The death of Osama bin Laden - the end of Al-Qaeda's Pan-Islamic ambition?

This paper evaluates the implications of Osama bin Ladin’s death for the future of al-Qaeda’s global jihad. It critically examines the debate as to the make-up of the group and identifies bin Ladin’s primary role as chief ideologue advocating a defensive jihad to liberate the umma. The rationale and appeal of bin Ladin’s message and Muslims’ reaction to both his statements and al-Qaeda’s increasing use of sectarian violence are assessed in the context of Pan-Islam as political ideology. The paper concludes that while the ideal of Islamic unity and the sentiment of Muslim solidarity are unlikely to vanish, al-Qaeda’s violent jihad has not only failed to achieve these goals but has worked against it, thereby confining it to the political margins.

Early detection of ovarian cancer in samples pre-diagnosis using CA125 and MALDI-MS peaks

Aim: A nested case-control discovery study was undertaken 10 test whether information within the serum peptidome can improve on the utility of CA125 for early ovarian cancer detection. Materials and Methods: High-throughput matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS) was used to profile 295 serum samples from women pre-dating their ovarian cancer diagnosis and from 585 matched control samples. Classification rules incorporating CA125 and MS peak intensities were tested for discriminating ability. Results: Two peaks were found which in combination with CA125 discriminated cases from controls up to 15 and 11 months before diagnosis, respectively, and earlier than using CA125 alone. One peak was identified as connective tissue-activating peptide III (CTAPIII), whilst the other was putatively identified as platelet factor 4 (PF4). ELISA data supported the down-regulation of PF4 in early cancer cases. Conclusion: Serum peptide information with CA125 improves lead time for early detection of ovarian cancer. The candidate markers are platelet-derived chemokines, suggesting a link between platelet function and tumour development.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Forward pricing and the housing market: the pre-sales housing system in Taiwan

In countries that have experienced rapid economic development, the need to establish more efficient markets in which private property can be constructed has induced some innovative solutions. One such solution is the phenomenon of a pre-sales market of the kind that can be observed in Taiwan, Korea, and more recently in China. Developers sell their property before building is started in order to acquire financing for the development companies. This paper discusses the process and, by recognising the analogy between the pre-sales market and forwards markets, analyses the implications for developers

Architecture, sedentism, and social complexity at Pre-Pottery Neolithic A WF16, Southern Jordan

Recent excavations at Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA) WF16 in southern Jordan have revealed remarkable evidence of architectural developments in the early Neolithic. This sheds light on both special purpose structures and “domestic” settlement, allowing fresh insights into the development of increasingly sedentary communities and the social systems they supported. The development of sedentary communities is a central part of the Neolithic process in Southwest Asia. Architecture and ideas of homes and households have been important to the debate, although there has also been considerable discussion on the role of communal buildings and the organization of early sedentarizing communities since the discovery of the tower at Jericho. Recently, the focus has been on either northern Levantine PPNA sites, such as Jerf el Ahmar, or the emergence of ritual buildings in the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B of the southern Levant. Much of the debate revolves around a division between what is interpreted as domestic space, contrasted with “special purpose” buildings. Our recent evidence allows a fresh examination of the nature of early Neolithic communities.

Pedosedimentary, cultural and environmental significance of palaeosols within Pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces in the southern Peruvian Andes

Paleosols were exposed in sections through four abandoned pre-Hispanic agricultural terraces surrounding an infilled mire basin in the southern Peruvian Andes. The two paleosols beneath the Tocotoccasa terrace represent the original ‘natural’ solum and a later soil formed after construction of the agricultural terrace, probably during the early Middle Horizon cultural period (615–695 AD). The soil at the current surface developed subsequent to the building up and reconstruction of the terrace, possibly during the late Late Intermediate period (1200–1400 AD). Micromorphology revealed an unexpected abundance of clay coatings within the upper terrace paleosol and surface terrace soil, a phenonemon attributed to the migration and/or accumulation of neoformed clay produced from the weathering of very unstable volcanic clasts, perhaps fuelled by arid/humid climatic oscillations and/or seasonal input of irrigation waters. The paleosols at Tocotoccasa could not be correlated with any degree of confidence with those beneath the other three terraces due to differences in pedosedimentary properties and uncertainties over chronological controls. Thus, it seems likely that either the terraces were (re)constructed and utilised over different cultural periods or that there is significant variation in the extent of weathering of material used for reconstruction of the terraces. Unfortunately, it cannot be ascertained from the data available whether the terraces were abandoned for any significant period of time prior to reconstruction and, if so, whether this was a regional phenomenon related to climate, social, or economic changes.

EEG activation differences in the pre-motor cortex and supplementary motor area between normal individuals with high and low traits of autism

The human mirror neuron system (hMNS) is believed to provide a basic mechanism for social cognition. Event-related desynchronization (ERD) in alpha (8–12 Hz) and low beta band (12–20 Hz) over sensori-motor cortex has been suggested to index mirror neurons' activity. We tested whether autistic traits revealed by high and low scores on the Autistic Quotient (AQ) in the normal population are linked to variations in the electroencephalogram (EEG) over motor, pre-motor cortex and supplementary motor area (SMA) during action observation. Results revealed that in the low AQ group, the pre-motor cortex and SMA were more active during hand action than static hand observation whereas in the high AQ group the same areas were active both during static and hand action observation. In fact participants with high traits of autism showed greater low beta ERD while observing the static hand than those with low traits and this low beta ERD was not significantly different when they watched hand actions. Over primary motor cortex, the classical alpha and low beta ERD during hand actions relative to static hand observation was found across all participants. These findings suggest that the observation–execution matching system works differently according to the degree of autism traits in the normal population and that this is differentiated in terms of the EEG according to scalp site and bandwidth.