Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Early change in maladaptive defense style and development of the therapeutic alliance

Résumé Cette étude examine les changements précoces dans le Style Défensif Maladaptatif (SDM), le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique et la relation entre le SDM et l'alliance au cours d'une psychothérapie psychodynamique ultra-brève. Soixante-huit patients ambulatoires du centre de consultation psychiatrique et psychothérapique ont bénéficié d'une intervention psychodynamique en quatre séances. Les mesures des défenses et de l'alliance étaient effectuées à la première et à la dernière séance. Les patients qui ont débuté l'intervention avec une alliance faible et qui l'ont terminée avec une alliance haute (groupe de patients avec une alliance de croissance linéaire) ont diminué leur utilisation de défenses maladaptatives de manière significative au cours de la thérapie, alors que ce n'a pas été le cas pour les patients des groupes à alliances haute-stable et basse-stable. Les résultats ont montré qu'à la fin de l'intervention, le SDM et l'alliance étaient corrélés pour tous les patients. Cette corrélation intéressait plus particulièrement le groupe avec une alliance de croissance linéaire. Ces résultats suggèrent, que le développement de l'alliance thérapeutique reflètent le travail de collaboration entre le patient et son thérapeute alors qu'ils essayent de mieux comprendre les causes de la crise du patient. Cette compréhension peut aider à réduire les défenses initialement activées pour permettre au patient de se défendre de l'anxiété et d'un sentiment de détresse. Abstract This study examined the early change in Maladaptive Defense Style (MDS), the development of the Therapeutic Alliance, and the relationship between MDS and alliance, in a short psychodynamic intervention. Sixty-eight outpatients from a psychiatric clinic completed a four-session psychodynamic intervention. Defense and alliance measures were collected at the intake and the final session. Patients who began the intervention with a poor alliance but ended with a good alliance (linear growth therapeutic alliance group) significantly decreased their use of maladaptive defenses over the course of therapy, while patients in the high and low alliance groups did not. Results showed that at the end of the intervention, MDS and alliance were related across all patients. This relation concerned particularly the linear growth therapeutic alliance profile. These results suggest that the developing therapeutic alliance might reflect the collaborative work between the patient and the therapist as they try to understand the causes of the crisis. This understanding might help reduce maladaptive defenses that were initially activated to ward off anxiety and distress.

El cielo teñido de rojo: La visión del color en el Diarium spirituale de Rûzbihân Baqlî (m. 606/1209)

El presente artículo analiza la significación simbólica del color como manifestación de la Belleza divina en el Diarium spirituale (La revelación de los secretos, Kaslzfal-nsr2r) de RGzbihh Baqli ShirazT (m. 606/1209), uno de los grandes místicos del amor del sufismo persa. El diario de RGzbihan es un documento excepcional de la literatura sufí. Paul Nwyia ha descrito este texto como «único en el campo de La mística islámica, incluso de la literatura mística universal», y Henry Corbin era de la misma opinión. El diario de RGzbihari está lleno de visiones de asombrosa intensidad, y contiene encuentros extraordinarios con Dios, los ángeles, los profetas y los santos sufíes. A su vez, en el arte moderno, los Diarios de Paul Klee muestran la vigencia del sentido espiritual del color como una forma de visión interior.

Climate Change Impacts on Iowa, 2010, January 1, 2011

Today, perhaps without their realization, Iowans are factoring climate change into their lives and activities. Current farming practices and flood mitigation efforts, for example, are reflecting warmer winters, longer growing seasons, warmer nights, higher dew-point temperatures, increased humidity, greater annual stream flows, and more frequent severe precipitation events (Fig. 1) than were prevalent during the past 50 years. Some of the effects of these changes (such as longer growing season) may be positive, while others (particularly the tendency for greater precipitation events that lead to flooding) are negative. Climate change embodies all of these results and many more in a complex manner. The Iowa legislature has been proactive in seeking advice about climate change and its impacts on our state. In 2007, Governor Culver and the Iowa General Assembly enacted Senate File 485 and House File 2571 to create the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC). ICCAC members reported an emissions inventory and a forecast for Iowa’s greenhouse gases (GHGs), policy options for reducing Iowa’s GHG, and two scenarios charting GHG reductions of 50% and 90% by 2050 from a baseline of 2005. Following issuance of the final report in December 2008, the General Assembly enacted a new bill in 2009 (Sec. 27, Section 473.7, Code 2009 amended) that set in motion a review of climate change impacts and policies in Iowa. This report is the result of that 2009 bill. It continues the dialogue between Iowa’s stakeholders, scientific community, and the state legislature that was begun with these earlier reports.

