A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth

The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (using fixed and random effects) for the real exchange rate, with different model specifications, in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We also provide an alternative set of estimates of real exchange rate misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The variables used in our real exchange rate models are: real per capita GDP; net foreign assets; terms of trade and government consumption. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated) real exchange rate helps (harms) long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

The Role of Institutions in Cross-Section Income and Panel Data Growth Models: A Deeper Investigation on the Weakness and Proliferation of Instruments

This paper investigates the role of institutions in determining per capita income levels and growth. It contributes to the empirical literature by using different variables as proxies for institutions and by developing a deeper analysis of the issues arising from the use of weak and too many instruments in per capita income and growth regressions. The cross-section estimation suggests that institutions seem to matter, regardless if they are the only explanatory variable or are combined with geographical and integration variables, although most models suffer from the issue of weak instruments. The results from the growth models provides some interesting results: there is mixed evidence on the role of institutions and such evidence is more likely to be associated with law and order and investment profile; government spending is an important policy variable; collapsing the number of instruments results in fewer significant coefficients for institutions.

International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data

We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve using an international dataset of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral in ation. Our results from panel time-series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate in ation behaviour. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of in ation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We nd that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous-consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.

On decomposing the causes of changes in income-related health inequality with longitudinal data

Regression-based decomposition procedures are used to both standardise the concentration index and to determine the contribution of inequalities in the individual health determinants to the overall value of the index. The main contribution of this paper is to develop analogous procedures to decompose the income-related health mobility and health-related income mobility indices first proposed in Allanson, Gerdtham and Petrie (2010) and subsequently extended in Petrie, Allanson and Gerdtham (2010) to account for deaths. The application of the procedures is illustrated by an empirical study that uses British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data to analyse the performance of Scotland in tackling income-related health inequalities relative to England & Wales over the five year period 1999 to 2004.

Bacterial community structure of a pesticide-contaminated site and assessment of changes induced in community structure during bioremediation.

The introduction of culture-independent molecular screening techniques, especially based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, has allowed microbiologists to examine a facet of microbial diversity not necessarily reflected by the results of culturing studies. The bacterial community structure was studied for a pesticide-contaminated site that was subsequently remediated using an efficient degradative strain Arthrobacter protophormiae RKJ100. The efficiency of the bioremediation process was assessed by monitoring the depletion of the pollutant, and the effect of addition of an exogenous strain on the existing soil community structure was determined using molecular techniques. The 16S rRNA gene pool amplified from the soil metagenome was cloned and restriction fragment length polymorphism studies revealed 46 different phylotypes on the basis of similar banding patterns. Sequencing of representative clones of each phylotype showed that the community structure of the pesticide-contaminated soil was mainly constituted by Proteobacteria and Actinomycetes. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis showed only nonsignificant changes in community structure during the process of bioremediation. Immobilized cells of strain RKJ100 enhanced pollutant degradation but seemed to have no detectable effects on the existing bacterial community structure.

The Technological Specialization of Countries: An Analysis of Patent Data

New methods of analysis of patent statistics allow assessing country profiles of technological specialization for the period 1990-2006. We witness a modest decrease in levels of specialization, which we show to be negatively influenced by country size and degree of internationalization of inventive activities.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under natural and forced infiltration conditions to estimate vadose zone hydraulic parameters

Time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, collected while infiltration occurs, can provide valuable information regarding the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data provides estimates of parameter uncertainties, which are necessary for hydrological prediction and decision making. Here, we investigate the effect of different infiltration conditions on the stochastic inversion of time-lapse, zero-offset-profile, GPR data. Inversions are performed using a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo methodology. Our results clearly indicate that considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions

Comparing population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data: an application to historical height data from France

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the entire population distributions from bin-aggregated sample data. We do this through the estimation of the parameters of mixtures of distributions that allow for maximal parametric flexibility. The statistical approach we develop enables comparisons of the full distributions of height data from potential army conscripts across France's 88 departments for most of the nineteenth century. These comparisons are made by testing for differences-of-means stochastic dominance. Corrections for possible measurement errors are also devised by taking advantage of the richness of the data sets. Our methodology is of interest to researchers working on historical as well as contemporary bin-aggregated or histogram-type data, something that is still widely done since much of the information that is publicly available is in that form, often due to restrictions due to political sensitivity and/or confidentiality concerns.

Exome sequencing extends the phenotypic spectrum for ABHD12 mutations: from syndromic to nonsyndromic retinal degeneration.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the genetic causes underlying autosomal recessive retinitis pigmentosa (arRP) and to describe the associated phenotype. DESIGN: Case series. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred forty-seven unrelated families affected by arRP and 33 unrelated families affected by retinitis pigmentosa (RP) plus noncongenital and progressive hearing loss, ataxia, or both, respectively. METHODS: A whole exome sequencing (WES) analysis was performed in 2 families segregating arRP. A mutational screening was performed in 378 additional unrelated families for the exon-intron boundaries of the ABHD12 gene. To establish a genotype-phenotype correlation, individuals who were homozygous or compound heterozygotes of mutations in ABHD12 underwent exhaustive clinical examinations by ophthalmologists, neurologists, and otologists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: DNA sequence variants, best-corrected visual acuity, visual field assessments, electroretinogram responses, magnetic resonance imaging, and audiography. RESULTS: After a WES analysis, we identified 4 new mutations (p.Arg107Glufs*8, p.Trp159*, p.Arg186Pro, and p.Thr202Ile) in ABHD12 in 2 families (RP-1292 and W08-1833) previously diagnosed with nonsyndromic arRP, which cosegregated with the disease among the family members. Another homozygous mutation (p.His372Gln) was detected in 1 affected individual (RP-1487) from a cohort of 378 unrelated arRP and syndromic RP patients. After exhaustive clinical examinations by neurologists and otologists, the 4 affected members of the RP-1292 had no polyneuropathy or ataxia, and the sensorineural hearing loss and cataract were attributed to age or the normal course of the RP, whereas the affected members of the families W08-1833 and RP-1487 showed clearly symptoms associated with polyneuropathy, hearing loss, cerebellar ataxia, RP, and early-onset cataract (PHARC) syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Null mutations in the ABHD12 gene lead to PHARC syndrome, a neurodegenerative disease including polyneuropathy, hearing loss, cerebellar ataxia, RP, and early-onset cataract. Our study allowed us to report 5 new mutations in ABHD12. This is the first time missense mutations have been described for this gene. Furthermore, these findings are expanding the spectrum of phenotypes associated with ABHD12 mutations ranging from PHARC syndrome to a nonsyndromic form of retinal degeneration.