very early in the carcinogenesis of BE. This new information might lead to improved early diagnosis of EAC and thus open the way to a possible application of these biomarkers in the prediction of increased EAC risk progression. RESUME L'oesophage de Barrett est une lésion métaplasique définie par le remplacement de la muqueuse malpighienne du bas oesophage par une muqueuse cylindrique glandulaire, suite à une agression chronique par du reflux gastro-esophagien. La plus importante signification clinique de cette maladie est sa prédisposition au développement d'un adénocarcinome. Le pronostic de l'adénocarcinome sur oesophage de Barrett est sombre. Seule une meilleure compréhension de la pathogenèse de l'épithélium métaplasique et de sa progression néoplasique permettrait l'identification de biomarqueurs pouvant être utilisés pour un diagnostic précoce ; la survie du patient serait ainsi augmentée. Dans cette étude, un protocole amélioré pour l'analyse de la méthylation par conformation simple brin est proposé. De plus, une technique d'analyse par dot blot permettant une détection rapide, facile et sensible de la méthylation d'un promoteur est décrite. Les deux méthodes ont été appliquées à l'étude de la méthylation du promoteur du gène APC dans des muqueuses gastriques histologiquement normales. Le promoteur APC a montré une méthylation monoallélique et, parce que les allèles méthylés différaient entre les différents types de cellules gastriques, celle-ci correspondait à une méthylation allélique exclusive. La méthylation d'APC a été trouvée fréquemment altérée dans la muqueuse gastrique normale associée à des lésions néoplasiques. Ceci indique que des changements dans la méthylation d'un promoteur peuvent précéder le développement d'une tumeur, et cela sans modification histologique. Un profil épigénétique des adénocarcinomes sur oesophage de Barrett a été obtenu dans cette étude. Cinq promoteurs (APC, TIMP3, TERT, CDKN2A et SFRP1) ont été trouvés hyperméthylés dans les tumeurs. Les promoteurs d'APC, TIMP3 et TERT étaient fréquemment méthylés dans l'épithélium métaplasique proche d'un adénocarcinome et rarement dans l'épithélium sans évolution néoplasique. Ces trois biomarkers pourraient par conséquent être considérés comme marqueur prédicatif d'un risque accru de développer une tumeur. L'analyse des altérations de la voie Wnt a montré que WNT2 est surexprimé déjà dans des dysplasies de bas-grade et que la dérégulation de SFRP1 par méthylation de son promoteur intervenait dans les lésions métaplasiques. Une perte d'expression d'APC n'est pas le seul facteur impliqué dans l'activation de cette voie. Ces résultats montrent qu'une grande diversité d'événements biologiques, principalement épigénétiques, surviennent très tôt lors de la carcinogenèse de l'oesophage de Barrett. Ces nouveaux éléments pourraient améliorer le diagnostic précoce et rendre possible l'application de ces biomarqueurs dans la prédiction d'un risque accru de développer un adénocarcinome sur un oesophage de Barrett.

Working memory load improves early stages of independent visual processing.

Increasing evidence suggests that working memory and perceptual processes are dynamically interrelated due to modulating activity in overlapping brain networks. However, the direct influence of working memory on the spatio-temporal brain dynamics of behaviorally relevant intervening information remains unclear. To investigate this issue, subjects performed a visual proximity grid perception task under three different visual-spatial working memory (VSWM) load conditions. VSWM load was manipulated by asking subjects to memorize the spatial locations of 6 or 3 disks. The grid was always presented between the encoding and recognition of the disk pattern. As a baseline condition, grid stimuli were presented without a VSWM context. VSWM load altered both perceptual performance and neural networks active during intervening grid encoding. Participants performed faster and more accurately on a challenging perceptual task under high VSWM load as compared to the low load and the baseline condition. Visual evoked potential (VEP) analyses identified changes in the configuration of the underlying sources in one particular period occurring 160-190 ms post-stimulus onset. Source analyses further showed an occipito-parietal down-regulation concurrent to the increased involvement of temporal and frontal resources in the high VSWM context. Together, these data suggest that cognitive control mechanisms supporting working memory may selectively enhance concurrent visual processing related to an independent goal. More broadly, our findings are in line with theoretical models implicating the engagement of frontal regions in synchronizing and optimizing mnemonic and perceptual resources towards multiple goals.

