Regression models for bivariate survival data

Multivariate lifetime data arise in various forms including recurrent event data when individuals are followed to observe the sequence of occurrences of a certain type of event; correlated lifetime when an individual is followed for the occurrence of two or more types of events, or when distinct individuals have dependent event times. In most studies there are covariates such as treatments, group indicators, individual characteristics, or environmental conditions, whose relationship to lifetime is of interest. This leads to a consideration of regression models.The well known Cox proportional hazards model and its variations, using the marginal hazard functions employed for the analysis of multivariate survival data in literature are not sufficient to explain the complete dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector. Motivated by this, in Chapter 2, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model using vector hazard function of Johnson and Kotz (1975), in which the covariates under study have different effect on two components of the vector hazard function. The proposed model is useful in real life situations to study the dependence structure of pair of lifetimes on the covariate vector . The well known partial likelihood approach is used for the estimation of parameter vectors. We then introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for gap times of recurrent events in Chapter 3. The model incorporates both marginal and joint dependence of the distribution of gap times on the covariate vector . In many fields of application, mean residual life function is considered superior concept than the hazard function. Motivated by this, in Chapter 4, we considered a new semi-parametric model, bivariate proportional mean residual life time model, to assess the relationship between mean residual life and covariates for gap time of recurrent events. The counting process approach is used for the inference procedures of the gap time of recurrent events. In many survival studies, the distribution of lifetime may depend on the distribution of censoring time. In Chapter 5, we introduced a proportional hazards model for duration times and developed inference procedures under dependent (informative) censoring. In Chapter 6, we introduced a bivariate proportional hazards model for competing risks data under right censoring. The asymptotic properties of the estimators of the parameters of different models developed in previous chapters, were studied. The proposed models were applied to various real life situations.

On the crystallization kinetics and micro-structural transformations of Fe40Ni38B18Mo4 alloys

Activation energy for crystallization (Ec) is a pertinent parameter that decides the application potential of many metallic glasses and is proportional to the crystallization temperature. Higher crystallization temperatures are desirable for soft magnetic applications, while lower values for data storage purposes. In this investigation, from the heating rate dependence of peak crystallization temperature Tp, the Ec values have been evaluated by three different methods for metglas 2826 MB (Fe40Ni38B18Mo4) accurately. The Ec values are correlated with the morphological changes, and the structural evolution associated with annealing temperatures is discussed.

Statistical dynamics of dislocation systems: The influence of dislocation-dislocation correlations.

During plastic deformation of crystalline materials, the collective dynamics of interacting dislocations gives rise to various patterning phenomena. A crucial and still open question is whether the long range dislocation-dislocation interactions which do not have an intrinsic range can lead to spatial patterns which may exhibit well-defined characteristic scales. It is demonstrated for a general model of two-dimensional dislocation systems that spontaneously emerging dislocation pair correlations introduce a length scale which is proportional to the mean dislocation spacing. General properties of the pair correlation functions are derived, and explicit calculations are performed for a simple special case, viz pair correlations in single-glide dislocation dynamics. It is shown that in this case the dislocation system exhibits a patterning instability leading to the formation of walls normal to the glide plane. The results are discussed in terms of their general implications for dislocation patterning.

Characterizations of bivariate models using dynamic Kullback–Leibler discrimination measures

In this paper, the residual Kullback–Leibler discrimination information measure is extended to conditionally specified models. The extension is used to characterize some bivariate distributions. These distributions are also characterized in terms of proportional hazard rate models and weighted distributions. Moreover, we also obtain some bounds for this dynamic discrimination function by using the likelihood ratio order and some preceding results.

