A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

Acrylamide in potato crisps prepared from 20 UK-grown varieties: effects of variety and tuber storage time

Twenty varieties of field-grown potato were stored for 2 months and 6 months at 8 °C. Mean acrylamide contents in crisps prepared from all varieties at both storage times ranged from 131 μg per kg in Verdi to 5360 μg per kg in Pentland Dell. In contrast to previous studies, the longer storage period did not affect acrylamide formation significantly for most varieties, the exceptions being Innovator, where acrylamide formation increased, and Saturna, where it decreased. Four of the five varieties designated as suitable for crisping produced crisps with acrylamide levels below the European Commission indicative value of 1000 μg per kg (Saturna, Lady Rosetta, Lady Claire, and Verdi); the exception was Hermes. Two varieties more often used for French fries, Markies and Fontane, also produced crisps with less than 1000 μg per kg acrylamide. Correlations between acrylamide, its precursors and crisp colour are described, and the implications of the results for production of potato crisps are discussed.

Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: stratospheric and global circulation changes

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme ‘Maunder Minimum like’ grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference RCP8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (~1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.4 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (~−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern hemisphere (NH) winter-time, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ~3-4 m s1, with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian low at the surface and an increase in blocking over northern Europe and the north Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern hemisphere (SH) midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

Solar stormwatch: tracking solar eruptions

The Solar Stormwatch team reviews progress and prospects for this highly effective citizen-science project focused on the Sun.

Use of TD-GC-TOF-MS to assess volatile composition during post harvest storage in seven accessions of rocket salad (Eruca sativa)

An important step in breeding for nutritionally enhanced varieties is determining the effects of the post-harvest supply chain on phytochemicals and the changes in VOCs produced over time. TD- GC-TOF-MS was used and a technique for the extraction of VOCs from the headspace using portable tubes is described. Forty-two compounds were detected; 39 were identified by comparison to NIST libraries. Thirty-five compounds had not been previously reported in Eruca sativa. Seven accessions were assessed for changes in headspace VOCs over 7 days. Relative amounts of VOCs across 3 time points were significantly different - isothiocyanate-containing molecules being abundant on 'Day 0'. Each accession showed differences in proportions/types of volatiles produced on each day. PCA revealed a separation of VOC profiles according to the day of sampling. Changes in VOC profiles over time could provide a tool for assessment of shelf-life.

Design of a unified data with business rules storage model for OLTP and OLAP systems

This paper reviews the literature concerning the practice of using Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems to recall information stored by Online Transactional Processing (OLTP) systems. Such a review provides a basis for discussion on the need for the information that are recalled through OLAP systems to maintain the contexts of transactions with the data captured by the respective OLTP system. The paper observes an industry trend involving the use of OLTP systems to process information into data, which are then stored in databases without the business rules that were used to process information and data stored in OLTP databases without associated business rules. This includes the necessitation of a practice, whereby, sets of business rules are used to extract, cleanse, transform and load data from disparate OLTP systems into OLAP databases to support the requirements for complex reporting and analytics. These sets of business rules are usually not the same as business rules used to capture data in particular OLTP systems. The paper argues that, differences between the business rules used to interpret these same data sets, risk gaps in semantics between information captured by OLTP systems and information recalled through OLAP systems. Literature concerning the modeling of business transaction information as facts with context as part of the modelling of information systems were reviewed to identify design trends that are contributing to the design quality of OLTP and OLAP systems. The paper then argues that; the quality of OLTP and OLAP systems design has a critical dependency on the capture of facts with associated context, encoding facts with contexts into data with business rules, storage and sourcing of data with business rules, decoding data with business rules into the facts with the context and recall of facts with associated contexts. The paper proposes UBIRQ, a design model to aid the co-design of data with business rules storage for OLTP and OLAP purposes. The proposed design model provides the opportunity for the implementation and use of multi-purpose databases, and business rules stores for OLTP and OLAP systems. Such implementations would enable the use of OLTP systems to record and store data with executions of business rules, which will allow for the use of OLTP and OLAP systems to query data with business rules used to capture the data. Thereby ensuring information recalled via OLAP systems preserves the contexts of transactions as per the data captured by the respective OLTP system.

