A Review on the Characterization of Signals and Systems by Power Law Distributions

Power laws, also known as Pareto-like laws or Zipf-like laws, are commonly used to explain a variety of real world distinct phenomena, often described merely by the produced signals. In this paper, we study twelve cases, namely worldwide technological accidents, the annual revenue of America׳s largest private companies, the number of inhabitants in America׳s largest cities, the magnitude of earthquakes with minimum moment magnitude equal to 4, the total burned area in forest fires occurred in Portugal, the net worth of the richer people in America, the frequency of occurrence of words in the novel Ulysses, by James Joyce, the total number of deaths in worldwide terrorist attacks, the number of linking root domains of the top internet domains, the number of linking root domains of the top internet pages, the total number of human victims of tornadoes occurred in the U.S., and the number of inhabitants in the 60 most populated countries. The results demonstrate the emergence of statistical characteristics, very close to a power law behavior. Furthermore, the parametric characterization reveals complex relationships present at higher level of description.

Effects of computer-mediated communication and face-to-face communication on the quantity and quality of discourse produced by English as a second language students /

The effects oftwo types of small-group communication, synchronous computer-mediated and face-to-face, on the quantity and quality of verbal output were con^ared. Quantity was deiSned as the number of turns taken per minute, the number of Analysis-of-Speech units (AS-units) produced per minute, and the number ofwords produced per minute. Quality was defined as the number of words produced per AS-unit. In addition, the interaction of gender and type of communication was explored for any differences that existed in the output produced. Questionnaires were also given to participants to determine attitudes toward computer-mediated and face-to-face communication. Thirty intermediate-level students fi-om the Intensive English Language Program (lELP) at Brock University participated in the study, including 15 females and 15 males. Nonparametric tests, including the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test, Mann-Whitney U test, and Friedman test were used to test for significance at the p < .05 level. No significant differences were found in the effects of computer-mediated and face-to-face communication on the output produced during follow-up speaking sessions. However, the quantity and quality of interaction was significantly higher during face-to-face sessions than computer-mediated sessions. No significant differences were found in the output produced by males and females in these 2 conditions. While participants felt that the use of computer-mediated communication may aid in the development of certain language skills, they generally preferred face-to-face communication. These results differed fi-om previous studies that found a greater quantity and quality of output in addition to a greater equality of interaction produced during computer-mediated sessions in comparison to face-to-face sessions (Kern, 1995; Warschauer, 1996).

Set-up and evaluation of a mid-infrared reflectometer and investigation of the optical properties of doped tin telluride

A system comprised of a Bomem interferometer and a LT3-110 Heli-Tran cryostat was set up to measure the reflectance of materials in the mid-infrared spectral region. Several tests were conducted to ensure the consistency and reliability of the system. Silicon and Chromium, two materials with well known optical properties were measured to test the accuracy of the system, and the results were found to be in good agreement with the literature. Reflectance measurements on pure SnTe and several Pb and Mn-doped alloys were carried out. These materials were chosen because they exhibit a strong plasma edge in the mid infrared region. The optical conductivity and several related optical parameters were calculated from the measured reflectance. Very low temperature measurements were carried out in the far-infrared on Sn9SMn2Te, and the results are indicative of a spin glass phase at 0.8 K. Resistivity measurements were made at room temperature. The resistivity values were found, as expected, to decrease with increasing carrier concentration and to increase with increasing manganese concentration.

The Welland Canals Foundation, Honourable William Hamilton Merritt and the St. Catharines Historical Society and Museum, 1971-1990, n.d.

