What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Participation of interleukin-5, interleukin-8 and leukotriene B4 in eosinophil accumulation in two different experimental models

There are several experimental models describing in vivo eosinophil (EO) migration, including ip injection of a large volume of saline (SAL) or Sephadex beads (SEP). The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms involved in the EO migration in these two models. Two consecutive injections of SAL given 48 hr apart, induced a selective recruitment of EO into peritoneal cavity of rats, which peaked 48 hr after the last injection. SEP, when injected ip, promoted EO accumulation in rats. The phenomenom was dose-related and peaked 48 hr after SEP injection. To investigate the mediators involved in this process we showed that BW A4C, MK 886 and dexamethasone (DXA) inhibited the EO migration induced by SAL and SEP. To investigate the source of the EO chemotactic factor we showed that mast cells, macrophages (MO), but not lymphocytes, incubated in vitro in presence of SAL released a factor which induced EO migration. With SEP, only mast cells release a factor that induced EO migration, which was inhibited by BW A4C, MK 886 and DXA. Furthermore, the chemotactic activity of SAL-stimulated mast cells was inhibited by antisera against IL-5 and IL-8 (interleukin). SAL-stimulated MO were only inhibited by anti-IL-8 antibodies as well SEP-stimulated mast cells. These results suggest that the EO migration induced by SAL may be dependent on resident mast cells and MO and mediated by LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8. SEP-induced EO migration was dependent on mast cells and may be mediated by LTB4 and IL-8. Furthermore, IL-5 and IL-8 induced EO migration, which was also dependent on resident cells and mediated by LTB4 . In conclusion, EO migration induced by SAL is dependent on mast cells and MO, whereas that induced by SEP is dependent on mast cells alone. Stimulated mast cells release LTB4, IL-5 and IL-8 while MO release LTB4 and IL-8. The IL-5 and IL-8 release by the SAL or SEP-stimulated resident cells may act in an autocrine fashion, thus potentiating LTB4 release.

Role of eosinophilic airway inflammation in models of asthma

Eosinophils play a central role in the establishment and outcome of bronchial inflammation in asthma. Animal models of allergy are useful to answer questions related to mechanisms of allergic inflammation. We have used models of sensitized and boosted guinea pigs to investigate the nature of bronchial inflammation in allergic conditions. These animals develop marked bronchial infiltration composed mainly of CD4+ T-lymphocytes and eosinophils. Further provocation with antigen leads to degranulation of eosinophils and ulceration of the bronchial mucosa. Eosinophils are the first cells to increase in numbers in the mucosa after antigen challenge and depend on the expression of alpha 4 integrin to adhere to the vascular endothelium and transmigrate to the mucosa. Blockage of alpha4 integrin expression with specific antibody prevents not only the transmigration of eosinophils but also the development of bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to agonists in sensitized and challenged animals, clearly suggesting a role for this cell type in this altered functional state. Moreover, introduction of antibody against Major Basic Protein into the airways also prevents the development of BHR in similar model. BHR can also be suppressed by the use of FK506, an immunosuppressor that reduces in almost 100% the infiltration of eosinophils into the bronchi of allergic animals. These data support the concept that eosinophil is the most important pro-inflammatory factor in bronchial inflammation associated with allergy.

Regulation of the voltage-gated sodium channel Nav1.7 by ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2