Stability of probiotic Lactobacillus plantarum in dry microcapsules under accelerated storage conditions

This study investigated the stability of freeze dried and fluid bed dried alginate microcapsules coated with chitosan containing model probiotic bacteria, Lactobacillus plantarum, during storage for up to 45 days at different water activities (0.11, 0.23, 0.40 and 0.70) and temperatures (4, 30 and 37 °C). The loss in cell viability was around 0.8 log in the case of fluid bed drying and around 1.3 in the case of freeze drying, with the former method resulting in dried capsules of smaller size (~ 1 mm vs 1.3 mm), more irregular shape, and with a rougher surface. In both cases, the water activity and water content were less than 0.25 and 10% w/w, respectively, which favours high storage stability. The storage stability studies demonstrated that as the water activity and temperature decreased the survival of the dried encapsulated cells increased. Considerably better survival was observed for fluid bed dried encapsulated cells compared to freeze dried encapsulated cells and freeze dried free cells with 10% sucrose (control), and in some cases, e.g. at 4 and 30 °C at water activities of 0.11, 0.23 and 0.40, there was more than 1 log difference after 45 days, with concentrations higher than 108 CFU/g after 45 days of storage. The results indicate that fluid bed drying is an effective and efficient manufacturing method to produce probiotic containing capsules with enhanced storage stability.

A comparative value of electricity storage within GB market mechanisms

This paper investigates the value of a generic storage system within two GB market mechanisms and one ancillary service provision: the wholesale power market, the Balancing Mechanism and Firm Frequency Response (FFR). Three models are evaluated under perfect foresight and fixed horizon which is subsequently extended to explore the impact of a longer foresight on market revenues. The results show that comparatively, the balancing mechanism represents the highest source of potential revenues followed by the wholesale power market and Firm Frequency Response respectively. Longer horizons show diminishing returns, with the 1 day horizon providing the vast majority of total revenues. However storage power capacity utilization benefits from such long horizons. These results could imply that short horizons are very effective in capturing revenues in both the wholesale market and balancing mechanism whereas sizing of a storage system should take into consideration horizon foresight and accuracy for greater benefit.

Reforesting degraded agricultural landscapes with Eucalypts: effects on carbon storage and soil fertility after 26years

In the Western Australian wheatbelt, the restoration of native eucalypt forests for managing degraded agricultural landscapes is a critical part of managing dryland salinity and rebuilding biodiversity. Such reforestation will also sequester carbon. Whereas most investigative emphasis has been on carbon stored in biomass, the effects of reforestation on soil organic carbon (SOC) stores and fertility are not known. Two 26 year old reforestation experiments with four Eucalyptus species (E. cladocalyx var nana, E. occidentalis, E. sargentii and E. wandoo) were compared with agricultural sites (Field). SOC stores (to 0.3 m depth) ranged between 33 and 55 Mg ha−1, with no statistically significant differences between tree species and adjacent farmland. Farming comprised crop and pasture rotations. In contrast, the reforested plots contained additional carbon in the tree biomass (23–60 Mg ha−1) and litter (19–34 Mg ha−1), with the greatest litter accumulation associated with E. sargentii. Litter represented between 29 and 56% of the biomass carbon and the protection or utilization of this litter in fire-prone, semi-arid farmland will be an important component of carbon management. Exch-Na and Exch-Mg accumulated under E. sargentii and E. occidentalis at one site. The results raise questions about the conclusions of SOC sequestration studies following reforestation based on limited sampling and reiterate the importance of considering litter in reforestation carbon accounts.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

Electronic structure of porphyrin-based metal-organic frameworks and their suitability for solar fuel production photocatalysis

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) can be exceptionally good catalytic materials thanks to the presence of active metal centres and a porous structure that is advantageous for molecular adsorption and confinement. We present here a first-principles investigation of the electronic structure of a family of MOFs based on porphyrins connected through phenyl-carboxyl ligands and AlOH species, in order to assess their suitability for the photocatalysis of fuel production reactions using sunlight. We consider structures with protonated porphyrins and those with the protons exchanged with late 3d metal cations (Fe2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+), a process that we find to be thermodynamically favorable from aqueous solution for all these metals. Our band structure calculations, based on an accurate screened hybrid functional, reveal that the bandgaps are in a favorable range (2.0 to 2.6 eV) for efficient adsorption of solar light. Furthermore, by approximating the vacuum level to the pore center potential, we provide the alignment of the MOFs’ band edges with the redox potentials for water splitting and carbon dioxide reduction, and show that the structures studied here have band edges positions suitable for these reactions at neutral pH.