Some Results on Reciprocal Subtangent in the Context of Weighted Models

Recently, reciprocal subtangent has been used as a useful tool to describe the behaviour of a density curve. Motivated by this, in the present article we extend the concept to the weighted models. Characterization results are proved for models viz. gamma, Rayleigh, equilibrium, residual lifetime, and proportional hazards. An identity under weighted distribution is also obtained when the reciprocal subtangent takes the form of a general class of distributions. Finally, an extension of reciprocal subtangent for the weighted models in the bivariate and multivariate cases are introduced and proved some useful results

Characterizations of Bivariate Models Using Some Dynamic Conditional Information Divergence Measures

In this article, we study some relevant information divergence measures viz. Renyi divergence and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures. These measures are extended to conditionally specifiedmodels and they are used to characterize some bivariate distributions using the concepts of weighted and proportional hazard rate models. Moreover, some bounds are obtained for these measures using the likelihood ratio order

Composition Dependent Study of AC conductivity in AsSe samples

The room temperature AC conductivity σ(ω) of amorphous AsSe samples with various compositions have been measured in the 103 -106 Hz frequency range. The results indicate that ac conductivity is proportional to n with n=0.89±.01 in the 103 –106 Hz frequency range. Consideration of different models for the frequency –dependent conductivity leads to thermally activated hopping as the most likely process

Electrochemical studies of tamsulosin hydrochloride using multiwalled carbon nanotube-modified glassy carbon sensor

A differential pulse voltammetric sensor for the determination of tamsulosin hydrochloride (TAM) using multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs)–Nafion-modified glassy carbon electrode (GCE) has been developed. MWNTs were dispersed in water with the help of Nafion and were used to modify the surface of GCE via solvent evaporation. At MWNT-modified electrode, TAM gave a well-defined oxidation peak at a potential of 1084 mV in 0.1 M acetate buffer solution of pH 5. Compared to the bare electrode, the peak current of TAM showed a marked increase and the peak potential showed a negative deviation. The determination conditions, such as the amount of MWNT–Nafion suspension, pH of the supporting electrolyte and scan rate, were optimised. Under optimum conditions, the oxidation peak current was proportional to the concentration of TAM in the range 1 × 1023 M–3 × 1027 M with a detection limit of 9.8 × 1028 M. The developed sensor showed good stability, selectivity and was successfully used for the determination of TAM in pharmaceutical formulations and urine samples

Occurrence of filamentous algae and soil characteristics in the paddy fields of Kuttanad and Kole lands of Kerala

The present work is the study of filamentous algae in the paddy fields of Kuttanad and Kole lands of Kerala. This investigation was initiated by sampling of filamentous algae in Kuttanad during December 2010 to February 2011. A second phase of sampling was done from November 2011 to February 2012. The sampling periodicity corresponded to the crop growth starting from field preparation through sowing, and continued till the harvest. Sampling locations were selected from the active paddy cultivation regions of the six agronomic zones of Kuttanad. The numbers of sampling locations were proportional to the area of each zone. Algae of the Kole lands were collected during from October 2011 to January 2012. It was observed that blue-green algae dominated in both Kuttanad and Kole lands. Thirty two species of blue-green algae and eight species of green algae were identified from Kuttanad. The highest number of algal species was observed from Kayal lands in Kuttanad throughout the cropping season. Among the thirty two species of blue-green algae twenty five species are nonheterocystous and seven species are heterocystous. Twenty eight species of blue-green and six species of green algae were identified from Kole lands, and highest number of species was observed in Palakkal throughout the cropping season. Among the twenty eight species of blue-green algae collected from Kole lands twenty one species are non-heterocystous, and only seven species are heterocystous filamentous algae. Blooms of Spirogyra were observed during the second phase of sampling in Kuttanad and also in the Kole lands. The results of the germination study revealed that the extract of Spirogyra sp. inhibited seed germination and reduced seedling vigour. The growth of the treated seedlings was evaluated by pot experiments. The results clearly showed that Spirogyra sp. can negatively affect the seed germination, seedling vigour, and the yield of rice.

