Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Dynamic behavior of Arabidopsis eif4a-iii, putative core protein of exon junction complex: fast relocation to nucleolus and splicing speckles under hypoxia

Here, we identify the Arabidopsis thaliana ortholog of the mammalian DEAD box helicase, eIF4A-III, the putative anchor protein of exon junction complex (EJC) on mRNA. Arabidopsis eIF4A-III interacts with an ortholog of the core EJC component, ALY/Ref, and colocalizes with other EJC components, such as Mago, Y14, and RNPS1, suggesting a similar function in EJC assembly to animal eIF4A-III. A green fluorescent protein (GFP)-eIF4A-III fusion protein showed localization to several subnuclear domains: to the nucleoplasm during normal growth and to the nucleolus and splicing speckles in response to hypoxia. Treatment with the respiratory inhibitor sodium azide produced an identical response to the hypoxia stress. Treatment with the proteasome inhibitor MG132 led to accumulation of GFP-eIF4A-III mainly in the nucleolus, suggesting that transition of eIF4A-III between subnuclear domains and/or accumulation in nuclear speckles is controlled by proteolysis-labile factors. As revealed by fluorescence recovery after photobleaching analysis, the nucleoplasmic fraction was highly mobile, while the speckles were the least mobile fractions, and the nucleolar fraction had an intermediate mobility. Sequestration of eIF4A-III into nuclear pools with different mobility is likely to reflect the transcriptional and mRNA processing state of the cell.

Genes related to sex steroids, neural growth, and social-emotional behavior are associated with autistic traits, empathy, and Asperger syndrome

Genetic studies of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) have mostly focused on the "low functioning" severe clinical subgroup, treating it as a rare disorder. However, ASC is now thought to be relatively common ( approximately 1%), and representing one end of a quasi-normal distribution of autistic traits in the general population. Here we report a study of common genetic variation in candidate genes associated with autistic traits and Asperger syndrome (AS). We tested single nucleotide polymorphisms in 68 candidate genes in three functional groups (sex steroid synthesis/transport, neural connectivity, and social-emotional responsivity) in two experiments. These were (a) an association study of relevant behavioral traits (the Empathy Quotient (EQ), the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ)) in a population sample (n=349); and (b) a case-control association study on a sample of people with AS, a "high-functioning" subgroup of ASC (n=174). 27 genes showed a nominally significant association with autistic traits and/or ASC diagnosis. Of these, 19 genes showed nominally significant association with AQ/EQ. In the sex steroid group, this included ESR2 and CYP11B1. In the neural connectivity group, this included HOXA1, NTRK1, and NLGN4X. In the socio-responsivity behavior group, this included MAOB, AVPR1B, and WFS1. Fourteen genes showed nominally significant association with AS. In the sex steroid group, this included CYP17A1 and CYP19A1. In the socio-emotional behavior group, this included OXT. Six genes were nominally associated in both experiments, providing a partial replication. Eleven genes survived family wise error rate (FWER) correction using permutations across both experiments, which is greater than would be expected by chance. CYP11B1 and NTRK1 emerged as significantly associated genes in both experiments, after FWER correction (P<0.05). This is the first candidate-gene association study of AS and of autistic traits. The most promising candidate genes require independent replication and fine mapping.

Cognitive-behavior therapy for compulsive checking in OCD

There is substantial evidence for the effectiveness of psychological treatments for OCD, and various approaches have been widely recommended. These approaches tend to be characterized by exposure and response prevention (ERP) and also tend to be applied equally to all forms of OCD. Patients/clients (and some therapists) often find ERP to be a difficult treatment, and both dropout and refusal rates are unacceptably high. Based on specific cognitive conceptualizations of different manifestations of OCD, new and refined cognitive treatment methods are now available. The present article describes a specific cognitively based approach to the treatment of compulsive checking.

Diet digestibility, rate of passage, and eating and rumination behavior of Jersey and Holstein cows

Diet digestibility and rate of passage, eating and rumination behavior, dry matter intake (DMI), and lactation performance were compared in 6 Jersey and 6 Holstein multiparous cows. Cows were fed gestation diets according to body weight (BW) beginning 7 wk before expected calving and ad libitum amounts of a lactation diet postpartum. Diet digestibility and rate of passage were measured in 5-d periods at wk 5 prepartum and wk 6 and 14 of lactation. Eating and ruminating behavior was measured over 5-d periods at wk 5 and 2 prepartum and wk 2, 6, 10, and 14 of lactation. Milk yield and DMI were higher in Holsteins, but milk energy output per kilogram of metabolic BW (BW0.75) and intake capacity (DMI/kg of BW) did not differ between breeds. Holsteins spent longer ruminating per day compared with Jerseys, but daily eating time did not differ between breeds. Jerseys spent more time eating and ruminating per unit of ingested feed. The duration and number of meals consumed did not differ between breeds, but the meals consumed by Jerseys were distributed more evenly throughout each 24-h period, providing a more regular supply of feed to the rumen. Feed passed through the digestive tract more quickly in Jerseys compared with Holsteins, suggesting particle breakdown and rumen outflow were faster in Jerseys, but this may also reflect the relative size of their digestive tract. Neutral detergent fiber digestibility was greater in Jerseys, despite the shorter rumen retention time, but digestibility of dry matter, organic matter, starch, and N did not differ between breeds. Utilization of digested N for tissue retention was higher at wk 5 prepartum and lower at wk 14 of lactation in Jerseys. In contrast to numerous published studies, intake capacity of Jerseys was not higher than that of Holsteins, but in the present study, cows were selected on the basis of equal expected milk energy yield per kilogram of metabolic BW. Digestibility of neutral detergent fiber and rate of digesta passage were higher in Jerseys, probably as a consequence of increased mastication per unit of feed consumed in Jerseys and their smaller size.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Effects of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of Encarsia formosa (Hymenoptera : Aphelinidae)

