Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Real-World Social Cognition: Context Effects in Face and Threat Processing

As borne out by everyday social experience, social cognition is highly dependent on context, modulated by a host of factors that arise from the social environment in which we live. While streamlined laboratory research provides excellent experimental control, it can be limited to telling us about the capabilities of the brain under artificial conditions, rather than elucidating the processes that come into play in the real world. Consideration of the impact of ecologically valid contextual cues on social cognition will improve the generalizability of social neuroscience findings also to pathology, e.g., to psychiatric illnesses. To help bridge between laboratory research and social cognition as we experience it in the real world, this thesis investigates three themes: (1) increasing the naturalness of stimuli with richer contextual cues, (2) the potentially special contextual case of social cognition when two people interact directly, and (3) a third theme of experimental believability, which runs in parallel to the first two themes. Focusing on the first two themes, in work with two patient populations, we explore neural contributions to two topics in social cognition. First, we document a basic approach bias in rare patients with bilateral lesions of the amygdala. This finding is then related to the contextual factor of ambiguity, and further investigated together with other contextual cues in a sample of healthy individuals tested over the internet, finally yielding a hierarchical decision tree for social threat evaluation. Second, we demonstrate that neural processing of eye gaze in brain structures related to face, gaze, and social processing is differently modulated by the direct presence of another live person. This question is investigated using fMRI in people with autism and controls. Across a range of topics, we demonstrate that two themes of ecological validity — integration of naturalistic contextual cues, and social interaction — influence social cognition, that particular brain structures mediate this processing, and that it will be crucial to study interaction in order to understand disorders of social interaction such as autism.

Readout of a real-time hologram in bacteriorhodopsin film with high diffraction efficiency and intensity

A scheme for the readout of a hologram recorded in bacteriorhodopsin film with high diffraction efficiency and intensity is suggested and demonstrated. Two weak coherent continuous beams function as the recording beams, and a strong light pulse is used to read the real-time hologram. The width of the readout light pulse is modulated to be short compared with the erase time of the reading beam; the time space between two adjacent pulses is ensured to be longer than the time the beams take to recover the hologram, and high diffraction efficiency and intensity (similar to 11 mW/cm(2)) can be obtained. (C) 1996 Optical Society of America.

Two topics in elementary particle physics. I. Crossing as a group and elimination of exotic channels. II. Real parts of meson-nucleon forward scattering amplitudes.

I. Crossing transformations constitute a group of permutations under which the scattering amplitude is invariant. Using Mandelstem's analyticity, we decompose the amplitude into irreducible representations of this group. The usual quantum numbers, such as isospin or SU(3), are "crossing-invariant". Thus no higher symmetry is generated by crossing itself. However, elimination of certain quantum numbers in intermediate states is not crossing-invariant, and higher symmetries have to be introduced to make it possible. The current literature on exchange degeneracy is a manifestation of this statement. To exemplify application of our analysis, we show how, starting with SU(3) invariance, one can use crossing and the absence of exotic channels to derive the quark-model picture of the tensor nonet. No detailed dynamical input is used.

II. A dispersion relation calculation of the real parts of forward π^±p and K^±p scattering amplitudes is carried out under the assumption of constant total cross sections in the Serpukhov energy range. Comparison with existing experimental results as well as predictions for future high energy experiments are presented and discussed. Electromagnetic effects are found to be too small to account for the expected difference between the π^-p and π⁺p total cross sections at higher energies.

Transferência de renda e capital portador de juros: uma insidiosa captura

Esta dissertação tem como objeto de estudo a relação entre capital portador de juros e programas de transferência de renda na atualidade. O objetivo pretendido é a análise da dinâmica de organização desta forma de capital e seus desdobramentos na contemporaneidade, bem como os impactos e determinações impostas às políticas sociais em tempos de financeirização do capital. Partimos da hipótese de que os programas de transferência de renda contribuem para o processo de contra-reforma das políticas sociais, tanto pela focalização preconizada como pela priorização orçamentária, em detrimento dos demais programas e projetos da assistência social, além de permitirem a remuneração do capital portador de juros por meio dos recursos que destinam às instituições bancárias. A pesquisa realizada utilizou-se de análise documental e teórica com base na tradição marxista, buscando analisar criticamente as configurações das políticas sociais na atualidade e o papel das transferências de renda. Buscamos ainda analisar o orçamento público no âmbito federal referente à Seguridade Social e, em particular, aos programas de transferência de renda no âmbito da Assistência Social. Escolhemos estudar o orçamento da Renda Mensal Vitalícia, o Benefício de Prestação Continuada e o Programa Bolsa-Família, entre os anos de 2006 e 2009, analisando os recursos que estes destinam às instituições bancárias que operacionalizam o repasse dos benefícios. O resultado da pesquisa demonstrou que os programas de transferência de renda são estratégias de contra-reformar as políticas sociais ao incentivar o processo de assistencialização da Seguridade Social visto que apresentam um aumento contínuo e substancial no âmbito orçamentário e ao operarem com a seletividade do atendimento aos mais pobres na contramão dos princípios fundamentais presentes no texto constitucional. São ainda mecanismos de alimentação do capital portador de juros ao repassarem consideráveis somas de recursos para as instituições bancárias e inserirem a classe trabalhadora pobre no mundo das finanças.