‘The Father of Canadian Transportation’ is a term commonly associated with William Hamilton Merritt. Although he is most known for being one of the driving forces behind the building of the first Welland Canal, he was many things throughout his life; a soldier, merchant, promoter, entrepreneur and politician to name a few. Born on July 3, 1793 at Bedford, Westchester County, N.Y. to Thomas Merritt and Mary Hamilton, Merritt’s family relocated to Canada shortly after in 1796. The move came after Merritt’s father petitioned John Graves Simcoe for land in Upper Canada after serving under him in the Queen’s Rangers during the American Revolution. The family quickly settled into their life at Twelve Mile Creek in St. Catharines. Merritt’s father became sheriff of Lincoln County in 1803 while Merritt began his education in mathematics and surveying. After some brief travel and further education Merritt returned to Lincoln County, in 1809 to help farm his father’s land and open a general store. While a farmer and merchant, Merritt turned his attention to military endeavours. A short time after being commissioned as a Lieutenant in the Lincoln militia, the War of 1812 broke out. Fulfilling his duty, Merritt fought in the Battle of Queenston Heights in October of 1812, and numerous small battles until the Battle of Lundy’s Lane in July 1814. It was here that Merritt was captured and held in Cheshire, Massachusetts until the war ended. Arriving back in the St. Catharines area upon his release, Merritt returned to being a merchant, as well as becoming a surveyor and mill owner. Some historians hypothesize that the need to draw water to his mill was how the idea of the Welland Canals was born. Beginning with a plan to connect the Welland River with the Twelve mile creek quickly developed into a connection between the Lakes Erie and Ontario. Its main purpose was to improve the St. Lawrence transportation system and provide a convenient way to transport goods without having to go through the Niagara Falls portage. The plan was set in motion in 1818, but most living in Queenston and Niagara were not happy with it as it would drive business away from them. Along with the opposition came financial and political restraints. Despite these factors Merritt pushed on and the Welland Canal Company was chartered by the Upper Canadian Assembly on January 19, 1824. The first sod was turned on November 30, 1824 almost a year after the initial chartering. Many difficulties arose during the building of the canal including financial, physical, and geographic restrictions. Despite the difficulties two schooners passed through the canal on November 30, 1829. Throughout the next four years continual work was done on the canal as it expended and was modified to better accommodate large ships. After his canal was underway Merritt took a more active role in the political arena, where he served in various positions throughout Upper Canada. In 1851, Merritt withdrew from the Executive Council for numerous reasons, one of which being that pubic interest had diverted from the canals to railways. Merritt tried his hand at other public works outside transportation and trade. He looked into building a lunatic asylum, worked on behalf of War of 1812 veterans, aided in building Brock’s monument, established schools, aided refugee slaves from the U.S. and tried to establish a National Archives among many other feats. He was described by some as having “policy too liberal – conceptions too vast – views too comprehensive to be comprehensible by all”, but he still made a great difference in the society in which he lived. After his great contributions, Merritt died aboard a ship in the Cornwall canal on July 5, 1862. Dictionary of Canadian Biography Online http://www.biographi.ca/EN/ShowBio.asp?BioId=38719 retrieved October 2006 Today numerous groups carry on the legacy of Merritt and the canals both in the past and present. One such group is the Welland Canals Foundation. They describe themselves as: “. . . a volunteer organization which strives to promote the importance of the present and past Welland Canals, and to preserve their history and heritage. The Foundation began in 1980 and carries on events like William Hamilton Merritt Day. The group has strongly supported the Welland Canals Parkway initiative and numerous other activities”. The Welland Canals Foundation does not work alone. They have help from other local groups such as the St. Catharines Historical Society. The Society’s main objective is to increase knowledge and appreciation of the historical aspects of St. Catharines and vicinity, such as the Welland Canals. http://www.niagara.com/~dmdorey/hssc/dec2000.html - retrieved Oct. 2006 http://www.niagara.com/~dmdorey/hssc/feb2000.html - retrieved Oct. 2006

[British Parliamentary papers], Session 24 November, 1812 - 22 July, 1813. Vol. XIV, Correspondence and treaties with foreign powers.

Most of this volume consists of correspondence between high ranking U.S. and British statesmen. E.g., James Madison, James Monroe, The Marquess Wellesley (brother of Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington). The discussion centers around the War of 1812. Also includes facsimilies of treaties signed between Great Britain and Sweden, Russia and Sicily.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Factor models, VARMA processes and parameter instability with applications in macroeconomics