Russian transition in the early 21st century

Tässä tutkimuksessa käsitellään Venäjän talouden kehitystä uudella vuosituhannella. Kylmän sodan aikaan Neuvostoliitto oli suurvalta, jonka asema perustui sotilasmahtiin. Sotateollisuuden konversio palvelemaan nykytarpeita ei ole ollut helppo tehtävä. Vuoden 1998 talouskriisin jälkeen elintaso on toipunut verraten nopeasti, mikä on nähtävissä tarkastellessa kotitalouksien kulutusrakenteita, joita käsitellään tarkemmin luvussa 2. Siirtymätalouksissa vaihtotaseen vajeet ovat yleisiä, mutta luonnonrikkauksiensa ansiosta Venäjän vaihtotaseet ovat olleet huomattavan ylijäämäisiä, mitä pohditaan luvussa 3. Vaihtotaseen ylijäämien heijatusvaikutus on ollut Venäjän rooli pääomien nettoviejänä. Venäjän investointikertymä onedelleen erittäin vaatimaton suhteutettuna maan kehitysvaiheeseen. Jokaisessa menestyksekkäässä taloudessa investoinnit ovat pitkän aikavälintaloudellisen menestyksen avaintekijä. Venäjän erityispiirteitä tähän liittyen on kuvattu luvussa 4. Raportti päättyy talouden nykytilanteen analyysiin (luvut 5 ja 6).

Supporting knowledge creation and sharing in the early phases of the strategic innovation process

The driving forces of technology and globalization continuously transform the business landscape in a way which undermines the existing strategies and innovations of organizations. The challenge for organizations is to establish such conditions where they are able to create new knowledge for innovative business ideas in interaction between other organizations and individuals. Innovation processes continuously need new external stimulations and seek new ideas, new information and knowledge locating more and more outside traditional organizational boundaries. In several studies, the early phases of the innovation process have been considered as the most critical ones. During these phases, the innovation process can emerge or conclude. External knowledge acquirement and utilization are noticed to be important at this stage of the innovation process giving information about the development of future markets and needs for new innovative businessideas. To make it possible, new methods and approaches to manage proactive knowledge creation and sharing activities are needed. In this study, knowledge creation and sharing in the early phases of the innovation process has been studied, and the understanding of knowledge management in the innovation process in an open and collaborative context advanced. Furthermore, the innovation management methods in this study are combined in a novel way to establish an open innovation process and tested in real-life cases. For these purposes two complementary and sequentially applied group work methods - the heuristic scenario method and the idea generation process - are examined by focusing the research on the support of the open knowledge creation and sharing process. The research objective of this thesis concerns two doctrines: the innovation management including the knowledge management, and the futures research concerning the scenario paradigm. This thesis also applies the group decision support system (GDSS) in the idea generation process to utilize the converged knowledge during the scenario process.

Welding time models for cost calculations in the early stages of the design process

It is generally accepted that between 70 and 80% of manufacturing costs can be attributed to design. Nevertheless, it is difficult for the designer to estimate manufacturing costs accurately, especially when alternative constructions are compared at the conceptual design phase, because of the lack of cost information and appropriate tools. In general, previous reports concerning optimisation of a welded structure have used the mass of the product as the basis for the cost comparison. However, it can easily be shown using a simple example that the use of product mass as the sole manufacturing cost estimator is unsatisfactory. This study describes a method of formulating welding time models for cost calculation, and presents the results of the models for particular sections, based on typical costs in Finland. This was achieved by collecting information concerning welded products from different companies. The data included 71 different welded assemblies taken from the mechanical engineering and construction industries. The welded assemblies contained in total 1 589 welded parts, 4 257 separate welds, and a total welded length of 3 188 metres. The data were modelled for statistical calculations, and models of welding time were derived by using linear regression analysis. Themodels were tested by using appropriate statistical methods, and were found to be accurate. General welding time models have been developed, valid for welding in Finland, as well as specific, more accurate models for particular companies. The models are presented in such a form that they can be used easily by a designer, enabling the cost calculation to be automated.

Peduncle and fruit yield, in six cropping seasons, of early dwarf cashew tree clones irrigated with different water regimes

The objective of this work was to evaluate peduncle and fruit yield in clone MS 076 and in a clonal population of drip-irrigated, early dwarf cashew trees propagated by layering, in six cropping seasons. In order to meet the increased water requirements of the crop resulting from plant growth and development, irrigation during the dry season was performed daily according to the following water regime: 15 min/plant/day during the 1st year, 30 min/plant/day during the 2nd year, 45 min/plant/day during the 3rd year and 60 min/plant/day during all subsequent years. Water was supplied by one drip emitter/plant, at an (adjustable) flow rate of 36 L/h.The research was carried out in Fortaleza-Ceará, Brazil, and a random block design was utilized, with five replicates and split-plots. The clones were assigned to plots and the cropping seasons were considered as subplots. The clonal population was superior to the clone only with regard to number of nut shells (NNS), and solely in the first season. The clone was superior to the population as to NNS and peduncle yield (PY) in the second season, and also with regard to the three evaluated traits - NNS, PY, and nut shell yield, in the last three cropping seasons.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).