On the added mass of sphere in a circular cylinder considering real fluid effects

An experimental method combined with boundary layer theory is given for evaluating the added mass of a sphere moving along the axis of a circular cylinder filled with water or oil. The real fluid effects are separated from ideal fluid effects.

The experimental method consists essentially of a magnetic steel sphere propelled from rest by an electromagnetic coil in which the current is accurately controlled so that it only supplies force for a short time interval which is within the laminar flow regime of the fluid. The motion of the sphere as a function of time is recorded on single frame photographs using a short-arc multiple flash lamp with accurately controlled time intervals between flashes.

A concept of the effect of boundary layer displacement on the fluid flow around a sphere is introduced to evaluate the real fluid effects on the added mass. Surprisingly accurate agreement between experiment and theory is achieved.

Aspects of the washout of salmonid eggs. 1. Observations on the physical characteristics of real and artificial eggs, their rate of fall in a water column and their pattern of settlement in an experimental channel

When salmonid redds are disrupted by spates, the displaced eggs will drift downstream. The mean distance of travel, the types of locations in which the eggs resettle and the depth of reburial of displaced eggs are not known. Investigation of these topics under field conditions presents considerable practical problems, though the use of artificial eggs might help to overcome some of them. Attempts to assess the similarities and/or differences in performance between real and artificial eggs are essential before artificial eggs can validly be used to simulate real eggs. The present report first compares the two types of egg in terms of their measurable physical characteristics (e.g. dimensions and density). The rate at which eggs fall in still water will relate to the rate at which they are likely to resettle in flowing water in the field. As the rate of fall will be influenced by a number of additional factors (e.g. shape and surface texture) which are not easily measured directly, the rates of fall of the two types of egg have been compared directly under controlled conditions. Finally, comparisons of the pattern of settlement of the two types of egg in flowing water in an experimental channel have been made. Although the work was primarily aimed at testing the value of artificial eggs as a simulation of real eggs, several side issues more directly concerned with the properties of real eggs and the likely distance of drift in natural streams have also been explored. This is the first of three reports made on this topic by the author in 1984.

Redes bipartitas: aplicación a un caso económico real

[ES]El TFG consta de dos partes: en la primera se expondrá la teoría sobre las redes que se utilizarán en la segunda parte, que consistirá en el análisis de un caso real donde se aplicarán las redes estudiadas en la primera parte.

A facultatividade da concordância: português formal real versus gramática escolar

No ensino de língua nacional, concordância é um dos tópicos em cujo aprendizado observa dificuldade por parte dos discentes, principalmente pelo grande número de regras facultativas das gramáticas, que muitas vezes não levam em conta o uso formal real da língua. Este trabalho visa a descrever esse uso, a partir da observação de um corpus do caderno opinião de jornais de grande circulação, confrontando os resultados com as prescrições da norma gramatical escolar, a fim de separar, em tais prescrições, a parte aproveitável da não coincidente com a realidade do corpus, se for o caso. Pretende-se, dessa forma, contribuir para a boa qualidade do ensino da língua portuguesa nos níveis fundamental e médio, especificamente no que se refere à concordância

On the distribution of the signs of the conjugates of the cyclotomic units in the maximal real subfield of the qth cyclotomic field, q A prime

Let F = Ǫ(ζ + ζ ^–1) be the maximal real subfield of the cyclotomic field Ǫ(ζ) where ζ is a primitive qth root of unity and q is an odd rational prime. The numbers u₁=-1, u_k=(ζ^k-ζ^-k)/(ζ-ζ^-1), k=2,…,p, p=(q-1)/2, are units in F and are called the cyclotomic units. In this thesis the sign distribution of the conjugates in F of the cyclotomic units is studied.

