The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

TRPM1 is mutated in patients with autosomal-recessive complete congenital stationary night blindness.

Night vision requires signaling from rod photoreceptors to adjacent bipolar cells in the retina. Mutations in the genes NYX and GRM6, expressed in ON bipolar cells, lead to a disruption of the ON bipolar cell response. This dysfunction is present in patients with complete X-linked and autosomal-recessive congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB) and can be assessed by standard full-field electroretinography (ERG), showing severely reduced rod b-wave amplitude and slightly altered cone responses. Although many cases of complete CSNB (cCSNB) are caused by mutations in NYX and GRM6, in approximately 60% of the patients the gene defect remains unknown. Animal models of human diseases are a good source for candidate genes, and we noted that a cCSNB phenotype present in homozygous Appaloosa horses is associated with downregulation of TRPM1. TRPM1, belonging to the family of transient receptor potential channels, is expressed in ON bipolar cells and therefore qualifies as an excellent candidate. Indeed, mutation analysis of 38 patients with CSNB identified ten unrelated cCSNB patients with 14 different mutations in this gene. The mutation spectrum comprises missense, splice-site, deletion, and nonsense mutations. We propose that the cCSNB phenotype in these patients is due to the absence of functional TRPM1 in retinal ON bipolar cells.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

CD8+ T-cell response to NY-ESO-1: relative antigenicity and in vitro immunogenicity of natural and analogue sequences.

We have shown previously that HLA-A*0201 melanoma patients can frequently develop a CTL response to the cancer testis antigen NY-ESO-1. In the present study, we have analyzed in detail the relative antigenicity and in vitro immunogenicity of natural and modified NY-ESO-1 peptide sequences. The results of this analysis revealed that, although suboptimal for binding to the HLA-A*0201 molecule, peptide NY-ESO-1 157-165 is, among natural sequences, very efficiently recognized by specific CTL clones derived from three melanoma patients. In contrast, peptides NY-ESO-1 157-167 and NY-ESO-1 155-163, which bind very strongly to HLA-A*0201, are recognized less efficiently. In agreement with previous data, substitution of peptide NY-ESO-1 157-165 COOH-terminal C with various other amino acids resulted in a significantly increased binding to HLA-A*0201 molecules as well as in an increased CTL recognition, although variable at the clonal level. Among natural peptides, NY-ESO-1 157-165 and NY-ESO-1 157-167 exhibited good in vitro immunogenicity, whereas peptide NY-ESO-1 155-163 was poorly immunogenic. The fine specificity of interaction between peptide NY-ESO-1 C165A, HLA-A*0201, and T-cell receptor was analyzed at the molecular level using a series of variant peptides containing single alanine substitutions. The findings reported here have significant implications for the formulation of NY-ESO-1-based vaccines as well as for the monitoring of either natural or vaccine-induced NY-ESO-1-specific CTL responses in cancer patients.

Response to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1-infected individuals with allelic variants of the multidrug resistance transporter 1: a pharmacogenetics study.

BACKGROUND:HIV-1-infected patients vary considerably by their response to antiretroviral treatment, drug concentrations in plasma, toxic events, and rate of immune recovery. This variability could have a genetic basis. We did a pharmacogenetics study to analyse the association between response to antiretroviral treatment and allelic variants of several genes. METHODS:In 123 patients, we did PCR analyses of the gene for the multidrug-resistance transporter (MDR1), which codes for P-glycoprotein, of genes coding for isoenzymes of cytochrome P450, CYP3A4, CYP3A5, CYP2D6, and CYP2C19, and of the gene for the chemokine receptor CCR5. We measured concentrations in plasma of the antiretroviral agents efavirenz and nelfinavir by high-performance liquid-chromatography, and measured levels of P-glycoprotein expression, CD4-cell count, and HIV-1 viraemia. FINDINGS: Median drug concentrations in patients with the MDR1 3435 TT, CT, and CC genotypes were at the 30th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, respectively (p=0.0001). In patients with CYP2D6 extensive-metaboliser or poor-metaboliser alleles, median drug concentrations were at percentiles 45 and 62.5, respectively (p=0.04). Patients with the MDR1 TT genotype 6 months after starting treatment had a greater rise in CD4-cell count (257 cells/microL) than patients with the CT (165 cells/microL) and CC (121 cells/microL) genotype (p=0.0048), and the best recovery of naïve CD4-cells. INTERPRETATION:The polymorphism MDR1 3435 C/T predicts immune recovery after initiation of antiretroviral treatment. This finding suggests that P-glycoprotein has an important role in admittance of antiretroviral drugs to restricted compartments in vivo.

A measure of the intensity of response to alcohol to screen for alcohol use disorders in primary care.

