Observational evidence of a coronal mass ejection distortion directly attributable to a structured solar wind

We present the first observational evidence of the near-Sun distortion of the leading edge of a coronal mass ejection (CME) by the ambient solar wind into a concave structure. On 2007 November 14, a CME was observed by coronagraphs onboard the STEREO-B spacecraft, possessing a circular cross section. Subsequently the CME passed through the field of view of the STEREO-B Heliospheric Imagers where the leading edge was observed to distort into an increasingly concave structure. The CME observations are compared to an analytical flux rope model constrained by a magnetohydrodynamic solar wind solution. The resultant bimodal speed profile is used to kinematically distort a circular structure that replicates the initial shape of the CME. The CME morphology is found to change rapidly over a relatively short distance. This indicates an approximate radial distance in the heliosphere where the solar wind forces begin to dominate over the magnetic forces of the CME influencing the shape of the CME.

Housing and property restitution and IDP return in Kosovo

The establishment of the Housing and Property Directorate (HPD) and Claims Commission (HPCC) in Kosovo has reflected an increasing focus internationally on the post-conflict restitution of housing and property rights. In approximately three years of full-scale operation, the institutions have managed to make a property rights determination on almost all of the approximate 30,000 contested residential properties. As such, HPD and HPCC are being looked to by many in other post-conflict areas as an example of how to proceed. While the efficiency of the organizations is commendable, one of the key original goals - the return of displaced persons to their homes of origin - has to a large degree been left aside. The paper focuses on two distinct failures of the international community with respect to the functioning of HPD/HPCC and its possible effect on returns: a failure of coordination between HPD/HPCC and other organizations working on returns, and the isolation of residential property rights determinations from other aspects of building a property rights-respecting culture in Kosovo.

Calibrating flood inundation models: identifying and addressing uncertainty in satellite observed flood extents

Improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery have enabled extraction of water surface elevations at the margins of the flood. Comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations provides a new means for calibrating and validating flood inundation models, however the uncertainty in this observed data has yet to be addressed. Here a flood inundation model is calibrated using a probabilistic treatment of the observed data. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to determine an outline of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, using a 12.5m ERS-1 image. Points at approximately 100m intervals along this outline are selected, and the water surface elevation recorded as the LiDAR DEM elevation at each point. With a planar water surface from the gauged upstream to downstream water elevations as an approximation, the water surface elevations at points along this flooded extent are compared to their ‘expected’ value. The pattern of errors between the two show a roughly normal distribution, however when plotted against coordinates there is obvious spatial autocorrelation. The source of this spatial dependency is investigated by comparing errors to the slope gradient and aspect of the LiDAR DEM. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the flood event is set-up to investigate the effect of observed data uncertainty on the calibration of flood inundation models. Multiple simulations are run using different combinations of friction parameters, from which the optimum parameter set will be selected. For each simulation a T-test is used to quantify the fit between modelled and observed water surface elevations. The points chosen for use in this T-test are selected based on their error. The criteria for selection enables evaluation of the sensitivity of the choice of optimum parameter set to uncertainty in the observed data. This work explores the observed data in detail and highlights possible causes of error. The identification of significant error (RMSE = 0.8m) between approximate expected and actual observed elevations from the remotely sensed data emphasises the limitations of using this data in a deterministic manner within the calibration process. These limitations are addressed by developing a new probabilistic approach to using the observed data.

Force constants and dipole‐moment derivatives of molecules from perturbed Hartree–Fock calculations

General expressions for the force constants and dipole‐moment derivatives of molecules are derived, and the problems arising in their practical application are reviewed. Great emphasis is placed on the use of the Hartree–Fock function as an approximate wavefunction, and a number of its properties are discussed and re‐emphasised. The main content of this paper is the development of a perturbed Hartree–Fock theory that makes possible the direct calculation of force constants and dipole‐moment derivatives from SCF–MO wavefunctions. Essentially the theory yields ∂ϕi / ∂RJα, the derivative of an MO with respect to a nuclear coordinate.