Performance of Supply Chain when using selected Coordination Mechanisms

Coordination among supply chain members is essential for better supply chain performance. An effective method to improve supply chain coordination is to implement proper coordination mechanisms. The primary objective of this research is to study the performance of a multi-level supply chain while using selected coordination mechanisms separately, and in combination, under lost sale and back order cases. The coordination mechanisms used in this study are price discount, delay in payment and different types of information sharing. Mathematical modelling and simulation modelling are used in this study to analyse the performance of the supply chain using these mechanisms. Initially, a three level supply chain consisting of a supplier, a manufacturer and a retailer has been used to study the combined effect of price discount and delay in payment on the performance (profit) of supply chain using mathematical modelling. This study showed that implementation of individual mechanisms improves the performance of the supply chain compared to ‘no coordination’. When more than one mechanism is used in combination, performance in most cases further improved. The three level supply chain considered in mathematical modelling was then extended to a three level network supply chain consisting of a four retailers, two wholesalers, and a manufacturer with an infinite part supplier. The performance of this network supply chain was analysed under both lost sale and backorder cases using simulation modelling with the same mechanisms: ‘price discount and delay in payment’ used in mathematical modelling. This study also showed that the performance of the supply chain is significantly improved while using combination of mechanisms as obtained earlier. In this study, it is found that the effect (increase in profit) of ‘delay in payment’ and combination of ‘price discount’ & ‘delay in payment’ on SC profit is relatively high in the case of lost sale. Sensitivity analysis showed that order cost of the retailer plays a major role in the performance of the supply chain as it decides the order quantity of the other players in the supply chain in this study. Sensitivity analysis also showed that there is a proportional change in supply chain profit with change in rate of return of any player. In the case of price discount, elasticity of demand is an important factor to improve the performance of the supply chain. It is also found that the change in permissible delay in payment given by the seller to the buyer affects the SC profit more than the delay in payment availed by the buyer from the seller. In continuation of the above, a study on the performance of a four level supply chain consisting of a manufacturer, a wholesaler, a distributor and a retailer with ‘information sharing’ as coordination mechanism, under lost sale and backorder cases, using a simulation game with live players has been conducted. In this study, best performance is obtained in the case of sharing ‘demand and supply chain performance’ compared to other seven types of information sharing including traditional method. This study also revealed that effect of information sharing on supply chain performance is relatively high in the case of lost sale than backorder. The in depth analysis in this part of the study showed that lack of information sharing need not always be resulting in bullwhip effect. Instead of bullwhip effect, lack of information sharing produced a huge hike in lost sales cost or backorder cost in this study which is also not favorable for the supply chain. Overall analysis provided the extent of improvement in supply chain performance under different cases. Sensitivity analysis revealed useful insights about the decision variables of supply chain and it will be useful for the supply chain management practitioners to take appropriate decisions.

Differential induction, isolation, physicochemical and molecular characterization of temperate phages of environmental Vibrio cholerae as evidence of phage mediated Horizontal Gene Transfer

