Understanding inter-satellite biases of microwave humidity sounders using global simultaneous nadir overpasses

Simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) of polar-orbiting satellites are most frequent in polar areas but can occur at any latitude when the equatorial crossing times of the satellites become close owing to orbital drift. We use global SNOs of polar orbiting satellites to evaluate the intercalibration of microwave humidity sounders from the more frequent high-latitude SNOs. We have found based on sensitivity analyses that optimal distance and time thresholds for defining collocations are pixel centers less than 5 km apart and time differences less than 300 s. These stringent collocation criteria reduce the impact of highly variable surface or atmospheric conditions on the estimated biases. Uncertainties in the estimated biases are dominated by the combined radiometric noise of the instrument pair. The effects of frequency changes between different versions of the humidity sounders depend on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. There are significant scene radiance and thus latitude dependencies in the estimated biases and this has to taken into account while intercalibrating microwave humidity sounders. Therefore the results obtained using polar SNOs will not be representative for moist regions, necessitating the use of global collocations for reliable intercalibration.

A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

Conditioning and preconditioning of the optimal state estimation problem

Optimal state estimation is a method that requires minimising a weighted, nonlinear, least-squares objective function in order to obtain the best estimate of the current state of a dynamical system. Often the minimisation is non-trivial due to the large scale of the problem, the relative sparsity of the observations and the nonlinearity of the objective function. To simplify the problem the solution is often found via a sequence of linearised objective functions. The condition number of the Hessian of the linearised problem is an important indicator of the convergence rate of the minimisation and the expected accuracy of the solution. In the standard formulation the convergence is slow, indicating an ill-conditioned objective function. A transformation to different variables is often used to ameliorate the conditioning of the Hessian by changing, or preconditioning, the Hessian. There is only sparse information in the literature for describing the causes of ill-conditioning of the optimal state estimation problem and explaining the effect of preconditioning on the condition number. This paper derives descriptive theoretical bounds on the condition number of both the unpreconditioned and preconditioned system in order to better understand the conditioning of the problem. We use these bounds to explain why the standard objective function is often ill-conditioned and why a standard preconditioning reduces the condition number. We also use the bounds on the preconditioned Hessian to understand the main factors that affect the conditioning of the system. We illustrate the results with simple numerical experiments.

Short communication: estimation of the financial benefit of using Jersey milk at different inclusion rates for Cheddar cheese production using partial budgeting

Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

CO2 emission estimation in the urban environment: measurement of the CO2 storage term

Eddy covariance has been used in urban areas to evaluate the net exchange of CO2 between the surface and the atmosphere. Typically, only the vertical flux is measured at a height 2–3 times that of the local roughness elements; however, under conditions of relatively low instability, CO2 may accumulate in the airspace below the measurement height. This can result in inaccurate emissions estimates if the accumulated CO2 drains away or is flushed upwards during thermal expansion of the boundary layer. Some studies apply a single height storage correction; however, this requires the assumption that the response of the CO2 concentration profile to forcing is constant with height. Here a full seasonal cycle (7th June 2012 to 3rd June 2013) of single height CO2 storage data calculated from concentrations measured at 10 Hz by open path gas analyser are compared to a data set calculated from a concurrent switched vertical profile measured (2 Hz, closed path gas analyser) at 10 heights within and above a street canyon in central London. The assumption required for the former storage determination is shown to be invalid. For approximately regular street canyons at least one other measurement is required. Continuous measurements at fewer locations are shown to be preferable to a spatially dense, switched profile, as temporal interpolation is ineffective. The majority of the spectral energy of the CO2 storage time series was found to be between 0.001 and 0.2 Hz (500 and 5 s respectively); however, sampling frequencies of 2 Hz and below still result in significantly lower CO2 storage values. An empirical method of correcting CO2 storage values from under-sampled time series is proposed.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

Sparse density estimation on multinomial manifold combining local component analysis

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion combining local component analysis for the finite mixture model. We start with a Parzen window estimator which has the Gaussian kernels with a common covariance matrix, the local component analysis is initially applied to find the covariance matrix using expectation maximization algorithm. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of a finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we then use the well-known Riemannian trust-region algorithm to find the set of sparse mixing coefficients. The first and second order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are utilized in the Riemannian trust-region algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

Simultaneous activities in the household and residential electricity demand in Spain

Recent research and policy studies on the low-carbon future highlight the importance of flexible electricity demand. This might be problematic particularly for residential electricity demand, which is related to simultaneous consumers’ practices in the household. This paper analyses issues of simultaneity in residential electricity demand in Spain. It makes use of the 2011 Spanish Time Use Survey data with comparisons from the previous Spanish Time Use Survey and the Harmonised European Time Use Surveys. Findings show that media activities are associated the highest levels of continuity and simultaneity, particularly in the early and late parts of the evening during weekdays.

