STOCHASTIC CHARGE TRANSPORT IN MULTI-ISLAND SINGLE-ELECTRON TUNNELING DEVICES

The physics of the operation of singe-electron tunneling devices (SEDs) and singe-electron tunneling transistors (SETs), especially of those with multiple nanometer-sized islands, has remained poorly understood in spite of some intensive experimental and theoretical research. This computational study examines the current-voltage (IV) characteristics of multi-island single-electron devices using a newly developed multi-island transport simulator (MITS) that is based on semi-classical tunneling theory and kinetic Monte Carlo simulation. The dependence of device characteristics on physical device parameters is explored, and the physical mechanisms that lead to the Coulomb blockade (CB) and Coulomb staircase (CS) characteristics are proposed. Simulations using MITS demonstrate that the overall IV characteristics in a device with a random distribution of islands are a result of a complex interplay among those factors that affect the tunneling rates that are fixed a priori (e.g. island sizes, island separations, temperature, gate bias, etc.), and the evolving charge state of the system, which changes as the source-drain bias (VSD) is changed. With increasing VSD, a multi-island device has to overcome multiple discrete energy barriers (up-steps) before it reaches the threshold voltage (Vth). Beyond Vth, current flow is rate-limited by slow junctions, which leads to the CS structures in the IV characteristic. Each step in the CS is characterized by a unique distribution of island charges with an associated distribution of tunneling probabilities. MITS simulation studies done on one-dimensional (1D) disordered chains show that longer chains are better suited for switching applications as Vth increases with increasing chain length. They are also able to retain CS structures at higher temperatures better than shorter chains. In sufficiently disordered 2D systems, we demonstrate that there may exist a dominant conducting path (DCP) for conduction, which makes the 2D device behave as a quasi-1D device. The existence of a DCP is sensitive to the device structure, but is robust with respect to changes in temperature, gate bias, and VSD. A side gate in 1D and 2D systems can effectively control Vth. We argue that devices with smaller island sizes and narrower junctions may be better suited for practical applications, especially at room temperature.

Economic evaluation of varicella vaccination in Swiss children and adolescents

This study explores the effects of three different 2-dose varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccination strategies in Switzerland. The EVITA model was used to assess clinical benefits and costs of strategies (1) vaccination of 11-15 year old adolescents with a negative or uncertain history for chickenpox, (2) universal vaccination of toddlers at age 1 to 2 years, and (3) strategy 2 plus catch-up vaccination of 11-15 year old susceptible adolescents. The cost-effectiveness analysis compares strategies 2 and 3 versus strategy 1 (current vaccination policy in Switzerland). Probabilities for clinical outcomes and medical resource utilization were derived from a real-world survey among Swiss pediatricians and general practitioners including 236 individuals with VZV infection, published information on varicella complications, and expert opinion. Costs of medical resource utilization represent official Swiss medical tariffs. The model predicts both universal childhood vaccination strategies to be more effective in reducing varicella disease burden compared to strategy 1. Economically, both universal childhood vaccination strategies with or without catch-up result in net savings from the societal perspective reflected by a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 1.22 or 1.29, respectively. In contrast, the model predicts net costs from the payer perspective (BCR of 0.27 and 0.30, respectively). These economic findings are comparable to those reported from other similar evaluations. However, due to the recent recommendation for using a 2-dose varicella vaccination schedule, our economic results for Switzerland are somewhat less favorable than those for other country analyses in which a less expensive 1-dose vaccination regimen for toddlers has been studied.

BETASCAN: probable beta-amyloids identified by pairwise probabilistic analysis

Amyloids and prion proteins are clinically and biologically important beta-structures, whose supersecondary structures are difficult to determine by standard experimental or computational means. In addition, significant conformational heterogeneity is known or suspected to exist in many amyloid fibrils. Recent work has indicated the utility of pairwise probabilistic statistics in beta-structure prediction. We develop here a new strategy for beta-structure prediction, emphasizing the determination of beta-strands and pairs of beta-strands as fundamental units of beta-structure. Our program, BETASCAN, calculates likelihood scores for potential beta-strands and strand-pairs based on correlations observed in parallel beta-sheets. The program then determines the strands and pairs with the greatest local likelihood for all of the sequence's potential beta-structures. BETASCAN suggests multiple alternate folding patterns and assigns relative a priori probabilities based solely on amino acid sequence, probability tables, and pre-chosen parameters. The algorithm compares favorably with the results of previous algorithms (BETAPRO, PASTA, SALSA, TANGO, and Zyggregator) in beta-structure prediction and amyloid propensity prediction. Accurate prediction is demonstrated for experimentally determined amyloid beta-structures, for a set of known beta-aggregates, and for the parallel beta-strands of beta-helices, amyloid-like globular proteins. BETASCAN is able both to detect beta-strands with higher sensitivity and to detect the edges of beta-strands in a richly beta-like sequence. For two proteins (Abeta and Het-s), there exist multiple sets of experimental data implying contradictory structures; BETASCAN is able to detect each competing structure as a potential structure variant. The ability to correlate multiple alternate beta-structures to experiment opens the possibility of computational investigation of prion strains and structural heterogeneity of amyloid. BETASCAN is publicly accessible on the Web at http://betascan.csail.mit.edu.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Reinfection by untreated partners of people treated for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Reinfection after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae reduces the effect of control interventions. We explored the impact of delays in treatment of current partners on the expected probability of reinfection of index cases using a mathematical model. METHODS We used previously reported parameter distributions to calculate the probability that index cases would be reinfected by their untreated partners. We then assumed different delays between index case and partner treatment to calculate the probabilities of reinfection. RESULTS In the absence of partner treatment, the medians of the expected reinfection probabilities are 19.4% (IQR 9.2-31.6%) for C trachomatis and 12.5% (IQR 5.6-22.2%) for N gonorrhoeae. If all current partners receive treatment 3 days after the index case, the expected reinfection probabilities are 4.2% (IQR 2.1-6.9%) for C trachomatis and 5.5% (IQR 2.6-9.5%) for N gonorrhoeae. CONCLUSIONS Quicker partner referral and treatment can substantially reduce reinfection rates for C trachomatis and N gonorrhoeae by untreated partners. The formula we used to calculate reinfection rates can be used to inform the design of randomised controlled trials of novel partner notification technologies like accelerated partner therapy.