The resurgence of the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative organism of epidemic cholera, remains a major health problem in many developing countries like India. The southern Indian state of Kerala is endemic to cholera. The outbreaks of cholera follow a seasonal pattern in regions of endemicity. Marine aquaculture settings and mangrove environments of Kerala serve as reservoirs for V. cholerae. The non-O1/non-O139 environmental isolates of V. cholerae with incomplete ‘virulence casette’ are to be dealt with caution as they constitute a major reservoir of diverse virulence genes in the marine environment and play a crucial role in pathogenicity and horizontal gene transfer. The genes coding cholera toxin are borne on, and can be infectiously transmitted by CTXΦ, a filamentous lysogenic vibriophages. Temperate phages can provide crucial virulence and fitness factors affecting cell metabolism, bacterial adhesion, colonization, immunity, antibiotic resistance and serum resistance. The present study was an attempt to screen the marine environments like aquafarms and mangroves of coastal areas of Alappuzha and Cochin, Kerala for the presence of lysogenic V. cholerae, to study their pathogenicity and also gene transfer potential. Phenotypic and molecular methods were used for identification of isolates as V. cholerae. The thirty one isolates which were Gram negative, oxidase positive, fermentative, with or without gas production on MOF media and which showed yellow coloured colonies on TCBS (Thiosulfate Citrate Bile salt Sucrose) agar were segregated as vibrios. Twenty two environmental V. cholerae strains of both O1 and non- O1/non-O139 serogroups on induction with mitomycin C showed the presence of lysogenic phages. They produced characteristic turbid plaques in double agar overlay assay using the indicator strain V. cholerae El Tor MAK 757. PCR based molecular typing with primers targeting specific conserved sequences in the bacterial genome, demonstrated genetic diversity among these lysogen containing non-O1 V. cholerae . Polymerase chain reaction was also employed as a rapid screening method to verify the presence of 9 virulence genes namely, ctxA, ctxB, ace, hlyA, toxR, zot,tcpA, ninT and nanH, using gene specific primers. The presence of tcpA gene in ALPVC3 was alarming, as it indicates the possibility of an epidemic by accepting the cholera. Differential induction studies used ΦALPVC3, ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14, underlining the possibility of prophage induction in natural ecosystems, due to abiotic factors like antibiotics, pollutants, temperature and UV. The efficiency of induction of prophages varied considerably in response to the different induction agents. The growth curve of lysogenic V. cholerae used in the study drastically varied in the presence of strong prophage inducers like antibiotics and UV. Bacterial cell lysis was directly proportional to increase in phage number due to induction. Morphological characterization of vibriophages by Transmission Electron Microscopy revealed hexagonal heads for all the four phages. Vibriophage ΦALPVC3 exhibited isometric and contractile tails characteristic of family Myoviridae, while phages ΦALPVC11 and ΦALPVC12 demonstrated the typical hexagonal head and non-contractile tail of family Siphoviridae. ΦEKM14, the podophage was distinguished by short non-contractile tail and icosahedral head. This work demonstrated that environmental parameters can influence the viability and cell adsorption rates of V. cholerae phages. Adsorption studies showed 100% adsorption of ΦALPVC3 ΦALPVC11, ΦALPVC12 and ΦEKM14 after 25, 30, 40 and 35 minutes respectively. Exposure to high temperatures ranging from 50ºC to 100ºC drastically reduced phage viability. The optimum concentration of NaCl required for survival of vibriophages except ΦEKM14 was 0.5 M and that for ΦEKM14 was 1M NaCl. Survival of phage particles was maximum at pH 7-8. V. cholerae is assumed to have existed long before their human host and so the pathogenic clones may have evolved from aquatic forms which later colonized the human intestine by progressive acquisition of genes. This is supported by the fact that the vast majority of V. cholerae strains are still part of the natural aquatic environment. CTXΦ has played a critical role in the evolution of the pathogenicity of V. cholerae as it can transmit the ctxAB gene. The unusual transformation of V. cholerae strains associated with epidemics and the emergence of V. cholera O139 demonstrates the evolutionary success of the organism in attaining greater fitness. Genetic changes in pathogenic V. cholerae constitute a natural process for developing immunity within an endemically infected population. The alternative hosts and lysogenic environmental V. cholerae strains may potentially act as cofactors in promoting cholera phage ‘‘blooms’’ within aquatic environments, thereby influencing transmission of phage sensitive, pathogenic V. cholerae strains by aquatic vehicles. Differential induction of the phages is a clear indication of the impact of environmental pollution and global changes on phage induction. The development of molecular biology techniques offered an accessible gateway for investigating the molecular events leading to genetic diversity in the marine environment. Using nucleic acids as targets, the methods of fingerprinting like ERIC PCR and BOX PCR, revealed that the marine environment harbours potentially pathogenic group of bacteria with genetic diversity. The distribution of virulence associated genes in the environmental isolates of V. cholerae provides tangible material for further investigation. Nucleotide and protein sequence analysis alongwith protein structure prediction aids in better understanding of the variation inalleles of same gene in different ecological niche and its impact on the protein structure for attaining greater fitness of pathogens. The evidences of the co-evolution of virulence genes in toxigenic V. cholerae O1 from different lineages of environmental non-O1 strains is alarming. Transduction studies would indicate that the phenomenon of acquisition of these virulence genes by lateral gene transfer, although rare, is not quite uncommon amongst non-O1/non-O139 V. cholerae and it has a key role in diversification. All these considerations justify the need for an integrated approach towards the development of an effective surveillance system to monitor evolution of V. cholerae strains with epidemic potential. Results presented in this study, if considered together with the mechanism proposed as above, would strongly suggest that the bacteriophage also intervenes as a variable in shaping the cholera bacterium, which cannot be ignored and hinting at imminent future epidemics.

