Construcció i explotació d’un complex de turisme rural a la població d’Àreu (Pirineu de Lleida)

Aquest treball de fi de carrera pretén desenvolupar el pla de negoci per a la construcció i l’explotació d’un complex de turisme rural al Pallars Sobirà. El projecte compren l’enderroc de les construccions preexistents, construcció i posterior explotació d’apartaments d’ús turístic i una cafeteria a la població d’ Àreu. Dins el pla de negoci s’hi contemplen els plans comercial, financer, l’anàlisi del mercat i l’entorn i una acurada definició del servei que s’oferirà. Amb el treball es vol, doncs, aportar idees pràctiques i útils per a la consecució dels objectius plantejats en el projecte familiar.

Atrial natriuretic peptides: reproducibility of renal effects and response of liver blood flow.

To assess the variability of the response to exogenous atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), it was infused at the rate of 1 microgram/min for 2 h in 6 salt-loaded normal volunteers under controlled conditions on 2 occasions at an interval of 1 week. The effect on solute excretion and the haemodynamic and endocrine actions were highly reproducible. The constant ANP infusion caused a delayed and prolonged excretion of sodium, chloride and calcium, no change in potassium or phosphate excretion or in glomerular filtration rate but a marked decrease in renal plasma flow. Blood pressure, heart rate and the plasma levels of angiotensin II, aldosterone, arginine vasopressin and plasma renin activity were unaltered. The effect of a 2-h infusion of ANP 0.5 microgram/min or its vehicle on apparent hepatic blood flow (HBF) was also studied in 14 normal volunteers by measuring the indocyanine green clearance. A 21% decrease in HBF was observed in subjects who received the ANP infusion (p less than 0.01 vs vehicle). Thus, ANP infused at a dose that did not lower blood pressure decreased both renal and liver blood flow in normotensive volunteers. The renal and endocrine responses to ANP were reproducible over a 1-week interval.

Soft tissue sarcomas with complex genomic profiles.

Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) with complex genomic profiles (50% of all STS) are predominantly composed of spindle cell/pleomorphic sarcomas, including leiomyosarcoma, myxofibrosarcoma, pleomorphic liposarcoma, pleomorphic rhabdomyosarcoma, malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor, angiosarcoma, extraskeletal osteosarcoma, and spindle cell/pleomorphic unclassified sarcoma (previously called spindle cell/pleomorphic malignant fibrous histiocytoma). These neoplasms show, characteristically, gains and losses of numerous chromosomes or chromosome regions, as well as amplifications. Many of them share recurrent aberrations (e.g., gain of 5p13-p15) that seem to play a significant role in tumor progression and/or metastatic dissemination. In this paper, we review the cytogenetic, molecular genetic, and clinicopathologic characteristics of the most common STS displaying complex genomic profiles. Features of diagnostic or prognostic relevance will be discussed when needed.

Circulation flow of enteropathogenia bacteria in institutionalized children. I. An epidemiologic study

The circulation flow and maintenance of enteropathogenic bacteria were studied from May 1982 to april 1983 in a population of institutionalized children and adult staff contacts in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Subjects were assigned to three groups; A and B, included, respectively, 105 and 46 children with diarrhea who were admitted in the institution in different periods, and group C with 82 adult contacts. Faecal cultures were positive in 35.2%, 39.1% and 19.7% of subjects of groups A, B and C, respectively. It suggests that the transmission was probably fostered by the environment because of as high as 30% of faecal contamination was found in environmental samples. Higher rate of isolation and elevated antibodies levels pointed out that Escherichia coli (EPEC) was the prevalent agent. Shigella predominated in the serological tests. These findings suggest that the institution itself may play an important role in the epidemiology and transmission of enteric infections in the community.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Lutzomyia reducta Feliciangeli et al., 1988, a host of Leishmania amazonensis, sympatric with two other members of the Flaviscutellata complex in southern Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil (Diptera: Psychodidae)

A member of the Lutzomyia flaviscutellata complex from Rondônia and southern Amazonas States, Brazil, is so close to the Venezuelan Lutzomyia olmeca recuta Feliciangeli et al., 1988, that it is regarded as belonging to the same species. Since this phlebotomine co-extis with L. olmeca nociva in Brazil, the subspecific status of the former is untenable and is rased to specific rank, as Lutzomyia reducta. The Brazilian material is described and illustrated, and compared with specimens of L. o. nociva and L. flaviscutellata from the same area. Keys to the known taxa of the flaviscutellata complex are presented. Leishmania amazonensis was isolated from one heavily infected specimen of L. reducta, making this the third species of the flaviscutellata complex to be implicated as a vector of this parasite in Brazil. The relative abundance of the three sympatric flaviscutellata complex species varies locally and appears to be related to soil drainage. L. reducta constituted about 25% if all phlebotomines captured in Disney traps at poorly drained and well drained site, but appears not to coloniza areas subject to periodic flooding. L. olmeca nociva was restricted to poorly drained areas not subject to flooding, whereas L. flaviscutellata was ubiquitous L. reducta has never been detected north of the Amazon river in Brazil, but absence of recosrds from western and northwestern Amazonas State may reflect lack of collecting in these areas.

Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) deaneorum: a new species in the albitarsis complex (Diptera: culicidae)

Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) deaneorum sp. n. is described from specimens collected in Guajará-Mirim, Rondônia state and Rio Branco, Acre state, Brazil, on human and animal baits, inside dwellings and from the progenies of engorged females. A detailed description of the shape of egg, external appearance of adult female and male, genitalias, female cibarial armature and complete chaetotaxy of pupa and larva show that it can be distinguished from Anopheles albitarsis from the type-locality and other areas by the paler general external appearance of the adult, the posterolateral tufts of scales, on the female abdominal terga and the branching of the outer anterior clypeal seta (3-C) of the fourth instar larva (as shown in illustrations). If species can also be distinguished from An. albitarsis from the type locality by the allele frequencies at 11 enzymic loci as represented by Nei's Genetic Distance.

An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macroeconomic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the microstructure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Gene flow among wild and domesticated almond species: insights from chloroplast and nuclear markers

Hybridization has played a central role in the evolutionary history of domesticated plants. Notably, several breeding programs relying on gene introgression from the wild compartment have been performed in fruit tree species within the genus Prunus but few studies investigated spontaneous gene flow among wild and domesticated Prunus species. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of genetic relationships and levels of gene flow between domesticated and wild Prunus species is needed. Combining nuclear and chloroplastic microsatellites, we investigated the gene flow and hybridization among two key almond tree species, the cultivated Prunus dulcis and one of the most widespread wild relative Prunus orientalis in the Fertile Crescent. We detected high genetic diversity levels in both species along with substantial and symmetric gene flow between the domesticated P. dulcis and the wild P. orientalis. These results were discussed in light of the cultivated species diversity, by outlining the frequent spontaneous genetic contributions of wild species to the domesticated compartment. In addition, crop-to-wild gene flow suggests that ad hoc transgene containment strategies would be required if genetically modified cultivars were introduced in the northwestern Mediterranean.

Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.