Avec les avancements de la technologie de l'information, les données temporelles économiques et financières sont de plus en plus disponibles. Par contre, si les techniques standard de l'analyse des séries temporelles sont utilisées, une grande quantité d'information est accompagnée du problème de dimensionnalité. Puisque la majorité des séries d'intérêt sont hautement corrélées, leur dimension peut être réduite en utilisant l'analyse factorielle. Cette technique est de plus en plus populaire en sciences économiques depuis les années 90. Étant donnée la disponibilité des données et des avancements computationnels, plusieurs nouvelles questions se posent. Quels sont les effets et la transmission des chocs structurels dans un environnement riche en données? Est-ce que l'information contenue dans un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques peut aider à mieux identifier les chocs de politique monétaire, à l'égard des problèmes rencontrés dans les applications utilisant des modèles standards? Peut-on identifier les chocs financiers et mesurer leurs effets sur l'économie réelle? Peut-on améliorer la méthode factorielle existante et y incorporer une autre technique de réduction de dimension comme l'analyse VARMA? Est-ce que cela produit de meilleures prévisions des grands agrégats macroéconomiques et aide au niveau de l'analyse par fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles? Finalement, est-ce qu'on peut appliquer l'analyse factorielle au niveau des paramètres aléatoires? Par exemple, est-ce qu'il existe seulement un petit nombre de sources de l'instabilité temporelle des coefficients dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques? Ma thèse, en utilisant l'analyse factorielle structurelle et la modélisation VARMA, répond à ces questions à travers cinq articles. Les deux premiers chapitres étudient les effets des chocs monétaire et financier dans un environnement riche en données. Le troisième article propose une nouvelle méthode en combinant les modèles à facteurs et VARMA. Cette approche est appliquée dans le quatrième article pour mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada. La contribution du dernier chapitre est d'imposer la structure à facteurs sur les paramètres variant dans le temps et de montrer qu'il existe un petit nombre de sources de cette instabilité. Le premier article analyse la transmission de la politique monétaire au Canada en utilisant le modèle vectoriel autorégressif augmenté par facteurs (FAVAR). Les études antérieures basées sur les modèles VAR ont trouvé plusieurs anomalies empiriques suite à un choc de la politique monétaire. Nous estimons le modèle FAVAR en utilisant un grand nombre de séries macroéconomiques mensuelles et trimestrielles. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans les facteurs est importante pour bien identifier la transmission de la politique monétaire et elle aide à corriger les anomalies empiriques standards. Finalement, le cadre d'analyse FAVAR permet d'obtenir les fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles pour tous les indicateurs dans l'ensemble de données, produisant ainsi l'analyse la plus complète à ce jour des effets de la politique monétaire au Canada. Motivée par la dernière crise économique, la recherche sur le rôle du secteur financier a repris de l'importance. Dans le deuxième article nous examinons les effets et la propagation des chocs de crédit sur l'économie réelle en utilisant un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques et financiers dans le cadre d'un modèle à facteurs structurel. Nous trouvons qu'un choc de crédit augmente immédiatement les diffusions de crédit (credit spreads), diminue la valeur des bons de Trésor et cause une récession. Ces chocs ont un effet important sur des mesures d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et financiers. Contrairement aux autres études, notre procédure d'identification du choc structurel ne requiert pas de restrictions temporelles entre facteurs financiers et macroéconomiques. De plus, elle donne une interprétation des facteurs sans restreindre l'estimation de ceux-ci. Dans le troisième article nous étudions la relation entre les représentations VARMA et factorielle des processus vectoriels stochastiques, et proposons une nouvelle classe de modèles VARMA augmentés par facteurs (FAVARMA). Notre point de départ est de constater qu'en général les séries multivariées et facteurs associés ne peuvent simultanément suivre un processus VAR d'ordre fini. Nous montrons que le processus dynamique des facteurs, extraits comme combinaison linéaire des variables observées, est en général un VARMA et non pas un VAR comme c'est supposé ailleurs dans la littérature. Deuxièmement, nous montrons que même si les facteurs suivent un VAR d'ordre fini, cela implique une représentation VARMA pour les séries observées. Alors, nous proposons le cadre d'analyse FAVARMA combinant ces deux méthodes de réduction du nombre de paramètres. Le modèle est appliqué dans deux exercices de prévision en utilisant des données américaines et canadiennes de Boivin, Giannoni et Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectivement. Les résultats montrent que la partie VARMA aide à mieux prévoir les importants agrégats macroéconomiques relativement aux modèles standards. Finalement, nous estimons les effets de choc monétaire en utilisant les données et le schéma d'identification de Bernanke, Boivin et Eliasz (2005). Notre modèle FAVARMA(2,1) avec six facteurs donne les résultats cohérents et précis des effets et de la transmission monétaire aux États-Unis. Contrairement au modèle FAVAR employé dans l'étude ultérieure où 510 coefficients VAR devaient être estimés, nous produisons les résultats semblables avec seulement 84 paramètres du processus dynamique des facteurs. L'objectif du quatrième article est d'identifier et mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada dans un environnement riche en données et en utilisant le modèle FAVARMA structurel. Dans le cadre théorique de l'accélérateur financier développé par Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist (1999), nous approximons la prime de financement extérieur par les credit spreads. D'un côté, nous trouvons qu'une augmentation non-anticipée de la prime de financement extérieur aux États-Unis génère une récession significative et persistante au Canada, accompagnée d'une hausse immédiate des credit spreads et taux d'intérêt canadiens. La composante commune semble capturer les dimensions importantes des fluctuations cycliques de l'économie canadienne. L'analyse par décomposition de la variance révèle que ce choc de crédit a un effet important sur différents secteurs d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et credit spreads. De l'autre côté, une hausse inattendue de la prime canadienne de financement extérieur ne cause pas d'effet significatif au Canada. Nous montrons que les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada sont essentiellement causés par les conditions globales, approximées ici par le marché américain. Finalement, étant donnée la procédure d'identification des chocs structurels, nous trouvons des facteurs interprétables économiquement. Le comportement des agents et de l'environnement économiques peut varier à travers le temps (ex. changements de stratégies de la politique monétaire, volatilité de chocs) induisant de l'instabilité des paramètres dans les modèles en forme réduite. Les modèles à paramètres variant dans le temps (TVP) standards supposent traditionnellement les processus stochastiques indépendants pour tous les TVPs. Dans cet article nous montrons que le nombre de sources de variabilité temporelle des coefficients est probablement très petit, et nous produisons la première évidence empirique connue dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques. L'approche Factor-TVP, proposée dans Stevanovic (2010), est appliquée dans le cadre d'un modèle VAR standard avec coefficients aléatoires (TVP-VAR). Nous trouvons qu'un seul facteur explique la majorité de la variabilité des coefficients VAR, tandis que les paramètres de la volatilité des chocs varient d'une façon indépendante. Le facteur commun est positivement corrélé avec le taux de chômage. La même analyse est faite avec les données incluant la récente crise financière. La procédure suggère maintenant deux facteurs et le comportement des coefficients présente un changement important depuis 2007. Finalement, la méthode est appliquée à un modèle TVP-FAVAR. Nous trouvons que seulement 5 facteurs dynamiques gouvernent l'instabilité temporelle dans presque 700 coefficients.

