Effects of spatial resolution in the simulation of daily and subdaily precipitation in the southwestern US

We evaluate the effects of spatial resolution on the ability of a regional climate model to reproduce observed extreme precipitation for a region in the Southwestern United States. A total of 73 National Climate Data Center observational sites spread throughout Arizona and New Mexico are compared with regional climate simulations at the spatial resolutions of 50 km and 10 km for a 31 year period from 1980 to 2010. We analyze mean, 3-hourly and 24-hourly extreme precipitation events using WRF regional model simulations driven by NCEP-2 reanalysis. The mean climatological spatial structure of precipitation in the Southwest is well represented by the 10 km resolution but missing in the coarse (50 km resolution) simulation. However, the fine grid has a larger positive bias in mean summer precipitation than the coarse-resolution grid. The large overestimation in the simulation is in part due to scale-dependent deficiencies in the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme that generate excessive precipitation and induce a slow eastward propagation of the moist convective summer systems in the high-resolution simulation. Despite this overestimation in the mean, the 10 km simulation captures individual extreme summer precipitation events better than the 50 km simulation. In winter, however, the two simulations appear to perform equally in simulating extremes.

Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts

Low cost home ownership: legal issues of the shared ownership lease

Analysis of the decision in Richardson v Midland Heart Ltd (formally Focus Homes Options) [2008] L&TR 31

Upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across decadal to sub-daily timescales: a case study of Plynlimon, Wales

Streamwater nitrate dynamics in the River Hafren, Plynlimon, mid-Wales were investigated over decadal to sub-daily timescales using a range of statistical techniques. Long-term data were derived from weekly grab samples (1984–2010) and high-frequency data from 7-hourly samples (2007–2009) both measured at two sites: a headwater stream draining moorland and a downstream site below plantation forest. This study is one of the first to analyse upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across such a wide range of timescales and report on the principal mechanisms identified. The data analysis provided no clear evidence that the long-term decline in streamwater nitrate concentrations was related to a decline in atmospheric deposition alone, because nitrogen deposition first increased and then decreased during the study period. Increased streamwater temperature and denitrification may also have contributed to the decline in stream nitrate concentrations, the former through increased N uptake rates and the latter resultant from increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Strong seasonal cycles, with concentration minimums in the summer, were driven by seasonal flow minimums and seasonal biological activity enhancing nitrate uptake. Complex diurnal dynamics were observed, with seasonal changes in phase and amplitude of the cycling, and the diurnal dynamics were variable along the river. At the moorland site, a regular daily cycle, with minimum concentrations in the early afternoon, corresponding with peak air temperatures, indicated the importance of instream biological processing. At the downstream site, the diurnal dynamics were a composite signal, resultant from advection, dispersion and nitrate processing in the soils of the lower catchment. The diurnal streamwater nitrate dynamics were also affected by drought conditions. Enhanced diurnal cycling in Spring 2007 was attributed to increased nitrate availability in the post-drought period as well as low flow rates and high temperatures over this period. The combination of high-frequency short-term measurements and long-term monitoring provides a powerful tool for increasing understanding of the controls of element fluxes and concentrations in surface waters.

Testing for non-linearity in daily sterling exchange rates

A number of tests for non-linear dependence in time series are presented and implemented on a set of 10 daily sterling exchange rates covering the entire post Bretton-Woods era until the present day. Irrefutable evidence of non-linearity is shown in many of the series, but most of this dependence can apparently be explained by reference to the GARCH family of models. It is suggested that the literature in this area has reached an impasse, with the presence of ARCH effects clearly demonstrated in a large number of papers, but with the tests for non-linearity which are currently available being unable to classify any additional non-linear structure.

A measure of persistence in daily pound exchange rates

An alternative procedure to that of Lo is proposed for assessing whether there is significant evidence of persistence in time series. The technique estimates the Hurst exponent itself, and significance testing is based on an application of bootstrapping using surrogate data. The method is applied to a set of 10 daily pound exchange rates. A general lack of long-term memory is found to characterize all the series tested, in sympathy with the findings of a number of other recent papers which have used Lo's techniques.

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.

Factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people and outcome of routine management in home, hospital and nursing home settings

