Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Radiation induced apoptosis and initial DNA damage are inversely related in locally advanced breast cancer patients.

Background. DNA-damage assays, quantifying the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced by radiation, have been proposed as a predictive test for radiation-induced toxicity. Determination of radiation-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes by flow cytometry analysis has also been proposed as an approach for predicting normal tissue responses following radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between initial DNA damage, estimated by the number of double-strand breaks induced by a given radiation dose, and the radio-induced apoptosis rates observed. Methods. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were taken from 26 consecutive patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma. Radiosensitivity of lymphocytes was quantified as the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced per Gy and per DNA unit (200 Mbp). Radio-induced apoptosis at 1, 2 and 8 Gy was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Results. Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and data fitted to a semi logarithmic mathematical model. A positive correlation was found among radio-induced apoptosis values at different radiation doses: 1, 2 and 8 Gy (p < 0.0001 in all cases). Mean DSB/Gy/DNA unit obtained was 1.70 ± 0.83 (range 0.63-4.08; median, 1.46). A statistically significant inverse correlation was found between initial damage to DNA and radio-induced apoptosis at 1 Gy (p = 0.034). A trend toward 2 Gy (p = 0.057) and 8 Gy (p = 0.067) was observed after 24 hours of incubation. Conclusions. An inverse association was observed for the first time between these variables, both considered as predictive factors to radiation toxicity.

Ki-67 MIB1 labelling index and the prognosis of primary TaT1 urothelial cell carcinoma of the bladder.

Aims: To evaluate whether ki-67 labelling index (LI) has independent prognostic value for survival of patients with bladder urothelial tumours graded according to the 2004 World Health Organisation classification. Methods: Ki-67 LI was evaluated in 164 cases using the grid counting method. Non-invasive (stage Ta) tumours were: papilloma (n = 5), papillary urothelial neoplasia of low malignant potential (PUNLMP; n = 26), and low (LG; n = 34) or high grade (HG; n = 15) papillary urothelial carcinoma. Early invasive (stage T1) tumours were: LG (n = 58) and HG (n = 26) carcinoma. Statistical analysis included Fisher and x2 tests, and mean comparisons by ANOVA and t test. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were performed according to the Kaplan–Meier method with log rank test and Cox’s proportional hazard method. Results: Mean ki-67 LI increased from papilloma to PUNLMP, LG, and HG in stage Ta (p,0.0001) and from LG to HG in stage T1 (p = 0.013) tumours. High tumour proliferation (.13%) was related to greater tumour size (p = 0.036), recurrence (p = 0.036), progression (p = 0.035), survival (p = 0.054), and high p53 accumulation (p = 0.015). Ki-67 LI and tumour size were independent predictors of disease free survival (DFS), but only ki-67 LI was related to progression free survival (PFS). Cancer specific overall survival (OS) was related to ki-67 LI, tumour size, and p27kip1 downregulation. Ki-67 LI was the main independent predictor of DFS (p = 0.0005), PFS (p = 0.0162), and cancer specific OS (p = 00195). Conclusion: Tumour proliferation measured by Ki-67 LI is related to tumour recurrence, stage progression, and is an independent predictor of DFS, PFS, and cancer specific OS in TaT1 bladder urothelial cell carcinoma.

Relative adrenal insufficiency and hemodynamic status in cardiopulmonary bypass surgery patients. A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to determine the risk factors for relative adrenal insufficiency in cardiopulmonary bypass patients and the impact on postoperative vasopressor requirements. METHODS: Prospective cohort study on cardiopulmonary bypass patients who received etomidate or not during anesthetic induction. Relative adrenal insufficiency was defined as a rise in serum cortisol test plasma cortisol levels were inversely associated with maximum norepinephrine dose (rho = -0.22, P = 0.02; rho = -0.18, P = 0.05; rho = -0.21, P = 0.02; and rho = -0.22, P = 0.02, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Relative adrenal insufficiency in elective cardiopulmonary bypass patients may induce postoperative vasopressor dependency. Use of etomidate in these patients is a modifiable risk factor for the development of relative adrenal insufficiency that should be avoided.

Validity and reliability of the Spanish version of the DN4 (Douleur Neuropathique 4 questions) questionnaire for differential diagnosis of pain syndromes associated to a neuropathic or somatic component

BACKGROUND This study assesses the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of DN4 questionnaire as a tool for differential diagnosis of pain syndromes associated to a neuropathic (NP) or somatic component (non-neuropathic pain, NNP). METHODS A study was conducted consisting of two phases: cultural adaptation into the Spanish language by means of conceptual equivalence, including forward and backward translations in duplicate and cognitive debriefing, and testing of psychometric properties in patients with NP (peripheral, central and mixed) and NNP. The analysis of psychometric properties included reliability (internal consistency, inter-rater agreement and test-retest reliability) and validity (ROC curve analysis, agreement with the reference diagnosis and determination of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values in different subsamples according to type of NP). RESULTS A sample of 164 subjects (99 women, 60.4%; age: 60.4 +/- 16.0 years), 94 (57.3%) with NP (36 with peripheral, 32 with central, and 26 with mixed pain) and 70 with NNP was enrolled. The questionnaire was reliable [Cronbach's alpha coefficient: 0.71, inter-rater agreement coefficient: 0.80 (0.71-0.89), and test-retest intra-class correlation coefficient: 0.95 (0.92-0.97)] and valid for a cut-off value > or = 4 points, which was the best value to discriminate between NP and NNP subjects. DISCUSSION This study, representing the first validation of the DN4 questionnaire into another language different than the original, not only supported its high discriminatory value for identification of neuropathic pain, but also provided supplemental psychometric validation (i.e. test-retest reliability, influence of educational level and pain intensity) and showed its validity in mixed pain syndromes.

