Dispersal of seeds of Hymenaea courbaril (Fabaceae) in a logged rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian

Seed dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril was studied by following the fate of 585 seeds embedded with small magnets and set in displays in and near a logged strip in rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian. Mammals took fruits from all displays, which were located in the forest, edge, and cleared strip. Overall removal rates were low - a median of 8.1 fruits / month from displays maintained with 8-10 fruits - but were higher in August than in earlier months. Most fruits were dropped near the display or had their seeds eaten, but > 13% were successfully dispersed. Most of the dispersed seeds were buried, which increases probability of germination. Maximum dispersal distance of live seeds was 12.1 m (median 3.1 m), but other magnets were transported up to 34 m, indicating seeds were dispersed further, but then eaten. Acouchies (most likely Myoprocta pratti) and agoutis (Dasyprocta fuliginosa) were apparently the main dispersal agents. Dispersal of seeds from the forest into the logged strip was rare, suggesting that although rodents disperse H. courbaril, they cannot be relied on for the reseeding this and similar species in recent clearings.

Intelligent decision support to predict patient barotrauma risk in intensive care units

The occurrence of Barotrauma is identified as a major concern for health professionals, since it can be fatal for patients. In order to support the decision process and to predict the risk of occurring barotrauma Data Mining models were induced. Based on this principle, the present study addresses the Data Mining process aiming to provide hourly probability of a patient has Barotrauma. The process of discovering implicit knowledge in data collected from Intensive Care Units patientswas achieved through the standard process Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. With the goal of making predictions according to the classification approach they several DM techniques were selected: Decision Trees, Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine. The study was focused on identifying the validity and viability to predict a composite variable. To predict the Barotrauma two classes were created: “risk” and “no risk”. Such target come from combining two variables: Plateau Pressure and PCO2. The best models presented a sensitivity between 96.19% and 100%. In terms of accuracy the values varied between 87.5% and 100%. This study and the achieved results demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the risk of a patient having Barotrauma by presenting the probability associated.

Structure-property relationships in polymer nanocomposites

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos

A delinquência juvenil em Cabo Verde: da caracterização do fenómeno à contextualização sociocultural

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Aplicada.

On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

Solving large 0–1 multidimensional knapsack problems by a new simplified binary artificial fish swarm algorithm

The artificial fish swarm algorithm has recently been emerged in continuous global optimization. It uses points of a population in space to identify the position of fish in the school. Many real-world optimization problems are described by 0-1 multidimensional knapsack problems that are NP-hard. In the last decades several exact as well as heuristic methods have been proposed for solving these problems. In this paper, a new simpli ed binary version of the artificial fish swarm algorithm is presented, where a point/ fish is represented by a binary string of 0/1 bits. Trial points are created by using crossover and mutation in the different fi sh behavior that are randomly selected by using two user de ned probability values. In order to make the points feasible the presented algorithm uses a random heuristic drop item procedure followed by an add item procedure aiming to increase the profit throughout the adding of more items in the knapsack. A cyclic reinitialization of 50% of the population, and a simple local search that allows the progress of a small percentage of points towards optimality and after that refines the best point in the population greatly improve the quality of the solutions. The presented method is tested on a set of benchmark instances and a comparison with other methods available in literature is shown. The comparison shows that the proposed method can be an alternative method for solving these problems.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Identification of duplicates of cassava accessions sampled on the North Region of Brazil using microsatellite markers

Duplicates are common in germplasm banks and their identification is needed to facilitate germplasm bank management and to reduce maintenance costs. The aim of this work was to identify duplicates of cassava from a germplasm bank in Eastern Amazon, which had been previously characterized both morphological and agronomically. In order to be genotyped with 15 microsatellite loci, 36 accessions were selected. These accessions were classified into 13 groups of similar morpho-agronomical characteristics. All loci were polymorphic, and 75 alleles were identified, with an average of five alleles per loci and H E = 0.66. There were determined 34 pairs of genotypes with identical multiloci profiles and the probability of genetic identity was 1.1x10-12 with probability of exclusion of 99.9999%. Among these duplicates, there are accessions sampled on different years and places, but with different names and accessions with the same name sampled in different places and years. The study identified genotypes that are grown in different places and that have been maintained over the years by local farmers.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Systems biology approaches for the design of novel Saccharomyces cerevisiae winemaking strains for enhanced flavour compounds synthesis

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Ambiental e Molecular

High-level of viral genomic diversity in cervical cancers: a Brazilian study on human papillomavirus type 16

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.

A inflação pela imaginação: Estudo dos efeitos interferentes

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia (Especialidade de Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas)

Real-time monitoring of progression towards renal failure in primary care patients

First published online: December 16, 2014.

Análise técnica - económica da produção de energia em sistemas de abastecimento de água: caso do aproveitamento de fins múltiplos dos socorridos

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil