Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Variance reduction methods for simulation of densities on Wiener space

We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.

When rare is just a matter of sampling: unexpected dominance of clubtail dragonflies (Odonata, Gomphidae) through different collecting methods at Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

When rare is just a matter of sampling: Unexpected dominance of clubtail dragonflies (Odonata, Gomphidae) through different collecting methods at Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Capture of dragonfly adults during two short expeditions to Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó, Minas Gerais State, using three distinct collecting methodsaerial nets, Malaise and light sheet trapsis reported. The results are outstanding due the high number of species of Gomphidae (7 out of 26 Odonata species), including a new species of Cyanogomphus Selys, 1873, obtained by two non-traditional collecting methods. Because active collecting with aerial nets is the standard approach for dragonfly inventories, we discuss some aspects of the use of traps, comparing our results with those in the literature, suggesting they should be used as complementary methods in faunistic studies. Furthermore, Zonophora campanulata annulata Belle, 1983 is recorded for the first time from Minas Gerais State and taxonomic notes about Phyllogomphoides regularis (Selys, 1873) and Progomphus complicatus Selys, 1854 are also given.

Comparative abundance and diversity of Dryininae (Hymenoptera, Dryinidae) in three savannah phytophysiognomies in southeastern Brazil, under three sampling methods

Comparative abundance and diversity of Dryininae (Hymenoptera, Dryinidae) in three savannah phytophysiognomies in southeastern Brazil, under three sampling methods. This study aimed to assess the abundance and diversity of Dryininae in riparian vegetation, Brazilian savannah, and savannah woodland vegetation at the Estação Ecológica de Jataí, in Luiz Antônio, State of São Paulo, Brazil, by using Moericke, Malaise, and light traps. The sampling was carried out from December 2006 to November 2009, and 371 specimens of Dryininae were caught, with the highest frequencies in spring and summer. Fourteen species of Dryinus Latreille, 1804 and one of Thaumatodryinus Perkins, 1905 were identified. The highest frequencies of Dryinus in the riparian vegetation differed significantly from those obtained in the Brazilian savannah and savannah woodland vegetation. In the riparian vegetation, the highest number of Dryinus was collected using light traps and the interactions between abundance and the collection method used were significant. The number of specimens of Dryinus collected in the Brazilian savannah and savannah woodland vegetation using Malaise traps did not differ significantly from those obtained using Moericke traps. Males significantly outnumbered females in the sex ratio of Dryinus. The species diversity of Dryinus based on females collected using Malaise traps was high in the Brazilian savannah. Furthermore, high species richness of female Dryinus was observed in riparian vegetation (six species) and Brazilian savannah (five). The light trap was the most successful method for sampling diversity of Dryininae.

Conceptos generales y métodos de estudio en farmacogenética [General concepts and study methods in pharmacogenetics.]

Pharmacogenetics, the study of how individual genetic profiles influence the response to drugs, is an important topic. Results from pharmacogenetics studies in various clinical settings may lead to personalized medicine. Herein, we present the most important concepts of this discipline, as well as currently-used study methods.

Minimum requirements for application of ink dating methods based on solvent analysis in casework

Several ink dating methods based on solvents analysis using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) were proposed in the last decades. These methods follow the drying of solvents from ballpoint pen inks on paper and seem very promising. However, several questions arose over the last few years among questioned documents examiners regarding the transparency and reproducibility of the proposed techniques. These questions should be carefully studied for accurate and ethical application of this methodology in casework. Inspired by a real investigation involving ink dating, the present paper discusses this particular issue throughout four main topics: aging processes, dating methods, validation procedures and data interpretation. This work presents a wide picture of the ink dating field, warns about potential shortcomings and also proposes some solutions to avoid reporting errors in court.

Simple and fast methods based on solid-phase extraction coupled to liquid chromatography with UV detection for the monitoring of caffeine in natural and waste waters as marker of anthropogenic impact

Two concentration methods for fast and routine determination of caffeine (using HPLC-UV detection) in surface, and wastewater are evaluated. Both methods are based on solid-phase extraction (SPE) concentration with octadecyl silica sorbents. A common “offline” SPE procedure shows that quantitative recovery of caffeine is obtained with 2 mL of an elution mixture solvent methanol-water containing at least 60% methanol. The method detection limit is 0.1 μg L−1 when percolating 1 L samples through the cartridge. The development of an “online” SPE method based on a mini-SPE column, containing 100 mg of the same sorbent, directly connected to the HPLC system allows the method detection limit to be decreased to 10 ng L−1 with a sample volume of 100 mL. The “offline” SPE method is applied to the analysis of caffeine in wastewater samples, whereas the “on-line” method is used for analysis in natural waters from streams receiving significant water intakes from local wastewater treatment plants