Analysis of TNFAIP3, a feedback inhibitor of nuclear factor-κB and the neighbor intergenic 6q23 region in rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility

INTRODUCTION Genome-wide association studies of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have identified an association of the disease with a 6q23 region devoid of genes. TNFAIP3, an RA candidate gene, flanks this region, and polymorphisms in both the TNFAIP3 gene and the intergenic region are associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. We hypothesized that there is a similar association with RA, including polymorphisms in TNFAIP3 and the intergenic region. METHODS To test this hypothesis, we selected tag-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in both loci. They were analyzed in 1,651 patients with RA and 1,619 control individuals of Spanish ancestry. RESULTS Weak evidence of association was found both in the 6q23 intergenic region and in the TNFAIP3 locus. The rs582757 SNP and a common haplotype in the TNFAIP3 locus exhibited association with RA. In the intergenic region, two SNPs were associated, namely rs609438 and rs13207033. The latter was only associated in patients with anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies. Overall, statistical association was best explained by the interdependent contribution of SNPs from the two loci TNFAIP3 and the 6q23 intergenic region. CONCLUSIONS Our data are consistent with the hypothesis that several RA genetic factors exist in the 6q23 region, including polymorphisms in the TNFAIP3 gene, like that previously described for systemic lupus erythematosus.

Sexually dimorphic melanin-based colour polymorphism, feather melanin content, and wing feather structure in the barn owl (Tyto alba)

Feathers confer protection against biophysical agents and determine flying ability. The geometry and arrangement of the barbs, together with the keratin and pigments deposited in the feathers, determine the mechanical stability of the vane, and its stiffness and resistance to abrasive agents. In colour-polymorphic species, individuals display alternative colour morphs, which can be associated with different foraging strategies. Each morph may therefore require specific flying abilities, and their feathers may be exposed to different abrasive agents. Feathers of differently coloured individuals may thus have a specific structure, and colour pigments may help resist abrasive agents and improve stiffness. We examined these predictions in the barn owl (Tyto alba), a species for which the ventral body side varies from white to dark reddish pheomelanic, and in the number and size of black spots located at the tip of the feathers. White and reddish birds show different foraging strategies, and the size of black feather spots is associated with several phenotypic attributes. We found that birds displaying a darker reddish coloration on the ventral body side deposit more melanin pigments in their remiges, which also have fewer barbs. This suggests that wear resistance increases with darkness, whereas feathers of lighter coloured birds may bend less easily. Accordingly, individuals displaying a lighter reddish coloration on the ventral body side, and those displaying larger black spots, displayed more black transverse bars on their remiges: as larger-spotted individuals are heavier and longer-winged birds also have more transverse bars, these bars may reduce feather bending when flying. We conclude that differently coloured individuals produce wing feathers of different strengths to adopt alternative behavioural and life history strategies

Early and late skin reactions to radiotherapy for breast cancer and their correlation with radiation-induced DNA damage in lymphocytes

INTRODUCTION Radiotherapy outcomes might be further improved by a greater understanding of the individual variations in normal tissue reactions that determine tolerance. Most published studies on radiation toxicity have been performed retrospectively. Our prospective study was launched in 1996 to measure the in vitro radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes before treatment with radical radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer, and to assess the early and the late radiation skin side effects in the same group of patients. We prospectively recruited consecutive breast cancer patients receiving radiation therapy after breast surgery. To evaluate whether early and late side effects of radiotherapy can be predicted by the assay, a study was conducted of the association between the results of in vitro radiosensitivity tests and acute and late adverse radiation effects. METHODS Intrinsic molecular radiosensitivity was measured by using an initial radiation-induced DNA damage assay on lymphocytes obtained from breast cancer patients before radiotherapy. Acute reactions were assessed in 108 of these patients on the last treatment day. Late morbidity was assessed after 7 years of follow-up in some of these patients. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) morbidity score system was used for both assessments. RESULTS Radiosensitivity values obtained using the in vitro test showed no relation with the acute or late adverse skin reactions observed. There was no evidence of a relation between acute and late normal tissue reactions assessed in the same patients. A positive relation was found between the treatment volume and both early and late side effects. CONCLUSION After radiation treatment, a number of cells containing major changes can have a long survival and disappear very slowly, becoming a chronic focus of immunological system stimulation. This stimulation can produce, in a stochastic manner, late radiation-related adverse effects of varying severity. Further research is warranted to identify the major determinants of normal tissue radiation response to make it possible to individualize treatments and improve the outcome of radiotherapy in cancer patients.

Comparative evaluation of phenol and thimerosal as preservatives for a candidate vaccine against American cutaneous leishmaniasis

For decades thimerosal has been used as a preservative in the candidate vaccine for cutaneous leishmaniasis, which was developed by Mayrink et al. The use of thimerosal in humans has been banned due to its mercury content. This study addresses the standardization of phenol as a new candidate vaccine preservative. We have found that the proteolytic activity was abolished when the test was conducted using the candidate vaccine added to merthiolate (MtVac) as well as to phenol (PhVac). The Montenegro's skin test conversion rates induced by MtVac and by PhVac was 68.06% and 85.9%, respectively, and these values were statistically significant (p < 0.05). The proliferative response of peripheral mononuclear blood cells shows that the stimulation index of mice immunized with both candidate vaccines was higher than the one in control animals (p < 0.05). The ability of the candidate vaccines to induce protection in C57BL/10 mice against a challenge with infective Leishmania amazonensis promastigotes was tested and the mice immunized with PhVac developed smaller lesions than the mice immunized with MtVac. Electrophoresis of phenol-preserved antigen revealed a number of proteins, which were better preserved in PhVac. These results do in fact encourage the use of phenol for preserving the immunogenic and biochemical properties of the candidate vaccine for cutaneous leishmaniasis.