Current changes in tropical precipitation

Current changes in tropical precipitation from satellite data and climate models are assessed. Wet and dry regions of the tropics are defined as the highest 30% and lowest 70% of monthly precipitation values. Observed tropical ocean trends in the wet regime (1.8%/decade) and the dry regions (−2.6%/decade) according to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) over the period including Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data (1988–2008), where GPCP is believed to be more reliable, are of smaller magnitude than when including the entire time series (1979–2008) and closer to model simulations than previous comparisons. Analysing changes in extreme precipitation using daily data within the wet regions, an increase in the frequency of the heaviest 6% of events with warming for the SSM/I observations and model ensemble mean is identified. The SSM/I data indicate an increased frequency of the heaviest events with warming, several times larger than the expected Clausius–Clapeyron scaling and at the upper limit of the substantial range in responses in the model simulations.

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Under the influence of global warming, the mean climate of the Pacific region will probably undergo significant changes. The tropical easterly trade winds are expected to weaken; surface ocean temperatures are expected to warm fastest near the equator and more slowly farther away; the equatorial thermocline that marks the transition between the wind-mixed upper ocean and deeper layers is expected to shoal; and the temperature gradients across the thermocline are expected to become steeper. Year-to-year ENSO variability is controlled by a delicate balance of amplifying and damping feedbacks, and one or more of the physical processes that are responsible for determining the characteristics of ENSO will probably be modified by climate change. Therefore, despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to El Niño variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change.

CISK or WISHE as the mechanism for tropical cyclone intensification

Examination of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), two proposed mechanisms for tropical cyclone and polar low intensification, suggests that the sensitivity of the intensification rate of these disturbances to surface properties, such as surface friction and moisture supply, will be different for the two mechanisms. These sensitivities were examined by perturbing the surface characteristics in a numerical model with explicit convection. The intensification rate was found to have a strong positive dependence on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while remaining largely insensitive to the frictional drag coefficient. CISK does not predict the observed dependence of vortex intensification rate on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, nor the insensitivity to the frictional drag coefficient since it anticipates that intensification rate is controlled by frictional convergence in the boundary layer. Since neither conditional instability nor boundary moisture content showed any significant sensitivity to the transfer coefficients, this is true of CISK using both the convective closures of Ooyama and of Charney and Eliassen. In comparison, the WISHE intensification mechanism does predict the observed increase in intensification rate with heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while not anticipating a direct influence from surface friction.

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows

A simple theoretical model for the intensification of tropical cyclones and polar lows is developed using a minimal set of physical assumptions. These disturbances are assumed to be balanced systems intensifying through the WISHE (Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange) intensification mechanism, driven by surface fluxes of heat and moisture into an atmosphere which is neutral to moist convection. The equation set is linearized about a resting basic state and solved as an initial-value problem. A system is predicted to intensify with an exponential perturbation growth rate scaled by the radial gradient of an efficiency parameter which crudely represents the effects of unsaturated processes. The form of this efficiency parameter is assumed to be defined by initial conditions, dependent on the nature of a pre-existing vortex required to precondition the atmosphere to a state in which the vortex can intensify. Evaluation of the simple model using a primitive-equation, nonlinear numerical model provides support for the prediction of exponential perturbation growth. Good agreement is found between the simple and numerical models for the sensitivities of the measured growth rate to various parameters, including surface roughness, the rate of transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, and the scale for the growing vortex.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Biodegradation of polyethylene glycol (PEG) in three tropical soils using radio labelled PEG