Experimentelle und numerische Untersuchungen zur Dispersion von Dichteströmungen in einem stochastischen Modellaquifer

Es ist bekannt, dass die Dichte eines gelösten Stoffes die Richtung und die Stärke seiner Bewegung im Untergrund entscheidend bestimmen kann. Eine Vielzahl von Untersuchungen hat gezeigt, dass die Verteilung der Durchlässigkeiten eines porösen Mediums diese Dichteffekte verstärken oder abmindern kann. Wie sich dieser gekoppelte Effekt auf die Vermischung zweier Fluide auswirkt, wurde in dieser Arbeit untersucht und dabei das experimentelle sowohl mit dem numerischen als auch mit dem analytischen Modell gekoppelt. Die auf der Störungstheorie basierende stochastische Theorie der macrodispersion wurde in dieser Arbeit für den Fall der transversalen Makodispersion. Für den Fall einer stabilen Schichtung wurde in einem Modelltank (10m x 1.2m x 0.1m) der Universität Kassel eine Serie sorgfältig kontrollierter zweidimensionaler Experimente an einem stochastisch heterogenen Modellaquifer durchgeführt. Es wurden Versuchsreihen mit variierenden Konzentrationsdifferenzen (250 ppm bis 100 000 ppm) und Strömungsgeschwindigkeiten (u = 1 m/ d bis 8 m/d) an drei verschieden anisotrop gepackten porösen Medien mit variierender Varianzen und Korrelationen der lognormal verteilten Permeabilitäten durchgeführt. Die stationäre räumliche Konzentrationsausbreitung der sich ausbreitenden Salzwasserfahne wurde anhand der Leitfähigkeit gemessen und aus der Höhendifferenz des 84- und 16-prozentigen relativen Konzentrationsdurchgang die Dispersion berechnet. Parallel dazu wurde ein numerisches Modell mit dem dichteabhängigen Finite-Elemente-Strömungs- und Transport-Programm SUTRA aufgestellt. Mit dem kalibrierten numerischen Modell wurden Prognosen für mögliche Transportszenarien, Sensitivitätsanalysen und stochastische Simulationen nach der Monte-Carlo-Methode durchgeführt. Die Einstellung der Strömungsgeschwindigkeit erfolgte - sowohl im experimentellen als auch im numerischen Modell - über konstante Druckränder an den Ein- und Auslauftanks. Dabei zeigte sich eine starke Sensitivität der räumlichen Konzentrationsausbreitung hinsichtlich lokaler Druckvariationen. Die Untersuchungen ergaben, dass sich die Konzentrationsfahne mit steigendem Abstand von der Einströmkante wellenförmig einem effektiven Wert annähert, aus dem die Makrodispersivität ermittelt werden kann. Dabei zeigten sich sichtbare nichtergodische Effekte, d.h. starke Abweichungen in den zweiten räumlichen Momenten der Konzentrationsverteilung der deterministischen Experimente von den Erwartungswerten aus der stochastischen Theorie. Die transversale Makrodispersivität stieg proportional zur Varianz und Korrelation der lognormalen Permeabilitätsverteilung und umgekehrt proportional zur Strömungsgeschwindigkeit und Dichtedifferenz zweier Fluide. Aus dem von Welty et al. [2003] mittels Störungstheorie entwickelten dichteabhängigen Makrodispersionstensor konnte in dieser Arbeit die stochastische Formel für die transversale Makrodispersion weiter entwickelt und - sowohl experimentell als auch numerisch - verifiziert werden.

Ein Beitrag zur realitätsnahen Modellierung und Analyse von stahlfaserverstärkten Stahlbeton- und Stahlbetonflächentragwerken

