A preliminary investigation of the evacuation of the WTC North Tower using computer simulation

This paper concerns a preliminary numerical simulation study of the evacuation of the World Trade Centre North Tower on 11 September 2001 using the buildingEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of survivor accounts appearing in the public domain. While exact geometric details of the building were not available for this study, the building geometry was approximated from descriptions available in the public domain. The study attempts to reproduce the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several ‘what if’ questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived in tact from top to bottom.

On the persistence of computer dreams: an application framework for robust adaptive deployment

The anticipated rewards of adaptive approaches will only be fully realised when autonomic algorithms can take configuration and deployment decisions that match and exceed those of human engineers. Such decisions are typically characterised as being based on a foundation of experience and knowledge. In humans, these underpinnings are themselves founded on the ashes of failure, the exuberance of courage and (sometimes) the outrageousness of fortune. In this paper we describe an application framework that will allow the incorporation of similarly risky, error prone and downright dangerous software artefacts into live systems – without undermining the certainty of correctness at application level. We achieve this by introducing the notion of application dreaming.

The use of computer simulation for aircraft evacuation certification: a report from the VERRES project

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to the evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. The methodology suggested here involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing and full-scale certification trials. The proposed methodology sets out a protocol for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. Along with the suggested protocol, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. Given the sceptical nature of the aviation community regarding any certification methodology change in general, this would involve as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The computer model would be used to reproduce a probability distribution of likely aircraft performance under current certification conditions and in addition, several other more challenging scenarios could be developed. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) would provide better insight into the actual performance capabilities of the aircraft by generating a performance probability distribution or performance envelope rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established, the second step would only involve computer simulation and component testing. This would only be contemplated after sufficient experience and confidence in the use of computer models have been developed. The third step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification would involve the introduction of several scenarios based on for example exit availability instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios into the certification process. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modelling technology to include additional behavioural features common in real accident scenarios.

Computer simulation of VLTA evacuation performance: a report from the VERRES project

This paper reports on research work undertaken for the European Commission funded study GMA2/2000/32039 Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA) Emergency Requirements Research Evacuation Study (VERRES). A particular focus was on evacuation issues with a detailed study of evacuation performance using computer models being undertaken as part of Work Package 2. This paper describes this work and investigates the use of internal stairs during evacuation using computer simulation.

Proposed methodology for the use of computer simulation to enhance aircraft evacuation certification

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. This involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing, and full-scale certification trials. The methodology sets out a framework for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. In addition, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. This involves as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) provides better insight into aircraft evacuation performance capabilities by generating a performance probability distribution rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established the requirement for the full-scale demonstration could be dropped. The second step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification involves the introduction of several scenarios based on, for example, exit availability, instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modeling technology to include additional behavioral features common in real accident scenarios.

A study of user requirements for COTS: computer off the shelf software solutions

[This abstract is based on the authors' abstract.]Three new standards to be applied when adopting commercial computer off-the-shelf (COTS) software solutions are discussed. The first standard is for a COTS software life cycle, the second for a software solution user requirements life cycle, and the third is a checklist to help in completing the requirements. The standards are based on recent major COTS software solution implementations.

Computer modeling of a micro-manufactured one-turn inductor

The results of a finite element computer modelling analysis of a micro-manufactured one-turn magnetic inductor using the software package ANSYS 10.0 are presented. The inductor is designed for a DC-DC converter used in microelectronic devices. It consists of a copper conductor with a rectangular cross-section plated with an insulation layer and a layer of magnetic core. The analysis has focused on the effects of the frequency and the air gaps on the on the inductance values and the Joule losses in the core and conductor. It has been found that an inductor with small multiple air gaps has lower losses than an inductor with a single larger gap

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times

Towards policy-based self-configuration of embedded systems

This paper describes work towards the deployment of flexible self-management into real-time embedded systems. A challenging project which focuses specifically on the development of a dynamic, adaptive automotive middleware is described, and the specific self-management requirements of this project are discussed. These requirements have been identified through the refinement of a wide-ranging set of use cases requiring context-sensitive behaviours. A sample of these use-cases is presented to illustrate the extent of the demands for self-management. The strategy that has been adopted to achieve self-management, based on the use of policies is presented. The embedded and real-time nature of the target system brings the constraints that dynamic adaptation capabilities must not require changes to the run-time code (except during hot update of complete binary modules), adaptation decisions must have low latency, and because the target platforms are resource-constrained the self-management mechanism have low resource requirements (especially in terms of processing and memory). Policy-based computing is thus and ideal candidate for achieving the self-management because the policy itself is loaded at run-time and can be replaced or changed in the future in the same way that a data file is loaded. Policies represent a relatively low complexity and low risk means of achieving self-management, with low run-time costs. Policies can be stored internally in ROM (such as default policies) as well as externally to the system. The architecture of a designed-for-purpose powerful yet lightweight policy library is described. A suitable evaluation platform, supporting the whole life-cycle of feasibility analysis, concept evaluation, development, rigorous testing and behavioural validation has been devised and is described.