The parasitoid Encarsia formosa Gahan (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) has been used successfully for the control of Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae). The development of UV-blocking plastic films has added a new component to future integrated pest management systems by disrupting insect pest infestation when UV light is excluded. Because both T. vaporariorum and E. formosa are reported to have similar spectral efficiency, there was a need to identify the impact of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of both the pest and the natural enemy. In field studies, using choice-chamber experiments, E. formosa showed some preference to disperse into compartments where less UV light was blocked. However, further studies indicated that the effect was primarily attributable to the different light diffusion properties of the films tested. Thus, unlike its whitefly host, when the UV-absorbing properties of the films were similar, but the light diffusion properties differed, E.formosa adults preferred to disperse into compartments clad with films that had high light diffusion properties. When the plastic films differed most in their UV-absorbing capacity and had no light-diffusion capability, the initial dispersal of E. formosa between treatments was similar, although a small preference toward the environment with UV light was observed over time. When parasitoid dispersal was measured 3 h after release, more parasitoids were found on plants, suggesting that the parasitoids would search plants for whitefly hosts, even in a UV-blocked light environment. The potential for the integration of UV-blocking films with E. formosa in an advanced whitefly management system is discussed.

Mechanism of the antioxidant to pro-oxidant switch in the behavior of dehydroascorbate during LDL oxidation by copper(II) ions

Oxidised low density lipoprotein (LDL) may be involved in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. We have therefore investigated the mechanisms underlying the antioxidant/pro-oxidant behavior of dehydroascorbate, the oxidation product of ascorbic acid, toward LDL incubated With Cu2+ ions. By monitoring lipid peroxidation through the formation of conjugated dienes and lipid hydroperoxides, we show that the pro-oxidant activity of dehydroascorbate is critically dependent on the presence of lipid hydroperoxides, which accumulate during the early stages of oxidation. Using electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, we show that dehydroascorbate amplifies the generation of alkoxyl radicals during the interaction of copper ions with the model alkyl hydroperoxide, tert-butylhydroperoxide. Under continuous-flow conditions, a prominent doublet signal was detected, which we attribute to both the erythroascorbate and ascorbate free radicals. On this basis, we propose that the pro-oxidant activity of dehydroascorbate toward LDL is due to its known spontaneous interconversion to erythroascorbate and ascorbate, which reduce Cu2+ to Cu+ and thereby promote the decomposition of lipid hydroperoxides. Various mechanisms, including copper chelation and Cu+ oxidation, are suggested to underlie the antioxidant behavior of dehydroascorbate in LDL that is essentially free of lipid hydroperoxides. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extraction behavior of the synergistic system 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine and 2-bromodecanoic acid using Am and Eu as radioactive tracers

In this study, the extraction properties of a synergistic system consisting of 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine (BODO) and 2-bromodecanoic acid (HA) in tert-butyl benzene (TBB) have been investigated as a function of ionic strength by varying the nitrate ion and perchlorate ion concentrations. The influence of the hydrogen ion concentration has also been investigated. Distribution ratios between 0.03-12 and 0.003-0.8 have been found for Am(III) and Eu(HI), respectively, but there were no attempts to maximize these values. It has been shown that the distribution ratios decrease with increasing amounts of ClO4-, NO3-, and H+. The mechanisms, however, by which the decrease occurs, are different. In the case of increasing perchlorate ion concentration, the decrease in extraction is linear in a log-log plot of the distribution ratio vs. the ionic strength, while in the nitrate case the complexation between nitrate and Am or Eu increases at high nitrate ion concentrations and thereby decreases the distribution ratio in a non-linearway. The decrease in extraction could be caused by changes in activity coefficients that can be explained with specific ion interaction theory (SIT); shielding of the metal ions, and by nitrate complexation with Am and Eu as competing mechanism at high ionic strengths. The separation factor between Am and Eu reaches a maximum at similar to1 M nitrate ion concentration. Thereafter the values decrease with increasing nitrate ion concentrations.