Variations inter- et intra-spécifiques de la phytoextraction des éléments traces As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb et Zn chez trois cultivars de saule

La phytoextraction représente une solution environnementale prometteuse face au problème de contamination des sols en éléments traces (É.T). La présente étude s’intéresse aux différences intra et interspécifiques (S. purpurea, S. dasyclados, S. miyabeana) de trois cultivars de saule lorsqu’ils sont utilisés pour la phytoextration de six É.T. (As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb et Zn). Les objectifs sont (i) décrire les variations intrapécifiques du cultivar FISH CREEK (S. purpurea) lorsqu’il est utilisé pour la phytoextraction sur deux sites d’étude; et (ii) décrire les variations intra et interspécifiques des cultivars FISH CREEK (S. purpurea), SV1 (S. dasyclados) et SX67 (S. miyabeana) lorsqu’ils sont utilisés pour la phytoextraction d’un site d’étude. Les indicateurs de variations intra et interspécifiques sélectionnés sont les suivants : la biomasse totale, les concentrations en É.T. extraits et les facteurs de translocation (x ̅ pondérée des conc. É.T. dans les parties aériennes / conc. É.T. dans les racines). La contribution des propriétés du sol (degré de contamination, caractéristiques physicochimiques) à la phytoextraction a été évaluée. Les cultivars ont présenté des variations interspécifiques significatives. Cependant, les variations intraspécifiques sur un site d’étude étaient parfois plus importantes que celles mesurées entre les trois différents cultivars. L’amplitude des variations intraspécifiques que présentent le cultivar FISH CREEK sur deux sites d’étude est attribuée à l’influence du pH, de la minéralogie et au contenu en matière organique, lesquelles diffèrent entre les deux sites. Il a aussi été démontré que la phytoextraction des É.T. n’était pas systématiquement corrélée de façon positive avec le degré de contamination. Cela suggère que les concentrations en É.T. mesurées dans le sol ne peuvent pas expliquer à elles seules la variation des concentrations mesurées dans les tissus. L’implication des mécanismes de rétention dans le sol semblent être davantage responsable des variations observées. La compartimentation des É.T. suggère que le saule est efficace pour l’extraction du Cd et du Zn et qu’il est efficace pour la phytostabilisation de l’As, du Cu, du Ni, et du Pb. En ce qui concerne les quantités extraites, le cultivar FISH CREEK semble le plus performant dans la présente étude.

