Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Uma ferramenta para cálculo da máxima intensidade da ilha de calor noturna

O objetivo deste artigo é verificar a influência da geometria urbana na intensidade de ilhas de calor noturnas com uso de uma ferramenta computacional desenvolvida como extensão de um SIG. O método deste trabalho está dividido em três principais etapas: desenvolvimento da ferramenta, calibração do modelo e simulação de cenários hipotéticos com diferentes geometrias urbanas. Um modelo simplificado que relaciona as intensidades máximas de ilha de calor urbana (ICUmáx) com a geometria urbana foi incorporado à subrotina de cálculo e, posteriormente, adaptado para fornecer resultados mais aproximados à realidade de duas cidades brasileiras, as quais serviram de base para a calibração do modelo. A comparação entre dados reais e simulados mostraram uma diferença no aumento da ICUmáx em função da relação H/W e da faixa de comprimento de rugosidade (Z0). Com a ferramenta já calibrada, foi realizada uma simulação de diferentes cenários urbanos, demonstrando que o modelo simplificado original subestima valores de ICUmáx para as configurações de cânions urbanos de Z0 < 2,0 e superestima valores de ICUmáx para as configurações de cânions urbanos de Z0 ≥ 2,0. Além disso, este estudo traz como contribuição à verificação de que cânions urbanos com maiores áreas de fachadas e com alturas de edificações mais heterogêneas resultam em ICUmáx menores em relação aos cânions mais homogêneos e com maiores áreas médias ocupadas pelas edificações, para um mesmo valor de relação H/W. Essa diferença pode ser explicada pelos diferentes efeitos na turbulência dos ventos e nas áreas sombreadas provocados pela geometria urbana.

The role of Pep4p, the vacuolar yeast protease ortholog of human cathepsin D, in mitochondria-dependent apoptosis

Doctoral Thesis (PhD Programm on Molecular and Environmental Biology)

Enzymatic processing of protein-based fibers

Wool and silk are major protein fiber materials used by the textile industry. Fiber protein structure-function relationships are briefly described here, and the major enzymatic processing routes for textiles and other novel applications are deeply reviewed. Fiber biomodification is described here with various classes of enzymes such as protease, transglutaminase, tyrosinase, and laccase. It is expected that the reader will get a perspective on the research done as a basis for new applications in other areas such as cosmetics and pharma.

Differential top-antitop cross-section measurements as a function of observables constructed from final-state particles using pp collisions at s√=7 TeV in the ATLAS detector

Various differential cross-sections are measured in top-quark pair (tt¯) events produced in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV at the LHC with the ATLAS detector. These differential cross-sections are presented in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The differential cross-sections are presented in terms of kinematic variables of a top-quark proxy referred to as the pseudo-top-quark whose dependence on theoretical models is minimal. The pseudo-top-quark can be defined in terms of either reconstructed detector objects or stable particles in an analogous way. The measurements are performed on tt¯ events in the lepton+jets channel, requiring exactly one charged lepton and at least four jets with at least two of them tagged as originating from a b-quark. The hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quarks are defined via the leptonic or hadronic decay mode of the W boson produced by the top-quark decay in events with a single charged lepton.The cross-section is measured as a function of the transverse momentum and rapidity of both the hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quark as well as the transverse momentum, rapidity and invariant mass of the pseudo-top-quark pair system. The measurements are corrected for detector effects and are presented within a kinematic range that closely matches the detector acceptance. Differential cross-section measurements of the pseudo-top-quark variables are compared with several Monte Carlo models that implement next-to-leading order or leading-order multi-leg matrix-element calculations.

A (in)existência de apoio judiciário na arbitragem administrativa: o direito de acesso à tutela jurisdicional efetiva?