Rotational spectra induced by vibrations

Mizushima and Venkateswarlu showed in 1953 that certain molecules have the property that excited vibrational states may possess rotational spectra even when the rotational spectrum of the ground vibrational state is forbidden by symmetry. We call such a spectrum a vibrationally induced rotational spectrum, and have made a systematic examination of the point groups which permit such behaviour. We also give formulae for the approximate line frequencies and intensities in these spectra, and discuss some of the problems involved in observing them. The spectra can only arise from degenerate vibrational states, and are of three possible types: i) symmetric top perpendicular spectra, shown by molecules belonging to the point groups Dnh, Dn and Cnh, where n is odd; (ii) symmetric top parallel spectra, shown by molecules belonging to Dnd and S2n, where n is even; and (iii) spherical top spectra, shown by molecules belonging to T or Td. Excited vibrational states of polar molecules of point groups Cnv or Cn, where n is odd, may also possess vibrationally induced perpendicular components of type (i), in addition to their ordinary parallel spectra. In addition to the above limitations on the point groups there are, in general, limitations on the symmetry species of the degenerate vibrational states.

Vibration-rotation bands of diazomethane

Some absorption bands of diazomethane vapour between 1950-3500 cm-1 have been measured with very high resolving power. The rotational structure of two parallel bands and of one perpendicular band has been resolved, and approximate values have been determined for the rotational constants. The results are consistent with the geometrical structure usually accepted for this molecule. A peculiarity in the results for the band near 2100 cm-1, together with other facts, leads to the suggestion that a tautomeric form of this molecule exists, HCN=NH, being an isoelectronic analogue of hydrazoic acid.

C–H local modes in cyclobutene. II. Laser photoacoustic studies 10 000–17 000 cm−1. Vibrational structure and C–H local mode dynamics

In part I of this study [Baggott, Clase, and Mills, Spectrochim. Acta Part A 42, 319 (1986)] we presented FTIR spectra of gas phase cyclobutene and modeled the v=1–3 stretching states of both olefinic and methylenic C–H bonds in terms of a local mode model. In this paper we present some improvements to our original model and make use of recently derived ‘‘x,K relations’’ to find the equivalent normal mode descriptions. The use of both the local mode and normal mode approaches to modeling the vibrational structure is described in some detail. We present evidence for Fermi resonance interactions between the methylenic C–H stretch overtones and ring C–C stretch vibrations, revealed in laser photoacoustic spectra in the v=4–6 region. An approximate model vibrational Hamiltonian is proposed to explain the observed structure and is used to calculate the dynamics of the C–H stretch local mode decay resulting from interaction with lower frequency ring modes. The implications of our experimental and theoretical studies for mode‐selective photochemistry are discussed briefly.

Parcel theory in three dimensions and the calculation of SCAPE

Slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) is a measure of the degree to which the atmosphere is unstable to conditional symmetric instability (CSI). It has, until now, been defined by parcel theory in which the atmosphere is assumed to be nonevolving and balanced, that is, two-dimensional. When applying this two-dimensional theory to three-dimensional evolving flows, these assumptions can be interpreted as an implicit assumption that a timescale separation exists between a relatively rapid timescale for slantwise ascent and a slower timescale for the development of the system. An approximate extension of parcel theory to three dimensions is derived and it is shown that calculations of SCAPE based on the assumption of relatively rapid slantwise ascent can be qualitatively in error. For a case study example of a developing extratropical cyclone, SCAPE calculated along trajectories determined without assuming the existence of the timescale separation show large SCAPE values for parcels ascending from the warm sector and along the warm front. These parcels ascend into the cloud head within which there is some evidence consistent with the release of CSI from observational and model cross sections. This region of high SCAPE was not found for calculations along the relatively rapidly ascending trajectories determined by assuming the existence of the timescale separation.

xhRank: ranking entities on the Semantic Web

In general, ranking entities (resources) on the Semantic Web (SW) is subject to importance, relevance, and query length. Few existing SW search systems cover all of these aspects. Moreover, many existing efforts simply reuse the technologies from conventional Information Retrieval (IR), which are not designed for SW data. This paper proposes a ranking mechanism, which includes all three categories of rankings and are tailored to SW data.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Effect of feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or soluble sugars with malic acid on milk production