Spatial Variability and Contamination of Heavy Metals in the Inter-tidal Systems of a Tropical Environment

Heavy metals in the surface sediments of the two coastal ecosystems of Cochin, southwest India were assessed. The study intends to evaluate the degree of anthropogenic influence on heavy metal concentration in the sediments of the mangrove and adjacent estuarine stations using enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index. The inverse relationship of Cd and Zn with texture in the mangrove sediments suggested the anthropogenic enrichment of these metals in the mangrove systems. In the estuarine sediments, the absence of any significant correlation of the heavy metals with other sedimentary parameters and their strong interdependence revealed the possibility that the input is not through the natural weathering processes. The analysis of enrichment factor indicated a minor enrichment for Pb and Zn in mangrove sediments. While, extremely severe enrichment for Cd, moderate enrichment for Zn and minor enrichment of Pb were observed in estuarine system. The geo accumulation index exhibited very low values for all metals except Zn, indicating the sediments of the mangrove ecosystem are unpolluted to moderately polluted by anthropogenic activities. However, very strongly polluted condition for Cd and a moderately polluted condition for Zn were evident in estuarine sediments

Estimators and Tests based on Likelihood-Depth with Application to Weibull Distribution, Gaussian and Gumbel Copula

In dieser Arbeit werden mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen, eingeführt von Mizera und Müller (2004), (ausreißer-)robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter einer stetigen Dichtefunktion entwickelt. Die entwickelten Verfahren werden dann auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt. Für eindimensionale Parameter wird die Likelihood-Tiefe eines Parameters im Datensatz als das Minimum aus dem Anteil der Daten, für die die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, und dem Anteil der Daten, für die diese Ableitung nicht positiv ist, berechnet. Damit hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den beide Anzahlen gleich groß sind. Dieser wird zunächst als Schätzer gewählt, da die Likelihood-Tiefe ein Maß dafür sein soll, wie gut ein Parameter zum Datensatz passt. Asymptotisch hat der Parameter die größte Tiefe, für den die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass für eine Beobachtung die Ableitung der Loglikelihood-Funktion nach dem Parameter nicht negativ ist, gleich einhalb ist. Wenn dies für den zu Grunde liegenden Parameter nicht der Fall ist, ist der Schätzer basierend auf der Likelihood-Tiefe verfälscht. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie diese Verfälschung korrigiert werden kann sodass die korrigierten Schätzer konsistente Schätzungen bilden. Zur Entwicklung von Tests für den Parameter, wird die von Müller (2005) entwickelte Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe, die eine U-Statistik ist, benutzt. Es zeigt sich, dass für dieselben Verteilungen, für die die Likelihood-Tiefe verfälschte Schätzer liefert, die Simplex Likelihood-Tiefe eine unverfälschte U-Statistik ist. Damit ist insbesondere die asymptotische Verteilung bekannt und es lassen sich Tests für verschiedene Hypothesen formulieren. Die Verschiebung in der Tiefe führt aber für einige Hypothesen zu einer schlechten Güte des zugehörigen Tests. Es werden daher korrigierte Tests eingeführt und Voraussetzungen angegeben, unter denen diese dann konsistent sind. Die Arbeit besteht aus zwei Teilen. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird die allgemeine Theorie über die Schätzfunktionen und Tests dargestellt und zudem deren jeweiligen Konsistenz gezeigt. Im zweiten Teil wird die Theorie auf drei verschiedene Verteilungen angewandt: Die Weibull-Verteilung, die Gauß- und die Gumbel-Copula. Damit wird gezeigt, wie die Verfahren des ersten Teils genutzt werden können, um (robuste) konsistente Schätzfunktionen und Tests für den unbekannten Parameter der Verteilung herzuleiten. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass für die drei Verteilungen mithilfe der Likelihood-Tiefen robuste Schätzfunktionen und Tests gefunden werden können. In unverfälschten Daten sind vorhandene Standardmethoden zum Teil überlegen, jedoch zeigt sich der Vorteil der neuen Methoden in kontaminierten Daten und Daten mit Ausreißern.

