O processo decisório legislativo na criação e reforma do Bacen e do CMN em 1964 e 1994 : incerteza, cooperação e resultados legislativos

Analisa o processo decisório legislativo nos casos da criação e reforma do Bacen e do CMN em 1964 e 1994, ocorridos no âmbito de planos exitosos de combate à inflação (PAEG e Plano Real, respectivamente). A definição de um formato institucional para a autoridade monetária é uma escolha dos legisladores em termos da produção da política pública de responsabilidade daqueles órgãos, que em ambos os casos foi importante na busca da estabilidade de preços. A partir da Teoria Política Formal utilizaram-se dados primários e fontes secundárias para construir modelo e hipóteses que consideraram as dimensões de interesse geral (combate à inflação) e de políticas particularistas/distributivistas (crédito rural e representação privada no CMN). Concluiu-se que em ambos os processos a iniciativa do Poder Executivo foi fundamental para o resultado final, contudo, em ambas as situações, mesmo durante o ano de 1964 (período militar), o Legislativo teve papel relevante na definição do formato final de ambas as decisões. No primeiro caso houve uma barganha entre os Poderes Executivo e Legislativo para aprovação da proposta, que envolveu concessões no sentido de garantir representação privada no CMN e a institucionalização do crédito rural. No segundo caso o uso da Medida Provisória caracterizou uma forma diferente de coordenação entre os poderes, em que a MP atuou para diminuir a incerteza em relação aos resultados do plano e às alterações na composição do CMN e assim permitir a aprovação da matéria. Os resultados da tese, favorecidos pela comparação de dois períodos diversos do sistema político brasileiro, colaboram com a análise das relações Executivo-Legislativo, sobretudo ao valorizar os instrumentos legislativos do Presidente da República e a forma de equacionamento da incerteza nos processos decisórios. Ainda, permite-se um maior conhecimento da realidade legislativa durante o ano de 1964, quando, ao menos para a Reforma Bancária, não se pode falar de solapamento dos poderes e prerrogativas do Congresso Nacional pelo governo militar.

Facilitated advocacy: supporting farmers to have a voice in policy making and the development of service provision

Listening to people, especially those who are poor, and involving them in policy making and decisions about service delivery processes are logical steps in building better services and improving policies aimed at poverty alleviation. This case describes a facilitated advocacy that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people who farm and fish, to contribute recommendations for changes in services and policies that impact on their lives. The national Government of India’s Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, both in the capital Delhi, have been linking with farmers and fishers and state government officials in the eastern states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, in partnership with the STREAM Initiative of the intergovernmental Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia Pacific and with the support of the UK Government Department for International Development, Natural resources Systems Program supporting farmers to have a voice(13 p.)

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.