Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve

An affine asset pricing model in which traders have rational but heterogeneous expectations aboutfuture asset prices is developed. We use the framework to analyze the term structure of interestrates and to perform a novel three-way decomposition of bond yields into (i) average expectationsabout short rates (ii) common risk premia and (iii) a speculative component due to heterogeneousexpectations about the resale value of a bond. The speculative term is orthogonal to public informationin real time and therefore statistically distinct from common risk premia. Empirically wefind that the speculative component is quantitatively important accounting for up to a percentagepoint of yields, even in the low yield environment of the last decade. Furthermore, allowing for aspeculative component in bond yields results in estimates of historical risk premia that are morevolatile than suggested by standard Affine Gaussian term structure models which our frameworknests.

Territórios de machos, acasalamento, distribuição e relação com plantas em Protomeliturga turnerae (Ducke, 1907) (Hymenoptera, Andrenidae)

Protomeliturga turnerae (Ducke, 1907) represents the monotypic tribe Protomeliturgini (Andrenidae, Panurginae). The species is oligolectic on flowers of Turnera L. (Turneraceae). A survey of bees on flowers of Turneraceae and of material in entomological collections showed that P. turnerae is common and endemic in Northeastern Brazil, occurring from the State of Maranhão to Alagoas. In João Pessoa, Paraíba, we studied the reproductive biology and mating behavior of P. turnerae and its relations to plants. At the study site, the species was univoltine with males emerging 5-8 days before the females. Soon after emergence the males established territories on flowers of Turnera subulata Smith which they occupied during several days. Parts of each territory overlapped with those of 1 to 3 other males. On the average, a territory comprised 124 flowers, 59 being shared with other males. Males showed two mating strategies: patrolling the flowers of T. subulata in which females collected pollen or waiting in a specific flower inside the territory for arriving females. P. turnerae showed multiple mating. On the average, a male mated 7 times a day, each copula lasting 3 to 25 sec. We observed 2 to 3 males attempting to copulate with the same female. At the end of anthesis of T. subulata the males stopped flying activity and remained inside flowers until their closure.

Combined audit report on the institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Human Services including findings and recommendations and average cost per resident/patient information for the five years ended June 30, 2006

Combined audit report on the institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Human Services including findings and recommendations and average cost per resident/patient information for the five years ended June 30, 2006

Aspectos biológicos de Zabrotes subfasciatus (Bohemann, 1833) (Coleoptera, Bruchidae) em Phaseolus vulgaris L., cv. Carioca (Fabaceae), sob condições de laboratório

Zabrotes subfasciatus is a serious pest of common beans, P. vulgaris L.. In Brazil there are several studies dealing with resistance of bean genotypes to this insect, while other studies have emphasized the utilization of oils and powders from plants to repel their attack. In this paper, fecundity, fertility, pattern of oviposition, life cycle and longevity were evaluated for a Brazilian stock from the Goiás State on P. vulgaris cv. Carioca, at 30ºC and 70% R.H. The mean fecundity was 38 eggs per female and 73% of viability. Egg laying showed an aggregated pattern. Males and females lived an average of 13 and 9 days, respectively. The total life cycle lasted for about 28 days.

Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries andanalyze their structure and interdependences. Fluctuations are volatile and not highlycorrelated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous making average outputlosses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial.Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked withthe Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuationsis poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.

Phylogeographical structure, postglacial recolonization and barriers to gene flow in the distinctive Valais chromosome race of the common shrew (Sorex araneus).

Using one male-inherited and eight biparentally inherited microsatellite markers, we investigate the population genetic structure of the Valais chromosome race of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) in the Central Alps of Europe. Unexpectedly, the Y-chromosome microsatellite suggests nearly complete absence of male gene flow among populations from the St-Bernard and Simplon regions (Switzerland). Autosomal markers also show significant genetic structuring among these two geographical areas. Isolation by distance is significant and possible barriers to gene flow exist in the study area. Two different approaches are used to better understand the geographical patterns and the causes of this structuring. Using a principal component analysis for which testing procedure exists, and partial Mantel tests, we show that the St-Bernard pass does not represent a significant barrier to gene flow although it culminates at 2469 m, close to the highest altitudinal record for this species. Similar results are found for the Simplon pass, indicating that both passes represented potential postglacial recolonization routes into Switzerland from Italian refugia after the last Pleistocene glaciations. In contrast with the weak effect of these mountain passes, the Rhône valley lowlands significantly reduce gene flow in this species. Natural obstacles (the large Rhône river) and unsuitable habitats (dry slopes) are both present in the valley. Moreover, anthropogenic changes to landscape structures are likely to have strongly reduced available habitats for this shrew in the lowlands, thereby promoting genetic differentiation of populations found on opposite sides of the Rhône valley.