Let G(F/Ǫ) denote the Galoi's group of F over Ǫ, and let V denote the units in F. For each σϵ G(F/Ǫ) and μϵV define a mapping sgn_σ: V→GF(2) by sgn_σ(μ) = 1 iff σ(μ) ˂ 0 and sgn_σ(μ) = 0 iff σ(μ) ˃ 0. Let {σ₁, ... , σ_p} be a fixed ordering of G(F/Ǫ). The matrix M_q=(sgn_σj(v_i) ) , i, j = 1, ... , p is called the matrix of cyclotomic signatures. The rank of this matrix determines the sign distribution of the conjugates of the cyclotomic units. The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is associated with an ideal in the ring GF(2) [x] / (x^p+ 1) in such a way that the rank of the matrix equals the GF(2)-dimension of the ideal. It is shown that if p = (q-1)/ 2 is a prime and if 2 is a primitive root mod p, then M_q is non-singular. Also let p be arbitrary, let ℓ be a primitive root mod q and let L = {i | 0 ≤ i ≤ p-1, the least positive residue of defined by ℓⁱ mod q is greater than p}. Let H_q(x) ϵ GF(2)[x] be defined by H_q(x) = g. c. d. ((Σ xⁱ/I ϵ L) (x+1) + 1, x^p + 1). It is shown that the rank of M_q equals the difference p - degree H_q(x).

Further results are obtained by using the reciprocity theorem of class field theory. The reciprocity maps for a certain abelian extension of F and for the infinite primes in F are associated with the signs of conjugates. The product formula for the reciprocity maps is used to associate the signs of conjugates with the reciprocity maps at the primes which lie above (2). The case when (2) is a prime in F is studied in detail. Let T denote the group of totally positive units in F. Let U be the group generated by the cyclotomic units. Assume that (2) is a prime in F and that p is odd. Let F₍₂₎ denote the completion of F at (2) and let V₍₂₎ denote the units in F₍₂₎. The following statements are shown to be equivalent. 1) The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is non-singular. 2) U∩T = U². 3) U∩F²₍₂₎ = U². 4) V₍₂₎/ V₍₂₎² = ˂v₁ V₍₂₎²˃ ʘ…ʘ˂v_p V₍₂₎²˃ ʘ ˂3V₍₂₎²˃.

The rank of M_q was computed for 5≤q≤929 and the results appear in tables. On the basis of these results and additional calculations the following conjecture is made: If q and p = (q -1)/ 2 are both primes, then M_q is non-singular.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Estudo de adsorção de ácidos naftênicos a partir de correntes de hidrocarbonetos

Ácidos naftênicos correspondem à complexa mistura de ácidos carboxílicos presentes no petróleo, responsáveis diretamente pela sua acidez e pela sua corrosividade em fase líquida durante o refino. Tais compostos também estão presentes nas frações destiladas do petróleo, causando diversos problemas na qualidade final do produto. Uma possível forma de remover esses ácidos das frações destiladas é através da adsorção em materiais porosos. Contudo, os resultados até então apresentados indicam que resinas trocadoras de íons seriam os melhores adsorventes destes compostos, o que poderia aumentar o custo do processo e diminuir sua viabilidade. Neste trabalho, dois adsorventes comerciais (argila e alumina ativada) foram caracterizados por diversas técnicas físico-químicas e avaliados quanto à sua capacidade de remover os ácidos naftênicos de frações médias e pesadas de petróleo. Avaliou-se, ainda, para fins de comparação, o comportamento de ácidos naftênicos comerciais em óleos sintéticos preparados com óleo mineral. Em complementação, a corrosividade do aço carbono nos meios estudados foi também verificada. A argila apresentou maior afinidade com os ácidos naftênicos, tendo capacidade de adsorção superior e cinética de processo ligeiramente mais rápida às da alumina para as cargas sintéticas. No entanto, em virtude da maior concorrência pelos sítios de adsorção, apresentada pelos outros componentes presentes em óleos reais, observou-se uma perda na eficiência para estas amostras. Neste caso, a alumina apresentou melhores resultados. Embora ambos adsorventes tenham apresentado boa capacidade de remoção do soluto, a resina trocadora de íons ainda apresentou resultado mais eficaz para as amostras reais. Nas condições desse estudo, a taxa de corrosão do aço nas amostras sintéticas e em duas das reais não foi significativa e apenas uma delas apresentou-se corrosiva (Óleo 1). No entanto, a remoção dos ácidos naftênicos por adsorção conseguiu reduzir a taxa de corrosão neste meio em até 99%