Alcohol-dependent subjects tend to report lower level of response to alcohol (LR) in the years before the disorder developed, compared to control subjects. The Self-Rating of the Effects of alcohol (SRE) score is a quick and valid retrospective estimate of LR. This study examined the associations between alcohol abuse or dependence and early experience of alcohol as measured on retrospective SRE score (relating to the first five times alcohol was imbibed), and the presence of alcohol abuse or dependence, in patients attending primary care. Higher Early SRE score (i.e. greater early tolerance of alcohol) was obtained in patients with an alcohol-related diagnosis than in patients without those diagnoses. Using a cut-off of 2 on the Early SRE score, the Early SRE score could discriminate between patients with and without an alcohol diagnosis with moderate to high sensitivity (84%) and modest specificity (57%).

Neuroprotection in cerebral ischemia : an effect of c-Jun N-terminal kinase inhibition on the inflammatory response

RESUMESuite à un accident vasculaire cérébral (AVC) ischémique, les cellules gliales ducerveau deviennent activées, de nombreuses cellules inflammatoires pénètrent dans letissu lésé et sécrètent une grande variété de cytokines et chémokines. Aujourd'hui, ilexiste des interrogations sur les effets bénéfiques ou délétères de cette inflammation surla taille de la lésion et le pronostic neurologique.Ce projet vise à évaluer l'effet d'un peptide neuroprotecteur, D-JNKI1, inhibiteur de lavoie pro-apoptotique de signalisation intracellulaire c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK), surl'inflammation post-ischémique.Nous montrons d'abord que la microglie est largement activée dans toute la région lésée48 h après l'induction d'une ischémie chez la souris. Cependant, malgré l'inhibition dela mort neuronale par D-JNKI1 évaluée à 48 h, nous n'observons de modification ni del'activation de la microglie, ni de son nombre. Ensuite, nous montrons que le cerveaupeut être protégé même s'il y a une augmentation massive de la sécrétion de médiateursinflammatoires dans la circulation systémique très tôt après induction d'un AVCischémique. De plus, nous notons que la sécrétion de molécules inflammatoires dans lecerveau n'est pas différente entre les animaux traités par D-JNKI1 ou une solutionsaline, bien que nous ayons obtenu une neuroprotection significative chez les animauxtraités.En conclusion, nous montrons que l'inhibition de la voie de JNK par D-JNKI1n'influence pas directement l'inflammation post-ischémique. Ceci suggère quel'inhibition de l'inflammation n'est pas forcément nécessaire pour obtenir en hautdegré de neuroprotection du parenchyme lésé après ischémie cérébrale, et que lesmécanismes inflammatoires déclenchés lors d'une ischémie cérébrale ne sont pasforcément délétères pour la récupération du tissu endommagé.SUMMARYAfter cerebral ischemia, glial cells become activated and numerous inflammatory cellsinfiltrate the site of the lesion, secreting a large variety of cytokines and chemokines. Itis controversial whether this brain inflammation is detrimental or beneficial and how itinfluences lesion size and neurological outcome.This project was aimed at critically evaluating whether the neuroprotective peptide DJNKI,an inhibitor of the pro-apopotic c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) pathway,modulates post-ischemic inflammation in animal models of stroke. Specifically, it wasasked whether JNK inhibition prevents microglial activation and the release ofinflammatory mediators.In the first part of this study, we showed that microglia was activated throughout thelesion 48 h after experimental stroke. However, the activation and accumulation ofmicroglia was not reduced by D-JNKI1, despite a significant reduction of the lesionsize. In the second part of this project, we demonstrated that neuroprotection measuredat 48 h occurs even though inflammatory mediators are released in the plasma veryearly after the onset of cerebral ischemia. Furthermore, we found that secretion ofinflammatory mediators in the brain was not different in groups treated with D-JNKI1or not, despite a significant reduction of the lesion size in the treated group.Altogether, we show that inhibition of the JNK pathway using D-JNKI1 does notinfluence directly post-stroke inflammation. Inhibition of inflammation is therefore notnecessarily required for neuroprotection after cerebral ischemia. Thus, post-strokeinflammation might not be detrimental for the tissue recovery.

Time-Course In Vivo Trafficking Pattern and Effector Function of Donor-Specific Regulatory T Cells in Response to an Allograft.

