Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones

The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.

Changes in water vapor transports of the ascending branch of the tropical circulation

Recent studies have found contradicting results on whether tropical atmospheric circulation (TAC) has intensified or weakened in recent decades. We here re-investigate recent changes in TAC derived from moisture transports into the tropics using high temporal and spatial resolution reanalyses from ERA-interim. We found a significant strengthening of both, the lower level inward transports and the mid level outward transports over the recent two decades. However the signal in the total budget is weak, because strengthening of the in and outflow neutralize each other, at least to some extent. We found atmospheric humidity to be relatively stable, so suggest that the intensification is mainly caused by an intensification of the wind related circulation strength. The exact quantitative values were found to heavily depend on whether the calculations are based on mean or instantaneous values. We highlight the importance for using the instantaneous ones for transport calculations, as they represent the coincidence of high wind speeds and high atmospheric humidity.

The statistical properties of tropical ice clouds generated by the West-African and Australian monsoons from ground-based radar-lidar observations

In the present paper we characterize the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds (deep ice anvils resulting from deep convection and cirrus clouds) over Niamey, Niger, West Africa, and Darwin, northern Australia, using ground-based radar–lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) programme. The ice cloud properties analysed in this paper are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, cloud fraction, the morphological properties (cloud-top height, base height, and thickness), the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, terminal fall speed, and concentration), and the internal cloud dynamics (in-cloud vertical air velocity). The main highlight of the paper is that it characterizes for the first time the probability density functions of the tropical ice cloud properties, their vertical variability and their diurnal variability at the same time. This is particularly important over West Africa, since the ARM deployment in Niamey provides the first vertically resolved observations of non-precipitating ice clouds in this crucial area in terms of redistribution of water and energy in the troposphere. The comparison between the two sites also provides an additional observational basis for the evaluation of the parametrization of clouds in large-scale models, which should be able to reproduce both the statistical properties at each site and the differences between the two sites. The frequency of ice cloud occurrence is found to be much larger over Darwin when compared to Niamey, and with a much larger diurnal variability, which is well correlated with the diurnal cycle of deep convective activity. The diurnal cycle of the ice cloud occurrence over Niamey is also much less correlated with that of deep convective activity than over Darwin, probably owing to the fact that Niamey is further away from the deep convective sources of the region. The frequency distributions of cloud fraction are strongly bimodal and broadly similar over the two sites, with a predominance of clouds characterized either by a very small cloud fraction (less than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). The ice clouds over Darwin are also much thicker (by 1 km or more statistically) and are characterized by a much larger diurnal variability than ice clouds over Niamey. Ice clouds over Niamey are also characterized by smaller particle sizes and fall speeds but in much larger concentrations, thereby carrying more ice water and producing more visible extinction than the ice clouds over Darwin. It is also found that there is a much larger occurrence of downward in-cloud air motions less than 1 m s−1 over Darwin, which together with the larger fall speeds retrieved over Darwin indicates that the life cycle of ice clouds is probably shorter over Darwin than over Niamey.

The variability of tropical ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale context from ground-based radar-lidar observations over Darwin, Australia

The high complexity of cloud parameterizations now held in models puts more pressure on observational studies to provide useful means to evaluate them. One approach to the problem put forth in the modelling community is to evaluate under what atmospheric conditions the parameterizations fail to simulate the cloud properties and under what conditions they do a good job. It is the ambition of this paper to characterize the variability of the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds in different tropical "regimes" recently identified in the literature to aid the development of better process-oriented parameterizations in models. For this purpose, the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds over Darwin, Australia are characterized using ground-based radar-lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. The ice cloud properties analysed are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, the morphological properties (cloud top height and thickness), and the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total concentration). The variability of these tropical ice cloud properties is then studied as a function of the large-scale cloud regimes derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the amplitude and phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the large-scale atmospheric regime as derived from a long-term record of radiosonde observations over Darwin. The vertical variability of ice cloud occurrence and microphysical properties is largest in all regimes (1.5 order of magnitude for ice water content and extinction, a factor 3 in effective radius, and three orders of magnitude in concentration, typically). 98 % of ice clouds in our dataset are characterized by either a small cloud fraction (smaller than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). In the ice part of the troposphere three distinct layers characterized by different statistically-dominant microphysical processes are identified. The variability of the ice cloud properties as a function of the large-scale atmospheric regime, cloud regime, and MJO phase is large, producing mean differences of up to a factor 8 in the frequency of ice cloud occurrence between large-scale atmospheric regimes and mean differences of a factor 2 typically in all microphysical properties. Finally, the diurnal cycle of the frequency of occurrence of ice clouds is also very different between regimes and MJO phases, with diurnal amplitudes of the vertically-integrated frequency of ice cloud occurrence ranging from as low as 0.2 (weak diurnal amplitude) to values in excess of 2.0 (very large diurnal amplitude). Modellers should now use these results to check if their model cloud parameterizations are capable of translating a given atmospheric forcing into the correct statistical ice cloud properties.