Heavy metal and microbial loads in sewage irrigated vegetables of Kabul, Afghanistan

Little is known about the heavy metal and microbial contamination of vegetables produced in Central Asian cities. We therefore measured the concentration of cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) and of faecal pathogens (Coliform bacteria, Salmonella sp., Shigella sp., Ascaris lubricoides, Entamoeba sp. and pinworms [Oxyuris vermicularis syn. Enterobius vermicularis]) in soil, irrigation water, and marketed vegetables of Kabul City, Afghanistan. Leaf Pb and Zn concentrations of leafy vegetables were with 1–5 and 33–160 mg kg^{-1} dry weight (DW) several-fold above respective international thresholds of 0.3 mg Pb kg^{-1} and 50 mg Zn kg^{-1}. The tissue concentration of Cu was below threshold limits in all samples except for spinach in one farm. Above-threshold loads of microbes and parasites on vegetables were found in five out of six gardens with coliforms ranging from 0.5–2 × 10^7 cells 100g^{-1} fresh weight (FW), but no Salmonella and Shigella were found. Contamination with 0.2 × 10^7 eggs 100g^{-1} FW of Ascaris was detected on produce of three farms and critical concentrations of Entamoeba in a single case, while Oxyuris vermicularis, and Enterobius vermicularis were found on produce of three and four farms, respectively. Irrigation water had Ascaris, Coliforms, Salmonella, Shigella, Entamoeba, and Oxyuris vermicularis syn. Enterobius vermicularis ranging from 0.35 × 10^7 to 2 × 10^7 cells l^{-1}. The heavy metal and microbial loads on fresh UPA vegetables are likely the result of contamination from rising traffic, residues of the past decades of war and lacking treatment of sewage which needs urgent attention.

Status and Potential of Smallholder Livestock Production Systems in Xishuangbanna, southern P.R. China