Unaltered oncological outcomes of radical cystectomy with extended lymphadenectomy over three decades

OBJECTIVE To evaluate oncological outcome trends over the last three decades in patients after radical cystectomy (RC) and extended pelvic lymph node (LN) dissection. PATIENTS AND METHODS Retrospective analysis of the University of Southern California (USC) RC cohort of patients (1488 patients) operated with intent to cure from 1980 to 2005 for biopsy confirmed muscle-invasive urothelial bladder cancer. To focus on outcomes of unexpected (cN0M0) LN-positive patients, the USC subset was extended with unexpected LN-positive patients from the University of Berne (UB) (combined subgroup 521 patients). Patients were grouped and compared according to decade of surgery (1980-1989/1990-1999/≥2000). Survival probabilities were calculated with Kaplan-Meier plots, log-rank tests compared outcomes according to decade of surgery, followed by multivariable verification. RESULTS The 10-year recurrence-free survival was 78-80% in patients with organ-confined, LN-negative disease, 53-60% in patients with extravesical, yet LN-negative disease and ≈30% in LN-positive patients. Although the number of patients receiving systemic chemotherapy increased, no survival improvement was noted in either the entire USC cohort, or in the combined LN-positive USC-UB cohort. In contrast, patient age at surgery increased progressively, suggesting a relative survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS Radical surgery remains the mainstay of therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Yet, our study reveals predictable outcomes but no survival improvement in patients undergoing RC over the last three decades. Any future survival improvements are likely to result from more effective systemic treatments and/or earlier detection of the disease.

Hierarchical segmentation-assisted multimodal registration for MR brain images

Information theory-based metric such as mutual information (MI) is widely used as similarity measurement for multimodal registration. Nevertheless, this metric may lead to matching ambiguity for non-rigid registration. Moreover, maximization of MI alone does not necessarily produce an optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a segmentation-assisted similarity metric based on point-wise mutual information (PMI). This similarity metric, termed SPMI, enhances the registration accuracy by considering tissue classification probabilities as prior information, which is generated from an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Diffeomorphic demons is then adopted as the registration model and is optimized in a hierarchical framework (H-SPMI) based on different levels of anatomical structure as prior knowledge. The proposed method is evaluated using Brainweb synthetic data and clinical fMRI images. Both qualitative and quantitative assessment were performed as well as a sensitivity analysis to the segmentation error. Compared to the pure intensity-based approaches which only maximize mutual information, we show that the proposed algorithm provides significantly better accuracy on both synthetic and clinical data.

A Hybrid Model for Multimodal Brain Tumor Segmentation

We present a fully automatic segmentation method for multi-modal brain tumor segmentation. The proposed generative-discriminative hybrid model generates initial tissue probabilities, which are used subsequently for enhancing the classi�cation and spatial regularization. The model has been evaluated on the BRATS2013 training set, which includes multimodal MRI images from patients with high- and low-grade gliomas. Our method is capable of segmenting the image into healthy (GM, WM, CSF) and pathological tissue (necrotic, enhancing and non-enhancing tumor, edema). We achieved state-of-the-art performance (Dice mean values of 0.69 and 0.8 for tumor subcompartments and complete tumor respectively) within a reasonable timeframe (4 to 15 minutes).