Gaze stabilization testing: The efficiency and test-retest reliability of user operated control versus the parameter estimation (PEST) algorithm

The primary objective of this research study is to determine which form of testing, the PEST algorithm or an operator-controlled condition is most accurate and time efficient for administration of the gaze stabilization test

The SARS algorithm: detrending CoRoT light curves with Sysrem using simultaneous external parameters

Surveys for exoplanetary transits are usually limited not by photon noise but rather by the amount of red noise in their data. In particular, although the CoRoT space-based survey data are being carefully scrutinized, significant new sources of systematic noises are still being discovered. Recently, a magnitude-dependant systematic effect was discovered in the CoRoT data by Mazeh et al. and a phenomenological correction was proposed. Here we tie the observed effect to a particular type of effect, and in the process generalize the popular Sysrem algorithm to include external parameters in a simultaneous solution with the unknown effects. We show that a post-processing scheme based on this algorithm performs well and indeed allows for the detection of new transit-like signals that were not previously detected.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Tyrosine hydroxylase immunoreactivity as indicator of sympathetic activity: simultaneous evaluation in different tissues of hypertensive rats

Burgi K, Cavalleri MT, Alves AS, Britto LRG, Antunes VR, Michelini LC. Tyrosine hydroxylase immunoreactivity as indicator of sympathetic activity: simultaneous evaluation in different tissues of hypertensive rats. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 300: R264-R271, 2011. First published December 9, 2010; doi: 10.1152/ajpregu.00687.2009.-Vasomotor control by the sympathetic nervous system presents substantial heterogeneity within different tissues, providing appropriate homeostatic responses to maintain basal/stimulated cardiovascular function both at normal and pathological conditions. The availability of a reproducible technique for simultaneous measurement of sympathetic drive to different tissues is of great interest to uncover regional patterns of sympathetic nerve activity (SNA). We propose the association of tyrosine hydroxylase immunoreactivity (THir) with image analysis to quantify norepinephrine (NE) content within nerve terminals in arteries/arterioles as a good index for regional sympathetic outflow. THir was measured in fixed arterioles of kidney, heart, and skeletal muscle of WistarKyoto rats (WKY) and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) (123 +/- 2 and 181 +/- 4 mmHg, 300 +/- 8 and 352 +/- 8 beats/min, respectively). There was a differential THir distribution in both groups: higher THir was observed in the kidney and skeletal muscle (similar to 3-4-fold vs. heart arterioles) of WKY; in SHR, THir was increased in the kidney and heart (2.4- and 5.3-fold vs. WKY, respectively) with no change in the skeletal muscle arterioles. Observed THir changes were confirmed by either: 1) determination of NE content (high-performance liquid chromatography) in fresh tissues (SHR vs. WKY): +34% and +17% in kidney and heart, respectively, with no change in the skeletal muscle; 2) direct recording of renal (RSNA) and lumbar SNA (LSNA) in anesthetized rats, showing increased RSNA but unchanged LSNA in SHR vs. WKY. THir in skeletal muscle arterioles, NE content in femoral artery, and LSNA were simultaneously reduced by exercise training in the WKY group. Results indicate that THir is a valuable technique to simultaneously evaluate regional patterns of sympathetic activity.

Differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani in the isolated rat muscle: a multiple comparison study using simultaneous confidence intervals

In the present work a comparative quantitative evaluation of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani was performed, encompassing: atracurium, cisatracurium, mivacurium, pancuronium, rocuronium and vecuronium. The sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat was used, in vitro. Twitches were evoked at 0.1 Hz and tetani at 50 Hz. The differential effects of the studied compounds on twitches and tetani were statistically compared using simultaneous confidence intervals for the ratios between mean IC(50) for the block of twitches and mean IC(50) for the block of tetani. The results of ratios of mean IC(50) together with their corresponding 95% simultaneous confidence intervals were: vecuronium: 2.5 (1.8-3.5); mivacurium: 3.8 (3.0-4.9); pancuronium: 3.9 (2.0-7.6); rocuronium: 6.1 (3.8-9.9); atracurium: 9.0 (6.4-12.6); cisatracurium: 13.1 (6.0-28.4). Using the criteria that neuromuscular blockers displaying disjunct confidence intervals for the ratios of mean IC(50) differ statistically with regard to differential effects on twitches and tetani, significant differences in ratios of IC(50) were detected in the following cases: vecuronium vs. rocuronium, vs. atracurium and vs. cisatracurium and mivacurium vs: cisatracurium and vs. atracurium. The results show that the magnitude of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani, as evaluated in the present work in the form of ratios of mean IC(50), does not depend on the chemical structure (comparing steroidal and isoquinolinic compounds), but seems to depend on differential pre- and post-synaptic effects of the compounds. It is also suggested that the greater the ability of a compound to block twitches and tetani in a differential manner, the safer is the compound from the clinical anesthesiology viewpoint.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.