With Chinas rapid economic development during the last decades, the national demand for livestock products has quadrupled within the last 20 years. Most of that increase in demand has been answered by subsidized industrialized production systems, while million of smallholders, which still provide the larger share of livestock products in the country, have been neglected. Fostering those systems would help China to lower its strong urban migration streams, enhance the livelihood of poorer rural population and provide environmentally save livestock products which have a good chance to satisfy customers demand for ecological food. Despite their importance, China’s smallholder livestock keepers have not yet gained appropriate attention from governmental authorities and researchers. However, profound analysis of those systems is required so that adequate support can lead to a better resource utilization and productivity in the sector. To this aim, this pilot study analyzes smallholder livestock production systems in Xishuangbanna, located in southern China. The area is bordered by Lao and Myanmar and geographically counts as tropical region. Its climate is characterized by dry and temperate winters and hot summers with monsoon rains from May to October. While the regionis plain, at about 500 m asl above sea level in the south, outliers of the Himalaya mountains reach out into the north of Xishuangbanna, where the highest peak reaches 2400 m asl. Except of one larger city, Jinghong, Xishuangbanna mainly is covered by tropical rainforest, areas under agricultural cultivation and villages. The major income is generated through inner-Chinese tourism and agricultural production. Intensive rubber plantations are distinctive for the lowland plains while small-scaled traditional farms are scattered in the mountane regions. In order to determine the current state and possible future chances of smallholder livestock production in that region, this study analyzed the current status of the smallholder livestock sector in the Naban River National Nature Reserve (NRNNR), an area which is largely representative for the whole prefecture. It covers an area of about 50square kilometer and reaches from 470 up to 2400 m asl. About 5500 habitants of different ethnic origin are situated in 24 villages. All data have been collected between October 2007 and May 2010. Three major objectives have been addressed in the study: 1. Classifying existing pig production systems and exploring respective pathways for development 2. Quantifying the performance of pig breeding systemsto identify bottlenecks for production 3. Analyzing past and current buffalo utilization to determine the chances and opportunities of buffalo keeping in the future In order to classify the different pig production s ystems, a baseline survey (n=204, stratified cluster sampling) was carried out to gain data about livestock species, numbers, management practices, cultivated plant species and field sizes as well associo-economic characteristics. Sampling included two clusters at village level (altitude, ethnic affiliation), resulting in 13 clusters of which 13-17 farms were interviewed respectively. Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA) and a two-step clustering algorithm have been applied to identify determining farm characteristics and assort recorded households into classes of livestock production types. The variables keep_sow_yes/no, TLU_pig, TLU_buffalo, size_of_corn_fields, altitude_class, size_of_tea_plantationand size_of_rubber_fieldhave been found to be major determinants for the characterization of the recorded farms. All farms have extensive or semi-intensive livestock production, pigs and buffaloes are predominant livestock species while chicken and aquaculture are available but play subordinate roles for livelihoods. All pig raisers rely on a single local breed, which is known as Small Ear Pig (SMEP) in the region. Three major production systemshave been identified: Livestock-corn based LB; 41%), rubber based (RB; 39%) and pig based (PB;20%) systems. RB farms earn high income from rubber and fatten 1.9 ±1.80 pigs per household (HH), often using purchased pig feed at markets. PB farms own similar sized rubber plantations and raise 4.7 ±2.77 pigs per HH, with fodder mainly being cultivated and collected in theforest. LB farms grow corn, rice and tea and keep 4.6 ±3.32 pigs per HH, also fed with collected and cultivated fodder. Only 29% of all pigs were marketed (LB: 20%; RB: 42%; PB: 25%), average annual mortality was 4.0 ±4.52 pigs per farm (LB: 4.6 ±3.68; RB: 1.9 ±2.14; PB: 7.1 ±10.82). Pig feed mainly consists of banana pseudo stem, corn and rice hives and is prepared in batches about two to three times per week. Such fodder might be sufficient in energy content but lacks appropriate content of protein. Pigs therefore suffer from malnutrition, which becomes most critical in the time before harvest season around October. Farmers reported high occurrences of gastrointestinal parasites in carcasses and often pig stables were wet and filled with manure. Deficits in nutritional and hygienic management are major limits for development and should be the first issues addressed to improve productivity. SME pork was found to be known and referred by local customers in town and by richer lowland farmers. However, high prices and lacking availability of SME pork at local wet-markets were the reasons which limited purchase. If major management constraints are overcome, pig breeders (PB and LB farms) could increase the share of marketed pigs for town markets and provide fatteners to richer RB farmers. RB farmers are interested in fattening pigs for home consumption but do not show any motivation for commercial pig raising. To determine the productivity of input factors in pig production, eproductive performance, feed quality and quantity as well as weight development of pigs under current management were recorded. The data collection included a progeny history survey covering 184 sows and 437 farrows, bi-weekly weighing of 114 pigs during a 16-months time-span on 21 farms (10 LB and 11 PB) as well as the daily recording of feed quality and quantity given to a defined number of pigs on the same 21 farms. Feed samples of all recorded ingredients were analyzed for their respective nutrient content. Since no literature values on thedigestibility of