Fully Bayesian experimental design for pharmacokinetic studies

Utility functions in Bayesian experimental design are usually based on the posterior distribution. When the posterior is found by simulation, it must be sampled from for each future data set drawn from the prior predictive distribution. Many thousands of posterior distributions are often required. A popular technique in the Bayesian experimental design literature to rapidly obtain samples from the posterior is importance sampling, using the prior as the importance distribution. However, importance sampling will tend to break down if there is a reasonable number of experimental observations and/or the model parameter is high dimensional. In this paper we explore the use of Laplace approximations in the design setting to overcome this drawback. Furthermore, we consider using the Laplace approximation to form the importance distribution to obtain a more efficient importance distribution than the prior. The methodology is motivated by a pharmacokinetic study which investigates the effect of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on the pharmacokinetics of antibiotics in sheep. The design problem is to find 10 near optimal plasma sampling times which produce precise estimates of pharmacokinetic model parameters/measures of interest. We consider several different utility functions of interest in these studies, which involve the posterior distribution of parameter functions.

The health outcomes and costs of people attending an interdisciplinary chronic disease service in regional Australia : protocol for a longitudinal cohort investigation

Background Rates of chronic disease are escalating around the world. To date health service evaluations have focused on interventions for single chronic diseases. However, evaluations of the effectiveness of new intervention strategies that target single chronic diseases as well as multimorbidity are required, particularly in areas outside major metropolitan centres where access to services, such as specialist care, is difficult and where the retention and recruitment of health professionals affects service provision. Methods This study is a longitudinal investigation with a baseline and three follow-up assessments comparing the health and health costs of people with chronic disease before and after intervention at a chronic disease clinic, in regional Australia. The clinic is led by students under the supervision of health professionals. The study will provide preliminary evidence regarding the effectiveness of the intervention, and evaluate the influence of a range of factors on the health outcomes and costs of the patients attending the clinic. Patients will be evaluated at baseline (intake to the service), and at 3-, 6-, and 12-months after intake to the service. Health will be measured using the SF-36 and health costs will be measured using government and medical record sources. The intervention involves students and health professionals from multiple professions working together to treat patients with programs that include education and exercise therapy programs for back pain, and Healthy Lifestyle programs; as well as individual consultations involving single professions. Discussion Understanding the effect of a range of factors on the health state and health costs of people attending an interdisciplinary clinic will inform health service provision for this clinical group and will determine which factors need to be controlled for in future observational studies. Preliminary evidence regarding changes in health and health costs associated with the intervention will be a platform for future clinical trials of intervention effectiveness. The results will be of interest to teams investigating new chronic disease programs particularly for people with multimorbidity, and in areas outside major metropolitan centres.

Higher harmonic large-amplitude fourier transformed alternating current voltammetry : analytical attributes derived from studies of the oxidation of ferrocenemethanol and uric acid at a glassy carbon electrode

An analytical evaluation of the higher ac harmonic components derived from large amplitude Fourier transformed voltammetry is provided for the reversible oxidation of ferrocenemethanol (FcMeOH) and oxidation of uric acid by an EEC mechanism in a pH 7.4 phosphate buffer at a glassy carbon (GC) electrode. The small background current in the analytically optimal fifth harmonic is predominantly attributed to faradaic current associated with the presence of electroactive functional groups on the GC electrode surface, rather than to capacitive current which dominates the background in the dc, and the initial three ac harmonics. The detection limits for the dc and the first to fifth harmonic ac components are 1.9, 5.89, 2.1, 2.5, 0.8, and 0.5 µM for FcMeOH, respectively, using a sine wave modulation of 100 mV at 21.46 Hz and a dc sweep rate of 111.76 mV s−1. Analytical performance then progressively deteriorates in the sixth and higher harmonics. For the determination of uric acid, the capacitive background current was enhanced and the reproducibility lowered by the presence of surface active uric acid, but the rapid overall 2e− rather than 1e– electron transfer process gives rise to a significantly enhanced fifth harmonic faradaic current which enabled a detection limit of 0.3 µM to be achieved which is similar to that reported using chemically modified electrodes. Resolution of overlapping voltammetric signals for a mixture of uric acid and dopamine is also achieved using higher fourth or fifth harmonic components, under very low background current conditions. The use of higher fourth and fifth harmonics exhibiting highly favorable faradaic to background (noise) current ratios should therefore be considered in analytical applications under circumstances where the electron transfer rate is fast.

Experimental studies of hollow flange channel beams subject to combined bending and shear actions

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel hollow flange channel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to combined bending and shear actions. The LSB sections are produced by a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and electric resistance welding. Due to the geometry of the LSB, as well as its unique residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections resultant of manufacturing processes, much of the existing research for common cold-formed steel sections is not directly applicable to LSB. Experimental and numerical studies have been carried out to evaluate the behaviour and design of LSBs subject to pure bending actions and predominant shear actions. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the strength of LSB sections under combined bending and shear actions. Combined bending and shear is especially prevalent at the supports of continuous span and cantilever beams, where the interaction of high shear force and bending moment can reduce the capacity of a section to well below that for the same section subject only to pure shear or moment. Hence experimental studies were conducted to assess the combined bending and shear behaviour and strengths of LSBs. Eighteen tests were conducted and the results were compared with current AS/NZS 4600 and AS 4100 design rules. AS/NZS 4600 design rules were shown to grossly underestimate the combined bending and shear capacities of LSBs and hence two lower bound design equations were proposed based on experimental results. Use of these equations will significantly improve the confidence and cost-effectiveness of designing LSBs for combined bending and shear actions.

A Sustainable Community for Older People : Case Studies of Green Retirement Villages in Australia

In Australia, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over reached 13.5% in 2010 and is expected to increase steadily to around 20% by the year 2056 [Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2010], creating what has been regarded as a looming crisis in how to house and care for older people. As a viable accommodation option, the retirement village is widely accepted as a means of promoting and enhancing independence, choice and quality of life for older people. Recent research by Barker (2010) indicates that the current and potential residents of retirement villages are generally very conscious of resource consumption and would like their residences and community to be more sustainable. The aim of this study was to understand the perception of older people toward sustainability ideas and identify the sustainable practices involved in retirement villages to improve the wellbeing of residents. Multiple research methods, including content analysis, questionnaire survey, interviews and case studies were conducted for the research purpose. The results indicate that most retirement village residents understand and recognize the importance of sustainability in their lifestyle. However, their sustainability requirements need to be supported and enhanced by the provision of affordable sustainability features. Additionally, many retirement village developers and operators realize the importance of providing a sustainable retirement community for their residents, and that a sustainable retirement village (that is environmental-friendly, affordable, and improves social engagement) can be achieved through the consideration of project planning, design, construction, and operations throughout the project life cycle. The clear shift from healthcare to lifestyle-focused services in the recent development of retirement villages together with the increasing number of aged people moving into retirement villages (Simpson and Cheney, 2007) has raised awareness of the need for the retirement village industry to provide a sustainable community for older people to improve their life quality after retirement. This is the first critical study of sustainable development in the retirement village industry and its potential in addressing the housing needs of older people, providing a contribution towards improving the life quality of older people and with direct and immediate significance to the community as a whole.