Assessing the natural ventilation cooling potential of office buildings in different climate zones in China

This paper presents an investigation of the natural ventilation cooling potential (NVCP) of office buildings in the five generally recognised climate zones in China using the Thermal Resistance Ventilation (TRV) model, which is a simplified, coupled, thermal and airflow model. The acceptable operative temperature for naturally conditioned space supplied by the ASHARE Standard 55-2004 has been used for the comfort temperature setting. Dynamic simulations for a typical office room in the five representative cities, which are Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Guangzhou, have been carried out. The study demonstrates that the NVCP depends on the multiple impacts of climate, the building's thermal characteristics, internal gains, ventilation profiles and regimes. The work shows how the simplified method can be used to generate detailed, indoor, operative temperature data based on the various building conditions and control profiles which are used to investigate the NVCP at the strategic design stage. The simulation results presented in this paper can be used as a reference guideline for natural ventilation design in China.

Potato glycoalkaloids: formation and strategies for mitigation

With the increasing production and consumption of potato and its products, glycoalkaloid (GA) formation and toxicity are likely to become an important focus for food safety researchers and public health agencies. Not only the presence of GA, particularly in the form of a-solanine and a-chaconine, but also the changes occurring as a result of various post-harvest handling practices and storage, are critical issues influencing the quality of stored potatoes. Studies on various factors (pre-harvest, during harvest anal post-harvest) affecting GA have been carried out from time to time, but it is difficult to compare the results of one study with another due to wide variation in the parameters chosen. This review aims to develop a clear understanding of these issues. Published information on the types of GA, their effects on health, their typical concentrations in potatoes, their formation mechanisms, and how their levels can be controlled by following appropriate post harvest practices and storage regimes are critically analysed. The levels of GA in potato can be controlled effectively by adopting appropriate post-harvest practices. Further studies are necessary, however, to investigate best practices, which either check completely or retard substantially their formation. (C) 2008 Society of Chemical Industry.

Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels

Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

Significance tests in climate science

A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. The significance statistic is not a quantitative measure of how confident we can be of the ‘reality’ of a given result. It is concluded that a significance test very rarely provides useful quantitative information.

Global climate change and tree nutrition: effects of elevated CO2 and temperature

Although tree nutrition has not been the primary focus of large climate change experiments on trees, we are beginning to understand its links to elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature changes. This review focuses on the major nutrients, namely N and P, and deals with the effects of climate change on the processes that alter their cycling and availability. Current knowledge regarding biotic and abiotic agents of weathering, mobilization and immobilization of these elements will be discussed. To date, controlled environment studies have identified possible effects of climate change on tree nutrition. Only some of these findings, however, were verified in ecosystem scale experiments. Moreover, to be able to predict future effects of climate change on tree nutrition at this scale, we need to progress from studying effects of single factors to analysing interactions between factors such as elevated CO2, temperature or water availability.

Multiple stressors on biotic interactions: how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination

Global change may substantially affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning but little is known about its effects on essential biotic interactions. Since different environmental drivers rarely act in isolation it is important to consider interactive effects. Here, we focus on how two key drivers of anthropogenic environmental change, climate change and the introduction of alien species, affect plant–pollinator interactions. Based on a literature survey we identify climatically sensitive aspects of species interactions, assess potential effects of climate change on these mechanisms, and derive hypotheses that may form the basis of future research. We find that both climate change and alien species will ultimately lead to the creation of novel communities. In these communities certain interactions may no longer occur while there will also be potential for the emergence of new relationships. Alien species can both partly compensate for the often negative effects of climate change but also amplify them in some cases. Since potential positive effects are often restricted to generalist interactions among species, climate change and alien species in combination can result in significant threats to more specialist interactions involving native species.

Meteorology and climate inspire secondary school students

As part of its National Science and Engineering Week activities in 2009 and 2010, the University of Reading organised two open days for 60 local key stage 4 pupils. The theme of both open days was ‘How do we predict weather and climate?’ Making use of the students’ familiarity with weather and climate, several concepts of relevance to secondary science were investigated. The open days also provided an opportunity for more than 30 research staff from the university to interact with the students. Feedback from students and teachers was extremely positive. This article shows how meteorological science can be used to illustrate elements of the secondary science and mathematics curricula.

Adapting to climate change: an evolving research programme

Since its launch in 1977, the scientific issues addressed by papers published in Climatic Change have changed considerably. Nuclear winter came and went, and papers have come from an increasingly diverse range of disciplines. Most obvious, of course, has been the emergence to overwhelming dominance of papers concerned with the processes and consequences associated with the climate changes driven by increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases. Within this theme too, it is possible to track the evolution of different topics over the last thirty years. In the pages of Climatic Change, as within the climate change research community, increased attention has been given to adaptation to a changing climate. Here, I examine the scale and characteristics of adaptation research in Climatic Change, draw some general conclusions from the research published in Climatic Change, and suggest from this some future research directions.

Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans

Climate change is expected to produce reductions in water availability in England, potentially necessitating adaptive action by the water industry to maintain supplies. As part of Ofwat's fifth Periodic Review (PR09), water companies recently released their draft Water Resources Management Plans, setting out how each company intends to maintain the balance between the supply and demand for water over the next 25 years, following Environment Agency guidelines. This paper reviews these plans to determine company estimates of the impact of climate change on water supply relative to other resource pressures. The approaches adopted for incorporating the impact in the plans and the proposed management solutions are also identified. Climate change impacts for individual resource zones range from no reductions in deployable output to greater than 50% over the planning period. The estimated national aggregated loss of deployable output under a “core” climate scenario is ~520 Ml/d (3% of deployable output) by 2034/35, the equivalent of the supply of one entire water company (South West Water). Climate change is the largest single driver of change in water supplies over the planning period. Over half of the climate change impact is concentrated in southern England. In extreme cases, climate change uncertainty is of the same magnitude as the change under the core scenario (up to a loss of ~475 Ml/d). 44 of the 68 resource zones with available data are estimated to have a climate change impact. In 35 of these climate change has the greatest impact although in 10 zones sustainability reductions have a greater impact. Of the overall change in downward pressure on the supply-demand balance over the planning period, ~56% is accounted for by increased demand (620 Ml/d) and supply side climate change accounts for ~37% (407 Ml/d). Climate change impacts have a cumulative impact in concert with other changing supply side reducing components increasing the national pressure on the supply-demand balance. Whilst the magnitude of climate change appears to justify its explicit consideration, it is rare that adaptation options are planned solely in response to climate change but as a suite of options to provide a resilient supply to a range of pressures (including significant demand side pressures). Supply-side measures still tend to be considered by water companies to be more reliable than demand-side measures.

Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability

This paper presents preliminary results from an assessment of the barriers to adaptation to water supply shortage in a case study catchment in south east England with multiple supply companies. The investigation applies a conceptual framework, which distinguishes between generic barriers affecting the ability of supply companies to make adaptation decisions, and specific barriers to the implementation of each option. The preliminary analysis suggests that whilst there is a widespread awareness of the challenge of climate change, and a conceptual understanding of the need for adaptation, some of the generic barriers that will affect detailed evaluations and actual adaptation decisions have yet to be approached. The analysis also shows that different individual adaptation options are assessed differently by different stakeholders, and that there are differences in the barriers to adoption between supply-side and demand-side measures. First, however, the paper develops the general conceptual framework for the characterisation of the barriers to adaptation used in the study.

Regional impacts of climate change

The chapter provides an overview of major climate change impacts, at the regional scale.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.