Objective: Fecal loading, cognitive impairment, loose stools, functional disability, comorbidity and anorectal incontinence are recognized as factors contributing to loss of fecal continence in older adults. The objective of this project was to assess the relative distribution of these factors in a variety of settings along with the outcome of usual management. Methods: One hundred and twenty adults aged 65 years and over with fecal incontinence recruited by convenience sampling from four different settings were studied. They were either living at home or in a nursing home or receiving care on an acute or rehabilitation elderly care ward. A structured questionnaire was used to elicit which factors associated with fecal incontinence were present from subjects who had given written informed consent or for whom assent for inclusion in the study had been obtained. Results: Fecal loading (Homes 6 [20%]; Acute care wards 17 [57%]; Rehabilitation wards 19 [63%]; Nursing homes 21 [70%]) and functional disability (Homes 5 [17%]; Acute care wards 25 [83%]; Rehabilitation wards 25 [83%]; Nursing homes 20 [67%]) were significantly more prevalent in the hospital and nursing home settings than in those living at home (P < 0.01). Loose stools were more prevalent in the hospital setting than in the other settings (Homes 11 [37%]; Acute care wards 20 [67%]; Rehabilitation wards 17 [57%]; Nursing homes 6 [20%]) (P < 0.01). Cognitive impairment was significantly more common in the nursing home than in the other settings (Nursing homes 26 [87%], Homes 5 [17%], Acute care wards 13 [43%], Rehabilitation wards 14 [47%]) (P < 0.01). Loose stools were the most prevalent factor present at baseline in 13 of the 19 (68%) subjects whose fecal incontinence had resolved at 3 months. Conclusion: The distribution of the factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people living at home differs from those cared for in nursing home and hospital wards settings. These differences need to be borne in mind when assessing people in different settings. Management appears to result in a cure for those who are not significantly disabled with loose stools as a cause for their fecal incontinence, but this would need to be confirmed by further research.

'Mental mobility’ in the digital age: entrepreneurs and the online home-based business

Home-based online business ventures are an increasingly pervasive yet under-researched phenomenon. The experiences and mindset of entrepreneurs setting up and running such enterprises require better understanding. Using data from a qualitative study of 23 online home-based business entrepreneurs, we propose the augmented concept of ‘mental mobility’ to encapsulate how they approach their business activities. Drawing on Howard P. Becker's early theorising of mobility, together with Victor Turner's later notion of liminality, we conceptualise mental mobility as the process through which individuals navigate the liminal spaces between the physical and digital spheres of work and the overlapping home/workplace, enabling them to manipulate and partially reconcile the spatial, temporal and emotional tensions that are present in such work environments. Our research also holds important applications for alternative employment contexts and broader social orderings because of the increasingly pervasive and disruptive influence of technology on experiences of remunerated work.

Framing evidence: policy design for the zero carbon home

In 2006 the UK government announced a move to zero carbon homes by 2016. The demand posed a major challenge to policy makers and construction professionals entailing a protracted process of policy design. The task of giving content to this target is used to explore the role of evidence in the policy process. Whereas much literature on policy and evidence treats evidence as an external input, independent of politics, this paper explores the ongoing mutual constitution of both. Drawing on theories of policy framing and the sociology of classification, the account follows the story of a policy for Zero Carbon Homes from the parameters and values used to specify the target. Particular attention is given to the role of Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs) and to the creation of a new policy venue, the Zero Carbon Hub. The analysis underlines the way in which the choices about how to model and measure the aims potentially transforms them, the importance of policy venues for transparency and the role of RIAs in the authorization of particular definitions. A more transparent, open approach to policy formulation is needed in which the framing of evidence is recognized as an integral part of the policy process.

Obstacle avoidance routing scheme through optimal sink movement for home monitoring and mobile robotic consumer devices

In recent years, ZigBee has been proven to be an excellent solution to create scalable and flexible home automation networks. In a home automation network, consumer devices typically collect data from a home monitoring environment and then transmit the data to an end user through multi-hop communication without the need for any human intervention. However, due to the presence of typical obstacles in a home environment, error-free reception may not be possible, particularly for power constrained devices. A mobile sink based data transmission scheme can be one solution but obstacles create significant complexities for the sink movement path determination process. Therefore, an obstacle avoidance data routing scheme is of vital importance to the design of an efficient home automation system. This paper presents a mobile sink based obstacle avoidance routing scheme for a home monitoring system. The mobile sink collects data by traversing through the obstacle avoidance path. Through ZigBee based hardware implementation and verification, the proposed scheme successfully transmits data through the obstacle avoidance path to improve network performance in terms of life span, energy consumption and reliability. The application of this work can be applied to a wide range of intelligent pervasive consumer products and services including robotic vacuum cleaners and personal security robots1.

Does energy efficiency matter to home-buyers? An investigation of EPC ratings and transaction prices in England

This paper investigates whether energy performance ratings, as measured by mandatory Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), are reflected in the sale prices of residential properties. This is the first large-scale empirical study of this topic in England involving 333,095 dwellings sold at least twice in the period from 1995 to 2012. Applying hedonic regression and an augmented repeat sales regression, we find a positive relationship between the energy efficiency rating of a dwelling and the transaction price per square metre. The price effects of superior energy performance tend to be higher for terraced dwellings and flats compared to detached and semi-detached dwellings. The evidence is less clear-cut for rates of house price growth but remains supportive of a positive association. Overall, the results of this study suggest that energy efficiency labels have a measurable and significant impact on house prices in England