Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Cost-effectiveness of a national initiative to improve hand hygiene compliance using the outcome of healthcare associated staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia

Background The objective is to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the Australian National Hand Hygiene Inititiave implemented between 2009 and 2012 using healthcare associated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia as the outcome. Baseline comparators are the eight existing state and territory hand hygiene programmes. The setting is the Australian public healthcare system and 1,294,656 admissions from the 50 largest Australian hospitals are included. Methods The design is a cost-effectiveness modelling study using a before and after quasi-experimental design. The primary outcome is cost per life year saved from reduced cases of healthcare associated Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia, with cost estimated by the annual on-going maintenance costs less the costs saved from fewer infections. Data were harvested from existing sources or were collected prospectively and the time horizon for the model was 12 months, 2011–2012. Findings No useable pre-implementation Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia data were made available from the 11 study hospitals in Victoria or the single hospital in Northern Territory leaving 38 hospitals among six states and territories available for cost-effectiveness analyses. Total annual costs increased by $2,851,475 for a return of 96 years of life giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $29,700 per life year gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed a 100% chance the initiative was cost effective in the Australian Capital Territory and Queensland, with ICERs of $1,030 and $8,988 respectively. There was an 81% chance it was cost effective in New South Wales with an ICER of $33,353, a 26% chance for South Australia with an ICER of $64,729 and a 1% chance for Tasmania and Western Australia. The 12 hospitals in Victoria and the Northern Territory incur annual on-going maintenance costs of $1.51M; no information was available to describe cost savings or health benefits. Conclusions The Australian National Hand Hygiene Initiative was cost-effective against an Australian threshold of $42,000 per life year gained. The return on investment varied among the states and territories of Australia.

Gene flow from Corymbia hybrids in northern New South Wales

Some of the most productive taxa for forestry are interspecific F1 hybrids grown as exotics in the tropics and subtropics. Attributes of resilience, adaptability and vigour which engender the hybrids for wood production, may also exacerbate the risk they present from gene flow to native species gene pools or to local ecologies as weeds. To determine the biological and genetic factors that influence the extent of hybridisation, we examine the distribution and genealogy of wildlings surrounding plantings of locally-exotic Corymbia torelliana (Section Cadageria) near native C. henryi (Section Maculatae) in northern New South Wales. Our study showed pre-mating and pre- and post-zygotic barriers were incomplete, with in situ generation and natural establishment of both F1 hybrids (n = 3) and advanced generation hybrids under the disturbed conditions bordering native forest. As hybrids were located on alluvial flats exposed to frost, they also likely have an extended ecological range relative to native C. henryi. Despite the likely generation of large viable seed crops on F1 trees at the site over many years, establishment success and survival of advanced generation hybrids may be low, as only 5 immature and no mature advanced generation hybrids were identified. Propagation and genetic analysis of a seed crop from one F1 wildling showed early survival and vigour of seedlings in cultivation was high, and that at least for some F1 in some seasons, backcrossing to the recurrent native C. henryi parent is favoured (60%), whereas selfing (10%) and crossing with other F1 (30%) was less frequent. Transport of seed by stingless bees probably accounted for long distance dispersal from C. torelliana, but this mechanism does not appear to supplement gravity-dispersal of seed from the F1. Coupled with other evidence from studies of bee behaviour, controlled pollination in Corymbia sp., and long-term fitness in second generation eucalypt hybrids, we anticipate gene flow via pollen rather than seed will be the greater challenge for managing the risk of introgression of C. torelliana ancestry into native species from the planted F1 hybrid. If large sources of F1 pollen become available to compete with native pollen, gene flow will probably be frequent and hybrids may establish in disturbed conditions and in habitats beyond the ecological range of their native parent. Further study is needed to determine the degree to which outbreeding depression and poor survival inhibits on-going gene flow.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Use of phosphorus fertiliser for increased productivity of legume-based sown pastures in the Brigalow Belt region – a review