Aspects of the large scale tropical atmospheric circulation

An account is given of a number of recent studies with idealised models whose aim is to further understanding of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation. Initial-value integrations with a model with imposed heating are used to discuss aspects of the Asian summer monsoon, including constraints on cross-equatorial flow into the monsoon. The summer descent in the Mediterranean region and on the eastern sides of the summer subtropical anticyclones are seen to be associated with the monsoons to their east. An aqua-planet GCM is used to investigate the relationship between simple SST distributions and tropical convection and circulation. The existence of strong equatorial convection and Hadley cells is found to depend sensitively on the curvature of the meridional profile in SST. Zonally confined SST maxima produce convective maxima centred to the west and suppression of convection elsewhere. Strong equatorial zonal flow changes are found in some experiments and three mechanisms for producing these are investigated in a model with imposed heating. 1.

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.

A global blended tropopause based on ERA data, Part II: trends and tropical broadening

A new tropopause definition involving a flow-dependent blending of the traditional thermal tropopause with one based on potential vorticity has been developed and applied to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses (ERA), ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Global and regional trends in tropopause characteristics for annual and solsticial seasonal means are presented here, with emphasis on significant results for the newer ERA-Interim data for 1989-2007. The global-mean tropopause is rising at a rate of 47 m decade−1 , with pressure falling at 1.0 hPa decade−1 , and temperature falling at 0.18 K decade−1 . The Antarctic tropopause shows decreasing heights,warming,and increasing westerly winds. The Arctic tropopause also shows a warming, but with decreasing westerly winds. In the tropics the trends are small, but at the latitudes of the sub-tropical jets they are almost double the global values. It is found that these changes are mainly concentrated in the eastern hemisphere. Previous and new metrics for the rate of broadening of the tropics, based on both height and wind, give trends in the range 0.9◦ decade−1 to 2.2◦ decade−1 . For ERA-40 the global height and pressure trends for the period 1979-2001 are similar: 39 m decade−1 and -0.8 hPa decade−1. These values are smaller than those found from the thermal tropopause definition with this data set, as was used in most previous studies.

Cryopreservation of winter-dormant apple buds: 1 - variation in recovery with cultivar and winter conditions

The widely-adopted protocol for the cryopreservation of winter buds of fruit trees, such as Malus and Pyrus, was developed in a region with a continental climate, that provides relatively hard winters with a consequent effect on adaptive plant hardiness. In this study the protocol was evaluated in a typical maritime climate (eastern Denmark) where milder winters can be expected. The survival over two winters was evaluated, looking at variation between seasons and cultivars together with the progressive reduction in survival due to individual steps in the protocol. The study confirms that under such conditions significant variation in survival can be expected and that an extended period of imposed dehydration at -4oC is critical for bud survival. The occurrence of freezing events during this treatment suggests that cryodehydration may be involved, as well as evaporative water loss. To optimize the protocol for maritime environments, further investigation into the water status of the explants during cryopreservation is proposed. Keywords: Malus x domestica, cryopreservation, dormant bud, survival, grafting

A genetic linkage map of an apple rootstock progeny anchored to the Malus genome sequence