Background and aim: Neuropathic pain (NP) is a frequent and disabling disorder occurring as a consequence of a direct lesion of the nervous system and recurrently associated with a positive shift toward nervous system excitability. Peripheral nerve activity is mainly carried by voltage-gated sodium channels (VGSC), with Nav1.7 isoform being an important candidate since loss of function mutations of its gene is associated with congenital inability to experience pain. Interestingly, ubiquitin ligases from the Nedd4 family are well known proteins that regulate the turnover of many membrane proteins such as VGSC and we showed Nedd2-2 is downregualted in experimental models of chronic pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the importance of Nedd4-2 in the modulation of Nav1.7 at the membrane. Methods: In vitro: whole cell patch clamp on HEK293 cell line stably expressing Nav1.7 was used to record sodium currents (INa), where the peak current of INa reflects the quantity of functional Nav1.7 expressed at the membrane. The possibility that Nedd4-2 modulates the currents was assessed by investigating the effect of its cotransfection on INa. Biotinylation of cell surface was used to isolate membrane-targeted Nav1.7. Furthermore, as the interaction between Nedd4-2 and Nav isoforms was previously reported to rely on an xPPxYx sequence (PY-motif), we mutated this latter to study its impact in the specific interaction between Nav1.7 and Nedd4-2. GST-fusion proteins composed of the Nav1.7 c terminal 66 amino acids (wild-type or PY mutated) and GST were used to pull-down Nedd4-2 from lysates. Results: Co-transfection of Nav1.7 with Nedd4-2 reduced the Nav1.7 current amplitude by ~80% (n = 36, p <0.001), without modifying the biophysical properties of INa. In addition, we show that the quantity of Nav1.7 at the membrane was decreased when Nedd4-2 was present. This effect was dependent on the PY-motif since mutations in this sequence abolished the down-regulatory effect of Nedd4-2. The importance of this motif was further confirmed by pull down experiments since the PY mutant completely eliminate the interaction with Nedd4-2. Perspectives: Altogether, these results point to the importance of Nedd4-2 as a Nav1.7 regulator through cell surface modulation of this sodium channel. Further experiments in freshly dissociated neurons from wild type and Scn1bflox/Nedd4-2Cre mice are needed to confirm in vivo these preliminary data.

Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Are initial radiographic and clinical scales associated with subsequent intracranial pressure and brain oxygen levels after severe traumatic brain injury?

BACKGROUND: Prediction of clinical course and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is important. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether clinical scales (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS], Injury Severity Score [ISS], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II [APACHE II]) or radiographic scales based on admission computed tomography (Marshall and Rotterdam) were associated with intensive care unit (ICU) physiology (intracranial pressure [ICP], brain tissue oxygen tension [PbtO2]), and clinical outcome after severe TBI. METHODS: One hundred one patients (median age, 41.0 years; interquartile range [26-55]) with severe TBI who had ICP and PbtO2 monitoring were identified. The relationship between admission GCS, ISS, APACHE II, Marshall and Rotterdam scores and ICP, PbtO2, and outcome was examined by using mixed-effects models and logistic regression. RESULTS: Median (25%-75% interquartile range) admission GCS and APACHE II without GCS scores were 3.0 (3-7) and 11.0 (8-13), respectively. Marshall and Rotterdam scores were 3.0 (3-5) and 4.0 (4-5). Mean ICP and PbtO2 during the patients' ICU course were 15.5 ± 10.7 mm Hg and 29.9 ± 10.8 mm Hg, respectively. Three-month mortality was 37.6%. Admission GCS was not associated with mortality. APACHE II (P = .003), APACHE-non-GCS (P = .004), Marshall (P < .001), and Rotterdam scores (P < .001) were associated with mortality. No relationship between GCS, ISS, Marshall, or Rotterdam scores and subsequent ICP or PbtO2 was observed. The APACHE II score was inversely associated with median PbtO2 (P = .03) and minimum PbtO2 (P = .008) and had a stronger correlation with amount of time of reduced PbtO2. CONCLUSION: Following severe TBI, factors associated with outcome may not always predict a patient's ICU course and, in particular, intracranial physiology.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar : Eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense

Entrevistant infants pre-escolars víctimes d’abús sexual i/o maltractament familiar: eficàcia dels models d’entrevista forense Entrevistar infants en edat preescolar que han viscut una situació traumàtica és una tasca complexa que dins l’avaluació psicològica forense necessita d’un protocol perfectament delimitat, clar i temporalitzat. Per això, s’han seleccionat 3 protocols d’entrevista: el Protocol de Menors (PM) de Bull i Birch, el model del National Institute for Children Development (NICHD) de Michel Lamb, a partir del qual es va desenvolupar l’EASI (Evaluación del Abuso Sexual Infantojuvenil) i l’Entrevista Cognitiva (EC) de Fisher i Geiselman. La hipòtesi de partida vol comprovar si els anteriors models permeten obtenir volums informatius diferents en infants preescolars. Conseqüentment, els objectius han estat determinar quin dels models d’entrevista permet obtenir un volum informatiu amb més precisions i menys errors, dissenyar un model d’entrevista propi i consensuar aquest model. En el treball s’afegeixen esquemes pràctics que facilitin l’obertura, desenvolupament i tancament de l’entrevista forense. La metodologia ha reproduït el binomi infant - esdeveniment traumàtic, mitjançant la visualització i l’explicació d’un fet emocionalment significatiu amb facilitat per identificar-se: l’accident en bicicleta d’un infant que cau, es fa mal, sagna i el seu pare el cura. A partir d’aquí, hem entrevistat 135 infants de P3, P4 i P5, mitjançant els 3 models d’entrevista referits, enfrontant-los a una demanda específica: recordar i narrar aquest esdeveniment. S’ha conclòs que el nivell de record correcte, quan s’utilitza un model d’entrevista adequat amb els infants en edat preescolar, oscil•la entre el 70-90%, fet que permet defensar la confiança en els records dels infants. Es constata que el percentatge d’emissions incorrectes dels infants en edat preescolar és mínim, al voltant d’un 5-6%. L’estudi remarca la necessitat d’establir perfectament les regles de l’entrevista i, per últim, en destaca la ineficàcia de les tècniques de memòria de l’entrevista cognitiva en els infants de P3 i P4. En els de P5 es comencen a veure beneficis gràcies a la tècnica de la reinstauració contextual (RC), estant les altres tècniques fora de la comprensió i utilització dels infants d’aquestes edats. Interviewing preschoolers victims of sexual abuse and/or domestic abuse: Effectiveness of forensic interviews models 135 preschool children were interviewed with 3 different interview models in order to remember a significant emotional event. Authors conclude that the correct recall of children ranging from 70-90% and the percentage of error messages is 5-6%. It is necessary to fully establish the rules of the interview. The present research highlights the effectiveness of the cognitive interview techniques in children from P3 and P4. Entrevistando niños preescolares víctimas de abuso sexual y/o maltrato familiar: eficacia de los modelos de entrevista forense Se han entrevistado 135 niños preescolares con 3 modelos de entrevista diferentes para recordar un hecho emocionalmente significativo. Se concluye que el recuerdo correcto de los niños oscila entre el 70-90% y el porcentaje de errores de mensajes es del 5-6%. El estudio remarca la necesidad de establecer perfectamente las reglas de la entrevista y se destaca la ineficacia de las técnicas de la entrevista cognitiva en los niños de P3 y P4.

Endothelial nitric oxide synthase gene transfer restores endothelium-dependent relaxations and attenuates lesion formation in carotid arteries in apolipoprotein E-deficient mice.

Nitric oxide (NO) and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) exert partly opposing effects in vascular biology. NO plays pleiotropic vasoprotective roles including vasodilation and inhibition of platelet aggregation, smooth muscle cell proliferation, and endothelial monocyte adhesion, the last effect being mediated by MCP-1 downregulation. Early stages of arteriosclerosis are associated with reduced NO bioactivity and enhanced MCP-1 expression. We have evaluated adenovirus-mediated gene transfer of human endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) and of a N-terminal deletion (8ND) mutant of the MCP-1 gene that acts as a MCP-1 inhibitor in arteriosclerosis-prone, apolipoprotein E-deficient (ApoE(-/-)) mice. Endothelium-dependent relaxations were impaired in carotid arteries instilled with a noncoding adenoviral vector but were restored by eNOS gene transfer (p < 0.01). A perivascular collar was placed around the common carotid artery to accelerate lesion formation. eNOS gene transfer reduced lesion surface areas, intima/media ratios, and macrophage contents in the media at 5-week follow-up (p < 0.05). In contrast, 8ND-MCP-1 gene transfer did not prevent lesion formation. In conclusion, eNOS gene transfer restores endothelium-dependent vasodilation and inhibits lesion formation in ApoE(-/-) mouse carotids. Further studies are needed to assess whether vasoprotection is maintained at later disease stages and to evaluate the long-term efficacy of eNOS gene therapy for primary arteriosclerosis.

Development of glycopeptide-intermediate resistance by Staphylococcus aureus leads to attenuated infectivity in a rat model of endocarditis.