The Brigalow Belt bioregion of southern and central Queensland supports a large percentage of northern Australia's sown pastures and beef herd. The Brigalow soils were widely thought to have adequate phosphorus (P) for cropping, sown pastures and grazing animals, which has led to almost no use of P fertiliser on sown pastures. The majority of pastures established in the region were sown with tropical grasses only (i.e. no legumes were sown). Under grass-only pastures, nitrogen (N) mineralisation rates decline with time since establishment as N is 'tied-up' in soil organic matter. This process leads to a significant decline in pasture and animal productivity and is commonly called 'pasture rundown'. Incorporating pasture legumes has been identified as the best long-term solution to improve the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Pasture legumes require adequate P to grow well and fix large amounts of N to increase the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Producers and farm advisors have traditionally thought that P fertiliser is not cost-effective for legume-based improved pastures growing on inland areas of Queensland despite there being little, if any, data on production responses or their economic outcomes. Recent studies show large and increasing areas of low plant available soil P and large responses by pasture legumes to P fertiliser on Brigalow soils. The economic analysis in this scoping study indicates potential returns of 9–15% on extra funds invested from the application of P fertiliser, when establishing legumes into grass pastures on low P soils (i.e. lower than the critical P requirement of the legume grown). Higher returns of 12–24% may be possible when adding P fertiliser to already established grass/legume pastures on such soils. As these results suggest potential for significant returns from applying P fertiliser on legume pastures, it is recommended that research be conducted to better quantify the impacts of P fertiliser on productivity and profit. Research priorities include: quantifying the animal production and economic impact of fertilising legume-based pastures in the sub-tropics for currently used legumes; quantifying the comparative P requirements and responses of available legume varieties; understanding clay soil responses to applied P fertiliser; testing the P status of herds grazing in the Brigalow Belt; and quantifying the extent of other nutrient deficiencies (e.g. sulphur and potassium) for legume based pastures. Development and extension activities are required to demonstrate the commercial impacts of applying P fertiliser to legume based pastures.

"Description of blue tongue and other arboviruses in Northern Australia"

A serological survey of cattle from throughout Queensland and sheep from cattle/sheep interface areas was conducted to determine the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to Bluetongue virus serotypes. This information allowed preliminary designation of arbovirusfree zones and identification of livestock populations at greatest risk to introduction of exotic Bluetongue viruses. Throughout the state antibodies were detected to only serotypes I and 21. In cattle prevalence decreased with increasing distance from the coast ringing from 73% in the far north to less than I% in the southwest. In sheep, prevalence of bluetongue antibodies in the major cattle/sheep interface areas in the north-west and central Queensland ranged from O% to 5%. A system of strategically placed sentinel herds of 10 young serologically negative cattle was established across northern Australia to monitor the distribution and seasonality of bluetongue viruses. Initially 23 herds were located in Queensland, 4 in Northern Territory and 2 in Western Australia but by the completion of the project the number of herds in Queensland had been reduced to 12. No bluetongue virus activity was detected in Western Australia or Northern Territory herds throughout the project although testing of one herd in Northern Territory with a history of bluetongue activity was not done after June 1991. In Queensland, activity to bluetongue serotypes I and 21 was detected in all years of the project. Transmissions occurred predominantly in the period April to September and were more widespread in wetter years' The pathogenic bluetongue setotypes previously isolated from the Northern Territory have not spread to adjoining States.

Improving cost-effectiveness of supplementation systems for breeder herds in northern Australia

Low level strategic supplements constitute one of the few options for northern beef producers to increase breeder productivity and profitability. Objectives of the project were to improve the cost-effectiveness of using such supplements and to improve supplement delivery systems. Urea-based supplements fed during the dry season can substantially reduce breeder liveweight loss and increase fertility during severe dry seasons. Also when fed during the late wet season these supplements increased breeder body liveweight and increased fertility of breeders in low body condition. Intake of dry lick supplements fed free choice is apparently determined primarily by the palatability of supplements relative to pasture, and training of cattle appears to be of limited importance. Siting of supplementation points has some effect on supplement intake, but little effect on grazing behaviour. Economic analysis of supplementation (urea, phosphorus or molasses) and weaning strategies was based on the relative efficacy of these strategies to maintain breeder body condition late in the dry season. Adequate body condition of breeders at this time of the year is needed to avoid mortality from under-nutrition and achieve satisfactory fertility of breeders during the following wet season. Supplements were highly cost-effective when they reduced mortality, but economic returns were generally low if the only benefit was increased fertility.

Queensland Spanner Crab Fishery: Commercial quota setting for June 2016 – May 2018

The Queensland (QLD) fishery for spanner crabs primarily lands live crab for export overseas, with gross landings valued around A$5 million per year. Quota setting rules are used to assess and adjust total allowable harvest (quota) around an agreed target harvest of 1631 t and capped at a maximum of 2000 t. The quota varies based on catch rate indicators from the commercial fishery and a fishery independent survey. Quota management applies only to ‘Managed Area A’ which includes waters between Rockhampton and the New South Wales (NSW) border. This report has been prepared to inform Fisheries Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries) and stakeholders of catch trends and the estimated quota of spanner crabs in Managed Area A for the forthcoming annual quota periods (1 June 2016–31 May 2018). The quota calculations followed the methodology developed by the crab fishery Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) between November 2007 and March 2008. The QLD total reported spanner crab harvest was 1170 t for the 2015 calendar year. In 2015, a total of 55 vessels were active in the QLD fishery, down from 262 vessels at the fishery’s peak activity in 1994. Recent spanner crab harvests from NSW waters average about 125 t per year, but fell to 80 t in 2014–2015. The spanner crab Managed Area A commercial standardised catch rate averaged 0.818 kg per net-lift in 2015, 22.5% below the target level of 1.043. Compared to 2014, mean catch rates in 2015 were marginally improved south of Fraser Island. The NSW–QLD survey catch rate in 2015 was 20.541 crabs per ground-line, 33% above the target level of 13.972. This represented an increase in survey catch rates of about four crabs per groundline, compared to the 2014 survey. The QLD spanner crab total allowable harvest (quota) was set at 1923 t in the 2012-13 and 2013-14 fishing years, 1777 t in 2014-15 and 1631 t in 2015-16. The results from the current analysis rules indicate that the quota for the next two fishing years be retained at the base quota of 1631 t.

