Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

A improvisação como ferramenta pedagógica no ensino vocacional de piano

Resumo I - A frequência do Estágio do Ensino Especializado proporcionou uma oportunidade de observar o ensino de piano numa das escolas mais importantes do ensino da música em Portugal, acompanhando alunos do Curso Básico e do Curso Secundário, que frequentaram a Escola de Música do Conservatório Nacional no regime integrado. O processo de observação de aulas que decorreu deste estágio possibilitou-nos assistir às aulas de piano de uma professora experiente, permitindo a observação de metodologias consolidadas e assistir de perto à forma como estas são postas em prática. Por outro lado, através da leccionação de aulas observadas, foi dada a oportunidade de testar e reflectir sobre o próprio desempenho docente, procurando estratégias e ferramentas pedagógicas que possam vir a acrescentar qualidade à prática pedagógica. O ensino especializado da música em Portugal tem experimentado mudanças importantes, o que leva a que haja uma adaptação das escolas às mudanças, continuando a leccionar um ensino de qualidade, que se quer cada vez mais eficaz, inovador, e com professores cada vez melhor fundamentados e preparados.

Real-Time Simulation of Real-Time Pricing Demand Response to Meet Wind Variations

Recent changes of paradigm in power systems opened the opportunity to the active participation of new players. The small and medium players gain new opportunities while participating in demand response programs. This paper explores the optimal resources scheduling in two distinct levels. First, the network operator facing large wind power variations makes use of real time pricing to induce consumers to meet wind power variations. Then, at the consumer level, each load is managed according to the consumer preferences. The two-level resources schedule has been implemented in a real-time simulation platform, which uses hardware for consumer’ loads control. The illustrative example includes a situation of large lack of wind power and focuses on a consumer with 18 loads.

Smart Plastic Antibody Material for Hemoglobin Tailored by Silica Surface Imprinting and with Charged Binding Sites: Its use as Ionophore in Potentiometric Transduction

JORNADAS DE ELECTROQUÍMICA E INOVAÇÃO 2013

Practice variations in the production of health

This study investigates three questions related to medical practice variation. First, it tests whether average length of stay across Portuguese National Health Service hospitals varies when controlling for differences in patients’ characteristics. Second, it looks at hospital-level characteristics in order to find out whether these are able to explain differences in average length of stay across hospitals. Finally, it proposes a best practice average length of stay for each of the six episodes of care analyzed. To perform the analysis, administrative data from the Diagnosis-Related groups’ data set for the year of 2012 was used. A replication of a hierarchical two-stage model with hospital fixed effects was carried out. The results show that after taking patients’ characteristics into account, variation in average length of stay across hospitals exists. This variation cannot be explained by hospital-level characteristics.

Transforming scientific information with everyday thinking: A social representations perspective

Cette thèse examine la circulation et l'intégration des informations scientifiques dans la pensée quotidienne d'après la théorie des représentations sociales (TRS). En tant qu'alternative aux approches traditionnelles de la communication de la science, les transformations survenant entre le discours scientifique et le discours de sens commun sont considérées comme adaptatives. Deux études sur la circulation des informations dans les media (études 1 et 2) montrent des variations dans les thèmes de discours exposés aux profanes, et parmi les discours de ceux-ci, en fonction de différentes sources. Ensuite, le processus d'ancrage dans le positionnement préalable envers la science est étudié, pour l'explication qu'il fournit de la réception et de la transmission d'informations scientifiques dans le sens commun. Les effets d'ancrage dans les attitudes et croyances préexistants sont reportés dans différents contextes de circulation des informations scientifiques (études 3 à 7), incluant des études de type corrélationnel, experimental et de terrain. Globalement, cette thèse procure des arguments en faveur de la pertinence de la TRS pour la recherche sur la communication de la science, et suggère des développements théoriques et méthodologiques pour ces deux domaines de recherche. Drawing on the social representations theory (SRT), this thesis examines the circulation and integration of scientific information into everyday thinking. As an alternative to the traditional approaches of science communication, it considers transformations between scientific and common-sense discourses as adaptive. Two studies, focused on the spreading of information into the media (Studies 1 and 2), show variations in the themes of discourses introduced to laypersons and in the themes among laypersons' discourses, according to different sources. Anchoring in prior positioning toward science is then studied for the explanation it provides on the reception and transmission of scientific information into common sense. Anchoring effects in prior attitudes and beliefs are reported in different contexts of circulation of scientific information (Studies 3 to 7) by using results from correlational, field, and experimental studies. Overall, this thesis provides arguments for the relevance of SRT in science communication research and suggests theoretical and methodological developments for both domains of research.