Survey estimation and marginal effects in Stata

Stata is a general purpose software package that has become popular among various disciplines such as epidemiology, economics, or social sciences. Users like Stata for its scientific approach, its robustness and reliability, and the ease with which its functionality can be extended by user written programs. In this talk I will first give a brief overview of the functionality of Stata and then discuss two specific features: survey estimation and predictive margins/marginal effects. Most surveys are based on complex samples that contain multiple sampling stages, are stratified or clustered, and feature unequal selection probabilities. Standard estimators can produce misleading results in such samples unless the peculiarities of the sampling plan are taken into account. Stata offers survey statistics for complex samples for a wide variety of estimators and supports several variance estimation procedures such as linearization, jackknife, and balanced repeated replication (see Kreuter and Valliant, 2007, Stata Journal 7: 1-21). In the talk I will illustrate these features using applied examples and I will also show how user written commands can be adapted to support complex samples. Complex can also be the models we fit to our data, making it difficult to interpret them, especially in case of nonlinear or non-additive models (Mood, 2010, European Sociological Review 26: 67-82). Stata provides a number of highly useful commands to make results of such models accessible by computing and displaying predictive margins and marginal effects. In my talk I will discuss these commands provide various examples demonstrating their use.

THEORETICAL STUDIES ON THE METHODS OF RECONSTRUCTING PHYLOGENETIC TREES FROM DNA SEQUENCE DATA (MOLECULAR EVOLUTION, HOMINOID EVOLUTION, COMPUTER SIMULATION)

(1) A mathematical theory for computing the probabilities of various nucleotide configurations is developed, and the probability of obtaining the correct phylogenetic tree (model tree) from sequence data is evaluated for six phylogenetic tree-making methods (UPGMA, distance Wagner method, transformed distance method, Fitch-Margoliash's method, maximum parsimony method, and compatibility method). The number of nucleotides (m*) necessary to obtain the correct tree with a probability of 95% is estimated with special reference to the human, chimpanzee, and gorilla divergence. m* is at least 4,200, but the availability of outgroup species greatly reduces m* for all methods except UPGMA. m* increases if transitions occur more frequently than transversions as in the case of mitochondrial DNA. (2) A new tree-making method called the neighbor-joining method is proposed. This method is applicable either for distance data or character state data. Computer simulation has shown that the neighbor-joining method is generally better than UPGMA, Farris' method, Li's method, and modified Farris method on recovering the true topology when distance data are used. A related method, the simultaneous partitioning method, is also discussed. (3) The maximum likelihood (ML) method for phylogeny reconstruction under the assumption of both constant and varying evolutionary rates is studied, and a new algorithm for obtaining the ML tree is presented. This method gives a tree similar to that obtained by UPGMA when constant evolutionary rate is assumed, whereas it gives a tree similar to that obtained by the maximum parsimony tree and the neighbor-joining method when varying evolutionary rate is assumed. ^

Three essays on prices and selection

Competitive Market Segmentation Abstract In a two-firm model where each firm sells a high-quality and a low-quality version of a product, customers differ with respect to their brand preferences and their attitudes towards quality. We show that the standard result of quality-independent markups crucially depends on the assumption that the customers' valuation of quality is identical across firms. Once we relax this assumption, competition across qualities leads to second-degree price discrimination. We find that markups on low-quality products are higher if consuming a low-quality product involves a firm-specific disutility. Likewise, markups on high-quality products are higher if consuming a high-quality product creates a firm-specific surplus. Selection upon Wage Posting Abstract We discuss a model of a job market where firms announce salaries. Thereupon, they decide through the evaluation of a productivity test whether to hire applicants. Candidates for a job are locked in once they have applied at a given employer. Hence, such a market exhibits a specific form of the bargain-then-ripoff principle. With a single firm, the outcome is efficient. Under competition, what might be called "positive selection" leads to market failure. Thus our model provides a rationale for very small employment probabilities in some sectors. Exclusivity Clauses: Enhancing Competition, Raising Prices Abstract In a setting where retailers and suppliers compete for each other by offering binding contracts, exclusivity clauses serve as a competitive device. As a result of these clauses, firms addressed by contracts only accept the most favorable deal. Thus the contract-issuing parties have to squeeze their final customers and transfer the surplus within the vertical supply chain. We elaborate to what extent the resulting allocation depends on the sequence of play and discuss the implications of a ban on exclusivity clauses.

Sonographic patterns of lung consolidation in mechanically ventilated patients with and without ventilator-associated pneumonia: A prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE Thoracic ultrasound (TUS) has been successfully used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia. Little is known about its diagnostic potential in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The purpose of this study was to systematically describe the morphology and temporal changes of sonographic patterns in mechanically ventilated patients and to evaluate the diagnostic performance characteristics of TUS-based VAP diagnoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients who were placed on invasive ventilation for reasons other than pneumonia and who were considered at risk for the development of VAP received daily TUS examinations while being closely monitored for the development of pneumonia. RESULTS Fifty-seven patients were studied. The incidence of VAP was 21.1%. Sonographic patterns of reduced or absent lung aeration were found in 64.2% of examinations. The sonographic pattern of lung consolidation with either dynamic or static air bronchograms was 100% sensitive and 60% specific for VAP in those patients who developed clinical signs and symptoms compatible with pneumonia. The pretest and posttest probabilities were 0.38 and 0.6, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Sonographic patterns of abnormal aeration are frequently observed in mechanically ventilated patients. If sonographic lung consolidation with either static or dynamic air bronchograms is absent, VAP is highly unlikely. The presence of these sonographic patterns in patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of pneumonia significantly increases the probability of VAP.