Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis.

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

Henipaviruses - unanswered questions of lethal zoonoses.

The highly lethal Hendra and Nipah viruses have been described for little more than a decade, yet within that time have been aetiologically associated with major livestock and human health impacts, albeit on a limited scale. Do these emerging pathogens pose a broader threat, or are they inconsequential 'viral chatter'. Given their lethality, and the evident multi-generational human-to-human transmission associated with Nipah virus in Bangladesh, it seems prudent to apply the precautionary principle. While much is known of their clinical, pathogenic and epidemiologic features in livestock species and humans, a number of fundamental questions regarding the relationship between the viruses, their natural fruit-bat host and the environment remain unanswered. In this paper, we pose and probe these questions in context, and offer perspectives based primarily on our experience with Hendra virus in Australia, augmented with Nipah virus parallels.