Clinical and genetic investigation of a large Tunisian family with complete achromatopsia: identification of a new nonsense mutation in GNAT2 gene.

Complete achromatopsia is a rare autosomal recessive disease associated with CNGA3, CNGB3, GNAT2 and PDE6C mutations. This retinal disorder is characterized by complete loss of color discrimination due to the absence or alteration of the cones function. The purpose of the present study was the clinical and the genetic characterization of achromatopsia in a large consanguineous Tunisian family. Ophthalmic evaluation included a full clinical examination, color vision testing and electroretinography. Linkage analysis using microsatellite markers flanking CNGA3, CNGB3, GNAT2 and PDE6C genes was performed. Mutations were screened by direct sequencing. A total of 12 individuals were diagnosed with congenital complete achromatopsia. They are members of six nuclear consanguineous families belonging to the same large consanguineous family. Linkage analysis revealed linkage to GNAT2. Mutational screening of GNAT2 revealed three intronic variations c.119-69G>C, c.161+66A>T and c.875-31G>C that co-segregated with a novel mutation p.R313X. An identical GNAT2 haplotype segregating with this mutation was identified, indicating a founder mutation. All patients were homozygous for the p.R313X mutation. This is the first report of the clinical and genetic investigation of complete achromatopsia in North Africa and the largest family with recessive achromatopsia involving GNAT2; thus, providing a unique opportunity for genotype-phenotype correlation for this extremely rare condition.

Mutation screening of the glutamate cysteine ligase modifier (GCLM) gene in patients with schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Experimental evidences show that glutathione and its rate-limiting synthesizing enzyme, the glutamate-cysteine ligase (GCL), are involved in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia. Furthermore, genetic association has been previously reported between two single nucleotide polymorphisms lying in noncoding regions of glutamate cysteine ligase modifier (GCLM) gene, which specifies for the modifier subunit of GCL and schizophrenia. OBJECTIVE: We wanted to investigate the presence of GCLM true functional mutations, likely in linkage disequilibrium with the previously identified single nucleotide polymorphism alleles, in the same set of cases that allowed the detection of the original association signal. METHODS: We screened all the coding regions of GCLM and their intronic flanking vicinities in 353 patients with schizophrenia by direct DNA sequencing. RESULTS: Ten sequence variations were identified, five of which were not previously described. None of these DNA changes was within the GCLM coding sequence and in-silico analysis failed to indicate functional impairment induced by these variations. Furthermore, screening of normal controls and downstream statistical analyses revealed no significant relationship of any of these DNA variants with schizophrenia. CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that functional mutations in the GCLM gene could play a major role in genetic predisposition to schizophrenia and further studies will be required to assess its etiological function in the disease.

Regional variations of deformation mechanisms in the Lorrain Quartzite near Whitefish Falls, Ontario, Canada /

The quartzite microfabric found in the Lorrain Formation was studied across the La Cloche syncline, along a regional north-south transect along highway 6, near Whitefish Falls, Ontario. The complete stratigraphic sequence across the syncline is preserved, and is present on each fold limb. The lithostratigraphic units with the smallest grains size and lowest mica content are located close to the core of the fold, while coarser grained mica and feldspar rich units are situated at the northern and southern most extent of the transect. Deformation mechanisms vary with lithology and with position across the fold. Pressure solution appears to be the dominant deformation mechanism in the feldspathic, micaceous and ferruginous units. In the finer grained, mica poor white medium grained and cherty sandstone units, grain boundary migration (GBM) characteristics show dominance over those of pressure solution and show high amounts of fracturing which cut migrated boundaries and therefore post date GBM. All samples across the fold display a preferred orientation of quartz c-axes. The senses of asymmetry of fabrics are found to be similar across the syncline, with the exception of the ferruginous sandstone unit. Formation of these similar fabrics synmietries can not be the result of strain related to first order folding. The mica content appears to be related to the percentage of quartz lost due to pressure solution as a result of strain; the more mica present, the less quartz was lost. Calculations based on the shape of initial grains suggest that conservatively 30% of the quartz volume has been dissolved out of the Lorrain quartzite, and potentially migrated hundreds of meters to other members of the Huronian Supergroup as there was no meso or macroscopic evidence observed in outcrop.

