Testing the TASP: An Experimental Investigation of Learning in Games with Unstable Equilibria

We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

Testing for Proportional Hazards with Unrestricted Univariate Unobserved Heterogeneity

We develop tests of the proportional hazards assumption, with respect to a continuous covariate, in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity with unknown distribution at the individual observation level. The proposed tests are specially powerful against ordered alternatives useful for modeling non-proportional hazards situations. By contrast to the case when the heterogeneity distribution is known up to …nite dimensional parameters, the null hypothesis for the current problem is similar to a test for absence of covariate dependence. However, the two testing problems di¤er in the nature of relevant alternative hypotheses. We develop tests for both the problems against ordered alternatives. Small sample performance and an application to real data highlight the usefulness of the framework and methodology.

A New Test of the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis: Bounds Approach and Structural Breaks

We test the real interest rate parity hypothesis using data for the G7 countries over the period 1970-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we utilize the ARDL bounds approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) which allows us to overcome uncertainty about the order of integration of real interest rates. Second, we test for structural breaks in the underlying relationship using the multiple structural breaks test of Bai and Perron (1998, 2003). Our results indicate significant parameter instability and suggest that, despite the advances in economic and financial integration, real interest rate parity has not fully recovered from a breakdown in the 1980s.

Structural Interactions in Spatial Panels

Until recently, much effort has been devoted to the estimation of panel data regression models without adequate attention being paid to the drivers of diffusion and interaction across cross section and spatial units. We discuss some new methodologies in this emerging area and demonstrate their use in measurement and inferences on cross section and spatial interactions. Specifically, we highlight the important distinction between spatial dependence driven by unobserved common factors and those based on a spatial weights matrix. We argue that, purely factor driven models of spatial dependence may be somewhat inadequate because of their connection with the exchangeability assumption. Limitations and potential enhancements of the existing methods are discussed, and several directions for new research are highlighted.