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito Administrativo

Antibacterial properties of fibrous stents coated with silver oxide nanocoatings

Stents are rigid and perforated tubular structures, which are inserted into blood vessels in order to prevent or inhibit the constriction of blood flow, restoring the normal blood flow, when blood vessels are clogged, being used in 70% of angioplasties. These medical devices assume great importance in the treatment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) which are the leading cause of death worldwide. In the European Union CVD account for 40% of deaths and assume an estimated annual cost of 196 billion euros[1]. Stents must possess certain requirements, in order to, adequately, perform its function, such as biocompatibility (so that its use does not c ause damage on the health of its user), mechanical strength, radiopacity (so that it is easy to view), longitudinal flexibility, ease of handling, corrosion resistance and having high strength and high radial expansion ability to recover. Stents can be made of different materials, but metals, particularly stainless steel, are the most common. However, metallic stents present several dRawbacks such as corrosion and restenosis, leading to health complications for the patient, or even death. In order to minimize these disadvantages, new materials, like fibrous materials, have been used [2]. Monofilaments present high potential for stents development because, in addition to its biocompatibility, these materials allow the application of various surface treatments, such as antibacterial coatings. Furthermore, monofilament exhibit excellent mechanical properties, like greater stiffness and good results when subjected to compression, tensile and bending forces, since these forces will be directly supported by the monofilament [3]. To minimize the reaction of the human body and Limit the adhesion of microorganisms to the stent surface, some coatings have been developed, including the use of novel metals with antimicrobial properties, like silver. The main objective of this study was the development of fibrous stents, incorporation of silver oxide nanocoating. For the development of the stent, polyester monofilaments with 0.27mm of diameter were used in braiding technology, with a mandrel diameter of 6mm and a braiding angle of 35⁰. The mechanical behaviour of the stent were evaluated by mechanical testing under longitudinal and radial compression, bending. The results of compressive strength tests are according with value from literature: 1.13 to 2.9 N for radial compression and 0. 16-5.28N to longitudinal compression. From literature is also possible to verify that stents must present 75% of unchanged diameter during the bending test and must possess a porosity between 70% and 80% [4]. The produced polyester stent presents values of 1.29N for radial compression, 0.23N for longitudinal compression, 80% of porosity and 85.5% of unchanged diameter, during bending tests. For the antibacterial functionalization, silver oxide nanocoatings were prepared, through reactive magnetron g, with an Ag target in an Ar +O2 atmosphere. In order to evaluate the nanostructure and morphology of the coatings, d ifferent technique s like X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and and X- ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS were used. From the analyses of XRD it is possible to verify that the peaks corresponds to planes of Ag2 O and MATERIAIS 2015 Porto, 21-23 June, 2015 characterize a cubic phase. The presence of Ag2 O is corroborated by XPS spectrum, where it is possible to observe silver, not only, in oxide state, but a lso in mettalic state, and it is possible to verify the presence of silver clusters, confirmed by SEM analysis. Films’ roughness and topography, parameters influencing the wettability of the surface and microorganism adhesion, were measured by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), and it was observed that the roughness is very low (under 10 nm). Coatings’ hydrophobicity and surface tension parameters were determined by contact angle measurement, and it was verified the hydrophobic behavior of the coatings. For antibacterial tests were used Staphylococcus epidermidis strain (IE186) and Staphylococcus aureus(ATCC 6538), and halo inhibition zone tests were realized. Ag+release rates were studied by means of inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP -MS). The obtained results suggest that silver oxide coatings do not modify significantly surface properties of the substrate, like hydrophobicity and roughness, and present antimicrobial properties for both bacteria used.

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton--proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The tt¯ production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. The MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Dynamic modelling and analysis of hydraulic forces in radial blood pumps

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Biomedical Engineering Biomaterials, Biomechanics and Rehabilitation

Single-function approach to calibrating whatman n.º 42 filter paper based on suction versus water content relationships

Several suction–water-content (s-w) calibrations for the filter paper method (FPM) used for soil-suction measurement have been published. Most of the calibrations involve a bilinear function (i.e., two different equations) with an inflection point occurring at 60 kPafunction with a smooth transition between the high and low suctions based on a regression analysis of various previously published calibrations obtained for filter paper Whatman No. 42 (W42) is presented and discussed. The approach is applied herein to data obtained from three establish bilinear calibrations (six equations) for W42 filter paper to determine the two fitting parameters of the continuous function. An experimental evaluation of the new calibration show that the suctions estimated by the contact FPM test using the proposed function compare well with suctions measured by other laboratory techniques for two different soils for the suction range of 50 kPa