Developmental variations in the peripheral erythrocytic system of the rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

The peripheral circulating erythrocytic system of the rainbow trout, l3 almo gairdner , was examined in vitro in relation differences in the morphology and multiple hemoglobin system organization of adult and juvenile red cells. Cells were separated by velocity sedimentation under unit gravity, a procedure requiring red cell exposure to an incubation medium for periods of at least three hours. Therefore , this must provide an environment in which red cells remain in a condition approximaing normalcy. Previous studies having demonstrated commonly employed media to be ineffective in this regard , a medium was developed through modification of Cortl and saline. One of the principal additions to this me dium , norepinephrine, altered cell regulation of intracellular calcium, magnesium and chloride concentrations. Catecholamine involvement was also suggeste d in the synthes is of hemoglobin . The procedure was found to separtate cells primarily by density and, to a lesser extent, by shape. Characterization of red cells revealed two subpopulations to exist . The first comprised the bulk of the cell population, and were of greater l ength, width, volume and major:minor axis ratio than the smaller population; these were adult cells. The later, juvenile cells were of smaller overall size and were more spherical in shape . Juvenile cells also possessed fewer electrophore tpically distinguishable isomorphs than did adults with only eight of eleven hemoglobin component s typically found With maturation,hemoglobin complement with the development of three more bands. The total complement of the adult cell contained 7 cathodal bands and four anodal hemoglobin isomorphs. Bands acquired with maturation comprised the smallest percentage of the cells hemoglobin. each averaging less than one-percent of the total. Whether these additional bands are derived through degradation and reaggregation of existing components or are the product of pe gQy2 synthesis is not yet known.

Thermoacclimatory variations in the activities of enzymes implicated in ion transport in the rainbow trout, salmo gairdneri

Two groups of rainbow trout were acclimated to 20 , 100 , and 18 o C. Plasma sodium, potassium, and chloride levels were determined for both. One group was employed in the estimation of branchial and renal (Na+-K+)-stimulated, (HC0 3-)-stimulated, and CMg++)-dependent ATPase activities, while the other was used in the measurement of carbonic anhydrase activity in the blood, gill and kidney. Assays were conducted using two incubation temperature schemes. One provided for incubation of all preparations at a common temperature of 2S oC, a value equivalent to the upper incipient lethal level for this species. In the other procedure the preparations were incubated at the appropriate acclimation temperature of the sampled fish. Trout were able to maintain plasma sodium and chloride levels essentially constant over the temperature range employed. The different incubation temperature protocols produced different levels of activity, and, in some cases, contrary trends with respect to acclimation temperature. This information was discussed in relation to previous work on gill and kidney. The standing-gradient flow hypothesis was discussed with reference to the structure of the chloride cell, known thermallyinduced changes in ion uptake, and the enzyme activities obtained in this study. Modifications of the model of gill lon uptake suggested by Maetz (1971) were proposed; high and low temperature models resulting. In short, ion transport at the gill at low temperatures appears to involve sodium and chloride 2 uptake by heteroionic exchange mechanisms working in association w.lth ca.rbonlc anhydrase. G.l ll ( Na + -K + ) -ATPase and erythrocyte carbonic anhydrase seem to provide the supplemental uptake required at higher temperatures. It appears that the kidney is prominent in ion transport at low temperatures while the gill is more important at high temperatures. 3 Linear regression analyses involving weight, plasma ion levels, and enzyme activities indicated several trends, the most significant being the interrelationship observed between plasma sodium and chloride. This, and other data obtained in the study was considered in light of the theory that a link exists between plasma sodium and chloride regulatory mechanisms.