banana pseudo stem – which is a major ingredient of traditional pig feed in NRNNR – were found, a cross-sectional digestibility trial with 2x4 pigs has been conducted on a station in the research area. With the aid of PRY Herd Life Model, all data have been utilized to determine thesystems’ current (Status Quo = SQ) output and the productivity of the input factor “feed” in terms of saleable life weight per kg DM feed intake and monetary value of output per kg DM feed intake.Two improvement scenarios were simulated, assuming 1) that farmers adopt a culling managementthat generates the highest output per unit input (Scenario 1; SC I) and 2) that through improved feeding, selected parameters of reproduction are improved by 30% (SC II). Daily weight gain averaged 55 ± 56 g per day between day 200 and 600. The average feed energy content of traditional feed mix was 14.92 MJ ME. Age at first farrowing averaged 14.5 ± 4.34 months, subsequent inter-farrowing interval was 11.4 ± 2.73 months. Littersize was 5.8 piglets and weaning age was 4.3 ± 0.99 months. 18% of piglets died before weaning. Simulating pig production at actualstatus, it has been show that monetary returns on inputs (ROI) is negative (1:0.67), but improved (1:1.2) when culling management was optimized so that highest output is gained per unit feed input. If in addition better feeding, controlled mating and better resale prices at fixed dates were simulated, ROI further increased to 1:2.45, 1:2.69, 1:2.7 and 1:3.15 for four respective grower groups. Those findings show the potential of pork production, if basic measures of improvement are applied. Futureexploration of the environment, including climate, market-season and culture is required before implementing the recommended measures to ensure a sustainable development of a more effective and resource conserving pork production in the future. The two studies have shown that the production of local SME pigs plays an important role in traditional farms in NRNNR but basic constraints are limiting their productivity. However, relatively easy approaches are sufficient for reaching a notable improvement. Also there is a demand for more SME pork on local markets and, if basic constraints have been overcome, pig farmers could turn into more commercial producers and provide pork to local markets. By that, environmentally safe meat can be offered to sensitive consumers while farmers increase their income and lower the risk of external shocks through a more diverse income generating strategy. Buffaloes have been found to be the second important livestock species on NRNNR farms. While they have been a core resource of mixed smallholderfarms in the past, the expansion of rubber tree plantations and agricultural mechanization are reasons for decreased swamp buffalo numbers today. The third study seeks to predict future utilization of buffaloes on different farm types in NRNNR by analyzing the dynamics of its buffalo population and land use changes over time and calculating labor which is required for keeping buffaloes in view of the traction power which can be utilized for field preparation. The use of buffaloes for field work and the recent development of the egional buffalo population were analyzed through interviews with 184 farmers in 2007/2008 and discussions with 62 buffalo keepers in 2009. While pig based farms (PB; n=37) have abandoned buffalo keeping, 11% of the rubber based farms (RB; n=71) and 100% of the livestock-corn based farms (LB; n=76) kept buffaloes in 2008. Herd size was 2.5 ±1.80 (n=84) buffaloes in early 2008 and 2.2 ±1.69 (n=62) in 2009. Field work on own land was the main reason forkeeping buffaloes (87.3%), but lending work buffaloes to neighbors (79.0%) was also important. Other purposes were transport of goods (16.1%), buffalo trade (11.3%) and meat consumption(6.4%). Buffalo care required 6.2 ±3.00 working hours daily, while annual working time of abuffalo was 294 ±216.6 hours. The area ploughed with buffaloes remained constant during the past 10 years despite an expansion of land cropped per farm. Further rapid replacement of buffaloes by tractors is expected in the near future. While the work economy is drastically improved by the use of tractors, buffaloes still can provide cheap work force and serve as buffer for economic shocks on poorer farms. Especially poor farms, which lack alternative assets that could quickly be liquidizedin times of urgent need for cash, should not abandon buffalo keeping. Livestock has been found to be a major part of small mixed farms in NRNNR. The general productivity was low in both analyzed species, buffaloes and pigs. Productivity of pigs can be improved through basic adjustments in feeding, reproductive and hygienic management, and with external support pig production could further be commercialized to provide pork and weaners to local markets and fattening farms. Buffalo production is relatively time intensive, and only will be of importance in the future to very poor farms and such farms that cultivate very small terraces on steep slopes. These should be encouraged to further keep buffaloes. With such measures, livestock production in NRNNR has good chances to stay competitive in the future.

TU Graz: Course: 707.000 Web Science and Web Technology: Lecture 11: User Intentions and Intentional Structures on the Web

Search engines - such as Google - have been characterized as "Databases of intentions". This class will focus on different aspects of intentionality on the web, including goal mining, goal modeling and goal-oriented search. Readings: M. Strohmaier, M. Lux, M. Granitzer, P. Scheir, S. Liaskos, E. Yu, How Do Users Express Goals on the Web? - An Exploration of Intentional Structures in Web Search, We Know'07 International Workshop on Collaborative Knowledge Management for Web Information Systems in conjunction with WISE'07, Nancy, France, 2007. [Web link] Readings: Automatic identification of user goals in web search, U. Lee and Z. Liu and J. Cho WWW '05: Proceedings of the 14th International World Wide Web Conference 391--400 (2005) [Web link]

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Are discourse comprehension and cognitive processes influenced by the type of language language (English and Spanish)? A cross-language study based on elaborative inferences generation

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