Understanding the Use of the Students’ Common Language (Creole/Portuguese) in the 7th Grade Capeverdean English Classroom

This thesis is a pedagogical and methodological work related to the Teacher’s use of the students’ common language in 7th grade (beginners-level 1) Capeverdean English classroom. It discusses the importance of a limited and judicious use of the students’ common language (Creole/Portuguese) as a teaching technique to assist in the teaching and learning process. This thesis contains four chapters. The first chapter defines and shows the difference between mother tongue, second language and foreign language, talks about the methods and approaches (classroom procedures) to teach English as a foreign language, the different opinions about the teacher’s use of the students’ first language in the EFL classroom, and presents two studies already conducted on the use of the students’ mother tongue in the English classroom in two different EFL context. The second Chapter describes the methodology of research to conduct a study on the use of the students’ common language (Creole/Portuguese) in the EFL Capeverdean context with 7th grade students. The third chapter is the presentation of the Results and Analyses of the field research. And finally the fourth chapter is the recommendations and conclusions.

The impact of the reference price system on the pharmaceutical market: A theoretical approach

This article analyses the impact of the reference pricesystem on the price-setting strategies of thepharmaceutical firms and on the level of generic usage.This model is the first to take explicitly into accountthe impact of the reference price mechanism on the levelof competition between brand-name and generic drugs andnational pharmaceutical spending. We consider aduopolistic model with one firm producing the brand-namedrug, whose patent has already expired, and the otherproducing the corresponding generic version. We work ina partial equilibrium framework where firms set pricessequentially and consumers face heterogeneous switchingcosts.We show that brand producers compensate thedecline of profits by selling greater quantities insteadof charging higher prices, thus fostering pricecompetition in the pharmaceutical market. This result isa consequence of both the assumption of a verticallydifferentiated model and the introduction of thereference price system.

The clinical profile of idiopathic and cat scratch neuroretinitis: who is at risk for recurrence?

Background: Most cases of neuroretinitis (NR) are idiopathic or due to cat scratch disease and occur as a single episode but a subgroup of patients experience recurrent attacks with cumulative visual loss. We reviewed our cases of NR to better characterize the clinical features of these subgroups in an effort to predict the risk of recurrence. Methods: Retrospective study of NR patients from a single institution. Sixty-seven patients were divided into three groups: 22 cases due to cat scratch disease (CSD-NR), 24 with idiopathic neuroretinitis (I-NR) and 21 (23 eyes) with recurrent neuroretinitis (R-NR). Results: Preceding systemic symptoms, predominantly central visual field (VF) loss and the combination of poor acuity with small relative afferent pupillary defect at presentation were common features of CSD-NR. There were no cases of recurrent CSD-NR. In the first attack of R-NR, the magnitude of VF loss at presentation was greater compared to the other two groups. While 39% of R-NR had a pattern of VF loss other than a central or cecocentral scotoma, only 13.6% of CSD-NR and 17% of I-NR showed this pattern. Visual recovery was least substantial for the R-NR group (average gain of 3.7 lines of Snellen acuity vs. 5 and 6.4 lines for CSD-NR and I-NR, respectively, and an average gain in VF score of 5.1 in the R-NR group compared to 8.2 and 11.5 for the other two groups). Conclusion: The main predictive factors for recurrence are absence of systemic symptoms, significant VF loss at presentation, particularly loss outside the central 30°, and less substantial visual recovery.

Common Iowa Fish, 2008

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Review of the literature on reference pricing

This paper reviews the literature on reference pricing (RP) in pharmaceutical markets. The RP strategy for cost containment of expenditure on drugs is analyzed as part of the procurement mechanism. We review the existing literature and the state-of-the-art regarding RP by focusing on its economic effects. In particular, we consider: (1) the institutional context and problem-related factors which appear to underline the need to implement an RP strategy; i.e., its nature, characteristics and the sort of health care problems commonly addressed; (2) how RP operates in practice; that is, how third party-payers (the insurers/buyers) have established the RP systems existing on the international scene (i.e., information methods, monitoring procedures and legislative provisions); (3)the range of effects resulting from particular RP strategies (including effects on choice of appropriate pharmaceuticals, insurer savings, total drug expenditures, prices of referenced and non-referenced products and dynamic efficiency; (4) the market failures which an RP policy is supposed to address and the main advantages and drawbacks which emerge from an analysis of its effects. Results suggest that RP systems achieve better their postulated goals (1) if cost inflation in pharmaceuticals is due to high prices rather than to the excess of prescription rates, (2) when the larger is the existing difference in prices among equivalent drugs, and (3) more important is the actual market for generics.

Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?

This paper studies the generation and transmission of international cycles in a multi-country model with production and consumption interdependencies. Two sources of disturbance are considered and three channels of propagation are compared. In the short run the contemporaneous correlation of disturbances determines the main features of the transmission. In the medium run production interdependencies account for the transmission of technology shocks and consumption interdependencies account for the transmission of government shocks. Technology disturbances, which are mildly correlated across countries, are more successful than government expenditure disturbances in reproducing actual data. The model also accounts for the low cross country consumption correlations observed in the data.