Thermoaclimatory variations in the microenvironment of hemoglobin in the rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri and the carp, Cyprinus carpio

Several inorganic substances (e.g., C£ , Mg , Ca , H ) are potent negative modulators of hemoglobin-oxygen affinity. To evaluate the possibility that potentially adaptive changes in the red cell ionic environment of hemoglobin may take place during acclimation of fishes to increased environmental temperature, hematological status (hemoglobin, hematocrit, red cell numbers, mean erythrocytic volume and hemoglobin content), plasma + + 2+ 2+ and packed red cell electrolyte levels (Na , K , Ca , Mg , C£ ) were evaluated in summer and winter populations of the stenothermal rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, following acclimation to 2°, 10°, 18°C, and in a spring population of eurythermal carp, Cyprinus carpio, held at 2°, 16° and 30°C. From these data cell ion concentrations and ion:hemoglobin ratios were estimated. In view of the role of red cell carbonic anhydrase in the reductions of blood C02 tensions and the recruitment of Na and C£~ lost by fishes, a preliminary investigation of thermoacclimatory changes in the activity of this system in rainbow trout erythrocytes was conducted. Few changes in hematological status were encountered following acclimation. There was, however, some evidence of weight-specific differential hematological response in carp. This lead to markedly greater increases in hemoglobin, hematocrit and red cell numbers in smaller rather than in larger specimens at higher temperatures; variations which were 2+ well correlated with changes in plasma Ca . Plasma composition in summer trout was not altered by acclimation. In winter trout plasma Na and K increased at higher temperatures. Carp were characterized by increases in plasma calcium, and reductions in sodium and magnesium under these conditions. Several significant seasonal differences in plasma ion levels were observed in the trout. (n) In trout, only erythrocytic K and K :Hb were altered by acclimation, rising at higher temperatures. In carp Na , Na :Hb, C£~ and C£~:Hb in- 2+ 2+ creased with temperature, while Mg and Mg :Hb declined. Changes in overall ionic composition in carp red cells were consistent with increases in H content. In both species significant reciprocal variations in C£~ 2+ - + and Mg were found. In mammalian systems increases in C£ and H reduce hemoglobin-oxygen affinity by interaction with hemoglobin. Reduction in 2+ 2+ Mg maximizes organophosphate modulator availability by decreasing ATP»Mg complex formation. Thus, the changes observed may be of adaptive value in reducing hemoglobin-oxygen affinity, and facilitating oxygen release to cells at higher temperatures. Trout appear to maintain a high chloridelow magnesium state over the entire thermal tolerance zone. Carp, however, achieved this state only at higher temperatures. In both species mean erythrocytic volume was decreased at higher temperatures and this may facilitate branchial oxygen loading. Since mean erythrocytic volume was inversely related to red cell ion content, it is hypothesized that reductions in cell volume are achieved by export of some unidentified solute or solutes. Variations in the carbonic anhydrase activity that could be attributed to the thermoacclimatory process were quite modest. On the other hand, assays performed at the temperature of acclimation showed a large temperature effect where under in vivo conditions of temperature fish acclimated to higher temperatures might be expected to have higher activities. Furthermore, since hematocrit increased with temperature in these fish, while carbonic anhydrase is present only in the erythrocyte, the whole blood levels of this enzyme are expected to increase and further augment the temperature effect. This, in turn, could aid in the reduction of C02 (111) tension and increase the production of H and HC0~~ used in the active uptake of Na and C£ at higher temperatures.

Improving Short DNA Sequence Alignment with Parallel Computing

Variations in different types of genomes have been found to be responsible for a large degree of physical diversity such as appearance and susceptibility to disease. Identification of genomic variations is difficult and can be facilitated through computational analysis of DNA sequences. Newly available technologies are able to sequence billions of DNA base pairs relatively quickly. These sequences can be used to identify variations within their specific genome but must be mapped to a reference sequence first. In order to align these sequences to a reference sequence, we require mapping algorithms that make use of approximate string matching and string indexing methods. To date, few mapping algorithms have been tailored to handle the massive amounts of output generated by newly available sequencing technologies. In otrder to handle this large amount of data, we modified the popular mapping software BWA to run in parallel using OpenMPI. Parallel BWA matches the efficiency of multithreaded BWA functions while providing efficient parallelism for BWA functions that do not currently support multithreading. Parallel BWA shows significant wall time speedup in comparison to multithreaded BWA on high-performance computing clusters, and will thus facilitate the analysis of genome sequencing data.