NEW METHODS FOR DETECTION, SUSCEPTIBILITY TESTING AND BIOFILM ERADICATION OF DIFFICULT ORGANISMS

Aujourd'hui, les problèmes des maladies infectieuses concernent l'émergence d'infections difficiles à traiter, telles que les infections associées aux implants et les infections fongiques invasives chez les patients immunodéprimés. L'objectif de cette thèse était de développer des stratégies pour l'éradication des biofilms bactériens (partie 1), ainsi que d'étudier des méthodes innovantes pour la détection microbienne, pour l'établissement de nouveaux tests de sensibilité (partie 2). Le traitement des infections associées aux implants est difficile car les biofilms bactériens peuvent résister à des niveaux élevés d'antibiotiques. A ce jour, il n'y a pas de traitement optimal défini contre des infections causées par des bactéries de prévalence moindre telles que Enterococcus faecalis ou Propionibacterium acnés. Dans un premier temps, nous avons démontré une excellente activité in vitro de la gentamicine sur une souche de E. faecalis en phase stationnaire de croissance Nous avons ensuite confirmé l'activité de la gentamicine sur un biofilm précoce en modèle expérimental animal à corps étranger avec un taux de guérison de 50%. De plus, les courbes de bactéricidie ainsi que les résultats de calorimétrie ont prouvé que l'ajout de gentamicine améliorait l'activité in vitro de la daptomycine, ainsi que celle de la vancomycine. In vivo, le schéma thérapeutique le plus efficace était l'association daptomycine/gentamicine avec un taux de guérison de 55%. En établissant une nouvelle méthode pour l'évaluation de l'activité des antimicrobiens vis-à-vis de micro-organismes en biofilm, nous avons démontré que le meilleur antibiotique actif sur les biofilms à P. acnés était la rifampicine, suivi par la penicilline G, la daptomycine et la ceftriaxone. Les études conduites en modèle expérimental animal ont confirmé l'activité de la rifampicine seule avec un taux de guérison 36%. Le meilleur schéma thérapeutique était au final l'association rifampicine/daptomycine avec un taux de guérison 63%. Les associations de rifampicine avec la vancomycine ou la levofloxacine présentaient des taux de guérisons respectivement de 46% et 25%. Nous avons ensuite étudié l'émergence in vitro de la résistance à la rifampicine chez P. acnés. Nous avons observé un taux de mutations de 10"9. La caractérisation moléculaire de la résistance chez les mutant-résistants a mis en évidence l'implication de 5 mutations ponctuelles dans les domaines I et II du gène rpoB. Ce type de mutations a déjà été décrit au préalable chez d'autres espèces bactériennes, corroborant ainsi la validité de nos résultats. La deuxième partie de cette thèse décrit une nouvelle méthode d'évaluation de l'efficacité des antifongiques basée sur des mesures de microcalorimétrie isotherme. En utilisant un microcalorimètre, la chaleur produite par la croissance microbienne peut être-mesurée en temps réel, très précisément. Nous avons évalué l'activité de l'amphotéricine B, des triazolés et des échinocandines sur différentes souches de Aspergillus spp. par microcalorimétrie. La présence d'amphotéricine Β ou de triazole retardait la production de chaleur de manière concentration-dépendante. En revanche, pour les échinochandines, seule une diminution le pic de « flux de chaleur » a été observé. La concordance entre la concentration minimale inhibitrice de chaleur (CMIC) et la CMI ou CEM (définie par CLSI M38A), avec une marge de 2 dilutions, était de 90% pour l'amphotéricine B, 100% pour le voriconazole, 90% pour le pozoconazole et 70% pour la caspofongine. La méthode a été utilisée pour définir la sensibilité aux antifongiques pour d'autres types de champignons filamenteux. Par détermination microcalorimétrique, l'amphotéricine B s'est avéré être l'agent le plus actif contre les Mucorales et les Fusarium spp.. et le voriconazole le plus actif contre les Scedosporium spp. Finalement, nous avons évalué l'activité d'associations d'antifongiques vis-à-vis de Aspergillus spp. Une meilleure activité antifongique était retrouvée avec l'amphotéricine B ou le voriconazole lorsque ces derniers étaient associés aux échinocandines vis-à-vis de A. fumigatus. L'association échinocandine/amphotéricine B a démontré une activité antifongique synergique vis-à-vis de A. terreus, contrairement à l'association échinocandine/voriconazole qui ne démontrait aucune amélioration significative de l'activité antifongique. - The diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases are today increasingly challenged by the emergence of difficult-to-manage situations, such as infections associated with medical devices and invasive fungal infections, especially in immunocompromised patients. The aim of this thesis was to address these challenges by developing new strategies for eradication of biofilms of difficult-to-treat microorganisms (treatment, part 1) and investigating innovative methods for microbial detection and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (diagnosis, part 2). The first part of the thesis investigates antimicrobial treatment strategies for infections caused by two less investigated microorganisms, Enterococcus faecalis and Propionibacterium acnes, which are important pathogens causing implant-associated infections. The treatment of implant-associated infections is difficult in general due to reduced susceptibility of bacteria when present in biofilms. We demonstrated an excellent in vitro activity of gentamicin against E. faecalis in stationary growth- phase and were able to confirm the activity against "young" biofilms (3 hours) in an experimental foreign-body infection model (cure rate 50%). The addition of gentamicin improved the activity of daptomycin and vancomycin in vitro, as determined by time-kill curves and microcalorimetry. In vivo, the most efficient combination regimen was daptomycin plus gentamicin (cure rate 55%). Despite a short duration of infection, the cure rates were low, highlighting that enterococcal biofilms remain difficult to treat despite administration of newer antibiotics, such as daptomycin. By establishing a novel in vitro assay for evaluation of anti-biofilm activity (microcalorimetry), we demonstrated that rifampin was the most active antimicrobial against P. acnes biofilms, followed by penicillin G, daptomycin and ceftriaxone. In animal studies we confirmed the anti-biofilm activity of rifampin (cure rate 36% when administered alone), as well as in combination with daptomycin (cure rate 63%), whereas in combination with vancomycin or levofloxacin it showed lower cure rates (46% and 25%, respectively). We further investigated the emergence of rifampin resistance in P. acnes in vitro. Rifampin resistance progressively emerged during exposure to rifampin, if the bacterial concentration was high (108 cfu/ml) with a mutation rate of 10"9. In resistant isolates, five point mutations of the rpoB gene were found in cluster I and II, as previously described for staphylococci and other bacterial species. The second part of the thesis describes a novel real-time method for evaluation of antifungals against molds, based on measurements of the growth-related heat production by isothermal microcalorimetry. Current methods for evaluation of antifungal agents against molds, have several limitations, especially when combinations of antifungals are investigated. We evaluated the activity of amphotericin B, triazoles (voriconazole, posaconazole) and echinocandins (caspofungin and anidulafungin) against Aspergillus spp. by microcalorimetry. The presence of amphotericin Β or a triazole delayed the heat production in a concentration-dependent manner and the minimal heat inhibition concentration (MHIC) was determined as the lowest concentration inhibiting 50% of the heat produced at 48 h. Due to the different mechanism of action echinocandins, the MHIC for this antifungal class was determined as the lowest concentration lowering the heat-flow peak with 50%. Agreement within two 2-fold dilutions between MHIC and MIC or MEC (determined by CLSI M38A) was 90% for amphotericin B, 100% for voriconazole, 90% for posaconazole and 70% for caspofungin. We further evaluated our assay for antifungal susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin Β was the most active agent against Mucorales and Fusarium spp., whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. Finally, we evaluated the activity of antifungal combinations against Aspergillus spp. Against A. jumigatus, an improved activity of amphotericin Β and voriconazole was observed when combined with an echinocandin. Against A. terreus, an echinocandin showed a synergistic activity with amphotericin B, whereas in combination with voriconazole, no considerable improved activity was observed.