Stages of change, barriers, benefits, and preferences for exercise in RA patients: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the distribution of exercise stages of change in a rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cohort, and to examine patients' perceptions of exercise benefits, barriers, and their preferences for exercise. METHODS: One hundred and twenty RA patients who attended the Rheumatology Unit of a University Hospital were asked to participate in the study. Those who agreed were administered a questionnaire to determine their exercise stage of change, their perceived benefits and barriers to exercise, and their preferences for various features of exercise. RESULTS: Eighty-nine (74%) patients were finally included in the analyses. Their mean age was 58.4 years, mean RA duration 10.1 years, and mean disease activity score 2.8. The distribution of exercise stages of change was as follows: precontemplation (n = 30, 34%), contemplation (n = 11, 13%), preparation (n = 5, 6%), action (n = 2, 2%), and maintenance (n = 39, 45%). Compared to patients in the maintenance stage of change, precontemplators exhibited different demographic and functional characteristics and reported less exercise benefits and more barriers to exercise. Most participants preferred exercising alone (40%), at home (29%), at a moderate intensity (64%), with advice provided by a rheumatologist (34%) or a specialist in exercise and RA (34%). Walking was by far the preferred type of exercise, in both the summer (86%) and the winter (51%). CONCLUSIONS: Our cohort of patients with RA was essentially distributed across the precontemplation and maintenance exercise stages of change. These subgroups of patients exhibit psychological and functional differences that make their needs different in terms of exercise counselling.

Ontogeny of Sleeping in Color - Linking melanism to sleep architecture and rhythmicity variation in wild barn owl nestlings

The function of sleep remains unknown. To gain insight into the function of sleep in natural conditions, I assessed variation in sleep architecture and its link with fitness-related phenotypic traits. I considered melanin-based coloration because its underlying genetic basis is very well known giving an opportunity to examine whether some genes pleiotropically regulate both coloration and sleep. The melanocortin system is known to generate covariation between melanin-based coloration and other phenotypes like behaviour, physiology and life history traits. I investigated whether this system of genes could participate in the co-expression of coloration and sleep. I carried out a study with nestling barn owls (Tyto alba) in order to tackle the potential link between variation in color traits and the ontogeny of sleep under natural conditions. For this I established a suitable method for recording the brain activity (electroencephalogram) of owls in nature. Birds are especially interesting, because they convergently evolved sleep states similar to those exhibited by mammals. As in mammals, I found that in owlets time spent in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep declines with age, a relationship thought to eflect developmental changes in the brain. Thus this developmental trajectory appears to reflect a fundamental feature of sleep. Additionally, I discovered an association between a gene involved in melanism expressed in the feather follicles (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2) and the age-related changes in sleep in the brain. Nestlings with higher expression levels of PCSK2 showed a more precocial pattern of sleep development and a higher degree of melanin-based coloration compared to nestlings with lower PCSK2 expression. Also sleep architecture and the development of rhythmicity in brain and physical activity was related to plumage traits of the nestlings and their biological parents. This pattern during ontogeny might reflect differences in life l history strategies, antipredator behaviour and developmental pace. Therefore, differently colored individuals may differentially deal with trade-offs between the costs and benefits of sleep which in turn lead to differences in brain organization and ultimately fitness. These results should stimulate evolutionary biologists to consider sleep as a major life history trait. Résumé La fonction du sommeil reste inconnue. Afin d'acquérir une meilleur compréhension de la fonction du sommeil dans les conditions naturelles, j'ai analysé la variation dans l'architecture du sommeil et son lien avec d'autres traits phénotypiques liés au succès reproducteur (fitness). J'ai choisi et examiné la coloration mélanique, car ses bases génétiques sont bien connues et il est ainsi possible d'étudier si certains gènes, de façon pléiotropique régulent à la fois la coloration et le sommeil. J'ai exploré si ce système génétique était impliqué dans la co-expression de la coloration et du sommeil. J'ai effectué mon étude sur des poussins de chouette effraie (Tyto alba) en condition naturelle, pour rechercher ce lien potentiel entre la variation de la coloration et l'ontogenèse du sommeil. Dans ce but, j'ai établi une méthodologie permettant d'enregistrer l'activité cérébrale (électroencéphalogramme) des chouettes dans la nature. Les oiseaux sont particulièrement intéressants car ils ont développé, par évolution convergente, des phases de sommeil similaires à celles des mammifères. De manière semblable à ce qui a été montré chez les mammifères, j'ai découvert que le temps passé dans le sommeil paradoxal diminue avec l'âge des poussins. On pense que ceci est dû aux changements développementaux au niveau du cerveau. Cette trajectoire développementale semble refléter une caractéristique fondamentale du sommeil. J'ai également découvert une association entre l'un des gènes impliqué dans le mélanisme, exprimé dans les follicules plumeux (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2), et les changements dans la structure du sommeil avec l'âge. Les poussins ayant un niveau d'expression génétique élevé de la PCSK2 présentent une structure du sommeil plus précoce et un taux de coloration dû à la mélanine plus élevé que des poussins avec un niveau d'expression moindre de la PCSK2. L'architecture du sommeil et le développement de la rythmicité dans le cerveau ainsi que l'activité physique sont également liés à la coloration des plumes des poussins et pourraient ainsi refléter des différences de stratégies d'histoire de vie, de comportements anti-prédateur et de vitesses développementales. Ainsi, des individus de coloration différente sembleraient traiter différemment les coûts et les bénéfices du sommeil, ce qui aurait des conséquences sur l'organisation cérébrale et pour finir, sur le succès reproducteur. Ces résultats devraient encourager les biologistes évolutionnistes à considérer le sommeil comme un important trait d'histoire de vie. Zusammenfassung Die Funktion von Schlaf ist noch unbekannt. Um mehr Einsicht in diese unter natürlichen Bedingungen zu bekommen, habe ich die Variation in der Schlafarchitektur und die Verknüpfung mit phänotypischen Merkmalen, die mit der Fitness zusammenhängen, studiert. Ich habe mir melanin-basierte Färbung angesehen, da die zugrunde liegende genetische Basis bekannt ist und somit die Möglichkeit gegeben ist, zu untersuchen, ob einige Gene beides regulieren, Färbung und Schlaf. Das melanocortin System generiert eine Kovariation zwischen melanin-basierter Färbung und anderen phänotypischer Merkmale wie Verhalten, Physiologie und Überlebensstrategien. Ich habe untersucht, ob dieses Gensystem an einer gleichzeitigen Steuerung von Färbung und Schlaf beteiligt ist. Dazu habe ich Schleiereulen (Tyto alba) studiert um einen möglichen Zusammenhang zwischen der Variation in der Pigmentierung und der Entwicklung des Schlafs unter natürlichen Bedingungen zu entdecken. Für diese Studie entwickelte ich eine Methode um die Gehirnaktivität (Elektroenzephalogramm) bei Eulen in der Natur aufzunehmen. Vögel sind besonders interessant, da sie die gleichen Schlafstadien aufweisen wie Säugetiere und diese unabhängig konvergent entwickelt haben. Genauso wie bei Säugetieren nahm die Dauer des sogenannten ,,rapid eye movement" (REM) - Schlafes mit zunehmendem Alter ab. Es wird angenommen, dass dieser Zusammenhang die Entwicklung des Gehirns widerspiegelt. Daher scheint dieses Entwicklungsmuster ein fundamentaler Aspekt von Schlaf zu sein. Zusätzlich entdeckte ich einen Zusammenhang zwischen der Aktivität eines Gens in den Federfollikeln (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 2, PCSK2), das für die Ausprägung schwarzer Punkte auf den Federn der Eulen verantwortlich ist, und den altersabhängigen Änderungen im Schlafmuster im Gehirn. Küken mit höherer Aktivität von PCSK2 zeigten eine frühreifere Schlafentwicklung und eine dunklere Färbung als Küken mit niedriger PCSK2 Aktivität. Die Architekture des Schlafes und die Entwicklung der Rhythmik im Gehirn und die der physischen Aktivität ist mit der Färbung des Gefieders von den Küken und ihren Eltern verknüpft. Dieses Muster während der Entwicklung kann Unterschiede in Überlebensstrategien, Feindabwehrverhalten und in der Entwicklungsgeschwindigkeit reflektieren. Unterschiedlich gefärbte Individuen könnten unterschiedliche Strategien haben um zwischen den Kosten und Nutzen von Schlaf zu entscheiden, was zu Unterschieden in der Gehirnstruktur führen kann und letztendlich zur Fitness. Diese Ergebnisse sollten Evolutionsbiologen stimulieren Schlaf als einen wichtigen Bestandteil des Lebens zu behandeln.