Variations on charisma : Shakespeare's saintly, villain, and lustful leaders

Variations on Charisma: Shakespeare’s Saintly, Villain, and Lustful Leaders est une étude des mécanismes du leadership charismatique dans Henry V, Richard III et Antoine et Cléopâtre de William Shakespeare, respectivement. Le mémoire explore certains outils, tels que la rhétorique, l'ironie et resignification, qui permettent aux dirigeants de gagner l'amour des disciples, la reconnaissance, et même la crainte. Cette thèse ne traitera pas avec l'essence du charisme en tant que telle, mais plutôt avec les techniques de leadership charismatique. Dans le premier chapitre, j'ai étudié le caractère du roi Harry dans trois différents aspects: en tant que chef militaire, en tant que chef spirituel, et comme un leader politique. Parmi les techniques de leadership charismatique qui déploie Henry V de gagner l'amour de ses disciples et de dévouement est rhétorique. La capacité de livrer le discours à droite dans la conjoncture à droite et à convaincre les adeptes, même dans les moments de difficultés formes sa force clé comme une figure centrale dans la pièce. Le deuxième chapitre traite du leadership charismatique Richard III, qui est évaluée sur le plan éthique parce qu'elle est acquise grâce à assassiner. J'ai essayé d'examiner les relations possibles qui pourraient exister entre le charisme et l'agence moral. Dans ce chapitre, j'ai soulevé des questions sur la mesure dans laquelle le charisme est d'ordre éthique et comment un chef de file, qui usurpes alimentation via assassiner, est charismatique. Une technique qui renforce le leadership charismatique de Richard est l'ironie. Richard III déploie l'ironie de gagner la complicité du public. Dans le troisième chapitre, l'accent est mis sur le caractère de Cléopâtre. La question soulevée dans le chapitre concerne la relation entre le charisme et la lutte pour une identité féminine orientale. politique sexuelle de Cléopâtre est également au cœur de mon étude, car il est revu et de nouveaux sens de Shakespeare d'une manière qui souligne les qualités charismatiques de Cléopâtre. Mots clés: le charisme, la rhétorique, l'agence morale, resignification, William Shakespeare

Les variations géographiques de la mortalité par cancer au Québec en relation avec l’incidence et la létalité, 2000-2004

Le cancer occupe le premier rang parmi les causes de décès au Québec. Les taux de mortalité diffèrent cependant à travers les régions du Québec. En considérant les territoires des Centres de santé et de services sociaux (CSSS), ce mémoire propose dans un premier temps d’étudier la distribution des taux de mortalité pour les principaux sièges de cancer, d’identifier les régions où une différence significative du taux avec le reste du Québec est perceptible et d’approfondir des éléments impliqués dans la mortalité, soit l’incidence et la létalité. D’autre part, dans le but d’expliquer les variations des taux de mortalité, des variables socio-économiques liées aux territoires retenus serviront de variables explicatives au modèle de régression utilisé. Les résultats ont permis de constater que c’est pour le cancer du poumon que les écarts significatifs sont les plus nombreux. Quant au cancer colorectal, un seul territoire présentait un écart significatif. Pour ce qui est du cancer de la prostate et du sein, aucun écart n’est perceptible dans les taux de mortalité. Concernant la partie explicative de la mortalité, dans le cas du cancer du poumon, les taux d’incidence sont fortement corrélés aux taux de mortalité. On ne peut cependant faire le même constat pour les cancers colorectal, du sein et de la prostate. De plus, les variables socio-économiques considérées pour les territoires de CSSS ne permettaient pas d’arriver à un modèle explicatif convaincant. Ces résultats montrent la nécessité d’avoir des données longitudinales permettant de suivre les individus dès le moment où le diagnostic de cancer est établi afin d’être en mesure de mieux mesurer les liens entre l’incidence, la survie, le niveau socio-économique et la mortalité.