La science et l'hypothèse / Henri Poincaré

Collection : Les sillons littéraires ; 7

Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

Indicadores de calidad de la producción en la Web of Science de diez profesores del Área de Personalidad, Evaluación y Tratamiento Psicológico: aportaciones adicionales al estudio de Olivas-Ávila y Musi-Lechuga

Los rankings de productividad científica resultan cada vez más relevantes, tanto a nivel individual como institucional. Garantizar que se basan en información confiable y exhaustiva es, por tanto, importante. Este estudio indica que la posición de los individuos en esa clase de ranking puede cambiar sustancialmente cuando se consideran diversos indicadores bibliométricos internacionalmente reconocidos. Se usa, como ilustración, el caso de los diez profesores del área de ‘Personalidad, Evaluación y Tratamiento Psicológico’ consignados en el reciente análisis de Olivas-Ávila y Musi-Lechuga (Psicothema 2010. Vol. 22, nº 4, pp. 909-916).

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for source inference in forensic science: a critical review

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been used in numerous fields of forensic science in a source inference perspective. This review compiles the studies published on the application of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to the traditional fields of forensic science so far. It completes the review of Benson et al. [1] and synthesises the extent of knowledge already gathered in the following fields: illicit drugs, flammable liquids, human provenancing, microtraces, explosives and other specific materials (packaging tapes, safety matches, plastics, etc.). For each field, a discussion assesses the state of science and highlights the relevance of the information in a forensic context. Through the different discussions which mark out the review, the potential and limitations of IRMS, as well as the needs and challenges of future studies are emphasized. The paper elicits the various dimensions of the source which can be obtained from the isotope information and demonstrates the transversal nature of IRMS as a tool for source inference.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

'Making Science Understandable'. Divulgació científica i mediació editorial: el cas de The Wisdom of the Body de Walter B. Cannon (1871-1945)

The present paper aims at an historical reconstruction, in the framework of the publishing industry in the years between the two World Wars, of the role played by the publisher William W. Norton in the genesis, published in 1932, and new edition in 1938, of Walter B. Cannon"s book The Wisdom of the Body. With the analysis of this case study, we aimed at contributing to the current criticism of the «dominant view», which tries, in an uncritical manner, that scientific popularization follows an ineluctable, continuous and linear evolution.