Background: Experimental data have suggested that adoptive transfer of CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (Tregs), capable of controlling immune responses to specifi c auto- or alloantigens, could be used as a therapeutic strategy to promote specifi c tolerance in T-cell mediated diseases and in organ transplantation (Tx). However, before advocating the application of immunotherapy with Tregs in Tx, we need to improve our understanding of their in vivo homeostasis, traffi cking pattern and effector function in response to alloantigens. Methods : Donor-antigen specifi c murine Tregs were generated and characterized in vitro following our described protocols. Using an adoptive transfer and skin allotransplantation model, we have analyzed the in vivo expansion and homing of fl uorescent-labeled effector T cells (Teff) and Tregs, at different time-points after Tx, using fl ow-cytometry as well as fl uorescence microscopy techniques. Results: Tregs expressed CD62L, CCR7 and CD103 allowing their homing into lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues (gut, skin) after intravenous injection. While hyporesponsive to TCR stimulation in vitro, transferred Tregs survived, migrated to secondary lymphoid organs and preferentially expanded within the allograft draining lymph nodes. Furthermore, Foxp3+ cells could be detected inside the allograft as early as day 3-5 after Tx. At a much later time-point (day 60 after Tx), graft-infi ltrating Foxp3+ cells were also detectable in tolerant recipients. When transferred alone, CD4+CD25- Teff cells expanded within secondary lymphoid organs and infi ltrated the allograft by day 3-5 after Tx. The co-transfer of Tregs limited the expansion of alloreactive Teff cells as well as their recruitment into the allograft. The promotion of graft survival observed in the presence of Tregs was in part mediated by the inhibition of the production of effector cytokines by CD4+CD25- T cells. Conclusion: Taken together, our results suggest that the suppression of allograft rejection and the induction of Tx tolerance are in part dependant on the alloantigendriven homing and expansion of Tregs. Thus, the appropriate localization of Tregs may be critical for their suppressive function in vivo.

Nonvitamin-k-antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Recombinant erythropoietin in acute chemotherapy-induced anemia of children with cancer.

Chemotherapy-induced anemia in children with cancer is usually of acute onset. To investigate an alternate treatment to transfusion (Tx), we undertook a phase I-II clinical trial of daily administrations of recombinant erythropoietin (rHuEPO). Patients with a hemoglobin (Hgb) value < 75 g/l were treated for 14 days in cohorts of 3 at escalating daily doses of 25, 50, 70, 80, 90, and 100 U/kg respectively. The maximum-tolerated dose was not encountered. Of 18 courses given to 15 children aged 0.5-18 years, 7 (39%) were associated with increased or stable Hgb levels (courses without Tx), while 11 (61%) were terminated by a Tx, without evidence of a dose-response relationship. Changes in mean Hgb levels and absolute reticulocyte counts were paralleled by those of mean white blood cell, platelet, and absolute neutrophil counts during the first 7 days and when the end-points of the study were reached. Numbers of circulating burst-forming units-erythroid remained low throughout courses without Tx. No cumulative increase of serially determined serum EPO levels was observed and serum ferritin levels were elevated in both groups of courses. We conclude that daily administration of rHuEPO were safe but ineffective in our trial. Recovery of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression appeared to be the rate-limiting factor for the outcome, without evidence of an enhanced stimulation of erythropoiesis. The lack of a proliferative response of specific progenitor cells suggested a mechanism of transient primary resistance to rHuEPO.

The immunopathology of human schistosomiasis-III: immunoglobulin isotype profiles and response to praziquantel

Immunoglobulin (Ig) isotype (IgG, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, IgG4, IgM, IgD and IgE) levels were investigated, both pre- and post-treatment with praziquantel (PZQ), in 43 adults and children chronically infected with Schistosoma mansoni , by means of a two-site, isotype-specific immunoenzymometric assay. The patients were classified as responders (R) or non-responders (NR) on the basis of their circumoval precipitin test (COPT) results 12 months after treatment. In comparison with controls, pre-treatment R children showed significantly higher levels of IgG, IgG1, IgG4 (p<0.001) and IgE (p<0.01), and diminished IgG2 (p<0.05), while NR children showed significantly elevated levels only of IgE (p<0.05). Twelve months after therapy, R children maintained significantly lower levels of IgG2, but showed significantly decreased levels of IgG, IgG1, IgG4, and IgE, while the Ig isotype profile of NR children was unaltered. Adult R and NR showed similar isotype profiles before chemotherapy, with the exception of significantly elevated IgM levels in R. Twelve months after therapy, R adults showed significantly decreased levels of IgG, IgG1, and IgG4, while NR adults showed only diminshed IgG4 levels. These results reveal different Ig isotype profiles in untreated adults and children chronically infected with S. mansoni. The results further show that the pre-treatment Ig isotype profile may be significantly modified after an effective R to chemotherapy, accounted for by down regulation of the IgG1 isotype in association with negative seroconversion of the COPT in R patients. The COPT reaction has been associated with the highly specific egg glycoprotein antigen w1, which shows a significant reduction in reactivity six months after treatment. IgG1 may thus play a main role in the response against the w1 antigen.