Polyethylene glycol (PEG) may be added to forage based diets rich in tannins for ruminant feeding because it binds to tannins and thus prevent the formation of potentially indigestible tannin-protein complexes. The objective of this work was to determine the in vitro biodegradation (mineralization, i.e., complete breakdown of PEG to CO2) rate of PEG. C-14-Polyethylene glycol (C-14-PEG) was added to three different tropical soils (a sandy clay loam soil, SaCL; a sandy clay soil, SaC; and a sandy loam soil, SaL) and was incubated in Bartha flasks. Free PEG and PEG bound to tannins from a tannin rich local shrub were incubated under aerobic conditions for up to 70 days. The biodegradation assay monitored the (CO2)-C-14 evolved after degradation of the labelled PEG in the soils. After incubation, the amount of (CO2)-C-14 evolved from the C-14-PEG application was low. Higher PEG mineralization values were found for the soils with higher organic matter contents (20.1 and 18.6 g organic matter/kg for SaCL and SaC, respectively) than for the SaL soil (11.9 g organic matter/kg) (P < 0.05). The extent of mineralization of PEG after 70 days of incubation in the soil was significantly lower (P < 0.05) when it was added as bound to the browse tannin than in the free form (0.040 and 0.079, respectively). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro degradability of mature and immature leaves of tropical forage legumes differing in condensed tannin and non-starch polysaccharide content and composition

A study was designed to examine the relationships between protein, condensed tannin and cell wall carbohydrate content and composition and the nutritional quality of seven tropical legumes (Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leucocephala, L pallida, L macrophylla, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitotia fairchildiana). Among the legume species studied, D ovalifolium showed the lowest concentration of nitrogen, while L leucocephala showed the highest. Fibre (NDF) content was lowest in C calothyrsus, L Leucocephala and L pallida and highest in L macrophylla, which had no measurable condensed tannins. The highest tannin concentration was found in C calothyrsus. Total non-structural polysaccharides (NSP) varied among legumes species (lowest in C calothyrsus and highest in D ovalifolium), and glucose and uronic acids were the most abundant carbohydrate constituents in all legumes. Total NSP losses were lowest in F macrophylla and highest in L leucocephala and L pallida. Gas accumulation and acetate and propionate levels were 50% less with F macrophylla and D ovalifolium as compared with L leucocephala. The highest levels of branched-chain fatty acids were observed with non-tanniniferous legumes, and negative concentrations were observed with some of the legumes with high tannin content (D ovalifolium and F macrophylla). Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of condensed tannins was more related to a reduction of the initial rate of gas production (0-48 h) than to the final amount of gas produced or the extent (144h) of dry matter degradation, which could be due to differences in tannin chemistry. Consequently, more attention should be given in the future to elucidating the impact of tannin structure on the nutritional quality of tropical forage legumes. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effect of condensed tannins from tropical legumes on the activity of fibrolytic enzymes from the rumen fungus Neocallimastyx hurleyensis

A study was conducted to assess the effect of condensed tannins on the activity of fibrolytic enzymes from the anaerobic rumen fungus, Neocallimastix hurleyensis and a recombinant ferulic acid esterase (FAE) from the aerobic fungus Aspergillus niger. Condensed tannins were extracted from the tropical legumes Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leticocephala, Leucaena pallida, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitoria fairchildiana and incubated in fungal enzyme mixtures or with the recombinant FAE. In most cases, the greatest reductions in enzyme activities were observed with tannins purified from D. ovalifolium and F macrophylla and the least with tannins from L leucocephala. Thus, whereas 40 mu g ml(-1) of condensed tannins from C. calothyrsus and L. leucocephala were needed to halve the activity of N. hurleyensis carboxymethylcellulase (CMCase), just 5.5 mu g ml(-1) of the same tannins were required to inhibit 50% of xylanase activity. The beta-D-glucosidase and beta-D-Xylosidase enzymes were less sensitive to tannin inhibition and concentrations greater than 100 mu g ml(-1) were required to reduce their activity by 50%. In other assays, the inhibitory effect of condensed tannins when added to incubation mixtures containing particulate substrates (the primary cell walls of E arundinacea) or when bound to these substrate was compared. Substrate-associated tannins were more effective in preventing fibrolytic activities than tannins added directly to incubations solutions. It was concluded that condensed tannins from tropical legumes can inhibit fibrolytic enzyme activities, although the extent of the effect was dependent on the tannin, the nature of its association with the substrate and the enzyme involved. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.