Real-time micro-vibration measurement in sinusoidal phase-modulating interferometry

As there exist some problems with the previous laser diode (LD) real-time microvibration measurement interferometers, such as low accuracy, correction before every use, etc., in this paper, we propose a new technique to realize the real-time microvibration measurement by using the LD sinusoidal phase-modulating interferometer, analyze the measurement theory and error, and simulate the measurement accuracy. This interferometer utilizes a circuit to process the interference signal in order to obtain the vibration frequency and amplitude of the detective signal, and a computer is not necessary in it. The influence of the varying light intensity and light path difference on the measurement result can be eliminated. This technique is real-time, convenient, fast, and can enhance the measurement accuracy too. Experiments show that the repeatable measurement accuracy is less than 3.37 nm, and this interferometer can be applied to real-time microvibration measurement of the MEMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Tendência temporal do índice de massa corporal em alistados do Brasil (1980-2005)

Apesar da crescente prevalência da obesidade em países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento, há pouca evidência da associação com fatores ambientais. Objetivos: Investigar a evolução temporal do IMC em jovens alistados do sexo masculino de 18 anos no Brasil entre 1980 e 2005; identificar pontos específicos de maior variância na série temporal e comparar pontos específicos no tempo, a evolução temporal do IMC com as mudanças socioeconômicas no Brasil. Métodos: O presente estudo explorou uma série temporal de 26 anos em homens brasileiros que se alistaram no período de 1980 a 2005. A amostra compreendeu cerca de 35-40% de todos os jovens brasileiros de 18 anos de idade. O peso corporal e a estatura foram obtidos no momento do exame médico durante o alistamento militar. Todas as mensurações antropométricas foram realizadas por pessoal especializado e treinado. As prevalências do sobrepeso e da obesidade foram calculadas com intervalos de confiança de 95%. Com a finalidade de testar a presença de heterocedasticidade na série do IMC, realizou-se o teste de Multiplicador de Lagrange (LM). Para os pontos no tempo, com oscilações acima da média do IMC, variáveis dummies foram testadas utilizando-se o modelo ARCH (Autoregressivo de Heterocedasticidade Condicionada), com um nível de significância de p <0,05. Para aqueles pontos no tempo com oscilações acima da média do IMC (anos de 1985, 1994 e 2000), variáveis dummy foram incluídos sob a hipótese foi de que a taxa de crescimento do IMC não fosse a mesma ao longo da série temporal. Para as possíveis explicações para os aumentos bruscos na curva do IMC, foram consideradas as alterações nos principais indicadores econômicos do Brasil (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada). Os fatores econômicos analisados foram: taxa de inflação anual, produção de alimentos, pobreza (%), o consumo de refrigerantes e o rendimento médio anual. Resultados: A prevalência de sobrepeso também passou de 4,5%, em 1980, para 12,5%, em 2005, um aumento de 2,6 vezes, enquanto a prevalência de obesidade aumentou de 0,5%, em 1980, para 1,9%, em 2005, um aumento de quase 300%, mas por comparação internacional estão abaixo da média. Particularmente em 1985-6 e 1994-5, houve um aumento acentuado e significativo do IMC. Em 1985-6, a média do IMC aumentou de 21,4 kg/m2 para 21,5 kg/m2 e, em 1994-5, a média do IMC médio aumentou de 21,7 kg/m2 para 21,9 kg/m2. Nesses dois pontos (1985-1986 e 1994-1995) ocorreram logo após duas grandes mudanças políticas econômicas que aumentaram o poder de compra da população. Em 1985-6, as mudanças foram principalmente relacionadas a fatores econômicos, tais como: a redução do nível de desigualdade social; aumento da renda familiar; redução da pobreza; o controle da inflação; aumento do tempo assistindo televisão e aumento do consumo de alimentos. Em 1994-5, além das mudanças no poder de compra, houve uma modificação na atividade física obrigatória nas escolas. Conclusão: O presente estudo mostrou um aumento abrupto da obesidade na população de homens jovens no Brasil em duas ocasiões durante esta série temporal (anos de 1985-6 e 1994-5), quando uma possível redução no gasto calórico e aumento do consumo de alimentos da população foram observados.