Two trials were conducted to evaluate effects of feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or soluble sugars and malic acid on milk production. In trial 1, 257 cows at four sites were fed a basal diet consisting of no more than 60% of forage DM as corn silage and less than 40% as alfalfa hay. Cows were assigned randomly within site, parity, and two stages of lactation to: 1) control; 2) enzyme A; 3) enzyme B; and 4) soluble sugars and malic acid. There was a 14-d pretreatment and an 84-d treatment period. Enzyme solutions were sprayed on either the forage component or the TMR each day while mixing feed. Trial 2 was similar, except 122 cows at one site in the United Kingdom were fed diets containing forage that was 75% corn silage and 25% grass silage, and all cows began the study between 25 to 31 DIM. Mean milk productions for 233 cows that completed trial 1 were 32.9, 32.5, 32.4, and 32.9 kg/d for control, enzyme A, enzyme B, and soluble sugars and malic acid, respectively. Mean milk productions for 116 cows that completed trial 2 were 28.2, 27.9, 28.8, and 28.4 kg/d, respectively. In vitro analyses of the activities of enzyme solutions indicated that all major cellulose and hemicellulose degrading activities were present; however, the pH optima (approximate pH = 4 to 5) were more acidic, and the temperature optimum (approximately 50 C) was greater than normal pH and temperature in the rumen. If fibrolytic activity in the rumen is a major mechanism of action of supplemental fibrolytic enzymes, it appears that considerable activity of these preparations was lost due to conditions in the rumen. In conclusion, feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or malic acid with soluble sugars had no effect on milk production under the conditions used in this study.

Including a time-of-year effect in the analysis of a matched case-control study

Motivated by a matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for meningococcal disease amongst adolescents, we consider the analysis of matched case-control studies where disease incidence, and possibly other risk factors, vary with time of year. For the cases, the time of infection may be recorded. For controls, however, the recorded time is simply the time of data collection, which is shortly after the time of infection for the matched case, and so depends on the latter. We show that the effect of risk factors and interactions may be adjusted for the time of year effect in a standard conditional logistic regression analysis without introducing any bias. We also show that, if the time delay between data collection for cases and controls is constant, provided this delay is not very short, estimates of the time of year effect are approximately unbiased. In the case that the length of the delay varies over time, the estimate of the time of year effect is biased. We obtain an approximate expression for the degree of bias in this case. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of sample size formulae for 2x2 cross-over designs applied to bioequivalence studies

We consider the comparison of two formulations in terms of average bioequivalence using the 2 × 2 cross-over design. In a bioequivalence study, the primary outcome is a pharmacokinetic measure, such as the area under the plasma concentration by time curve, which is usually assumed to have a lognormal distribution. The criterion typically used for claiming bioequivalence is that the 90% confidence interval for the ratio of the means should lie within the interval (0.80, 1.25), or equivalently the 90% confidence interval for the differences in the means on the natural log scale should be within the interval (-0.2231, 0.2231). We compare the gold standard method for calculation of the sample size based on the non-central t distribution with those based on the central t and normal distributions. In practice, the differences between the various approaches are likely to be small. Further approximations to the power function are sometimes used to simplify the calculations. These approximations should be used with caution, because the sample size required for a desirable level of power might be under- or overestimated compared to the gold standard method. However, in some situations the approximate methods produce very similar sample sizes to the gold standard method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence-matrix diagnostic of a data assimilation system

The influence matrix is used in ordinary least-squares applications for monitoring statistical multiple-regression analyses. Concepts related to the influence matrix provide diagnostics on the influence of individual data on the analysis - the analysis change that would occur by leaving one observation out, and the effective information content (degrees of freedom for signal) in any sub-set of the analysed data. In this paper, the corresponding concepts have been derived in the context of linear statistical data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. An approximate method to compute the diagonal elements of the influence matrix (the self-sensitivities) has been developed for a large-dimension variational data assimilation system (the four-dimensional variational system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). Results show that, in the boreal spring 2003 operational system, 15% of the global influence is due to the assimilated observations in any one analysis, and the complementary 85% is the influence of the prior (background) information, a short-range forecast containing information from earlier assimilated observations. About 25% of the observational information is currently provided by surface-based observing systems, and 75% by satellite systems. Low-influence data points usually occur in data-rich areas, while high-influence data points are in data-sparse areas or in dynamically active regions. Background-error correlations also play an important role: high correlation diminishes the observation influence and amplifies the importance of the surrounding real and pseudo observations (prior information in observation space). Incorrect specifications of background and observation-error covariance matrices can be identified, interpreted and better understood by the use of influence-matrix diagnostics for the variety of observation types and observed variables used in the data assimilation system. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society