Queensland Spanner Crab Fishery : Commercial quota setting for June 2015 – May 2016

The Australian fishery for spanner crabs is the largest in the world, with the larger Queensland (QLD) sector’s landings primarily exported live overseas and GVP valued ~A$5 million per year. Spanner crabs are unique in that they may live up to 15 years, significantly more than blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus) and mud crabs (Scylla serrata), the two other important crab species caught in Queensland. Spanner crabs are caught using a flat net called a dilly, on which the crabs becoming entangled via the swimming legs. Quota setting rules are used to assess and adjust total allowable harvest (quota) around an agreed target harvest of 1631 t and capped at a maximum of 2000 t. The quota varies based on catch rate indicators from the commercial fishery and a fishery-independent survey from the previous two years, compared to target reference points. Quota management applies only to ‘Managed Area A’ which includes waters between Rockhampton and the New South Wales (NSW) border. This report has been prepared to inform Fisheries Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries) and stakeholders of catch trends and the estimated quota of spanner crabs in Managed Area A for the forthcoming quota period (1 June 2015–31 May 2016). The quota calculations followed the methodology developed by the crab fishery Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) between November 2007 and March 2008. The total reported spanner crab harvest was 917 t for the 2014 calendar year, almost all of which was taken from Managed Area A. In 2014, a total of 59 vessels were active in the QLD fishery, the lowest number since the peak in 1994 of 262 vessels. Recent spanner crab harvests from NSW waters have been about 125 t per year. The spanner crab Managed Area A commercial standardised catch rate averaged 0.739 kg per net-lift in 2014, 24% below the target level of 1.043. Mean catch rates declined in the commercial fishery in 2014, although the magnitude of the decreases was highest in the area north of Fraser Island. The NSW–QLD survey catch rate in 2014 was 16.849 crabs per ground-line, 22% above the target level of 13.972. This represented a decrease in survey catch rates of 0.366 crabs per ground-line, compared to the 2013 survey. The Queensland spanner crab total allowable harvest (quota) was set at 1923 t in 2012 and 2013. In 2014, the quota was calculated at the base level of 1631 t. However, given that the 2012 fisheryindependent survey was not undertaken for financial reasons, stakeholders proposed that the total allowable commercial catch (TACC) be decreased to 1777 t; a level that was halfway between the 2012/13 quota of 1923 t and the recommended base quota of 1631 t. The results from the current analysis indicate that the quota for the 2015-2016 financial year be decreased from 1777 t to the base quota of 1631 t.

Formal network behaviour analysis using model checking

In this research we modelled computer network devices to ensure their communication behaviours meet various network standards. By modelling devices as finite-state machines and examining their properties in a range of configurations, we discovered a flaw in a common network protocol and produced a technique to improve organisations' network security against data theft.

Child Abuse and Neglect: A Socio-legal Study of Mandatory Reporting in Australia - Report for the Northern Territory Government

This report presents the results of a study exploring the law and practice of mandatory reporting of child abuse and neglect in the Northern Territory. Government administrative data over a decade (2003-2012) were accessed and analysed to map trends in reporting of different types of child abuse and neglect (physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) by different reporter groups (e.g., police, teachers, doctors, nurses, vs family members, neighbours), and the outcomes of these reports (whether investigated, and whether substantiated or not). The study was funded by the Australian Government and administered through the Government of Victoria.

Child Abuse and Neglect: A Socio-legal Study of Mandatory Reporting in Australia - Report for the Queensland Government

This report presents the results of a study exploring the law and practice of mandatory reporting of child abuse and neglect in Queensland. Government administrative data over a decade (2003-2012) were accessed and analysed to map trends in reporting of different types of child abuse and neglect (physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) by different reporter groups (both mandated reporters e.g., teachers, doctors, nurses, and non-mandated reporters e.g., family members, neighbours), and the outcomes of these reports (whether investigated, and whether substantiated or not). The study was funded by the Australian Government and administered through the Government of Victoria.