Defective production of interleukin 2 in patients with Chagas' disease: purified IL-2 augments in vitro response in patients with chagasic cardiomyopathy

The production of interleukin 2 (IL-2) by peripheral blood mononuclear cells, from patients with different clinical forms of Chagas disease and healthy controls, was evaluated after stimulation with Trypanosoma cruzi antigen, PPD and PHA. PHA induced higher production of IL-2 in infected patients than healthy controls. No diferences were found between infected groups. With PPD the trend was similar, the only difference was that asymptomatic infected patients (INF) showed higher levels of IL-2 production than patients with cardiomyopathy (CDM). With T. cruzi antigen, most patients showed little or no IL-2 production at 24 hr, a peak at 48 hr and an abrupt fall at 72 hr. A similar pattern of IL- 2 production was observed in INF and CDM. To evaluate the physiologic relevance of the deficit in IL-2 production, we studied the effect of non-mitogenic concentratios of IL-2 in the proliferative response to specific antigens. The addition of IL-2 only enhanced the proliferative response of CDM patients. These observations suggest that patients suffering Chagas' disease, particularly CDM, have a significant reduction in the capacity to produce IL-2. These findings could be of importance in the pathogenesis of Chagas' disease.

Role of NOX enzymes in phagocyte response and signaling upon Chlamydia infection

Les membres de l'ordre des Chlamydiales peuvent infecter un choix étendu d'animaux, insectes, et protistes. Comme toutes bactéries intracellulaires obligatoires, les Chlamydiales ont besoin d'une cellule hôte pour se répliquer. Chaque fois qu'une cellule est infectée une lutte commence entre les mécanismes de défense de la cellule et l'arsenal de facteurs de virulence de la bactérie. Dans cette thèse nous nous sommes intéressés à déterminer le rôle de deux mécanismes de l'immunité innée de l'hôte. En premier, nous avons étudié les NADPH oxidases, une source de molécules superoxydantes (MSO). Leur rôle dans la restriction de la réplication de Waddlia chondrophila et Estrella iausannensis a été étudié dans l'organisme modèle Dictyostelium discoideum et les macrophages humains. Différentes protéines Nox étaient nécessaires pour contrôler la réplication de W. chondrophila ou E. Iausannensis. De plus, nous avons déterminé que parmi les Chlamydiales, cinq espèces possédaient une catalase. Cette enzyme peut dégrader l'eau oxygénée, une MSO. L'activité de la catalase a été démontrée in vitro et dans les corps élémentaires. Avant de pouvoir étudier le rôle de NOX2 dans des macrophages infectés avec E. Iausannensis, nous avons dû établir la capacité de la bactérie à se répliquer clans les macrophages avec son trafic intracellulaire. Le deuxième mécanisme d'immunité innée que nous avons étudié est l'autophagie. Dans les cellules infectées l'autophagie permet de digérer les bactéries envahissantes. Deux protéines de la voie autophagique (Atg1 et Atg8) jouent un rôle dans la restriction de la croissance de W. chondrophila dans D. discoideum. D'avantage d'études sur l'immunité innée et les bactéries apparentés aux Chlamydia sont indispensables, car les réponses paraissent être spécifiques pour chaque espèce. - Members of the Chlamydiales order are able to infect a large variety of animals, insects, and protists. These obligate intracellular bacteria require a host cell for replication. Each time a cell is infected a struggle begins between the virulence arsenal of the bacteria and the defense mechanisms activated by the host. Each bacterial species will exhibit a selection of virulence factors that will allow it to overcome the defense of the host in some species, but not others. In this thesis we were interested in dissecting the role of two host innate immunity mechanisms. First we determined the role of NADPH oxidases, a source of reactive oxygen species (ROS), in restricting replication of Waddlia chondrophila and EstreHa lausannensis in the model organism Dictyostelium discoideum and human macrophages. Different Nox proteins were required to restrict growth of W. chondrophila and E. lausannensis. Additionally, we determined that five Chlamydia- related bacterial species encode for catalase, an enzyme that is able to degrade hydrogen peroxide, a ROS. The activity of the catalase was demonstrated in vitro and in elementary bodies. To study the role of NOX2 in macrophages for E. lausannensis we first had to determine the ability of E. lausannensis to grow in macrophages. Besides demonstrating its replication we also determined the intracellular trafficking of E. lausannensis. The second innate immunity mechanism studied was autophagy. Through autophagy bacteria can be targeted to degradation. Atg1 and Atg8, two autophagic proteins appeared restrict W. chondrophila replication in D. discoideum. More studies on innate immunity and Chlamydia-related bacteria are required. It appears that the responses to innate immunity are species specific and it will be difficult to generalize data obtained for W. chondrophila to the Chlamydiales order.