Disentangling the effects of key innovations on the diversification of Bromelioideae (bromeliaceae).

The evolution of key innovations, novel traits that promote diversification, is often seen as major driver for the unequal distribution of species richness within the tree of life. In this study, we aim to determine the factors underlying the extraordinary radiation of the subfamily Bromelioideae, one of the most diverse clades among the neotropical plant family Bromeliaceae. Based on an extended molecular phylogenetic data set, we examine the effect of two putative key innovations, that is, the Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and the water-impounding tank, on speciation and extinction rates. To this aim, we develop a novel Bayesian implementation of the phylogenetic comparative method, binary state speciation and extinction, which enables hypotheses testing by Bayes factors and accommodates the uncertainty on model selection by Bayesian model averaging. Both CAM and tank habit were found to correlate with increased net diversification, thus fulfilling the criteria for key innovations. Our analyses further revealed that CAM photosynthesis is correlated with a twofold increase in speciation rate, whereas the evolution of the tank had primarily an effect on extinction rates that were found five times lower in tank-forming lineages compared to tank-less clades. These differences are discussed in the light of biogeography, ecology, and past climate change.

Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes

The large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Estimation of the Spatial Weights Matrix under Structural Constraints

While estimates of models with spatial interaction are very sensitive to the choice of spatial weights, considerable uncertainty surrounds de nition of spatial weights in most studies with cross-section dependence. We show that, in the spatial error model the spatial weights matrix is only partially identi ed, and is fully identifi ed under the structural constraint of symmetry. For the spatial error model, we propose a new methodology for estimation of spatial weights under the assumption of symmetric spatial weights, with extensions to other important spatial models. The methodology is applied to regional housing markets in the UK, providing an estimated spatial weights matrix that generates several new hypotheses about the economic and socio-cultural drivers of spatial di¤usion in housing demand.

Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models

This paper examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of three monetary fundamental models of exchange rates and compares their out-of-sample performance to that of a simple Random Walk model. Using a data-set consisting of five currencies at monthly frequency over the period January 1980 to December 2009 and a battery of newly developed performance measures, the paper shows that monetary models do better (in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting) than a simple Random Walk model.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Structured RNAs in the ENCODE selected regions of the human genome.

Functional RNA structures play an important role both in the context of noncoding RNA transcripts as well as regulatory elements in mRNAs. Here we present a computational study to detect functional RNA structures within the ENCODE regions of the human genome. Since structural RNAs in general lack characteristic signals in primary sequence, comparative approaches evaluating evolutionary conservation of structures are most promising. We have used three recently introduced programs based on either phylogenetic-stochastic context-free grammar (EvoFold) or energy directed folding (RNAz and AlifoldZ), yielding several thousand candidate structures (corresponding to approximately 2.7% of the ENCODE regions). EvoFold has its highest sensitivity in highly conserved and relatively AU-rich regions, while RNAz favors slightly GC-rich regions, resulting in a relatively small overlap between methods. Comparison with the GENCODE annotation points to functional RNAs in all genomic contexts, with a slightly increased density in 3'-UTRs. While we estimate a significant false discovery rate of approximately 50%-70% many of the predictions can be further substantiated by additional criteria: 248 loci are predicted by both RNAz and EvoFold, and an additional 239 RNAz or EvoFold predictions are supported by the (more stringent) AlifoldZ algorithm. Five hundred seventy RNAz structure predictions fall into regions that show signs of selection pressure also on the sequence level (i.e., conserved elements). More than 700 predictions overlap with noncoding transcripts detected by oligonucleotide tiling arrays. One hundred seventy-five selected candidates were tested by RT-PCR in six tissues, and expression could be verified in 43 cases (24.6%).