Das Werkstoffverhalten von stahlfaserfreiem bzw. stahlfaserverstärktem Stahlbeton unter biaxialle Druck- Zugbeanspruchung wurde experimentell und theoretisch untersucht. Die Basis der experimentellen Untersuchungen waren zahlreiche Versuche, die in der Vergangenheit an faserfreiem Stahlbetonscheiben zur Bestimmung des Werkstoffverhaltens von gerissenem Stahlbeton im ebenen Spannungszustand durchgeführt wurden. Bei diesen Untersuchungen wurde festgestellt, dass infolge einer Querzugbeanspruchung eine Abminderung der biaxialen Druckfestigkeit entsteht. Unter Berücksichtigung dieser Erkenntnisse sind zur Verbesserung der Werkstoffeigenschaften des Betons, Stahlbetonscheiben aus stahlfaserverstärktem Beton hergestellt worden. Die aus der Literatur bekannten Werkstoffmodelle für Beton sowie Stahlbeton, im ungerissenen und gerissenen Zustand wurden hinsichtlich der in der Vergangenheit ermittelten Materialeigenschaften des Betons bzw. Stahlbetons unter proportionalen sowie nichtproportionalen äußeren Belastungen erklärt und kritisch untersucht. In den frischen Beton wurden Stahlfasern hinzugegeben. Dadurch konnte die Festigkeits- und die Materialsteifigkeitsabminderung infolge Rissbildung, die zur Schädigung des Verbundwerkstoffs Beton führt, reduziert werden. Man konnte sehen, dass der Druckfestigkeitsabminderungsfaktor und insbesondere die zur maximal aufnehmbaren Zylinderdruckfestigkeit gehörende Stauchung, durch Zugabe von Stahlfasern besser begrenzt wird. Die experimentelle Untersuchungen wurden an sechs faserfreien und sieben stahlfaserverstärkten Stahlbetonscheiben unter Druck-Zugbelastung zur Bestimmung des Verhaltens des gerissenen faserfreien und stahlfaserverstärkten Stahlbetons durchgeführt. Die aus eigenen Versuchen ermittelten Materialeigenschaften des Betons, des stahlfaserverstärkten Betons und Stahlbetons im gerissenen Zustand wurden dargelegt und diskutiert. Bei der Rissbildung des quasi- spröden Werkstoffs Beton und dem stahlfaserverstärkten Beton wurde neben dem plastischen Fließen, auch die Abnahme des Elastizitätsmoduls festgestellt. Die Abminderung der aufnehmbaren Festigkeit und der zugehörigen Verzerrung lässt sich nicht mit der klassischen Fließtheorie der Plastizität ohne Modifizierung des Verfestigungsgesetzes erfassen. Es wurden auf elasto-plastischen Werkstoffmodellen basierende konstitutive Beziehungen für den faserfreien sowie den stahlfaserverstärkten Beton vorgeschlagen. Darüber hinaus wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit eine auf dem elasto-plastischen Werkstoffmodell basierende konstitutive Beziehung für Beton und den stahlfaser-verstärkten Beton im gerissenen Zustand formuliert. Die formulierten Werkstoffmodelle wurden mittels dem in einer modularen Form aufgebauten nichtlinearen Finite Elemente Programm DIANA zu numerischen Untersuchungen an ausgewählten experimentell untersuchten Flächentragwerken, wie scheibenartigen-, plattenartigen- und Schalentragwerken aus faserfreiem sowie stahlfaserverstärktem Beton verwendet. Das entwickelte elasto-plastische Modell ermöglichte durch eine modifizierte effektive Spannungs-Verzerrungs-Beziehung für das Verfestigungsmodell, nicht nur die Erfassung des plastischen Fließens sondern auch die Berücksichtigung der Schädigung der Elastizitätsmodule infolge Mikrorissen sowie Makrorissen im Hauptzugspannungs-Hauptdruckspannungs-Bereich. Es wurde bei den numerischen Untersuchungen zur Ermittlung des Last-Verformungsverhaltens von scheibenartigen, plattenartigen- und Schalentragwerken aus faserfreiem und stahlfaserverstärktem Stahlbeton, im Vergleich mit den aus Versuchen ermittelten Ergebnissen, eine gute Übereinstimmung festgestellt.

State-dependent volume isotope shifts of low-lying states of group-IIa and -IIb elements

Results of relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock calculations with an extended nucleus are used to analyze the volume isotope shifts of the resonance transitions in the group-IIa and -IIb elements as well as in Yb. This is done together with a review of the isotope shift theory, including a critical evaluation and comparison of the semiempirical calculation of volume isotope shifts commonly used today. Electronic factors F_i, proportional to differences of electronic densities over the nuclear volume, are discussed within various approximations and compared with experimental results.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.