An apple rootstock progeny raised from the cross between the very dwarfing ‘M.27’ and the more vigorous ‘M.116’ (‘M.M.106’ × ‘M.27’) was used for the construction of a linkage map comprising a total of 324 loci: 252 previously mapped SSRs, 71 newly characterised or previously unmapped SSR loci (including 36 amplified by 33 out of the 35 novel markers reported here), and the self-incompatibility locus. The map spanned the 17 linkage groups (LG) expected for apple covering a genetic distance of 1,229.5 cM, an estimated 91% of the Malus genome. Linkage groups were well populated and, although marker density ranged from 2.3 to 6.2 cM/SSR, just 15 gaps of more than 15 cM were observed. Moreover, only 17.5% of markers displayed segregation distortion and, unsurprisingly in a semi-compatible backcross, distortion was particularly pronounced surrounding the self-incompatibility locus (S) at the bottom of LG17. DNA sequences of 273 SSR markers and the S locus, representing a total of 314 loci in this investigation, were used to anchor to the ‘Golden Delicious’ genome sequence. More than 260 of these loci were located on the expected pseudo-chromosome on the ‘Golden Delicious’ genome or on its homeologous pseudo-chromosome. In total, 282.4 Mbp of sequence from 142 genome sequence scaffolds of the Malus genome were anchored to the ‘M.27’ × ‘M.116’ map, providing an interface between the marker data and the underlying genome sequence. This will be exploited for the identification of genes responsible for traits of agronomic importance such as dwarfing and water use efficiency.

Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is normally not studied at the individual level with Global Climate Models (GCMs), because the coarse grid spacing is often deemed insufficient for a realistic representation of the basic underlying processes. GCMs are indeed routinely deployed at low resolution, in order to enable sufficiently long integrations, which means that only large-scale TC proxies are diagnosed. A new class of GCMs is emerging, however, which is capable of simulating TC-type vortexes by retaining a horizontal resolution similar to that of operational NWP GCMs; their integration on the latest supercomputers enables the completion of long-term integrations. The UK-Japan Climate Collaboration and the UK-HiGEM projects have developed climate GCMs which can be run routinely for decades (with grid spacing of 60 km) or centuries (with grid spacing of 90 km); when coupled to the ocean GCM, a mesh of 1/3 degrees provides eddy-permitting resolution. The 90 km resolution model has been developed entirely by the UK-HiGEM consortium (together with its 1/3 degree ocean component); the 60 km atmospheric GCM has been developed by UJCC, in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Cryopreservation of winter-dormant apple: III Bud water status and survival after cooling to -30°c and during recovery from cryopreservation

Abstract In a continuing study to improve the efficiency of dormant bud cryopreservation for tissues hardened in maritime climates, the water status of dormant buds was monitored between -4°C and recovery from liquid nitrogen (LN). Measurement of water content, simple thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry were employed. Buds did not lose water during cooling to, or holding at -30°C indicating that cryodehydration and/or other adaptive responses contributed during this essential step. A bud exotherm that was an artefact of warming was detected due to necessary handling at -4°C before cooling to -30°C. There were no significant differences between cultivars with respect to water status at -30°C or immediately upon rewarming from LN despite significant differences in post-LN survival. Buds rehydrated in 5 days, but up to 14 days may be needed for recovery for some cultivars. In some instances buds could be grafted without rehydration, taking up water across the early graft union.

Cryopreservation of winter-dormant apple buds: II - tissue water status after desiccation at -4°c and before further cooling

Abstract The established protocol for the cryopreservation of winter-dormant Malus buds requires that stem explants, containing a single, dormant bud are desiccated at -4°C, for up to 14 days, to reduce their water content to 25-30% of fresh weight. Using three apple cultivars, with known differences in response to cryopreservation, the pattern of evaporative water loss has been characterised, including early freezing events in the bud and cortical tissues that allow further desiccation by water migration to extracellular ice. There were no significant differences between cultivars in this respect or in the proportions of tissue water lost during the desiccation process. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (to -90°C) of intact buds indicated that bud tissues of the cultivar with the poorest response to cryopreservation had the highest residual water content at the end of the desiccation process and froze at the highest temperature Keywords: Malus, cryopreservation, dormant bud, dehydration