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

Technological Change and Immigration

We develop a simple model where two technologies are available to produce the same good, and we study under what conditions both will be used. We use the model to analyze the consequences of the simultaneous use of two different technologies for the economic variables and economic growth. Finally, we explore how migrations of factors affect the technological change and the performance of the economy.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Se former à l'entretien motivationnel pour aider ses patients à changer: Les étudiants en médecine le confirment [Learning motivational interviewing to help patients change their health-related behaviors: medical students confirm it].

At the Lausanne University, 5th year medical students were trained in Motivational interviewing (MI). Eight hours of training improved their competence in the use of this approach. This experience supports the implementation of MI training in medical schools. Motivational interviewing allows the health professional to actively involve the patient in this behavior change process (drinking, smoking, diet, exercise, medication adherence, etc.), by encouraging reflection and reinforcing personal motivation and resources.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

The Half-Life of Election Pledges : What makes MPs change their positions?

"Thou shalt not bear false witness," as we all know. Yet changing one's mind in case of respectable reasons seems to be allowed. Which is good news for politicians, but reduces the effectiveness of prospective voting, i.e. the focus on "the commitments of candidates to take actions that citizens desire to be taken" (Powell 2000: 9). This may be bad news for voters. By comparing pre-election commitments of Swiss members of parliament (MPs) with actual voting behaviour in the lower house of parliament, the following article explores the question how much confidence voters can have in prospective voting and what factors explain (non-)fulfilment of election pledges.