Formal security analysis of the DNP3-secure authentication protocol

This thesis evaluates the security of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems, which are one of the key foundations of many critical infrastructures. Specifically, it examines one of the standardised SCADA protocols called the Distributed Network Protocol Version 3, which attempts to provide a security mechanism to ensure that messages transmitted between devices, are adequately secured from rogue applications. To achieve this, the thesis applies formal methods from theoretical computer science to formally analyse the correctness of the protocol.

Impact of wildfires and floods on property values: A before and after analysis

One of the most evident casualties of a natural disaster is the property market. The private and social costs from such events run into millions of dollars. In this paper, we use a unique dataset to examine the impact on residential house prices affected by natural disasters using a hedonic property (HP) values approach. For this purpose, we use data before and after a wildfire and floods from Rockhampton in central Queensland, Australia. The data is unique because one suburb was affected by wildfires and another was affected by floods. For the analysis, three suburbs namely Frenchville, Park Avenue and Norman Gardens are used. Frenchville was significantly affected by wildfires in the latter part of 2009 and to a lesser extent in 2012, while Park Avenue was affected by floods at the end of 2010, January 2011–2013. Norman Gardens, which was relatively unaffected, is used as a control site. This enables us to examine the before and after effects on property values in the three suburbs. The results confirm that soon after a natural disaster property prices in affected areas decrease even though the large majority of individual houses remain unaffected. Furthermore, the results indicate that the largely unaffected suburb may gain immediately after a natural disaster but this gain may disappear if natural disasters continue to occur in the area/region due to the stigma created. The results have several important policy decision and welfare implications which are briefly discussed in the paper.

Genetic analysis of chromosomal regions 2q33, 7q32 and 19q13 in multiple sclerosis susceptibility

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system (CNS) affecting 0.1-0.2% of Northern European descent population. MS is considered to be a multifactorial disease, both environment and genetics play a role in its pathogenesis. Despite several decades of intense research, the etiological and pathogenic mechanisms underlying MS remain still largely unknown and no curative treatment exists. The genetic architecture underlying MS is complex with multiple genes involved. The strongest and the best characterized predisposing genetic factors for MS are located, as in other immune-mediated diseases, in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6. In humans MHC is called human leukocyte antigen (HLA). Alleles of the HLA locus have been found to associate strongly with MS and remained for many years the only consistently replicable genetic associations. However, recently other genes located outside the MHC region have been proposed as strong candidates for susceptibility to MS in several studies. In this thesis a new genetic locus located on chromosome 7q32, interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), was identified in the susceptibility to MS. In particular, we found that common variation of the gene was associated with the disease in three different populations, Spanish, Swedish and Finnish. We also suggested a possible functional role for one of the risk alleles with impact on the expression of the IRF5 locus. Previous studies have pointed out a possible role played by chromosome 2q33 in the susceptibility to MS and other autoimmune disorders. The work described here also investigated the involvement of this chromosomal region in MS predisposition. After the detection of genetic association with 2q33 (article-1), we extended our analysis through fine-scale single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mapping to define further the contribution of this genomic area to disease pathogenesis (article-4). We found a trend (p=0.04) for association to MS with an intronic SNP located in the inducible T-cell co-stimulator (ICOS) gene, an important player in the co-stimulatory pathway of the immune system. Expression analysis of ICOS revealed a novel, previously uncharacterized, alternatively spliced isoform, lacking the extracellular domain that is needed for ligand binding. The stability of the newly-identified transcript variant and its subcellular localization were analyzed. These studies indicated that the novel isoform is stable and shows different subcellular localization as compared to full-length ICOS. The novel isoform might have a regulatory function, but further studies are required to elucidate its function. Chromosome 19q13 has been previously suggested as one of the genomic areas involved in MS predisposition. In several populations, suggestive linkage signals between MS predisposition and 19q13 have been obtained. Here, we analysed the role of allelic variation in 19q13 by family based association analysis in 782 MS families collected from Finland. In this dataset, we were not able to detect any statistically significant associations, although several previously suggested markers were included to the analysis. Replication of the previous findings on the basis of linkage disequilibrium between marker allele and disease/risk allele appears notoriously difficult because of limitations such as allelic heterogeneity. Re-sequencing based approaches may be required for elucidating the role of chromosome 19q13 with MS. This thesis has resulted in the identification of a new MS susceptibility locus (IRF5) previously associated with other inflammatory or autoimmune disorders, such as SLE. IRF5 is one of the mediators of interferons biological function. In addition to providing new insight in the possible pathogenetic pathway of the disease, this finding suggests that there might be common mechanisms between different immune-mediated disorders. Furthermore the work presented here has uncovered a novel isoform of ICOS, which may play a role in regulatory mechanisms of ICOS, an important mediator of lymphocyte activation. Further work is required to uncover its functions and possible involvement of the ICOS locus in MS susceptibility.