Glycopeptide-intermediate resistant Staphylococcus aureus (GISA) are characterized by multiple changes in the cell wall and an altered expression of global virulence regulators. We investigated whether GISA are affected in their infectivity in a rat model of experimental endocarditis. The glycopeptide-susceptible, methicillin-resistant S. aureus M1V2 and its laboratory-derived GISA M1V16 were examined for their ability to (i) adhere to fibrinogen and fibronectin in vitro, (ii) persist in the bloodstream after intravenous inoculation, (iii) colonize aortic vegetations in rats, and (iv) compete for valve colonization by co-inoculation. Both GISA M1V16 and M1V2 adhered similarly to fibrinogen and fibronectin in vitro. In rats, GISA M1V16 was cleared faster from the blood (P < 0.05) and required 100-times more bacteria than parent M1V2 (10(6) versus 10(4)CFU) to infect 90% of vegetations. GISA M1V16 also had 100 to 1000-times lower bacterial densities in vegetations. Moreover, after co-inoculation with GISA M1V16 and M1V2Rif, a rifampin-resistant variant of M1V2 to discriminate them in organ cultures, GISA M1V16 was out-competed by the glycopeptide-susceptible counterpart. Thus, in rats with experimental endocarditis, GISA showed an attenuated virulence, likely due to a faster clearance from the blood and a reduced fitness in cardiac vegetations. The GISA phenotype appeared globally detrimental to infectivity.

Protective effect of intravitreal administration of tresperimus, an immunosuppressive drug, on experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis.

PURPOSE: To test the efficiency of locally administrated tresperimus in experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis (EAU). METHODS: EAU was induced in Lewis rats by S-antigen (S-Ag) immunization. Three intravitreal injections of tresperimus (prevention or prevention/treatment protocols) were performed at different time points after immunization. The pharmacokinetics of tresperimus was evaluated in the ocular tissues and plasma. The in vitro effect of tresperimus was evaluated on macrophages. EAU was graded clinically and histologically. Blood ocular barrier permeability was evaluated by protein concentration in ocular fluids. Immune response to S-Ag was examined by delayed type hypersensitivity, the expression of inflammatory cytokines in lymph nodes, ocular fluids and serum by multiplex ELISA, and in ocular cells by RT-PCR. RESULTS: In vitro, tresperimus significantly reduced the production of inflammatory cytokines by lipopolysaccharide-stimulated macrophages. In vivo, in the treatment protocol, efficient tresperimus levels were measured in the eye but not in the plasma up to 8 days after the last injection. Tresperimus efficiently reduced inflammation, retinal damage, and blood ocular barrier permeability breakdown. It inhibited nitric oxide synthase-2 and nuclear factor κBp65 expression in ocular macrophages. IL-2 and IL-17 were decreased in ocular media, while IL-18 was increased. By contrast, IL-2 and IL-17 levels were not modified in inguinal lymph nodes draining the immunization site. Moreover, cytokine levels in serum and delayed type hypersensitivity to S-Ag were not different in control and treated rats. In the prevention/treatment protocol, ocular immunosuppressive effects were also observed. CONCLUSIONS: Locally administered tresperimus appears to be a potential immunosuppressive agent in the management of intraocular inflammation.

Epineurial adipocytes are dispensable for Schwann cell myelination.

Previous clinical observations and data from mouse models with defects in lipid metabolism suggested that epineurial adipocytes may play a role in peripheral nervous system myelination. We have used adipocyte-specific Lpin1 knockout mice to characterize the consequences of the presence of impaired epineurial adipocytes on the myelinating peripheral nerve. Our data revealed that the capacity of Schwann cells to establish myelin, and the functional properties of peripheral nerves, were not affected by compromised epineurial adipocytes in adipocyte-specific Lpin1 knockout mice. To evaluate the possibility that Lpin1-negative adipocytes are still able to support endoneurial Schwann cells, we also characterized sciatic nerves from mice carrying epiblast-specific deletion of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma, which develop general lipoatrophy. Interestingly, even the complete loss of adipocytes in the epineurium of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma knockout mice did not lead to detectable defects in Schwann cell myelination. However, probably as a consequence of their hyperglycemia, these mice have reduced nerve conduction velocity, thus mimicking the phenotype observed under diabetic condition. Together, our data indicate that while adipocytes, as regulators of lipid and glucose homeostasis, play a role in nerve function, their presence in epineurium is not essential for establishment or maintenance of proper myelin.