Investigating the impact of exit availability on egress time using computer based evacuation simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for a narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different exit configurations are examined. These include the standard certification configuration (one exit from each exit pair) and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The results show that the certification practice of using half the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Investigating the representation of merging behavior at the floor–stair interface in computer simulations of multi-floor building evacuations

In this article, the representation of the merging process at the floor— stair interface is examined within a comprehensive evacuation model and trends found in experimental data are compared with model predictions. The analysis suggests that the representation of floor—stair merging within the comprehensive model appears to be consistent with trends observed within several published experiments of the merging process. In particular: (a) The floor flow rate onto the stairs decreases as the stair population density increases. (b) For a given stair population density, the floor population's flow rate onto the stairs can be maximized by connecting the floor to the landing adjacent to the incoming stair. (c) In situations where the floor is connected adjacent to the incoming stair, the merging process appears to be biased in favor of the floor population. It is further conjectured that when the floor is connected opposite the incoming stair, the merging process between the stair and floor streams is almost in balance for high stair population densities, with a slight bias in favor of the floor stream at low population densities. A key practical finding of this analysis is that the speed at which a floor can be emptied onto a stair can be enhanced simply by connecting the floor to the landing at a location adjacent to the incoming stair rather than opposite the stair. Configuring the stair in this way, while reducing the floor emptying time, results in a corresponding decrease in the descent flow rate of those already on the stairs. While this is expected to have a negligible impact on the overall time to evacuate the building, the evacuation time for those higher up in the building is extended while those on the lower flows is reduced. It is thus suggested that in high-rise buildings, floors should be connected to the landing on the opposite side to the incoming stair. Information of this type will allow engineers to better design stair—floor interfaces to meet specific design objectives.

Computer modelling analysis of the globtop's effects on aluminium wirebond reliability

In power electronics modules, heavy aluminium wires, i.e. wire diameters greater than 100 microns, are bonded to the active semiconductor devices and conductor metallization to form electric circuits of the power electronic module. Due to the high currents that may flow through these wires, a single connection usually contains several wires and thus, a large number of wires are used in a power electronics module. Under normal operation or test condition, a significant amount of stresses and strains induced in the wire and bonding interfaces, resulting in failure over time. In this paper, computer modelling techniques are used to analyse the effect of globtop design on the reliability of aluminium wirebonds under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The results will show the sensitivity of the reliability of the wirebonds to the changes in the geometry and the material properties of the wirebond globtop.

Computer simulation of crack propagation in power electronics module solder joints

A numerical modelling method for the analysis of solder joint damage and crack propagation has been described in this paper. The method is based on the disturbed state concept. Under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions, the level of damage that occurs in solder joints is assumed to be a simple monotonic scalar function of the accumulated equivalent plastic strain. The increase of damage leads to crack initiation and propagation. By tracking the evolution of the damage level in solder joints, crack propagation path and rate can be simulated using Finite Element Analysis method. The discussions are focused on issues in the implementation of the method. The technique of speeding up the simulation and the mesh dependency issues are analysed. As an example of the application of this method, crack propagation in solder joints of power electronics modules under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions has been analyzed and the predicted cracked area size after 3000 loading cycles is consistent with experimental results.

Computer simulation of aluminium wirebonds with globtop in power electronics modules

In this paper, computer modelling techniques are used to analyse the effects of globtops on the reliability of aluminium wirebonds in power electronics modules under cyclic thermal-mechanical loading conditions. The sensitivity of the wirehond reliability to the changes of the geometric and the material property parameters of wirebond globtop are evaluated and the optimal combination of the Young's modulus and the coefficient of thermal expansion have been predicted.

Investigating the use of elevators for high-rise building evacuation through computer simulation

This paper presents a description of a new agent based elevator sub-model developed as part of the buildingEXODUS software intended for both evacuation and circulation applications. A description of each component of the newly developed model is presented, including the elevator kinematics and associated pedestrian behaviour. The elevator model is then used to investigate a series of full building evacuation scenarios based on a hypothetical 50 floor building with four staircases and a population of 7,840 agents. The analysis explores the relative merits of using up to 32 elevators (arranged in four banks) and various egress strategies to evacuate the entire building population. Findings from the investigation suggest that the most efficient evacuation strategy utilises a combination of elevators and stairs to empty the building and clear the upper half of the building in minimum time. Combined stair elevator evacuation times have been shown to be as much as 50% faster than stair only evacuation times.